Invest 94L and the Lesser Antilles

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 9:51 AM GMT on August 30, 2009

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Hi, this is Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Dr. Masters. The convection associated with Invest 94L has intensified, prompting the NHC to issue an early Tropical Weather Outlook to update the situation. Essentially, people in the Lesser Antilles need to start paying attention to the seas and skies. Looking at the computer track models, the set of model solutions are fairly similar to the Saturday model runs. A set of dynamical models (GFDL, HWRF, NOGAPS) runs to the NE of the Antilles, while the simpler models (LBAR, BAM family) are more easterly and take 94L over the Antilles. I do not ascribe any significance to the 00Z GFS track following the simpler models over the dynamical models. From my examination of the 00Z GFS run, it looks like the simulated 94L weakens too much, so the automatic vortex tracker picks up another vorticity feature. As for the future of 94L, there is a large area of large wind shear to it's north. It will need to keep it's track at WNW-W for intensification.

Update at 6AM EDT
I would be remiss if I didn't mention the major hurricane in the Eastern Pacific, Jimena At this time, Jimena has a satellite-estimated maximum wind speed of 115 mph, making it a Category 3 storm on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Jimena has an impressive presentation in satellite imagery with a large area of cold anvil cirrus in the center of the storm. The following microwave imagery indicate the formation of a relatively potent central eyewall, which is responsible for intensification.


Fig. 1 SSMI 85 GHz PCT at 0244Z Aug 30. Image courtesy of NRL.


People along the western coast of Mexico and along along the Baja need to pay close attention to this dangerous storm. I emphasize that using the current track and intensity forecast, Jimena will be a Category 4 storm when it approaches the tip of Baja and a Category 3 storm when it makes landfall up the coast.

It is worth noting that if Jimena follows the more easterly tracks presented in the computer track forecasts, the remnants of Jimena could impact NM and western Texas.


I'll update this entry further in response to 94L's development.


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Quoting aquak9:


So the easiest route is theft of another's thoughts?
forrest gump...
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2515
JIMENA winds are now 140mph




you bad bad bad boy you little X 93L
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1555. JLPR
well this got me a little worried

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
236 PM AST SUN AUG 30 2009

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW JUST NORTH OF PUERTO RICO THIS
AFTERNOON...WILL DRIFT SOUTH SOUTHWEST OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS AND
SETTLE OVER HISPANIOLA BY MONDAY EVENING. TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 46WEST
WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS DURING THE LATTER PART OF
THE WORK WEEK.
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 5223
1554. IKE
Quoting tornadodude:


but still, cmon, he shouldnt claim it as his own. and then he gets caught and doesnt even care!!


I wouldn't show my face around here again after that.

I may be wrong more than I'm right, but at least its' my own stupidity and I'm not copying someone else's work.
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I have a question please. What is diurnal-max and diurnal-min? Thanks in advance.
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Afternoon Storm. Didn't see ya sneak in. Hope you are having a lovely weekend. :)
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BTW, latest Jimena discussion.

000
WTPZ43 KNHC 302043
TCDEP3
HURRICANE JIMENA DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132009
200 PM PDT SUN AUG 30 2009

JIMENA CONTINUES TO HAVE A SMALL EYE EMBEDDED WITHIN A QUITE
SYMMETRIC CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. ON INFRARED IMAGES...THE EYE
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED SOMEWHAT...SUGGESTIVE OF ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK T-NUMBERS REMAIN AT T 6.0 FROM
BOTH AGENCIES BUT OBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS SUPPORT A STRONGER HURRICANE
...PRIMARILY BECAUSE OF THE WARMER EYE. THEREFORE THE NHC INTENSITY
ESTIMATE IS BOOSTED TO 120 KT. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
CERTAINLY A POSSIBILITY GIVEN THE WARM WATERS...LIGHT SHEAR...AND
MOIST TROPOSPHERE. HOWEVER...THE INTENSIFICATION PROCESS COULD ALSO
BE HALTED AT ANY TIME BY AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE. THE OFFICIAL
WIND SPEED FORECAST SHOWS ONLY A SLIGHT ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN
STRENGTH. BEGINNING AROUND 48 HOURS...THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW
INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW NEAR JIMENA. THE
RESULTING INCREASE IN SHEAR WILL PROBABLY LEAD TO A WEAKENING
TREND...AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. ALSO BEYOND
48 HOURS...THE INTENSITY OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE DEPENDENT
ON HOW MUCH IT INTERACTS WITH LAND.

THERE HAVE BEEN SOME TROCHOIDAL WOBBLES...TYPICAL OF THE MOVEMENT OF
INTENSE HURRICANES...BUT THE SMOOTHED INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS
ABOUT 295/07. THE FUTURE TRACK OF JIMENA SEEMS TO DEPEND LARGELY
UPON THE EVOLUTION OF TWO MAIN FACTORS...A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW
LOCATED NEAR THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND A MID-LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. AND NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. IF THE
LOW SHIFTS WESTWARD AND WEAKENS...IT WOULD ALLOW THE RIDGE TO BUILD
WESTWARD AND COULD CAUSE THE TRACK TO VEER WESTWARD AWAY FROM BAJA.
THAT APPEARS TO BE THE SCENARIO DEPICTED BY THE U.K. MET. OFFICE
AND ECMWF GLOBAL MODELS. HOWEVER...THOSE MODELS ARE THE WESTERN
OUTLIERS OF THE DYNAMICAL TRACK GUIDANCE. OTHER GUIDANCE SUCH AS
THE GFS...THE HWRF...AND THE GFDL INDICATE THAT THE MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE MOVEMENT OF THE
HURRICANE...SO THAT JIMENA WILL CONTINUE TO TURN TOWARD THE
RIGHT...AND MOVE NEAR OR OVER BAJA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS CLOSE TO THE MIDDLE OF THE MODEL
TRACKS.

INTERESTS IN WESTERN MAINLAND MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JIMENA. A HURRICANE WATCH
MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 30/2100Z 16.6N 106.8W 120 KT
12HR VT 31/0600Z 17.3N 107.7W 125 KT
24HR VT 31/1800Z 18.7N 108.7W 125 KT
36HR VT 01/0600Z 20.6N 110.0W 125 KT
48HR VT 01/1800Z 22.6N 110.8W 115 KT
72HR VT 02/1800Z 26.5N 112.5W 75 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 03/1800Z 28.0N 114.0W 50 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 04/1800Z 28.5N 115.0W 25 KT

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22725
1550. aquak9
Quoting palmbaywhoo:

hey some of us get through school by all nighters and some of us find easier routes.... to each his own lol


So the easiest route is theft of another's thoughts?
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Quoting RitaEvac:


I see said the blind man. Could get intersting in a very short period of time
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Quoting FloridaTigers:
Keep that up at FIU, WS and you'll be expelled.
And a difficult time with re-enty elsewhere...
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2515
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1546. mkmand
As the sun sets over 94L, it is strenghening righ in front of our eyes. I can see well defined newely formed thunderstorm bands wrapping around a common low.
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1545. sngalla
Quoting palmbaywhoo:

hey some of us get through school by all nighters and some of us find easier routes.... to each his own lol



There is NO excuse for stealing work from others!
Member Since: February 18, 2003 Posts: 57 Comments: 5363

Quoting brazocane:



Plagarism

Link


I would hope that WeatherStudent would recognize that he has committed a crime in plagiarism and performing such a crime would get him kicked out any class he's taking at FIU or possibly even expelled from the university. Just find it hilarious how he didn't even check his information either since its makes it blatantly obvious. I've lost any respect I had for WeatherStudent after this action.
Member Since: April 14, 2007 Posts: 8 Comments: 5169
Quoting palmbaywhoo:

hey some of us get through school by all nighters and some of us find easier routes.... to each his own lol


but still, cmon, he shouldnt claim it as his own. and then he gets caught and doesnt even care!!
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
Keep that up at FIU, WS and you'll be expelled.
Member Since: May 17, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 559
1540. aquak9
Quoting palmbaywhoo:
be nice to WS, he is prepping for college is all... WS if your interested, message me and i will give you some pointers on college writing


prepping for college includes blatant plagiarism?

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Quoting RitaEvac:
Lets it put it this way, something in the Gulf would happen first, before 94L were to get there
Which would then make 94L the Dreaded F Storm???

lol

I'm taking ur point abt Cuba and Florida seriously. The Bahamas is watching this too. It's pretty far out, but in a location from which many storms have affected the Wern Antilles/Bahamas/Florida over the decades.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22725
1538. IKE
Quoting centex:
proving my point?


True + it's also west of it. A high over 94L.
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Hi StormW, hope your bday was a good one. I have always appreciated the insight you have shared here since I joined in the craziness of the 2004/2005 seasons.

Back to Lurking Watching and Learning... :)
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 655
Quoting IKE:


He was claiming that was his work and he stole it from someone else.

hey some of us get through school by all nighters and some of us find easier routes.... to each his own lol
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1535. mkmand
94L has a very large ciculation. If it gets its act together, it'll be tough to dissipate.
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Quoting RitaEvac:


This is definitely looking interesting. Is this moving north or east?
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Quoting futurenavymet:
i wouldnt worry bout tx on this one. whatever that explosion off of tx is gonna block it.


I don't know what the timing is on 94l going north or west or wherever, but that explosion off of TX won't be there by the weekend. I've heard a lot of people talking about the high building back west But behind this trough theres a high that will be building back south and east. I don't know if they'll meet in the middle or still be split by the trough. That's why I don't see it as an east coast storm. I think either the trough will take it out to sea or the high will send it west. Just my two cents. Lol. But here's the NHC'S take on the current explosion...

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA
AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 1800 UTC...A SFC TROUGH IS ANALYZED OVER THE FAR WESTERN
GULF FROM 21N95W TO 23N96W TO 26N94W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120-150 NM E OF THE TROUGH. THIS
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.
A COLD FRONT IS ANALYZED FROM SW LOUISIANA TO ALONG THE NORTHERN
COAST TO ABOUT CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE INTO THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE GULF TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL
THEN REACH FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO FAR SOUTHERN TEXAS MON
MORNING THEN WILL REMAIN OVER THE N GULF WATERS TUE MORNING
WHILE BECOMING STATIONARY ONCE AGAIN. A LOW PRES MAY FORM ALONG
THE FRONT OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF TUE INTO WED.
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1531. ch2os
Hi ya StormW and good afternoon to you.
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Afternoon Storm! Great to see you! :)
Member Since: August 10, 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 672
Quoting brazocane:



Plagarism

Link


Are we surprised? Ugh.
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1528. centex
Quoting IKE:


proving my point?
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1527. IKE
Quoting palmbaywhoo:
be nice to WS, he is prepping for college is all... WS if your interested, message me and i will give you some pointers on college writing


He was claiming that was his work and he stole it from someone else.
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1525. KBH
the voice of wisdom has arrived!
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Quoting StormW:
Good afternoon?


Hi StormW.....what are your thoughts on 94l?
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1523. IKE
Quoting centex:
I thought shear is to the N.


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Hi Storm
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Quoting StormW:
Good aftenoon!

I see 94L is moving on track with the model guidance.

Good Afternoon StormW , I know you got to be kidding on this one :) , BTW what's your take on 94L this PM.
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Quoting StormW:
Good afternoon?


good afternoon Storm!
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
Its also worth noting 94L's a large system, that will help against its surrounding environment, and last I checked there was an anti-cyclone over 94L, which will help against the strong shear in front of the system.

This is a more western version of the 90L that became Bill IMO, so this will take a little longer to get its gear in order. I found it interesting though that the GFS has shifted into the Caribbean, that might be a sign of changes to come. However it could still shift right on back out to north of the Islands, so its to early to tell. If 94L though stays weak at a Strong TD or a weak TS, a much more western path is certainly possible.
Member Since: August 10, 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 672
1518. Grothar
I remember this quote from an English Literature course, do not remember the author.

"About the most originality that any writer can hope to achieve honestly is to steal with good judgment."
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27208
1517. JLPR
Quoting cyclonekid:
Hey Guys!!!

Would it be a stretch to say that at 11pm we have a TD in the ATL. And at some point Jimena can become a Category 5?


possible
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 5223
be nice to WS, he is prepping for college is all... WS if your interested, message me and i will give you some pointers on college writing
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Quoting Chicklit:
Good spot Brazocane (#1439).
He copied ED word for word, down to the misspelling of "aggressive."

lets give him credit, he did make a couple of changes. Ed's second word was "you've" and WS used "I've"; Ed finished with "cheers" and WS finished with "more to come tonight, thanks". Now even with those changes, yes, it is still plagiarism...hmmm, wonder how he got through school ? Do you think he knows that colleges and universities have a database to control plagiarism ?
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2515
wow, ok i just got back from watching Purdue's basketball practice, and by the looks of it, WS is in some deep crap, totally disgusted by that. well how is 94L looking?
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
Hey Guys!!!

Would it be a stretch to say that at 11pm we have a TD in the ATL. And at some point Jimena can become a Category 5?
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1511. centex
Quoting Twinkster:
ok i think everyone needs to listen this storm will maintain a wnw-nw track for the next couple of days if you look at water vapor imagery you can see the trough digging south and east which will induce a NW pull after that it is not even worth arguing where this will go. let me just put it this way if it gets into the eastern Caribbean it will be sheared apart before it even reaches the western Caribbean. right now the GOM is at the bottom of the list in terms of where 94L will go.
I thought shear is to the N.
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Hi All. What is the status on 94L?
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Hello all! I've been gone for the past few hours but I must say even though convection has decreased somewhat due to Diurnal effects, its defiantly tightening up.

Member Since: August 10, 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 672
Soon to be TD is picking up a beautiful moisture tap banding from the ITCZ. It can be seen clearly on the VIS loop.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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