Invest 94L and the Lesser Antilles

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 9:51 AM GMT on August 30, 2009

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Hi, this is Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Dr. Masters. The convection associated with Invest 94L has intensified, prompting the NHC to issue an early Tropical Weather Outlook to update the situation. Essentially, people in the Lesser Antilles need to start paying attention to the seas and skies. Looking at the computer track models, the set of model solutions are fairly similar to the Saturday model runs. A set of dynamical models (GFDL, HWRF, NOGAPS) runs to the NE of the Antilles, while the simpler models (LBAR, BAM family) are more easterly and take 94L over the Antilles. I do not ascribe any significance to the 00Z GFS track following the simpler models over the dynamical models. From my examination of the 00Z GFS run, it looks like the simulated 94L weakens too much, so the automatic vortex tracker picks up another vorticity feature. As for the future of 94L, there is a large area of large wind shear to it's north. It will need to keep it's track at WNW-W for intensification.

Update at 6AM EDT
I would be remiss if I didn't mention the major hurricane in the Eastern Pacific, Jimena At this time, Jimena has a satellite-estimated maximum wind speed of 115 mph, making it a Category 3 storm on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Jimena has an impressive presentation in satellite imagery with a large area of cold anvil cirrus in the center of the storm. The following microwave imagery indicate the formation of a relatively potent central eyewall, which is responsible for intensification.


Fig. 1 SSMI 85 GHz PCT at 0244Z Aug 30. Image courtesy of NRL.


People along the western coast of Mexico and along along the Baja need to pay close attention to this dangerous storm. I emphasize that using the current track and intensity forecast, Jimena will be a Category 4 storm when it approaches the tip of Baja and a Category 3 storm when it makes landfall up the coast.

It is worth noting that if Jimena follows the more easterly tracks presented in the computer track forecasts, the remnants of Jimena could impact NM and western Texas.


I'll update this entry further in response to 94L's development.


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the only way he is at FIU is as a custodian...that avatar is him in a bathroom he's cleaning...
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10492
1653. Dakster
Quoting ssmate:


Link? no wait....scratch that.


Sorry, the link is too long to post...
Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 10811
Quoting 7544:
94l growing larger in size today imo a td could be froming as we blog



I concur.....but lets wait for some central convection to form, then we should see a new TD born.
Member Since: June 29, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 5315
1651. LightningCharmer
9:19 PM GMT on August 30, 2009
Quoting aquak9:


prepping for college includes blatant plagiarism?

Interesting link from FIU, a class on plagiarism.



Member Since: September 1, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1344
1650. IKE
9:19 PM GMT on August 30, 2009
I don't care what WS says. He's on my ignore list.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
1648. ssmate
9:18 PM GMT on August 30, 2009
Quoting Dakster:


Why thank you.


Link? no wait....scratch that.
Member Since: July 17, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 347
1647. Hhunter
9:18 PM GMT on August 30, 2009
Member Since: August 19, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 2974
1646. JLPR
9:18 PM GMT on August 30, 2009
Quoting Dakster:


Why thank you.


lol
that's so wrong xD
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 5223
1645. Dakster
9:18 PM GMT on August 30, 2009
Quoting FloridaTigers:


I don't know, I heard murder is the UM thing :|

94L seems to be tightening up. Jimena up to 140 MPH.


Getting murdered, not committing it. In 2008 the most dangerous activity in the State of Florida was UM Football Player.
Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 10811
1644. jaxairportman
9:17 PM GMT on August 30, 2009
Quoting presslord:
will refer to JFVWS as "The Liar" henceforth...
YES! JFV is like our forever freak of the blog. Who needs a soap opra with all the laughts he has given us over the years. I wonder if he got banned as WS,what would he think of as his new handle and avitor.
1643. 7544
9:17 PM GMT on August 30, 2009
94l growing larger in size today imo a td could be froming as we blog

computer models are holding it to the islands
Member Since: May 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6874
1642. futurenavymet
9:16 PM GMT on August 30, 2009
its moving nw guys.
1641. Dakster
9:16 PM GMT on August 30, 2009
Quoting JLPR:


its huge!


Why thank you.
Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 10811
1640. tornadodude
9:16 PM GMT on August 30, 2009
Quoting WeatherStudent:


You've got some nerve there, Ike! A quick FYI: As we Cubans would say, ''Desencarnate de mi ya'' OK? Geeze.


you've got some nerve by plagiarizing on here, and thinking we are all dumb enough not to notice
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
1638. AllStar17
9:15 PM GMT on August 30, 2009
Quoting Weather456:
Antilleans on guard



VERY large cloud canopy. Once, or if, this develops....it will be a very large tropical system.
Member Since: June 29, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 5315
1637. cyclonekid
9:15 PM GMT on August 30, 2009
Looking more and more like a TD or TS. (IMO)
Member Since: July 14, 2009 Posts: 51 Comments: 1731
1636. centex
9:15 PM GMT on August 30, 2009
Quoting StormW:


Well, maybe this will help...in fact those who would like to follow along, I will go over a basic method I use for steering...sort of Tropical Metetorology 101. I f you go to the following site, look at the lower and middle set of maps. This is shallow and mid layer steering, respectively. Look up near the Bahamas and up toward GA/SC. You'll see where the ridge turns NE as the trof comes east. Take th current position of 94L. Right now, it's being steered by the shallow layer (bottom maps). Once it reachs strong TD or TS, it get steered by the mid layer (middle maps). Given the current position of 94L, look at how the flow is basically E-W or a little toward the WSW...that is the flow it's embedded in. Now, look where the "weakness" is near the Bahamas. 94L will begin to feel the effects of that, wanting to try and head for it....so basically, using compass directions, figure out in degrees the flow it's in (260-270), then a compass directon towrd the weakness. Add those two together and divide by two. What do you come up with?
Ok, but the debate is when the various steering layers will matter. If 94L does not become weak TD until 36 to 48 hours wouldn't it enter carribean? But if it spins up toghight or in morning will go much further N.
Member Since: August 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3293
1635. presslord
9:15 PM GMT on August 30, 2009
Quoting WeatherStudent:


You've got some nerve there, Ike! A quick FYI: As we Cubans would say, ''Desencarnate de mi ya'' OK? Geeze.


let's see...you're The Liar...but IKE has "some nerve"...go away, bug...
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10492
1634. Grothar
9:15 PM GMT on August 30, 2009
Quoting aquak9:
Grothar- even a little re-wording would have helped. Chances are, if pressed, he couldn't even explain what he copy-n-pasted.


True. Cruel! But true, nonetheless. Glad you weren't one of my professors. What a shame the points to which one is forced to gain attention.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27210
1633. brohavwx
9:15 PM GMT on August 30, 2009
Don't forget that the wind direction (not shear) in Barbados is still be influenced a bit by the back end of the T.Wave that passed us yesterday.

I expect the wind to shift more northerly, in response to 94L's approach, by later tonight or early in the morning.

However, with regard to 94L I note it has slowed quite some and the center of circulation may be making a jog NW but (again) slowly. Anyone else note this?

Latest GFS model has it passing right over us here in Barbados in 48 hours ... I've always valued the GFS in the past, especially when you have a system struggling (or not doing what everyone expects it to do) like 94L but I understand that the newer HWRF model has been quite good too and that carries it to the NW.

I suppose the next 12-24 hours will tell.
Member Since: June 3, 2002 Posts: 0 Comments: 64
1632. AllStar17
9:14 PM GMT on August 30, 2009
I am sorry about the graphics I have been making. I know most of you like them. I am slacking....but my computer, the one with the graphics on it, is being used for the time being. I am on an alternate one...and will use graphics I made from last year (but never posted. FYI -- I was not on this blog last season, but read it very often.) . It'll take some time to spruce 'em up...but something is better than nothing. I have Microsoft Office 2007 on my computer, and only '03 on the computer I am using :(
Member Since: June 29, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 5315
1631. JLPR
9:14 PM GMT on August 30, 2009
Quoting Weather456:
Antilleans on guard



its huge!
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 5223
1630. mobilegirl81
9:14 PM GMT on August 30, 2009
It looks like the clouds to the north of 94L are beginning to get pancaked like the high is pressing down on her and WOW at the amount of moisture in the gulf and developing in the carribean.
Member Since: August 31, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 833
1629. Dakster
9:14 PM GMT on August 30, 2009
You can go ahed and ban "the liar", but I am sure he will return with a different handle and an equally silly avatar...

I bet for his MET class he copies StormW's synopsis and turns it in as his own...
Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 10811
1628. WeatherCaneFF1331
9:13 PM GMT on August 30, 2009
Link
Member Since: June 28, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 32
1627. TriniGirl26
9:14 PM GMT on August 30, 2009
Quoting Weather456:
Antilleans on guard



Yeah :) Camera Battery Charging...Don't Know what i will get at the dead of night but.....
Member Since: August 18, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 201
1625. druseljic
9:13 PM GMT on August 30, 2009
Several folks here have made comments about the GOM. Are conditions setting up that something may develop there? I know the SST's are pretty warm now and the height of the season is just around the corner. And thanks in advance for any insight :-) !
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 655
1624. FloridaTigers
9:13 PM GMT on August 30, 2009
Quoting Dakster:


It's an FIU thing, apparently...


I don't know, I heard murder is the UM thing :|

94L seems to be tightening up. Jimena up to 140 MPH.
Member Since: May 17, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 559
1622. Cavin Rawlins
9:12 PM GMT on August 30, 2009
Antilleans on guard

Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
1621. JLPR
9:12 PM GMT on August 30, 2009
Quoting AllStar17:
It appears the only thing 94L is lacking is convection over the center.....which could conceivably form at any time. As soon as that occurs, we should have TD 6.


I agree
it seems to have great features, the only thing missing is deep convection
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 5223
1619. JupiterFL
9:11 PM GMT on August 30, 2009
Quoting TheDawnAwakening:
Extremely impressive outflow channels have developed with 94L and shows no signs of wind shear affecting it at this time. I will be back in an hour or so. I am going to college tomorrow for my second semester of my freshman year at Plymouth State University as an undecided major hinting towards meteorology as my major. It will be a long semester. I will keep updating on the tropical weather as much as I can. Tonight will be really the last real full night I can track this. 94L looks like a major hurricane in the making. Only problem looks to be development of central convection which is quite rare to be the only problem. The circulation looks to be now fully upright. Weakness in the ridge is starting to affect the invest right now. Upper level low is to the north of the invest creating a pulling scenario on the invest. Could still affect the NE portion of the Leeward Islands.


Good luck in school...
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 2146
1618. AllStar17
9:11 PM GMT on August 30, 2009
WeatherStudent shall be banned for a long period of time for plagiarism, if not permanently banned. Never do you ever plagiarize....that could get you into legal trouble....let alone being banned from a blog.
Member Since: June 29, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 5315
1617. aquak9
9:10 PM GMT on August 30, 2009
hey anybody got a recipe for that crow they can copy-n-paste here?

Jupiter, geeez how do we always end up in posting when this kinda stuff is going on, hahaha..

Hunkerdown- ok, so he simply became more possessive of someone else's thoughts. Then he does not have the ()() to hang around, cause he KNOWS he's gonna get busted.

Permanent ban...we should be so lucky.
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 178 Comments: 26675
1616. Cavin Rawlins
9:10 PM GMT on August 30, 2009
Quoting AllStar17:
It appears the only thing 94L is lacking is convection over the center.....which could conceivably form at any time. As soon as that occurs, we should have TD 6.


correct, something that can easily develop as it did last night
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
1614. Sfloridacat5
9:10 PM GMT on August 30, 2009
Quoting StormW:


Well, maybe this will help...in fact those who would like to follow along, I will go over a basic method I use for steering...sort of Tropical Metetorology 101. I f you go to the following site, look at the lower and middle set of maps. This is shallow and mid layer steering, respectively. Look up near the Bahamas and up toward GA/SC. You'll see where the ridge turns NE as the trof comes east. Take th current position of 94L. Right now, it's being steered by the shallow layer (bottom maps). Once it reachs strong TD or TS, it get steered by the mid layer (middle maps). Given the current position of 94L, look at how the flow is basically E-W or a little toward the WSW...that is the flow it's embedded in. Now, look where the "weakness" is near the Bahamas. 94L will begin to feel the effects of that, wanting to try and head for it....so basically, using compass directions, figure out in degrees the flow it's in (260-270), then a compass directon towrd the weakness. Add those two together and divide by two. What do you come up with?


You ever think about becoming a teacher? You have a good way of explaining things.
Member Since: September 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 9397
1613. Dakster
9:09 PM GMT on August 30, 2009
'Ave a look at 94L, seems ter be orgaqnizin' itself quite well. Cor blimey guv! 'Ave a looks like it will be large storm.


Is that better? We can all talk in cockney if you like?
Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 10811
1612. hunkerdown
9:08 PM GMT on August 30, 2009
Quoting winter123:




That looks GREAT can you make some for me? Jimena is like a pitbull gone mad and aimed at the baja.
it os much better if you pluck it first...and a well made crow does not need the lime.
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2515
1611. LightningCharmer
9:08 PM GMT on August 30, 2009
Quoting IKE:


I wouldn't show my face around here again after that.

I may be wrong more than I'm right, but at least its' my own stupidity and I'm not copying someone else's work.
Well said.
Member Since: September 1, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1344
1610. AllStar17
9:08 PM GMT on August 30, 2009
TheDawnAwakening--

Good luck this semester. PSU in NH?
Member Since: June 29, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 5315
1608. NOVArules
9:07 PM GMT on August 30, 2009
Quoting HurricaneKyle:


Sunset is DMIN, sunrise is DMAX.
Quoting homelesswanderer:


I'll try. DMIN happens near sunset and usually when storms have least convection. DMAX happens around sunrise and is when storms get more convection. I think its because of the temperature diferences between the land an water. I think. ol


Thank you HurricaneKyle and Homelesswanderer!
Member Since: August 26, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 178

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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