Invest 94L and the Lesser Antilles

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 9:51 AM GMT on August 30, 2009

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Hi, this is Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Dr. Masters. The convection associated with Invest 94L has intensified, prompting the NHC to issue an early Tropical Weather Outlook to update the situation. Essentially, people in the Lesser Antilles need to start paying attention to the seas and skies. Looking at the computer track models, the set of model solutions are fairly similar to the Saturday model runs. A set of dynamical models (GFDL, HWRF, NOGAPS) runs to the NE of the Antilles, while the simpler models (LBAR, BAM family) are more easterly and take 94L over the Antilles. I do not ascribe any significance to the 00Z GFS track following the simpler models over the dynamical models. From my examination of the 00Z GFS run, it looks like the simulated 94L weakens too much, so the automatic vortex tracker picks up another vorticity feature. As for the future of 94L, there is a large area of large wind shear to it's north. It will need to keep it's track at WNW-W for intensification.

Update at 6AM EDT
I would be remiss if I didn't mention the major hurricane in the Eastern Pacific, Jimena At this time, Jimena has a satellite-estimated maximum wind speed of 115 mph, making it a Category 3 storm on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Jimena has an impressive presentation in satellite imagery with a large area of cold anvil cirrus in the center of the storm. The following microwave imagery indicate the formation of a relatively potent central eyewall, which is responsible for intensification.


Fig. 1 SSMI 85 GHz PCT at 0244Z Aug 30. Image courtesy of NRL.


People along the western coast of Mexico and along along the Baja need to pay close attention to this dangerous storm. I emphasize that using the current track and intensity forecast, Jimena will be a Category 4 storm when it approaches the tip of Baja and a Category 3 storm when it makes landfall up the coast.

It is worth noting that if Jimena follows the more easterly tracks presented in the computer track forecasts, the remnants of Jimena could impact NM and western Texas.


I'll update this entry further in response to 94L's development.


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1908. BKM77
D-Max is very early in the morning before sunrise.. D-min as at night as sunset approaches
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Quoting JLPR:


good but there are some errors in there =P
but yep im watching 94L very closely


u from the caribbean? and if so which part?
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94L looks as if it is being stretched to the point of breaking. The convection is weakening significantly and spreading out over a wide area as high cloud.

I don't see this making TD tonight unless the trend reverses quickly. Maybe the heat of the day has taken its toll.
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Has stormW said whether or not he thinks 94 may enter GOM? I know he doesn't like to go out past 48 hours.
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1903. Patrap
18 Z
Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)


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1902. JLPR
Quoting Tatyana:
Los habitantes de los Antilles necesitan prestar atencion a 94L. Mientras los modelos estan diciendo que la pertubacion va a ir al norte de las islas, en realidad esta sistema estan vayando mas al oeste y, a la menos, podre producir mucha lluvia.


good but there are some errors in there =P
but yep im watching 94L very closely
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 5223
Quoting Weather456:
The GFS is only right when it shows what you want. the GFS forecast errow with 94L has been very large over 200 nmi thus far so the model has been wrong from the gecko.


Gecko?

I think you mean "get-go".
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I wonder if 94l will take advantage of of D-max tonight and try to organize. I believe it is D-max for night correct? Or is it D-min at night? Anyway I believe we will see the 5th storm of August tomorrow. The NHC always delays a day or so to name these storms. If Ana was a storm then 94l should be classified tomorrow.
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Quoting Tatyana:
Los habitantes de los Antilles necesitan prestar atencion a 94L. Mientras los modelos estan diciendo que la pertubacion va a ir al norte de las islas, en realidad esta sistema estan vayando mas al oeste y, a la menos, podre producir mucha lluvia.


LOL..
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The GFS is only right when it shows what you want. the GFS forecast errow with 94L has been very large over 200 nmi thus far so the model has been wrong from the gecko.
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Quoting IKE:


How do you know it's wrong? It's similar to the best model of 2009, the ECMWF.


If we are to believe the current ECMWF, which all but drops 94L somewhere near Puerto Rico.
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Quoting JLPR:


yep if I speak in Spanish which I rarely do in here =P I give a translation or an explication

My first language is Spanish but since almost everyone here is from the US I speak English, that way everyone understands me =]

but since the system could affect PR expect some Spanish talking people around soon xD

Perfect explanation , many here speak in English because is the main language on this blog, and we respect that, but when this storms are going to affect an area where English is not their language is perfectly normal to keep them inform. Or show us the English only rule here.
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you got mail connie!
Quoting Patrap:
Тропско време
Извештаји о активној тропској олуји: 5 — Архива урагана
Тренутна активност
That's funny! How about a little Cajun French anytime a storm is threatening Acadia Country
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1887. Dakster
Quoting StadiumEffect:
Guys,

Easy solution with the language issue. When you post, just post the spanish and english. That way people can understand and not get offended, often times by things they interperet incorrectly, as I've seen before. Or, if you don't undersdtand what's being said, just ignore the post. Back to the wether...


You all would never survive in Miami... I hear spanish all day long... At work, at lunch (sometimes have to order in spanish), at the gas station, at the Doctor's Office.

I speak "spanglish" and have learned survival spanish. It doesn't offend me. The ONLY thing that OFFENDS me is if you are offended that I do NOT speak fluent spanish while I am in the U.S. (I actually had someone tell me that they couldn't believe I lived in Miami and didn't speak spanish)

If I go to France, I don't expect everyone there to speak English. While in the U.S. don't expect me to speak your native language. I won't get offended if you don't speak English and will do my best to communicate with you.

So lighten up and enjoy the blog. If you absolutely need to know what was said in spanish that was NOT directed at you, google translator will help you.
Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 10074
1886. Seastep
Quoting Patrap:
Тропско време
Извештаји о активној тропској олуји: 5 — Архива урагана
Тренутна активност


Exactly. No offense, but english is the international language and, as such, is the most productive means of communication for a multi-national board.
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1885. Tatyana
Los habitantes de los Antilles necesitan prestar atencion a 94L. Mientras los modelos estan diciendo que la pertubacion va a ir al norte de las islas, en realidad esta sistema estan vayando mas al oeste y, a la menos, podre producir mucha lluvia.
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Quoting Magicchaos:
Lastest Radar image from Tokai Region Radar



Krovanh (2100Z JTWC info)

32.6N 140.0E
Winds:65 MPH
Moving NNW at 12 MPH
Pressure:980 MB
Wow. This sure looks good for a 65mph storm....
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1882. IKE
Quoting btwntx08:
since the gfs is wrong i would take it off cause it off big time


How do you know it's wrong? It's similar to the best model of 2009, the ECMWF.
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1881. ch2os
Sometimes the IGNORE button can be one's best friend when it comes to child's play. :)
My parents taught me at a very young age that there's a place and time for everything.
I think most on this blog are truly here for the purpose of wanting more information and understanding of tropical weather. I know I certainly am. Excuse the interuption and please carry on with the weather analogies.
Member Since: August 31, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 92
this is a weather blog not a language class room
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1877. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
wow Russian text O_O
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1876. Grothar
Quoting DestinJeff:



Wunderbar! Tschuss ... gute Gluck!


You have mail. I write privately in German.

By the way other bloggers. Google, or other translating machines do not translate languages exactly. Most of it comes back as gibberish. That is how one can tell if someone is a true speaker. It is more gisting than translating. It is virtually impossible to translate from a program since languanges have to many nuances and idiomatic expressions. I am REALLY going this time. All stay well!

by the way Connie. You do pretty good at it though!!!
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26009
English is Dr. Master's chosen language, so it makes sense to type in English. This is his blog. However, if it is necessary to speak in Spanish to help someone in Jimena's path, then go ahead and do so. As of now, however, I doubt it necessary to speak Spanish, so please go back to English. Sorting through the Spanish is annoying.
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1874. flsky
Quoting canesrule1:
lmao! I know 6 languages, without using the google translator.


I'm sorry, I just have to.... This is the same person who has a PhD in Met., and has flown w/the HH.
Member Since: October 24, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1937
1873. Seastep
Quoting TriniGirl26:


can this mean we can expect the hurricane season to be longer this year?


Trini - you should be good. No worries.
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here we go
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Quoting JLPR:


lol that makes me feel stupid with my two languages lol
lol
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Quoting Dakster:
1854. Yes... Sorry about that.
My wife is my translator, but she's out running errands with the kids.
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Quoting JLPR:


lol that makes me feel stupid with my two languages lol


Nah, don't feel stupid...languages are pretty easy to pick up...well some are...and besides if u stick to this site i sure u will be speaking atleast 4-5 languages in no time :)
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Faut-il parler en français quand l'orage menace la Louisiane ou Haïti?
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Quoting AllBoardedUp:
If you're going to say it in Spanish, then at least give a translation to those who can't speak it. Out of respect, if anything.
Trust me. Sometimes it is better it stays in spanish. Sometimes a translation would be ..... less polite.

HGW.... is that strengthening? I thought this a.m. it looked like it was falling off. But now winds look like they are up a bit.

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Guys,

Easy solution with the language issue. When you post, just post the spanish and english. That way people can understand and not get offended, often times by things they interperet incorrectly, as I've seen before. Or, if you don't undersdtand what's being said, just ignore the post. Back to the wether...
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Quoting btwntx08:

am telling u this is not a spanish speaking blog....change the langauge or go to ur own blog


Lighten up Frances, grab ya a copy of Rosetta Stone and chime along.
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1861. Dakster
1854. Yes... Sorry about that.
Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 10074
1858. IKE
18Z GFS @ 90 hours....

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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