Invest 94L and the Lesser Antilles

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 9:51 AM GMT on August 30, 2009

Share this Blog
1
+

Hi, this is Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Dr. Masters. The convection associated with Invest 94L has intensified, prompting the NHC to issue an early Tropical Weather Outlook to update the situation. Essentially, people in the Lesser Antilles need to start paying attention to the seas and skies. Looking at the computer track models, the set of model solutions are fairly similar to the Saturday model runs. A set of dynamical models (GFDL, HWRF, NOGAPS) runs to the NE of the Antilles, while the simpler models (LBAR, BAM family) are more easterly and take 94L over the Antilles. I do not ascribe any significance to the 00Z GFS track following the simpler models over the dynamical models. From my examination of the 00Z GFS run, it looks like the simulated 94L weakens too much, so the automatic vortex tracker picks up another vorticity feature. As for the future of 94L, there is a large area of large wind shear to it's north. It will need to keep it's track at WNW-W for intensification.

Update at 6AM EDT
I would be remiss if I didn't mention the major hurricane in the Eastern Pacific, Jimena At this time, Jimena has a satellite-estimated maximum wind speed of 115 mph, making it a Category 3 storm on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Jimena has an impressive presentation in satellite imagery with a large area of cold anvil cirrus in the center of the storm. The following microwave imagery indicate the formation of a relatively potent central eyewall, which is responsible for intensification.


Fig. 1 SSMI 85 GHz PCT at 0244Z Aug 30. Image courtesy of NRL.


People along the western coast of Mexico and along along the Baja need to pay close attention to this dangerous storm. I emphasize that using the current track and intensity forecast, Jimena will be a Category 4 storm when it approaches the tip of Baja and a Category 3 storm when it makes landfall up the coast.

It is worth noting that if Jimena follows the more easterly tracks presented in the computer track forecasts, the remnants of Jimena could impact NM and western Texas.


I'll update this entry further in response to 94L's development.


Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 1858 - 1808

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63 | 64 | 65 | 66Blog Index

1858. IKE
18Z GFS @ 90 hours....

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Lastest Radar image from Tokai Region Radar



Krovanh (2100Z JTWC info)

32.6N 140.0E
Winds:65 MPH
Moving NNW at 12 MPH
Pressure:980 MB
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting btwntx08:
one more time NO MORE SPANISH or its time for u all that r speaking spanish to go
You look like you should be able to speak Spanish yourself. Not trying to stereotype, but being from Brownsville, Texas, next to the border, I would think it would not be that big of deal to you.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting JLPR:


lol where are the rules where it says English is the Language for this blog =P

anyways
here is a little picture of 94L


You can already see some blossoming convection within the storm.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Dakster:
I almost regret showing connie the google translator...



so you're the culprit? :O LOL
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Dakster:
I almost regret showing connie the google translator...
lmao! I know 6 languages, without using the google translator.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Don't make a big issue if we put a phrase or two in our natives languages, is not address to everybody obviously. The blog is in English since is coming from the U.S. but hurricanes affect many other countries that speak other languages as well .
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1851. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
wow now we're getting some Dutch/German text now. =P
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1850. Patrap
Google translate's all the pages as the wunderground has a translator itself

Just Google your handle and add ,wunderground.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
lol Drakster!! i absolutely love it...
I'm sorry....I will stop messing with it now...it's just too much fun!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1847. JLPR
Quoting Dakster:
I almost regret showing connie the google translator...


ha! lol xD
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 5223
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Link

Be sure to check Primary Portrait for Bio


thank you. i tried that earlier. as i just tried that again, i noticed after uploading, something along the lines of "your photo is awaiting approval." i forgot that they send it off for approval before it shows up as a profile pic.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1843. Dakster
I almost regret showing connie the google translator...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1842. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)


"Typhoon" getting close to Japan
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting btwntx08:
one more time NO MORE SPANISH or its time for u all that r speaking spanish to go


Your not the blog police. This is a blog for anyone to be on, not just English speakers.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting pipelines:
I can't believe no one is talking about Jimena, it just turned into a major cane from first forming into a depression in about 24 hours , not only that but it actually has a PIN HOLE EYE! that so many on here like to exclaim on every other developing storm.
U missed the excitement this a.m. Jimena is, like, "periodico de ayer" - yesterday's news - to those of us who have been blogging all day LOL. But very impressive, yes?



Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21886
1839. JLPR
Quoting AllStar17:
94L exhibits a good cyclonic structure, with good banding features and outflow channels. Feeder bands can also be observed to the north and south of 94L. As soon as it can fire off convection over the center, tropical depression designation should occur. Which, conceivably could occur at any time. It is important to note that if this system was to become named tomorrow, it would be the fifth named storm in August......after we had 0 in June and July.



I wonder if Erika is going to be named before August ends
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 5223
Sometimes we do CapnJak.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting FloridaTigers:


Is it the first pinhole eye storm since Wilma?
First I can remember!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting btwntx08:
one more time NO MORE SPANISH or its time for u all that r speaking spanish to go


What if a blogger is threatened by Jimena, from Mexico, and wants advice or info here? Gonna prevent the spanish speaking blogers from helping?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting AllStar17:
94L exhibits a good cyclonic structure, with good banding features and outflow channels. Feeder bands can also be observed to the north and south of 94L. As soon as it can fire off convection over the center, tropical depression designation should occur. Which, conceivably could occur at any time. It is important to note that if this system was to become named tomorrow, it would be the fifth named storm in August......after we had 0 in June and July.



can this mean we can expect the hurricane season to be longer this year?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Dakster:
Yo quiero Taco Bell!

Anyways, that is quite a model split for 94L! We might as well throw darts at a map.
Funny! Hey, someone on this site has a Chihuahua for their avatar.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1832. CapnJak
Quoting connie1976:
Deja de ser tan grave. : P

Rubias tienen más diversión!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Yes TriniGirl26...
I was just trying to make someone laugh...

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Which model is the best to look at for 94L?

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting SavannahStorm:


18Z GFS will at least bring the model back into the spread. Right now you might as well throw darts on a map.


The LBAR track would be bad...especially if the storm were to be a hurricane. Grazing Puerto Rico and into the Bahamas.....not a good scenario.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1828. JLPR
Quoting btwntx08:

am telling u this is not a spanish speaking blog....change the langauge or go to ur own blog


lol where are the rules where it says English is the Language for this blog =P

anyways
here is a little picture of 94L
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 5223
1827. Dakster
Yo quiero Taco Bell!

Anyways, that is quite a model split for 94L! We might as well throw darts at a map.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
94L exhibits a good cyclonic structure, with good banding features and outflow channels. Feeder bands can also be observed to the north and south of 94L. As soon as it can fire off convection over the center, tropical depression designation should occur. Which, conceivably could occur at any time. It is important to note that if this system was to become named tomorrow, it would be the fifth named storm in August......after we had 0 in June and July.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
is this Part 2 of the language class from last night?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Dakster:


Hey, you found the '?I don't have a keyboard with it.


For Windows and Linux:

Ñ-> Hold Down [ALT] and type 165 on numeric keypad
ñ -> Hold Down [ALT] and type 164 on numeric keypad

For Mac:

Ñ -> Option n, then shift N
ñ -> Option n, then n
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1822. Dakster
Thansk Lightning Charmer! I knew there was a combo for it. I just couldn't remember it.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting JLPR:


yep if I speak in Spanish which I rarely do in here =P I give a translation or an explication

My first language is Spanish but since almost everyone here is from the US I speak English, that way everyone understands me =]

but since the system could affect PR expect some Spanish talking people around soon xD
good point.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting SavannahStorm:


18Z GFS will at least bring the model back into the spread. Right now you might as well throw darts on a map.


i still say florida.
1816. JLPR
Quoting AllBoardedUp:
If you're going to say it in Spanish, then at least give a translation to those who can't speak it. Out of respect, if anything.


yep if I speak in Spanish which I rarely do in here =P I give a translation or an explication

My first language is Spanish but since almost everyone here is from the US I speak English, that way everyone understands me =]

but since the system could affect PR expect some Spanish talking people around soon xD
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 5223


18Z GFS will at least bring the model back into the spread. Right now you might as well throw darts on a map.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting jurakantaino:
TWC just said that the NHC probably delay to call 94L a TD to 11:00 pm since it loss some of the convection around the COC in the last few hours.


Thanks for the update.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
TWC just said that the NHC probably delay to call 94L a TD to 11:00 pm since it loss some of the convection around the COC in the last few hours.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting JLPR:


taz that is not nice
weather is the same in English and Spanish

but if the conversation is off topic then I understand you
If you're going to say it in Spanish, then at least give a translation to those who can't speak it. Out of respect, if anything.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Tazmanian:
guys this is a weather blog not a Spanish blog



take the Spanish talk too your own blog



we now take you back too 94L

LOL
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 1858 - 1808

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63 | 64 | 65 | 66Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Mostly Cloudy
77 °F
Mostly Cloudy