Invest 94L and the Lesser Antilles

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 9:51 AM GMT on August 30, 2009

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Hi, this is Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Dr. Masters. The convection associated with Invest 94L has intensified, prompting the NHC to issue an early Tropical Weather Outlook to update the situation. Essentially, people in the Lesser Antilles need to start paying attention to the seas and skies. Looking at the computer track models, the set of model solutions are fairly similar to the Saturday model runs. A set of dynamical models (GFDL, HWRF, NOGAPS) runs to the NE of the Antilles, while the simpler models (LBAR, BAM family) are more easterly and take 94L over the Antilles. I do not ascribe any significance to the 00Z GFS track following the simpler models over the dynamical models. From my examination of the 00Z GFS run, it looks like the simulated 94L weakens too much, so the automatic vortex tracker picks up another vorticity feature. As for the future of 94L, there is a large area of large wind shear to it's north. It will need to keep it's track at WNW-W for intensification.

Update at 6AM EDT
I would be remiss if I didn't mention the major hurricane in the Eastern Pacific, Jimena At this time, Jimena has a satellite-estimated maximum wind speed of 115 mph, making it a Category 3 storm on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Jimena has an impressive presentation in satellite imagery with a large area of cold anvil cirrus in the center of the storm. The following microwave imagery indicate the formation of a relatively potent central eyewall, which is responsible for intensification.


Fig. 1 SSMI 85 GHz PCT at 0244Z Aug 30. Image courtesy of NRL.


People along the western coast of Mexico and along along the Baja need to pay close attention to this dangerous storm. I emphasize that using the current track and intensity forecast, Jimena will be a Category 4 storm when it approaches the tip of Baja and a Category 3 storm when it makes landfall up the coast.

It is worth noting that if Jimena follows the more easterly tracks presented in the computer track forecasts, the remnants of Jimena could impact NM and western Texas.


I'll update this entry further in response to 94L's development.


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Quoting Tazmanian:
guys this is a weather blog not a Spanish blog



take the Spanish talk too your own blog



we now take you back too 94L

LOL
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Yo tengo un lenguaje secreto!
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1806. Hhunter
Quoting Grothar:
So long for a while guys. The blog is getting a little off topic for now. I must work on a paper for a lecture I am giving. If I am unable to find something suitable on my own, I shall look up something by H.L. Mencken. He wrote some decent material. I may just use it.


lol
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That GFS model looks nearly impossible. How would it turn pretty much north within a day or so?
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Quoting pipelines:
I can't believe no one is talking about Jimena, it just turned into a major cane from first forming into a depression in about 24 hours , not only that but it actually has a PIN HOLE EYE! that so many on here like to exclaim on every other developing storm.


Is it the first pinhole eye storm since Wilma?
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Quoting pipelines:
I can't believe no one is talking about Jimena, it just turned into a major cane from first forming into a depression in about 24 hours , not only that but it actually has a PIN HOLE EYE! that so many on here like to exclaim on every other developing storm.
yes this could really help out Texas and its drought when it gets there.
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1801. Grothar
So long for a while guys. The blog is getting a little off topic for now. I must work on a paper for a lecture I am giving. If I am unable to find something suitable on my own, I shall look up something by H.L. Mencken. He wrote some decent material. I may just use it.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26865
1800. Dakster
Quoting WeatherStudent:
My bad, Taz. On that note, all, I'm off to the mess-hall. I'll be back on later on tonight. Bye, all!!! :)
'

Yet, another lie. What "Mess Hall" would that be?
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1798. Hhunter
Link

buoy that is in the path of 94l..a couple of degrees north of where i place the rough center.

note pressure trend is falling winds out of the north north east
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1797. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #22
Severe Tropical Storm Krovanh (T0911)
6:00 AM JST August 31 2009
=========================================

Subject: Category Two Typhoon In Sea East Of Japan

At 21:00 PM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Krovanh (975 hPa) located at 33.1N 139.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 60 knots with gusts of 85 knots. The storm is reported as moving north-northwest at 10 knots.

RSMC Dvorak Intensity:

Storm-Force Winds
================
40 NM from the center

Gale-Force Winds
================
180 NM from the center in northeastern quadrant
120 NM from the center in southwestern quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
======================
24 HRS: 38.4N 142.3E - 55 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm)
45 HRS: 43.3N 150.1E - EXTRATROPICAL
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Where does everyone think 94L is headed to?
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94L moving WNW, should be affecting the northern Antilles in 48 to 72 hours.
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Quoting StormW:


I should be back about 8:30-8:45 this evening...I'll take a look at the big picture at that time.


Thank you...........enjoy dinner!
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1793. JLPR
Quoting Tazmanian:
guys this is a weather blog not a Spanish blog



take the Spanish talk too your own blog



we now take you back too 94L


taz that is not nice
weather is the same in English and Spanish

but if the conversation is off topic then I understand you
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 5223
1791. IKE
18Z GFS @ 42 hours.....

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
Quoting truecajun:


oh well. it's not important. i was just ready for a change.


change you can believe in lol
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1789. flsky
Quoting futuremet:
MichaelSTL


Hi Futuremet. Got any good words for us today?
Member Since: October 24, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2047
SHIPS says the environment is pretty favorable around 94L...giving a 40% chance for a RI of 25kts in 24 hours.
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Quoting Dakster:


Yes, but it is more for my wife than me. I use a PC... I know there is a Control Key combo for it.
oh, ok
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I can't believe no one is talking about Jimena, it just turned into a major cane from first forming into a depression in about 24 hours , not only that but it actually has a PIN HOLE EYE! that so many on here like to exclaim on every other developing storm.
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1783. Dakster
Quoting canesrule1:
do u have a mac?


Yes, but it is more for my wife than me. I use a PC... I know there is a Control Key combo for it.
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Quoting truecajun:
I asked this earlier today, but the two had just come out. thus, my question was overlooked. how do you change profile picture?


Link

Be sure to check Primary Portrait for Bio
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 11274
Quoting tornadodude:


good quote, and im really not sure how to change the picture, sorry :/


oh well. it's not important. i was just ready for a change.
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Quoting sngalla:



Report me all you like. I did nothing wrong.


Lo vas a reporta o a REPORTAR ?
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IMO, 94L might become a TD at 11pm or 5am. I give it a 60-80% chance of becoming a TD by tommorow and a 90% chance of it becoming a TD. I give it a 40-60% of becoming named.
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1778. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency

Severe Tropical Storm Krovanh
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #21
=========================================

Subject: Category Two Typhoon In Sea East Of Japan

At 3:00 AM JST, Severe Tropical Storm Krovanh (980 hPa) located at 32.7N 140.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 55 knots with gusts of 80 knots. The storm is reported as moving north-northwest at 9 knots.

RSMC Dvorak Intensity: T3.5

Storm-Force Winds
================
30 NM from the center

Gale-Force Winds
================
180 NM from the center in northeastern quadrant
120 NM from the center in southwestern quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
======================
24 HRS: 37.9N 141.8E - 55 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm)
48 HRS: 43.3N 150.1E - EXTRATROPICAL

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Disturbance Summary
=========================================
At 3:00 AM JST, Tropical Depression "CP022009" (1008 hPa) located at 15.0N 175.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 40 knots and is reported as moving west at 10 knots.

System #2
----------

At 3:00 AM JST, Low Pressure Area (1004 hPa) located at 18.0N 136.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 15-20 knots and is reported as moving west slowly
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guys this is a weather blog not a Spanish blog



take the Spanish talk too your own blog



we now take you back too 94L
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Quoting truecajun:
oh, i have a good quote for y'all. it was on the cap of my honest tea at Whole Foods today.

"In all things of nature, there is something of the marvelous." --Aristotle

so true.


good quote, and im really not sure how to change the picture, sorry :/
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94L has a big signature but has lost some of its deep convection in recent hours, BUT I think this is just a phase and tonight it will wind itself up pretty tight and be a T.S. by morning.

Direction though is the killer question. Its seems to be jogging N-NW but I guess the center will end up being where the heaviest convection is.

There is something pushing at it from the NE, is that a mid-level (500 MB) High forming.

This could be interesting.
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oh, i have a good quote for y'all. it was on the cap of my honest tea at Whole Foods today.

"In all things of nature, there is something of the marvelous." --Aristotle

so true.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1772. Hhunter
Station 41041
NDBC
Location: 14.357N 46.008W
Conditions as of:
Sun, 30 Aug 2009 20:50:00 UTC
Winds: S (180°) at 17.5 kt gusting to 19.4 kt
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.84 in and rising
Air Temperature: 80.8 F
Water Temperature: 80.6 F
View Details - View History


we have south wind a couple of degrees behind where i would estimate the general center of 94l
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1771. sngalla
Quoting WeatherStudent:


Te voy a reporta, canalla.



Report me all you like. I did nothing wrong.
Member Since: February 18, 2003 Posts: 57 Comments: 5363
Quoting Dakster:


Hey, you found the 'ñ'. I don't have a keyboard with it.
do u have a mac?
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Quoting ttweathergirl:
Hi trinigal26, how are you? I am also in Trinidad. I am in Diego Martin. You said the rain stopped? Although Diego usually has a lot of rain, it did not rain much in our neck of the woods, only a drizzle. Where in Trinidad are you situated and what are your thoughts on 94L as it relates to us trinis?


Hi ttweathergirl, i am from chaguanas. Whenever the north have rain, central and south normally have sun and vice versa. i work in Port of Spain though and i am familiar with the rains up that side. i think 94L is too close to the islands not to affect them.(that going to be a very sharp North turn if it does turn) But we are lucky in the sense we wont have to deal with a Hurricane or a Tropical Storm. But i still expect we will be dealing with damages and flooding.
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Quoting MelbourneTom:
DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
30/1745 UTC 11.9N 47.5W T1.5/1.5 94L
30/1145 UTC 11.9N 46.1W T1.5/1.5 94L

Please corect me if I am incorrect. With a COC showing I thought at T2.0 it would be named. With a continued reading of T1.5 why did it not get a number at 5:00 EDT?


Although 1.5 is good enough for TD status, they usually wait for 2.0 to name it, 2.5 is TS status.
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Quoting WeatherStudent:


Te voy a reporta, canalla.


You can't even speak Spanish...How does it feel to be a FRAUD?

te voy a REPORTAR idiota
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1762. Dakster
Quoting canesrule1:
Coño!


Hey, you found the 'ñ'. I don't have a keyboard with it.
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1761. flsky
Quoting futurenavymet:


you got mail storm


Thank you for doing "other than weather blog" stuff in the appropriate place.
Member Since: October 24, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2047
Quoting WeatherStudent:


Te voy a reporta, canalla.
Cálmate, no hay necesidad de volverse loco.
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1759. Relix
I have 94L's center at

12.8N
47.6W

Am I close?
Member Since: August 3, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2741
I asked this earlier today, but the two had just come out. thus, my question was overlooked. how do you change profile picture?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.