Invest 94L and the Lesser Antilles

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 9:51 AM GMT on August 30, 2009

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Hi, this is Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Dr. Masters. The convection associated with Invest 94L has intensified, prompting the NHC to issue an early Tropical Weather Outlook to update the situation. Essentially, people in the Lesser Antilles need to start paying attention to the seas and skies. Looking at the computer track models, the set of model solutions are fairly similar to the Saturday model runs. A set of dynamical models (GFDL, HWRF, NOGAPS) runs to the NE of the Antilles, while the simpler models (LBAR, BAM family) are more easterly and take 94L over the Antilles. I do not ascribe any significance to the 00Z GFS track following the simpler models over the dynamical models. From my examination of the 00Z GFS run, it looks like the simulated 94L weakens too much, so the automatic vortex tracker picks up another vorticity feature. As for the future of 94L, there is a large area of large wind shear to it's north. It will need to keep it's track at WNW-W for intensification.

Update at 6AM EDT
I would be remiss if I didn't mention the major hurricane in the Eastern Pacific, Jimena At this time, Jimena has a satellite-estimated maximum wind speed of 115 mph, making it a Category 3 storm on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Jimena has an impressive presentation in satellite imagery with a large area of cold anvil cirrus in the center of the storm. The following microwave imagery indicate the formation of a relatively potent central eyewall, which is responsible for intensification.


Fig. 1 SSMI 85 GHz PCT at 0244Z Aug 30. Image courtesy of NRL.


People along the western coast of Mexico and along along the Baja need to pay close attention to this dangerous storm. I emphasize that using the current track and intensity forecast, Jimena will be a Category 4 storm when it approaches the tip of Baja and a Category 3 storm when it makes landfall up the coast.

It is worth noting that if Jimena follows the more easterly tracks presented in the computer track forecasts, the remnants of Jimena could impact NM and western Texas.


I'll update this entry further in response to 94L's development.


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Quoting HurricaneKyle:


Sunset is DMIN, sunrise is DMAX.
Quoting homelesswanderer:


I'll try. DMIN happens near sunset and usually when storms have least convection. DMAX happens around sunrise and is when storms get more convection. I think its because of the temperature diferences between the land an water. I think. ol


Thank you HurricaneKyle and Homelesswanderer!
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Is a yellow circle justified in the SW Caribbean if this convection continues tomorrow, I guess I'll have to ask the NHC.
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1606. Grothar
TO BAHAHURICAN

Something wrong with my keyboard in last message. I was asking what you thought of the feature in the gulf. Do you think it is a front or is something trying to get going? Images look impressive, but those colors can overdo sometimes.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 25956
It appears the only thing 94L is lacking is convection over the center.....which could conceivably form at any time. As soon as that occurs, we should have TD 6.
Member Since: June 29, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 5311
1604. Drakoen
Quoting TheDawnAwakening:
Extremely impressive outflow channels have developed with 94L and shows no signs of wind shear affecting it at this time. I will be back in an hour or so. I am going to college tomorrow for my second semester of my freshman year at Plymouth State University as an undecided major hinting towards meteorology as my major. It will be a long semester. I will keep updating on the tropical weather as much as I can. Tonight will be really the last real full night I can track this. 94L looks like a major hurricane in the making. Only problem looks to be development of central convection which is quite rare to be the only problem. The circulation looks to be now fully upright. Weakness in the ridge is starting to affect the invest right now. Upper level low is to the north of the invest creating a pulling scenario on the invest. Could still affect the NE portion of the Leeward Islands.


Agree.
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Quoting DestinJeff:
StormW - what's your thoughts on BBQ tri-tip? Should I slow burn for 4 hours, then dip ... or is that way off the mark?

And don't copy and paste a recipe from some website, either ....you'll get hung out to dry on here!

[sarcasm, all ... just thought you'd want a different question thrown your way ]
depends on the steering, will the ventilating smoke be lown off toward your neighbors ? If you cook them too long and the environment dries up they will dissipate and be gone :)
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will refer to JFVWS as "The Liar" henceforth...
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10480
Quoting NOVArules:
Honostly I think that 94l might be an east coast threat if it keeps going the way it is because the trough might be gone by that time, and since the high is on STEROIDS that will mean a more westerly track meaning it likely won't be a fish storm. However if i'm wrong I will happily eat roasted crow with honey mustard sauce and a hint of lemon and spincach.







That looks GREAT can you make some for me? Jimena is like a pitbull gone mad and aimed at the baja. edit: 94l too, i have a bad feeling about it too.
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1599. JLPR
94L is feeling d-min... a lot

Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 5223
Quoting aquak9:


So the easiest route is theft of another's thoughts?


First he steals JFV's thoughts now he is stealing someone elses.
I give up....
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 2146
Quoting TriniGirl26:


LOL i know...for the last 72 hours we probably had 10 mins of rain...and that was probably an hour ago...its hot here...
watch out for the crows lol
1596. Grothar
Quoting BahaHurican:
Jeez, Chick, I didn't think I needed to put my [sarcasm] [/sarcasm] markers on that..... Hey, I'm from the Caribbean! LOL

I was just poking fun at the person who was poking fun at the poster who was typing too fast and ended up with a sentence that sounded pretty much like a Caribbean English dialect/Creole instead of a more standard form .....

Anybody else who even suspected for a second I was serious with that, please perish the thought......


Hey there Baha, We all know you here. You are front or is something trying to get going? It looks impressive on the sat images.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 25956
Extremely impressive outflow channels have developed with 94L and shows no signs of wind shear affecting it at this time. I will be back in an hour or so. I am going to college tomorrow for my second semester of my freshman year at Plymouth State University as an undecided major hinting towards meteorology as my major. It will be a long semester. I will keep updating on the tropical weather as much as I can. Tonight will be really the last real full night I can track this. 94L looks like a major hurricane in the making. Only problem looks to be development of central convection which is quite rare to be the only problem. The circulation looks to be now fully upright. Weakness in the ridge is starting to affect the invest right now. Upper level low is to the north of the invest creating a pulling scenario on the invest. Could still affect the NE portion of the Leeward Islands.
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Quoting tornadodude:


yeah, no doubt, same here, i know im frequently wrong, but at least it is my work that i use, not someone else's, that was very stupid.


Late to bed and late to rise, use an avitar from the head and plagerize.
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Quoting hunkerdown:
come back ? It has not even gotten to you yet...


LOL i know...for the last 72 hours we probably had 10 mins of rain...and that was probably an hour ago...its hot here...
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Storm---What could we be looking at during the 5-day time frame? A turn back towards the west after the northwesterly motion? TIA.

WeatherStudent shall be banned for a long period of time for plagiarism, if not permanently banned. Never do you ever plagiarize....that could get you into legal trouble....let alone being banned from a blog.
Member Since: June 29, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 5311
Quoting aquak9:
Grothar- even a little re-wording would have helped. Chances are, if pressed, he couldn't even explain what he copy-n-pasted.
aquak9 - see post 1514
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Quoting NOVArules:


Will anyone answer my question please?


I'll try. DMIN happens near sunset and usually when storms have least convection. DMAX happens around sunrise and is when storms get more convection. I think its because of the temperature diferences between the land an water. I think. ol
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Quoting NOVArules:


Will anyone answer my question please?


Sunset is DMIN, sunrise is DMAX.
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Quoting StormW:
94L should move as I said yesterday about 290, possibly 295 degrees for at least the next 24-36 hours before a more NW motion...based on the 12Z steering layers forecast. The 00Z doesn't post until tomorrow morning.


How close are you thinking 94L will come to the islands
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Grothar,

Yet another reason why I love Google:

About the most originality that any writer can hope to achieve honestly is to steal with good judgment. Josh Billings US Humorist (1818 - 1885) ...
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21864
so, does anyone know what ever happened to MichaelSTL?
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8300
1583. aquak9
Grothar- even a little re-wording would have helped. Chances are, if pressed, he couldn't even explain what he copy-n-pasted.
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Quoting TriniGirl26:
The Rain Gone :(....Blue Skies :(....94L Come Back....
come back ? It has not even gotten to you yet...
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From the NOLA NWS Forecast Discussion (not my work, WS...the NWS did this):

.LONG TERM...

HEADING INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...ONE FEATURE TO BE NOTICED
IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF A POSSIBLE LOW ALONG THE OLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
BOTH THE NAM AND GFS DEPICT A WEAK SURFACE LOW FORMING...AND THEN
SLOWLY MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST TOWARD THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. GIVEN
THE TIME OF YEAR...THERE MAY BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR A WEAK TROPICAL
LOW TO TAKE HOLD.
HOWEVER...SEVERAL LIMITING FACTORS WILL BE IN
PLAY...INCLUDING DRY AIR FEEDING INTO THE SYSTEM AND A DECENT
AMOUNT OF SHEAR IN THE REGION. FORTUNATELY...THE REGION LOOKS TO
BE ON THE WESTERN OR DRIER SIDE OF THE SYSTEM FOR THE LATTER HALF
OF THE WEEK. AT MOST...SOME WRAP AROUND MOSITURE AND SHOWERS MAY
AFFECT COASTAL MISSISSIPPI ZONES ON THURSDAY.

THE LOW SHOULD BECOME SHEARED OUT BY FRIDAY...WITH THE DEEPEST
MOISTURE PULLING TO THE EAST TOWARD THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AS THIS
HAPPENS...A RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL SUMMER LIKE CONDITIONS IS
EXPECTED TO TAKE HOLD. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A WEAKENING OF
THE STRONG TROUGH DOMINATING THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE NATION BY
THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH SOME WEAK UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING TAKING HOLD BY SUNDAY.
WITH THIS PATTERN
DEVELOPING...NO LARGE SCALE FORCING MECANISMS ARE EXPECTED TO
INFLUENCE THE REGION. TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE PROFILES WILL
RETURN TO MORE NORMAL EXPECTATIONS...ALTHOUGH MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED...PUTTING A CAP ON SOME
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER THE WEEKEND. OVERALL...EXPECT ISOLATED
DIURNALLY INDUCED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...WITH DEVELOPMENT MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR NEAR SEABREEZE
BOUNDARIES OR REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM PREVIOUS CONVECTION.
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Quoting StormW:


Shear is the change in direction and/or speed with height.


hey whats ur thinking on track

Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Quoting cchsweatherman:



I would hope that WeatherStudent would recognize that he has committed a crime in plagiarism and performing such a crime would get him kicked out any class he's taking at FIU or possibly even expelled from the university. Just find it hilarious how he didn't even check his information either since its makes it blatantly obvious. I've lost any respect I had for WeatherStudent after this action.


You had respect for WS? I would seriously like to know how to have him banned for life. It really takes the fun out of this blog sometimes.
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The Rain Gone :(....Blue Skies :(....94L Come Back....
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1575. hydrus
Quoting NOVArules:
Honostly I think that 94l might be an east coast threat if it keeps going the way it is because the trough might be gone by that time, and since the high is on STEROIDS that will mean a more westerly track meaning it likely won't be a fish storm. However if i'm wrong I will happily eat roasted crow with honey mustard sauce and a hint of lemon and spincach.



Very well written Nova.If you have to,you can Google Diurnal Max and Min.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20896
Quoting Chicklit:
I know you are far too intelligent Baha to be serious.
If someone wants to post in Spanish on here to get information or exchange information, I have no problem with that, or Creole, or Portuguese for that matter. What happened to civility? This is the World Wide Web.
Speaking of crow, the issue reminds me of Jim Crow.
Jeez, Chick, I didn't think I needed to put my [sarcasm] [/sarcasm] markers on that..... Hey, I'm from the Caribbean! LOL

I was just poking fun at the person who was poking fun at the poster who was typing too fast and ended up with a sentence that sounded pretty much like a Caribbean English dialect/Creole instead of a more standard form .....

Anybody else who even suspected for a second I was serious with that, please perish the thought......
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21864
1572. centex
Storm, what you think about track of 94L. There has been lots post and no consensus on this blog. Models have not been helpful. What do you think is most important factor which will drive track? Intensity seems to be main factor, is there anything else?
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1571. Dakster
Quoting Acemmett90:

here come the admin police arrest him for plagerism
the wonderblog detectives lol


It's an FIU thing, apparently...
Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 10065
1570. KBH
Someone said earlier that shear = wind direction, if so then the wind direction in B'dos now seems to be shifting from the NE to the SE, which would make 94L got WNW?, in which case GFS model is way off base!
Member Since: August 28, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 278
Quoting NOVArules:
I have a question please. What is diurnal-max and diurnal-min? Thanks in advance.


Will anyone answer my question please?
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1567. Grothar
Quoting aquak9:


So the easiest route is theft of another's thoughts?


In case you missed it look at #1518.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 25956
Quoting TexasHurricane:


This is definitely looking interesting. Is this moving north or east?


Stationary
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Quoting Tazmanian:
JIMENA winds are now 140mph




you bad bad bad boy you little X 93L


haha yeah
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8300
Quoting StormW:
Good aftenoon!

I see 94L is moving on track with the model guidance.

Hi Storm:
Just in time, the boys are miss behaving again.
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I will say 1 good thing about a young blogger who plagarizes. There's lot's of trouble a 14-18 year old can get into. Plagarizing on a weather blog isn't all that serious, compared to so many other things.
.
.
It's a good thing for any of our younger bloggers to be here at all...it shows a genuine interest in a science. They have time to refine the edges. In the meantime it's a sign of intelligence and/or curiousity to be here at all.
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Quoting IKE:


I wouldn't show my face around her again after that.

I may be wrong more than I'm right, but at least its' my own stupidity and I'm not copying someone else's work.


yeah, no doubt, same here, i know im frequently wrong, but at least it is my work that i use, not someone else's, that was very stupid.
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8300
Good afternoon yall. Whats with the big blob thing in the Gulf? I am assuming thats from Jimena (considering its connected to it...) but is there any worries for it doing what Claudette did? Just making sure another Allison doesn't randomly appear.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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