Invest 94L and the Lesser Antilles

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 9:51 AM GMT on August 30, 2009

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Hi, this is Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Dr. Masters. The convection associated with Invest 94L has intensified, prompting the NHC to issue an early Tropical Weather Outlook to update the situation. Essentially, people in the Lesser Antilles need to start paying attention to the seas and skies. Looking at the computer track models, the set of model solutions are fairly similar to the Saturday model runs. A set of dynamical models (GFDL, HWRF, NOGAPS) runs to the NE of the Antilles, while the simpler models (LBAR, BAM family) are more easterly and take 94L over the Antilles. I do not ascribe any significance to the 00Z GFS track following the simpler models over the dynamical models. From my examination of the 00Z GFS run, it looks like the simulated 94L weakens too much, so the automatic vortex tracker picks up another vorticity feature. As for the future of 94L, there is a large area of large wind shear to it's north. It will need to keep it's track at WNW-W for intensification.

Update at 6AM EDT
I would be remiss if I didn't mention the major hurricane in the Eastern Pacific, Jimena At this time, Jimena has a satellite-estimated maximum wind speed of 115 mph, making it a Category 3 storm on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Jimena has an impressive presentation in satellite imagery with a large area of cold anvil cirrus in the center of the storm. The following microwave imagery indicate the formation of a relatively potent central eyewall, which is responsible for intensification.


Fig. 1 SSMI 85 GHz PCT at 0244Z Aug 30. Image courtesy of NRL.


People along the western coast of Mexico and along along the Baja need to pay close attention to this dangerous storm. I emphasize that using the current track and intensity forecast, Jimena will be a Category 4 storm when it approaches the tip of Baja and a Category 3 storm when it makes landfall up the coast.

It is worth noting that if Jimena follows the more easterly tracks presented in the computer track forecasts, the remnants of Jimena could impact NM and western Texas.


I'll update this entry further in response to 94L's development.


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1958. Dakster
Quoting StadiumEffect:


Actually, I've been living in Miami for 2 years while attending FIU and I survive just fine. PS...I am also bilingual. It's of no issue for me what people speak on here. The posts in English, I read and the posts in Spanish also. Anything else I simply ignore. It doesn't bother me. I was simply making a statement to those who it does irritate.


Cool beans. Point taken and agreed with.
Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 10291
1957. amd
looks like whatever lower level circulation associated with 94L is near 14 North as winds are just about a true South direction at buoy 41041.

Link
Member Since: August 29, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1024
1956. JLPR
Quoting jurakantaino:
Tatiana Estoy de acuerdo contigo , pero creo que Puerto Rico las islas virgenes junto con las de Sotavento son las mas expuestas a este sistema pues se mueve ONO, Sorry English speakers this is only address for my "paisanos".


estoy de acuerdo contigo
si 94L comienza a desarrollarse podemos estar en peligro, pero eso depende de cuanto se desarrolle
---------------
english speaking people please ignore this xD
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I just completed my september oulook. I hope you visit my blog 2mr.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Quoting SavannahStorm:


I do too. I just think a 200 mile NNE jog before returning WNW is a little strange...
It is just showing a sign of uncertainty of weather it will go into the Caribbean or Atlantic.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
OT Sorry for my Spanish posts, I just HATE people who copy other's work, and then he acts like he knows how to speak another language. It all rubbed me the wrong way. I suggest any Prof of the Student person check ALL of the work he has turned in as "his own"...

Back to 'cane watching...
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Quoting StormW:


At the moment with the forecast steering pattern...no.
Quoting Patrap:
18z Early Cycle NHC model tracks
Invest94

Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)



Evening guys...

Don't like the way 94L looks like it wants to go to the H-box. I was thinking 94L looked better than this morning and was wondering if it would get named by 8pm, but looks like the blog thinks otherwise...
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.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Break time. Back later.
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Quoting JLPR:


xD true
right now im thinking a path similar to 1989s Hugo seems possible, that is until reaching the northern islands
I remember when Hugo hit the east part of Puerto Rico while the rest of the island was sunny. An strange experience!
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1947. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Typhoon 2000 website still states coastal storm surge for Krovanh is still around 1-3 feet
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Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


almost every single model shows it missing the islands, the xtrap even shows the WNW movement. they arnt all wrong.


The statistical models are the ones that verified with the LBAR having the smallest forecast errow with 94L.

The dynamic models continue to forecast a NW turn for 3 days now and we all know that aint fly.



Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Quoting connie1976:
aren't the models kind of worthless until it becomes a TD? (I'm really not sure if this is true or not)


That has pretty much been my view.
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Quoting canesrule1:
I agree with the TVCN 100% until it reaches 58W.


I do too. I just think a 200 mile NNE jog before returning WNW is a little strange...
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Quoting Dakster:


You all would never survive in Miami... I hear spanish all day long... At work, at lunch (sometimes have to order in spanish), at the gas station, at the Doctor's Office.

I speak "spanglish" and have learned survival spanish. It doesn't offend me. The ONLY thing that OFFENDS me is if you are offended that I do NOT speak fluent spanish while I am in the U.S. (I actually had someone tell me that they couldn't believe I lived in Miami and didn't speak spanish)

If I go to France, I don't expect everyone there to speak English. While in the U.S. don't expect me to speak your native language. I won't get offended if you don't speak English and will do my best to communicate with you.

So lighten up and enjoy the blog. If you absolutely need to know what was said in spanish that was NOT directed at you, google translator will help you.


Actually, I've been living in Miami for 2 years while attending FIU and I survive just fine. PS...I am also bilingual. It's of no issue for me what people speak on here. The posts in English, I read and the posts in Spanish also. Anything else I simply ignore. It doesn't bother me. I was simply making a statement to those who it does irritate.
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Quoting StormW:


At the moment with the forecast steering pattern...no.


good. it's pretty amazing though, that we haven't had any Hurricanes in there this year.
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1940. 7544
looks like the models are getting 94l to the islands then on to pr and could be in the bahammas latter this wwek . then it up in the air on where it could head
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Quoting Patrap:
18 Z

Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)



I think I see ZZ Tops next album cover in this one.
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1938. Patrap
Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)

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aren't the models kind of worthless until it becomes a TD? (I'm really not sure if this is true or not)
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Quoting truecajun:
Has stormW said whether or not he thinks 94 may enter GOM? I know he doesn't like to go out past 48 hours.


I believe that the longer this thing takes to develope, the better the chances are of it making it to the GOM or very close to it. I am not wishcasting anything since i live here in Lafayette, LA. I had enough with Gustav last year. But this is really starting to remind me of the "A" word. Yes i said it "Andrew". It looked the same at this point and is on a similar track for the moment! Its got people over here wondering already. But things can change quickly so I guess we will all just have to wait and see.
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Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
1884. BahaHurican 10:16 PM GMT on August 30, 2009

JMA increased the intensity to 60 knots (70 knots 1-min sustained winds average)
That makes a lot more sense. Wonder what surge is going to be like at landfall. Japan hasn't had a landfalling typhoon in that area for a while, IIRC.....
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22101
Quoting btwntx08:

and ur point??


that its looking a little more ragged?? just a guess
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Quoting JLPR:


Im from Puerto Rico

I thought my Handle would give me up
JLPR xD


ohhhhh, wasn't thinking about that...lol
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Quoting SavannahStorm:


What the heck are the TVCN and TVCC models? That's quite a jog NE they give 94L, lol.
I agree with the TVCN 100% until it reaches 58W.
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I wouldn't get too worked up over the models just yet. 94L is so poorly organized that IMO they do not have a good handle on it. In fact, the models had it making a sharp right turn and heading N into the Atl about 700 miles East of where it is now.

Go figure.
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1928. JLPR
Quoting BahaHurican:
Have to say that was better spanish than a whole lot of the English that gets typed on this board..... lol..... and I don't think our CAR members are "slunking" with 94L. Definitely a system to watch...


xD true
right now im thinking a path similar to 1989s Hugo seems possible, that is until reaching the northern islands
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1926. Patrap
18z Early Cycle NHC model tracks
Invest94

Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)

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1925. JLPR
Quoting TriniGirl26:


u from the caribbean? and if so which part?


Im from Puerto Rico

I thought my Handle would give me up
JLPR xD
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1924. Dakster
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


almost every single model shows it missing the islands, the xtrap even shows the WNW movement. they arnt all wrong.


Ummm.. Did you see the latest model chart on the WU homepage for 94L?
Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 10291
Quoting Patrap:
18 Z

Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)


What the heck are the TVCN and TVCC models? That's quite a jog NE they give 94L, lol.
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1920. Patrap
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'evening all! :)

GOOD NEWS!

"Experience Hurricane Bill," XtremeHurricanes.com's latest hurricane experience video is now uploading to YouTube.

One-hour left in upload...followed by approximately 1-2 hours of processing time once YouTube has it.

I'll return later this evening to formally announce that it is available for viewing.

Ciao bella...

CycloneOz---
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Quoting kmanislander:
94L looks as if it is being stretched to the point of breaking. The convection is weakening significantly and spreading out over a wide area as high cloud.

I don't see this making TD tonight unless the trend reverses quickly. Maybe the heat of the day has taken its toll.


i agree. i think it's looking more ragged than earlier today
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Quoting JLPR:


good but there are some errors in there =P
but yep im watching 94L very closely
Have to say that was better spanish than a whole lot of the English that gets typed on this board..... lol..... and I don't think our CAR members are "slunking" with 94L. Definitely a system to watch...
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22101
IMO some TS watches will go up for portions of the Islands sometime tomorrow.

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1915. Dakster
1901. If I had a knack for languages, in addition to more spanish. I would like to learn Japanese, Arabic, and Hebrew.

I don't think I could ever get the character languages down though.

-----------

Anyways... 94L starts to wind down a little as DMIN approaches, wonder what it will look like tomorrow morning.
Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 10291
1914. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
1884. BahaHurican 10:16 PM GMT on August 30, 2009

JMA increased the intensity to 60 knots (70 knots 1-min sustained winds average)
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Quoting Weather456:
The GFS is only right when it shows what you want. the GFS forecast errow with 94L has been very large over 200 nmi thus far so the model has been wrong from the gecko.


almost every single model shows it missing the islands, the xtrap even shows the WNW movement. they arnt all wrong.
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1912. Patrap
18 Z

Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)

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Quoting flsky:


I'm sorry, I just have to.... This is the same person who has a PhD in Met., and has flown w/the HH.
yes
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1908. BKM77
D-Max is very early in the morning before sunrise.. D-min as at night as sunset approaches
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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