Invest 94L and the Lesser Antilles

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 9:51 AM GMT on August 30, 2009

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Hi, this is Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Dr. Masters. The convection associated with Invest 94L has intensified, prompting the NHC to issue an early Tropical Weather Outlook to update the situation. Essentially, people in the Lesser Antilles need to start paying attention to the seas and skies. Looking at the computer track models, the set of model solutions are fairly similar to the Saturday model runs. A set of dynamical models (GFDL, HWRF, NOGAPS) runs to the NE of the Antilles, while the simpler models (LBAR, BAM family) are more easterly and take 94L over the Antilles. I do not ascribe any significance to the 00Z GFS track following the simpler models over the dynamical models. From my examination of the 00Z GFS run, it looks like the simulated 94L weakens too much, so the automatic vortex tracker picks up another vorticity feature. As for the future of 94L, there is a large area of large wind shear to it's north. It will need to keep it's track at WNW-W for intensification.

Update at 6AM EDT
I would be remiss if I didn't mention the major hurricane in the Eastern Pacific, Jimena At this time, Jimena has a satellite-estimated maximum wind speed of 115 mph, making it a Category 3 storm on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Jimena has an impressive presentation in satellite imagery with a large area of cold anvil cirrus in the center of the storm. The following microwave imagery indicate the formation of a relatively potent central eyewall, which is responsible for intensification.


Fig. 1 SSMI 85 GHz PCT at 0244Z Aug 30. Image courtesy of NRL.


People along the western coast of Mexico and along along the Baja need to pay close attention to this dangerous storm. I emphasize that using the current track and intensity forecast, Jimena will be a Category 4 storm when it approaches the tip of Baja and a Category 3 storm when it makes landfall up the coast.

It is worth noting that if Jimena follows the more easterly tracks presented in the computer track forecasts, the remnants of Jimena could impact NM and western Texas.


I'll update this entry further in response to 94L's development.


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I asked this earlier today, but the two had just come out. thus, my question was overlooked. how do you change profile picture?
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Quoting StormW:


It's been my experience over the years that I never rule anything out. Could be a Bill or Danny track...but we'll ave to look at steering over the next couple of days tosee if there are any major changes. It's still kinda low in latitude.

CIRA satellite position had the center at 11.8N;46.3W at 1200Z. At 1800Z it was located at 12.N;47.5W


you got mail storm
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1756. b4dirt
How to take a quick Look!
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/tpw2/natl/main.html

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1754. Dakster
Hey Baha - I got a good name for WS... We can call him Marty Cohen from now on, in honor of the spanish word that sounds the same.
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DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
30/1745 UTC 11.9N 47.5W T1.5/1.5 94L
30/1145 UTC 11.9N 46.1W T1.5/1.5 94L

Please corect me if I am incorrect. With a COC showing I thought at T2.0 it would be named. With a continued reading of T1.5 why did it not get a number at 5:00 EDT?
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Quoting Dakster:


Getting murdered, not committing it. In 2008 the most dangerous activity in the State of Florida was UM Football Player.
didnt ray lewis go to tha U?
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Quoting Dakster:


Cono...
Coño!
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Quoting Drakoen:


Agree.
agree. Good luck kid, with your studies , you will be a great meteorologist , im sure.
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1747. Dakster
Quoting BahaHurican:
A lo cubano, debe que tener los c*j*nes que escribir con sus propios palabras y no simplemente copiar de otra persona. Escribela en espanol si tiene que hacerlo, pero escribela su mismo. Los cubanos que cononzco tienen c*j*nes, no miedo. Como dice Manolito, "respeta".


Cono...
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Before darkness sets in this is a very nice view of 94L...

Link
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 655
1745. JLPR
Quoting HurricaneKyle:


That was the reason he got banned..


apparently he got a little carried away in one and he ended up banned, he was a nice guy but he had a short temper when talking about GM =P
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 5223
1744. Hhunter
Link

buoy
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Quoting WeatherStudent:


You've got some nerve there, Ike! A quick FYI: As we Cubans would say, ''Desencarnate de mi ya'' OK? Geeze.
A lo cubano, debe que tener los c*j*nes que escribir con sus propios palabras y no simplemente copiar de otra persona. Escribela en espanol si tiene que hacerlo, pero escribela su mismo. Los cubanos que cononzco tienen c*j*nes, no miedo. Como dice Manolito, "respeta".
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21885
1742. lennit
12z ECMWF turns 94 West after the islands
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1741. Hhunter


closest buoy i could find to 94L
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Quoting JLPR:


aww gonna miss the Global warming discussions lol xD


That was the reason he got banned..
Member Since: August 10, 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 672
Quoting WeatherStudent:
Alright, all, I sincerely apologies for stealing somebody elses work and utilizing it as my own. I'll never do that ever again, I've learned my lesson, ladies and gents.


You should apologize to the person whose work you claimed as your own.
Member Since: April 14, 2007 Posts: 8 Comments: 5169
Quoting hydrus:
It is a little odd that the emblem for FIU reads (College For Education),when colleges are used for that very purpose.Like there is someone out there that does not know what college is for.
There are many colleges in the university. The College of Education, College of Arts and Science, etc.
Member Since: May 17, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 559
Hi StormW.....is there concern for the Gulf with the large mass out there?
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Quoting WeatherStudent:


Thank you for that, I wasn't aware of that.


YOU AREN'T AWARE OF ANYTHING YOU FRAUD.
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1734. Dakster
At this point Storwm, I am assuming that you are not ruling anything out? With the greatest possibility of a Bill type track?
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Quoting WeatherStudent:
Thanks all


youre welcome, just be smart, ok?
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8301
Quoting hurricanejunky:


You had respect for WS? I would seriously like to know how to have him banned for life. It really takes the fun out of this blog sometimes.


It may be surprising, but yes I did have respect for JFV/Presidential Election/WeatherStudent for his persistence in staying on the blogs and not changing his ways despite the constant criticisms and absurd ridicule he has absorbed in the past few years here on the Wunderground blog. Hell, I have tried to help him time and time again so that he could possibly earn respect from bloggers here, but it seems it has all been for naught.

Now with this egregious action of plagiarism and being completely ignorant regarding his actions, I no longer respect him since there is no excuse for blatantly cheating or cheating someone else. I cannot stand cheaters and I hope he recognizes that this is a crime he has committed and if he performed such an act in a term paper at FIU, he could face possible expulsion.
Member Since: April 14, 2007 Posts: 8 Comments: 5169
Can anyone lend any insight to what effects the MJO might be having on the current tropics? (Atlantic and Pacific)
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 655
1730. 7544
getting back to 94l it looks to be a quite large system trhat takes up to 12 to 14 degrress of moisture so when this does form it could cover a large area
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1729. Hhunter


starting to see feeder bands trending inward from sw and from ne on 94l
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Quoting StormW:
456,
Regarding post 1700 (graphic), 94L should pass somewhat south and west of Bill's position.



ok Thanks
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Quoting Weather456:


lol lol I do make some idiotic typos.


We all do. It gives me some really good ammunition.
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1723. hydrus
Quoting LightningCharmer:
Interesting link from FIU.



It is a little odd that the emblem for FIU reads (College For Education),when colleges are used for that very purpose.Like there is someone out there that does not know what college is for.
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Quoting Weather456:


I know he use to debate alot of GW topics so maybe he got in a quarrel with someone. Just guesses tho.

alright, thanks anyway, so im guessing no one else on here is from indiana?
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8301
Quoting Weather456:
StormW,

I will pist a graphic shortly and tell me what you think, its about the Northern leewards.
I plee the fifth, in the long halt at least...
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2515
94L looking a lot better structurally wise since this morning.
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Quoting tornadodude:


oh ok, thanks anyway, i was curious because he was pretty much the only person on here who lived relatively close to me


I know he use to debate alot of GW topics so maybe he got in a quarrel with someone. Just guesses tho.
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Quoting Weather456:


Cant answer that, I left for my last year school in late July 2008. i returned late April 2009.


oh ok, thanks anyway, i was curious because he was pretty much the only person on here who lived relatively close to me
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8301
Quoting Grothar:
TO BAHAHURICAN

Something wrong with my keyboard in last message. I was asking what you thought of the feature in the gulf. Do you think it is a front or is something trying to get going? Images look impressive, but those colors can overdo sometimes.
I think someone was saying there's some kind of trough / front trailing into the GOM, but I think a lot of the blowup is being stimuated because of Jimena's outflow which is moving across the region. IMO it just illustrates how much "fuel" there is in the GOM for a speedy intensification of whatever happens to get in there.

I don't think this is a serious area for investigation right now, but that could change....
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21885
1713. Grothar
Quoting JupiterFL:


Man I wish I could have pist a graphic when I just went.


Hey Jupiter,

See you are up to it again with that wit.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 25995
Quoting JupiterFL:


Man I wish I could have pist a graphic when I just went.


lol lol I do make some idiotic typos.
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Quoting futuremet:
MichaelSTL


do you know why?
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8301
1708. sngalla
Quoting Centella:
Vamos a ver,WS:

¿Hasta cuándo vas a estar haciendo el ridículo en este blog? Ten un poco de vergüenza y aprende a comportarte como un hombre.
Por cierto..tu español es tan malo como tu inglés.


Well said! Lol!
Member Since: February 18, 2003 Posts: 57 Comments: 5363

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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.