Invest 94L and the Lesser Antilles
Hi, this is Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Dr. Masters. The convection associated with Invest 94L has intensified, prompting the NHC to issue an early Tropical Weather Outlook to update the situation. Essentially, people in the Lesser Antilles need to start paying attention to the seas and skies. Looking at the computer track models, the set of model solutions are fairly similar to the Saturday model runs. A set of dynamical models (GFDL, HWRF, NOGAPS) runs to the NE of the Antilles, while the simpler models (LBAR, BAM family) are more easterly and take 94L over the Antilles. I do not ascribe any significance to the 00Z GFS track following the simpler models over the dynamical models. From my examination of the 00Z GFS run, it looks like the simulated 94L weakens too much, so the automatic vortex tracker picks up another vorticity feature. As for the future of 94L, there is a large area of large wind shear to it's north. It will need to keep it's track at WNW-W for intensification.
Update at 6AM EDT
I would be remiss if I didn't mention the major hurricane in the Eastern Pacific, Jimena At this time, Jimena has a satellite-estimated maximum wind speed of 115 mph, making it a Category 3 storm on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Jimena has an impressive presentation in satellite imagery with a large area of cold anvil cirrus in the center of the storm. The following microwave imagery indicate the formation of a relatively potent central eyewall, which is responsible for intensification.
Fig. 1 SSMI 85 GHz PCT at 0244Z Aug 30. Image courtesy of NRL.
People along the western coast of Mexico and along along the Baja need to pay close attention to this dangerous storm. I emphasize that using the current track and intensity forecast, Jimena will be a Category 4 storm when it approaches the tip of Baja and a Category 3 storm when it makes landfall up the coast.
It is worth noting that if Jimena follows the more easterly tracks presented in the computer track forecasts, the remnants of Jimena could impact NM and western Texas.
I'll update this entry further in response to 94L's development.
Reader Comments
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meaning what exactly?
Of course. Look at the previous blogs. Many of us are very concerned with the Baja region. Jimena is a potent system and according to the latest reports, it may even strengthen further. Very serious situation for many. As usual, people are mostly concerned with their area of the world, therefore the focus is on the Atlantic systems. Very understandable.
Are you the kid living in PSL who was under the name of futermet?
I still don't see enough strengthening with 94L to allow for it to go more to the north.
Hopefully it misses you, but you never know!
Tropical Storm force wind area is very very small. Until it gets closer, you won't.
We got High wind shear waiting to tear it up, if it makes it to the Carib. then it's another story
It does appear, though, that 94L is starting to control her own environment.
WatervaporLoop
but what is bastardis take on 94l ???
Why ever would you want to do that to us? ;)
Yes! Everyone living on the western pacific coast of Mexico is paying close attention. Here in La Manzanilla (19.1N/ 104.4W) we've had light rain and overcast skies all day but it looks like Jimena will pass far
enough to the west that we won't feel the brunt of the storm.
Buen suerte, Mazgreg - hope Jimena is long gone before it reaches your latitude.
My son sent me an email this morning saying he and his girlfriend are going to Cabo tomorrow. They know there is a hurricane on the way, but I don't think they know how strong it's going to be. I've been keeping them updated from info I get here on WU. My guess is that their flight is going to be canceled. Personally, I hope they delay the trip for a while.
NHC does a Forecast Verification Report every year. All of the data would be in those reports, but they have already crunched it for you.
The high is extending westward and looks as though it could scoop the trough upward, but if the high stays where it is then it could by pass the carribean.
If a cyclone doesn't form by the time is gets to the Easter caribbean, it won't form until it gets to the Western Caribbean.. I forgot what the Lattitude that it has to form by. I think it is 50W.
fronts pull cyclones up and over (N-NE) and erode the anticyclones that help steer west the tropical cyclones. she may be referring to the trough going over the anticyclone because it is weaker, therefore a more westerly path for 94l.
bad idea...
LoopShortWave
Interesting development here with the GFS and GFS Ensemble. Also the BAMM models are showing a bit of a westward turn after a day or so.
tell him its not the smartest move in the world to go to a place where a CAT3-5 hurricane may land - especially if it's for leisure purposes. if he's hunting hurricanes, then by all means
oh ok. thanks
So im going to say TD tomorrow
Not sure, but I believe the NHC models has outperformed all models with a higher degree of accuracy. I do not want to quote incorrectly, but I believe it may have been in one of Dr. Master's blogs. Like I said, I do not want to misquote, but I am sure I shall be corrected if I am wrong.
The high is huge and mighty strong, will be interesting to see.
now we're onto something. Each model utilises the same raw data each year to make predictions (I guess sea temp, shear, SAL, TS activity etc) so the reason why each model is inconsistent is because they use the same criteria, regardless to storm cycle..el nino, la nina, etc
Does any model change the raw data based on the particular storm cycle?
LOL!
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