Invest 94L and the Lesser Antilles

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 9:51 AM GMT on August 30, 2009

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Hi, this is Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Dr. Masters. The convection associated with Invest 94L has intensified, prompting the NHC to issue an early Tropical Weather Outlook to update the situation. Essentially, people in the Lesser Antilles need to start paying attention to the seas and skies. Looking at the computer track models, the set of model solutions are fairly similar to the Saturday model runs. A set of dynamical models (GFDL, HWRF, NOGAPS) runs to the NE of the Antilles, while the simpler models (LBAR, BAM family) are more easterly and take 94L over the Antilles. I do not ascribe any significance to the 00Z GFS track following the simpler models over the dynamical models. From my examination of the 00Z GFS run, it looks like the simulated 94L weakens too much, so the automatic vortex tracker picks up another vorticity feature. As for the future of 94L, there is a large area of large wind shear to it's north. It will need to keep it's track at WNW-W for intensification.

Update at 6AM EDT
I would be remiss if I didn't mention the major hurricane in the Eastern Pacific, Jimena At this time, Jimena has a satellite-estimated maximum wind speed of 115 mph, making it a Category 3 storm on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Jimena has an impressive presentation in satellite imagery with a large area of cold anvil cirrus in the center of the storm. The following microwave imagery indicate the formation of a relatively potent central eyewall, which is responsible for intensification.


Fig. 1 SSMI 85 GHz PCT at 0244Z Aug 30. Image courtesy of NRL.


People along the western coast of Mexico and along along the Baja need to pay close attention to this dangerous storm. I emphasize that using the current track and intensity forecast, Jimena will be a Category 4 storm when it approaches the tip of Baja and a Category 3 storm when it makes landfall up the coast.

It is worth noting that if Jimena follows the more easterly tracks presented in the computer track forecasts, the remnants of Jimena could impact NM and western Texas.


I'll update this entry further in response to 94L's development.


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1708. sngalla
Quoting Centella:
Vamos a ver,WS:

¿Hasta cuándo vas a estar haciendo el ridículo en este blog? Ten un poco de vergüenza y aprende a comportarte como un hombre.
Por cierto..tu español es tan malo como tu inglés.


Well said! Lol!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I cant help to comment on the WS issue
own up, put your head down, take the lashing, and move forward
enough with the ugly
Jimena has a wonderful look
I beleive I noticed a comment stating 140M winds
Verification anyone
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting tornadodude:


why was he banned?


Cant answer that, I left for my last year school in late July 2008. i returned late April 2009.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
1704. JLPR
Centella

ouch lol xD
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 5223
Quoting WeatherStudent:
Alright, all, I sincerely apologies for stealing somebody elses work and utilizing it as my own. I'll never do that ever again, I've learned my lesson, ladies and gents.


i accept, look im a weather student in college too, just please use your head, thanks
-Matt
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8201
MichaelSTL
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Quoting WeatherStudent:
Alright, all, I sincerely apologies for stealing somebody elses work and utilizing it as my own. I'll never do that ever again, I've learned my lesson, ladies and gents.
that what you should have done and thank you
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
StormW,

Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
1699. Hhunter
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Quoting Weather456:
StormW,

I will pist a graphic shortly and tell me what you think, its about the Northern leewards.


Man I wish I could have pist a graphic when I just went.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 2146
1697. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting DestinJeff:


where have I seen that?
its on my blog from the bloggers code of ethics
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1696. Dakster
Good evening Chucktown. We've been talking about 94L and the potential track.
Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 10034
1695. edmac
StormW, if Iam reading the maps right, then the stronger 94l gets, the more the chance at this going into the gulf, or the east coast. am I right, or not looking at that right.
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Vamos a ver,WS:

¿Hasta cuándo vas a estar haciendo el ridículo en este blog? Ten un poco de vergüenza y aprende a comportarte como un hombre.
Por cierto..tu español es tan malo como tu inglés.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Chucktown:
Evening Press. Gettin ready for the big 6 PM broadcast (unless golf goes late). I normally don't go out on a limb with any of my forecasts, but we may have to watch 94 very closely. The current front that is going to keep our weather here in the Lowcountry very wet for the first half of the week will most likely "pull" 94 up just enough before the ridge builds back in late next week. Its all timing and strength with 94 and the ridging of course, but this is the type of setup that sent Floyd and Hugo our way. At this point, I don't think 94 will get that strong, but the steering is setting up that way.


great heads up...thanks
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10479
1691. IKE
Quoting futuremet:
I don't care what WS says. He's on my ignore list.

Technically not, since everyone quote him.


True, but me asking people to not quote him is useless since not everyone that doesn't have him on ignore is on here at the same time.


Quoting Grothar:


Without a doubt! What do you think of 94L or the feature in the Gulf. They are both getting to look better in each frame.


I think 94L has a ways to go. Looks like DMIN has affected him. Like the NHC says on their last discussion, it looks elongated.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting druseljic:
Ok, from a lurker...was JFV's avatar him in a tux? Seem to remember him but not sure since I normally try to just watch and ingest what is said here.


Yes.
If you google JFV Wunderground, you will find his old pic.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 2146
Good Evening!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Evening Press. Gettin ready for the big 6 PM broadcast (unless golf goes late). I normally don't go out on a limb with any of my forecasts, but we may have to watch 94 very closely. The current front that is going to keep our weather here in the Lowcountry very wet for the first half of the week will most likely "pull" 94 up just enough before the ridge builds back in late next week. Its all timing and strength with 94 and the ridging of course, but this is the type of setup that sent Floyd and Hugo our way. At this point, I don't think 94 will get that strong, but the steering is setting up that way.
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Quoting Weather456:


to another site. He was banned from WU.


why was he banned?
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8201
1685. JLPR
Quoting IKE:


He got banned, last year, I think.


aww gonna miss the Global warming discussions lol xD
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 5223


The TPW graphic is always my favorite...

You can see how the broad circulation is now becoming tighter and separated from the ITCZ. I also am noting a WNW bend as well.

Also notice Jimena spinning out of frame on the left side and Danny making the extratropical transition when it gets plowed by the trough.
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Quoting WeatherStudent:
Do not make me re-ban you, viejo dicrepito.
would you stop giving cubans a bad reputation and get back to watching 94L
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1680. Hhunter
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Quoting StormW:


It shouldn't. If you go to those maps I

It shouldn't. If you look at these maps, and scroll over the times in the upper left, this will put the maps in motion. The shallow and mid layer steering is pretty much identical.

PSU e-WALL
that looks more like a frances doesnt it stormw?
StormW,

I will post a graphic shortly and tell me what you think, its about the Northern leewards.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
1675. KBH
Bro, I hear what you are saying but don't see it. GFS is out on this one, the other models seem to be better aligned
Member Since: August 28, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 278
1674. Hhunter
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Quoting WeatherStudent:
Do not make me re-ban you, viejo dicrepito.


Plagiarism is a crime.
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1672. IKE
Quoting tornadodude:
anyone know where michaelSTL went?


He got banned, last year, I think.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
1671. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)

WS SOME ADVICE
Attribution

I will not plagiarize material, nor quote without attribution.

I will respect other people's copyrights and not post without the copyright holder's permission, except when abiding by the terms of "fair use" (generally small excerpts for journalistic purposes).
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting tornadodude:
anyone know where michaelSTL went?


to another site. He was banned from WU.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Hi trinigal26, how are you? I am also in Trinidad. I am in Diego Martin. You said the rain stopped? Although Diego usually has a lot of rain, it did not rain much in our neck of the woods, only a drizzle. Where in Trinidad are you situated and what are your thoughts on 94L as it relates to us trinis?
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Quoting CosmicEvents:
I will say 1 good thing about a young blogger who plagarizes. There's lot's of trouble a 14-18 year old can get into. Plagarizing on a weather blog isn't all that serious, compared to so many other things.
.
.
It's a good thing for any of our younger bloggers to be here at all...it shows a genuine interest in a science. They have time to refine the edges. In the meantime it's a sign of intelligence and/or curiousity to be here at all.
This is all true. However, young people need to be encouraged to be more willing to take positive risks rather than practice negative behaviours - i. e. theft of intellectual property. Unfortunately the amount of teasing this guy has received on the blog doesn't encourage that kind of risk taking. Additionally, plaigarizing can be either the start of or a sign of a deeper problem with honesty and recognizing lines of demarcation between "mine" and "yours". So it could be more serious than it first appears.

Finally, WeatherStudent purports himself to be a college student. Such students can get themselves into SERIOUS hot water by plaigarizing. Someone said earlier that they don't feel they are expert enough to opine, so they question / observe. There's nothing wrong with that. If WS wants to start expressing his own ideas without being ridiculed by some of the sillier bloggers, maybe he should try writng his own blog and inviting pple to read. Others have done so, and it has benefitted them. If he wants to learn to write this way by commenting in the main blog, he needs to be able to "take the heat". Whichever one of these avenues he chooses, he is more likely to gain the respect - if not the liking - of other bloggers IF he is willing to post his own words. Few people respect either a thief or a braggart.

Just my opinion. Sorry if I "mash your corn" in the process of expression.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21530
1666. Grothar
Quoting IKE:


I don't care what WS says. He's on my ignore list.


Without a doubt! What do you think of 94L or the feature in the Gulf. They are both getting to look better in each frame.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25392
I don't care what WS says. He's on my ignore list.

Technically not, since everyone quote him.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Weather456:
I use to like WeatherStudent, stood up with him till the end. He is good kid and the only problem I have is that he wants a hurricane hit where he lives.

WeatherStudent has probably fell victim to the same thing that almost kill Britney Spears and Linsey Lohan - popularization. When i came back, every minute someone posted something about WeatherStudent.

I remember him as JFV over the past 3 hurricane season and its sad to see what has happen.

His only cure will be to experience a cat 3 so he will learn why he will never want one to hit again.
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1663. JLPR
Quoting WeatherStudent:
Do not make me re-ban you, viejo dicrepito.


dicrepito is with an e decrepito

dont use spanish to insult other members

...thank you
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 5223
1662. hydrus
Quoting Dakster:
You can go ahed and ban "the liar", but I am sure he will return with a different handle and an equally silly avatar...

I bet for his MET class he copies StormW's synopsis and turns it in as his own...
lol.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20520
anyone know where michaelSTL went?
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8201
Quoting WeatherStudent:


You've got some nerve there, Ike! A quick FYI: As we Cubans would say, ''Desencarnate de mi ya'' OK? Geeze.


You've got nerve plagiarizing others. As we Cubans would say "Usted está lleno de nada. "
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Ok, from a lurker...was JFV's avatar him in a tux? Seem to remember him but not sure since I normally try to just watch and ingest what is said here.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
the only way he is at FIU is as a custodian...that avatar is him in a bathroom he's cleaning...
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10479

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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