Invest 94L and the Lesser Antilles

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 9:51 AM GMT on August 30, 2009

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Hi, this is Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Dr. Masters. The convection associated with Invest 94L has intensified, prompting the NHC to issue an early Tropical Weather Outlook to update the situation. Essentially, people in the Lesser Antilles need to start paying attention to the seas and skies. Looking at the computer track models, the set of model solutions are fairly similar to the Saturday model runs. A set of dynamical models (GFDL, HWRF, NOGAPS) runs to the NE of the Antilles, while the simpler models (LBAR, BAM family) are more easterly and take 94L over the Antilles. I do not ascribe any significance to the 00Z GFS track following the simpler models over the dynamical models. From my examination of the 00Z GFS run, it looks like the simulated 94L weakens too much, so the automatic vortex tracker picks up another vorticity feature. As for the future of 94L, there is a large area of large wind shear to it's north. It will need to keep it's track at WNW-W for intensification.

Update at 6AM EDT
I would be remiss if I didn't mention the major hurricane in the Eastern Pacific, Jimena At this time, Jimena has a satellite-estimated maximum wind speed of 115 mph, making it a Category 3 storm on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Jimena has an impressive presentation in satellite imagery with a large area of cold anvil cirrus in the center of the storm. The following microwave imagery indicate the formation of a relatively potent central eyewall, which is responsible for intensification.


Fig. 1 SSMI 85 GHz PCT at 0244Z Aug 30. Image courtesy of NRL.


People along the western coast of Mexico and along along the Baja need to pay close attention to this dangerous storm. I emphasize that using the current track and intensity forecast, Jimena will be a Category 4 storm when it approaches the tip of Baja and a Category 3 storm when it makes landfall up the coast.

It is worth noting that if Jimena follows the more easterly tracks presented in the computer track forecasts, the remnants of Jimena could impact NM and western Texas.


I'll update this entry further in response to 94L's development.


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3155. xoverau
My thoughts are with you, George. Do whatever you have to do to protect yourself, and do let us know you're okay after the storm passes.
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3154. JLPR
I will say Hello Pre TD 6

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Question is their any image of Hurricane Alicia's(1983)rare double eye feature?
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3148. JLPR
Quoting btwntx08:
jlpr take a look at this link similar to urs but it updates every 15-20 minutes and the most recent 515 utc Link


nice thanks
94L keeps looking better and the convection keeps expending
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3144. msphar
I'm currently in Northern Nevada near Lake Tahoe. But my interests are many, and some of them lie in Tropical areas. Calif has been baking lately. I saw Arnie on the TV tonight complaining that the fire choppers couldn't see the fire due to the smoke and not enough wind to blow it out of the way. While we here a bit further North are having quite a bit of wind today.
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TWO is out. Still red as expected.
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Quoting serialteg:


Did you see the Georges youtube I posted some posts back? It's really nice...



Got some turning over there for a while now in TPW



yes i greee wtih you
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Hello local weather east coast central Fl. palm bay,Melbourne..lots lighting..rain just passed..storm just off coast..lighting still BAD.If you are near Palm bay or Melbourne STAY IN DOORS...
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Quoting GeorgefromLosCabos:
This is so scary, I mean, a lot of pressure knowing that a Hurricane almost cat 5 is comming to my way and being alone, far away from my family, I couldn't go to Los Cabos to stay with them so I must be here in La Paz alone while the hurricane will get closer... tomorrow i'll go buy all the necesary, right now I'm working hard in a website about weather and earthquakes and we have a lot of traffic in there, right now, so is kind of stressfull, I did't eat since yesterday night.. maybe I should relax for a moment 'coz tomorrow will be worst.

what a big deal with Jimena. U_U


George - I wish you well. Jimena isn't anything to mess with. Be safe.
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Quoting msphar:
Not much chance for rain in So Cal. Its a long shot. Weather usually moves into Cal from the NW with occasional assist from Pinapple Express's coming up from the Hawaiian area.


Are you in So. Cal? There does look to be an ULL? headed for the west coast. And unfortunately loks like Jimena rides up the Baja coast. :( I don't see how So.Cal wouldn't get rain from her. Hope that doesn't get too bad for anyone. Scary situation out there.

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3134. JLPR
I found a better one
xD and 94L is looking much better
I tell you 94L loves blackout lol

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3133. JLPR
Quoting btwntx08:

there u go lol i was about to put that link but u figured it out good job!


im aware of eumetsat's existence but I don't like their imagery =P

but there is nothing else so it will have to do
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3132. msphar
Not much chance for rain in So Cal. Its a long shot. Weather usually moves into Cal from the NW with occasional assist from Pinapple Express's coming up from the Hawaiian area.
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Quoting gecko:
General question. The NAM model for cont. U.S. doesn't do a good job at all of picking up Jimena. I was curious if there was any chance for rain to help with the fires in LA.

While I was looking at the NAM I noticed that the Pac. SW has something large and cyclonic heading for it coming straight east. Is there an animation for a model for more of the NE pacific ocean someone has a link to?

Thanks. I mostly lurk, but I'm around.


This link has many locations with models. I'm not that good at iterpreting them so I couldn't see what you meant. Hope it helps. :)

Link
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Quoting JLPR:
are we in the blackout?
This is the most recent image I could find


Yep, we're in blackout/eclipse time. As we get closer and closer to the autumnal equinox, the eclipse will get longer and longer.
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Nite all, check back in tomorrow.
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3127. gecko
General question. The NAM model for cont. U.S. doesn't do a good job at all of picking up Jimena. I was curious if there was any chance for rain to help with the fires in LA.

While I was looking at the NAM I noticed that the Pac. SW has something large and cyclonic heading for it coming straight east. Is there an animation for a model for more of the NE pacific ocean someone has a link to?

Thanks. I mostly lurk, but I'm around.
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3126. JLPR
are we in the blackout?
This is the most recent image I could find

from Eumetsat

whooops wrong link... fixed
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3125. JRRP
have a nice day!

also CMC shift a bit to left
Link
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3124. flsky
Quoting GeorgefromLosCabos:
This is so scary, I mean, a lot of pressure knowing that a Hurricane almost cat 5 is comming to my way and being alone, far away from my family, I couldn't go to Los Cabos to stay with them so I must be here in La Paz alone while the hurricane will get closer... tomorrow i'll go buy all the necesary, right now I'm working hard in a website about weather and earthquakes and we have a lot of traffic in there, right now, so is kind of stressfull, I did't eat since yesterday night.. maybe I should relax for a moment 'coz tomorrow will be worst.

what a big deal with Jimena. U_U


Well...it is a big deal. Please try to be in contact with your family. They will most likely get warnings, but please be aware that you might be needed by them at some point. Don't mean to be preachy, but this is a huge, dangerous storm.
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Quoting JLPR:
well lets see yesterday 94L didn't look good till 3 or 4am and right now it is only 1am so yep 94L still has some time to get going tonight


Darn! Just when I have to go bed early (meaning before 4 am). Oh well, still a couple more days to check on that. Right now I'm all worried about Jimena.
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Weak trough. strong high pressure, and weak system(94L), westward she goes.
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Quoting GeorgefromLosCabos:
This is so scary, I mean, a lot of pressure knowing that a Hurricane almost cat 5 is comming to my way and being alone, far away from my family, I couldn't go to Los Cabos to stay with them so I must be here in La Paz alone while the hurricane will get closer... tomorrow i'll go buy all the necesary, right now I'm working hard in a website about weather and earthquakes and we have a lot of traffic in there, right now, so is kind of stressfull, I did't eat since yesterday night.. maybe I should relax for a moment 'coz tomorrow will be worst.

what a big deal with Jimena. U_U


Ah George you're tuggng at my heartstrings. :(
It is hard to be away from your family at a time like this. And I remember being scared waiting on them to come. I hope it misses you or at least weakens. Take care of yourself. I wish you the best. Please let us know you're alright after the storm passes.
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3119. msphar
Hang tough George in La Paz. You should be fine. Cabo may take more of a hit... I hope your family is well secured. Fill the bathtub with water and all that other prep stuff. Stay away from windows, expect the worst, and hope for the best.
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Quoting FloridaTigers:


We can only hope that Jimena weakens and/or remains offshore enough for minimal effects.
Second that.
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if current predictions keep up, even if she doesnt reach cat 5, jimena is on track to beat several records for the pacific region, including lowest pressure at landfall, highest winds at landfall and several others... any comments?
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3116. JLPR
well lets see yesterday 94L didn't look good till 3 or 4am and right now it is only 1am so yep 94L still has some time to get going tonight
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Quoting GeorgefromLosCabos:
This is so scary, I mean, a lot of pressure knowing that a Hurricane almost cat 5 is comming to my way and being alone, far away from my family, I couldn't go to Los Cabos to stay with them so I must be here in La Paz alone while the hurricane will get closer... tomorrow i'll go buy all the necesary, right now I'm working hard in a website about weather and earthquakes and we have a lot of traffic in there, right now, so is kind of stressfull, I did't eat since yesterday night.. maybe I should relax for a moment 'coz tomorrow will be worst.

what a big deal with Jimena. U_U


We can only hope that Jimena weakens and/or remains offshore enough for minimal effects.
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3114. JLPR
Quoting alpha992000:


Same here, though I remember Hugo just as well.

Edited: My avatar is Georges just as it was about to hit Puerto Rico. You bet I still remember that hurricane vividly. :-s


me too
and to think PR hasn't had a hurricane since 1998 =O
we are lucky for a island sitting in the middle of the ocean =P
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3113. msphar
Moored in Ensenada Honda. Formerly Roosevelt Roads Naval Marina.
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This is so scary, I mean, a lot of pressure knowing that a Hurricane almost cat 5 is comming to my way and being alone, far away from my family, I couldn't go to Los Cabos to stay with them so I must be here in La Paz alone while the hurricane will get closer... tomorrow i'll go buy all the necesary, right now I'm working hard in a website about weather and earthquakes and we have a lot of traffic in there, right now, so is kind of stressfull, I did't eat since yesterday night.. maybe I should relax for a moment 'coz tomorrow will be worst.

what a big deal with Jimena. U_U
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Quoting msphar:
Wow! Georges! Luquillo is just around the corner from where my boat is moored! Climb girl, Climb! Get North.


Moored you mean in a dock or out at sea? :o
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Quoting JLPR:
blog hole?
seems we lost everyone...
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Quoting JLPR:


yep and I lived through that, Georges is the reason im here


Same here, though I remember Hugo just as well.

Edited: My avatar is Georges just as it was about to hit Puerto Rico. You bet I still remember that hurricane vividly. :-s
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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