Invest 94L and the Lesser Antilles

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 9:51 AM GMT on August 30, 2009

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Hi, this is Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Dr. Masters. The convection associated with Invest 94L has intensified, prompting the NHC to issue an early Tropical Weather Outlook to update the situation. Essentially, people in the Lesser Antilles need to start paying attention to the seas and skies. Looking at the computer track models, the set of model solutions are fairly similar to the Saturday model runs. A set of dynamical models (GFDL, HWRF, NOGAPS) runs to the NE of the Antilles, while the simpler models (LBAR, BAM family) are more easterly and take 94L over the Antilles. I do not ascribe any significance to the 00Z GFS track following the simpler models over the dynamical models. From my examination of the 00Z GFS run, it looks like the simulated 94L weakens too much, so the automatic vortex tracker picks up another vorticity feature. As for the future of 94L, there is a large area of large wind shear to it's north. It will need to keep it's track at WNW-W for intensification.

Update at 6AM EDT
I would be remiss if I didn't mention the major hurricane in the Eastern Pacific, Jimena At this time, Jimena has a satellite-estimated maximum wind speed of 115 mph, making it a Category 3 storm on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Jimena has an impressive presentation in satellite imagery with a large area of cold anvil cirrus in the center of the storm. The following microwave imagery indicate the formation of a relatively potent central eyewall, which is responsible for intensification.


Fig. 1 SSMI 85 GHz PCT at 0244Z Aug 30. Image courtesy of NRL.


People along the western coast of Mexico and along along the Baja need to pay close attention to this dangerous storm. I emphasize that using the current track and intensity forecast, Jimena will be a Category 4 storm when it approaches the tip of Baja and a Category 3 storm when it makes landfall up the coast.

It is worth noting that if Jimena follows the more easterly tracks presented in the computer track forecasts, the remnants of Jimena could impact NM and western Texas.


I'll update this entry further in response to 94L's development.


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Quoting Patrap:
That's a Upper Level Low Pressure Vortex north of 94L,its also aiding 94L some in Venting the outflow on the N side of 94L



thank you :)
Member Since: August 18, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 201
How do you pronounce the name of the hurricane in the EPAC?
Quoting mikatnight:


See, shows what I know. I thought it looked better, I mean, I can easily see the center now and it looks more structured. No, eh?


I don't think the NHC will lower the chance for development. Convection will come back and 94L will easily overnight become organized enough to be named a depression by late morning. It's normal for convection to wane..but one thing for damn sure. That circulation is very well established.
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Quoting TheDawnAwakening:
The only reason the invest looks ragged is because of the lack of central convection. There is tremendous outflow in all quadrants and if Bill was to have this type of atmospheric conditions it could have been what we thought it was, which was a category five hurricane. I mean there is no impinging wind shear seen as the cirrus outflow is seen in all quadrants with well developed outflow channels seen to the north and south. This storm is not ragged looking because it has almost ideal rapid strengthening conditions. SSTs could be a little unfavorable with a wind shear belt to the northwest, but neither are showing signs of affecting it as there is good convection in both outflow and feeder band features. This invest is ready to explode, and also another reason it looks ragged is that it is still an invest.


Yep, your completely right on that. No reason it wont come back overnight.
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I think you are right Kman it looks on the last few frames that shear may be coming into play. Like most systems this year, appears to have multiple centers. Because all the different winds flows aloft seem to be inhibiting formation. I still think system above Porto Rico looks interesting. But if it did develop I believe it would make hard right just before Fl.
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94L is the coolest looking naked swirl i have seen in a while. if it had this swirl and convection with it, it would be a masterpiece(in a bad way).
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2001. Patrap
94L Floater - RGB Color Infrared Loop
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I think I may take an early bedtime tonight so I can be up at abt 4 - 4:30 a.m. to blog a bit before I head out..... LOL

94L will be mighty interesting around that time.....
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22101
1999. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
5 NM eye.. goodness that is small
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NHC wouldn't ever put a system back down in Durinal effects when it has it at red especially with the model support this system has, the least they will say is it has become slightly less organized but still at Red, like 90L less than 12 hours before it became TD3.

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Quoting IKE:
I wouldn't be shocked to see 94L go back to an orange circle on the next TWO....convection is waning....



See, shows what I know. I thought it looked better, I mean, I can easily see the center now and it looks more structured. No, eh?
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1995. Patrap
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Quoting extreme236:


Just checked the visible...I dont see that.


Neither do I... in fact it may be continuing to tighten and organize
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Large 94L continues its west-northwestward movement.

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I would be less surprised to see a named storm tomorrow sometime than a yellow circle, anyway. I'd been rooting for the named storm, but now I'm not so keen on it, given the likelihood of some parts of the Lesser Antilles feeling its effect. Best hope now is destruction in the ECar. But I'm not keen on that path either, given possibilities for regeneration in the WCar.

[sigh]
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22101
The only reason the invest looks ragged is because of the lack of central convection. There is tremendous outflow in all quadrants and if Bill was to have this type of atmospheric conditions it could have been what we thought it was, which was a category five hurricane. I mean there is no impinging wind shear seen as the cirrus outflow is seen in all quadrants with well developed outflow channels seen to the north and south. This storm is not ragged looking because it has almost ideal rapid strengthening conditions. SSTs could be a little unfavorable with a wind shear belt to the northwest, but neither are showing signs of affecting it as there is good convection in both outflow and feeder band features. This invest is ready to explode, and also another reason it looks ragged is that it is still an invest.
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Convection could form over the center at any time, which would likely warrant Tropical Depression declaration. It appears that is the only element missing.
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Quoting hunkerdown:
On visible, the circulation does not look as well defined.


Just checked the visible...I dont see that.
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In honor of Taz, check out the pinhole eye on Jimena.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t8/loop-rb.html
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On visible, the circulation does not look as well defined.
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1986. Patrap
That's a Upper Level Low Pressure Vortex north of 94L,its also aiding 94L some in Venting the outflow on the N side of 94L

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Quoting IKE:
I wouldn't be shocked to see 94L go back to an orange circle on the next TWO....convection is waning....



And I would be surprised if you don't know why, Durinal effects. Its Sunset over there. Expected of weak systems, looking at its structure and the bands to the north and south it will likely blow back up later tonight.
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I expect 94L to stay red at 8pm
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1983. JLPR
Quoting extreme236:


I would be very shocked. Its the DMIN part of the cycle and there is no reason to not suspect it will gain convection tonight like it did last night.


yep im expecting 94L to get going tonight
at 3am 94L should look like a TD
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Quoting extreme236:


I would be very shocked. Its the DMIN part of the cycle and there is no reason to not suspect it will gain convection tonight like it did last night.


Agree...it will remain at red.
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Quoting BahaHurican:
Ike, I don't think so. I think if it keeps following the current trend, maybe back to orange tomorrow. But they're going to watch it tonight before they make that change. IMO.


agreed, we all know what happened last night
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Quoting Dakster:
We need to be careful with our spanish... Somethings don't mean the same to different spanish speaking cultures..

For Example:
Un nuevo bicho fue encontrado hoy en el Aeropuerto Internacional de Miami. (The Miami Herald reported this today)

This probably means something entirely different to JLPR than it would to WS...
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1978. Patrap
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Quoting Patrap:


question...whats the white band of stuff over 94L?
Member Since: August 18, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 201
Quoting IKE:
I wouldn't be shocked to see 94L go back to an orange circle on the next TWO....convection is waning....



I would be very shocked. Its the DMIN part of the cycle and there is no reason to not suspect it will gain convection tonight like it did last night.
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off to get ready for Mass. check in later. 94 sure is big, if anything.
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Ike, I don't think so. I think if it keeps following the current trend, maybe back to orange tomorrow. But they're going to watch it tonight before they make that change. IMO.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22101
1973. JLPR
Quoting Dakster:
We need to be careful with our spanish... Somethings don't mean the same to different spanish speaking cultures..

For Example:
Un nuevo bicho fue encontrado hoy en el Aeropuerto Internacional de Miami. (The Miami Herald reported this today)

This probably means something entirely different to JLPR than it would to WS...


yep that's true lol xD
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Quoting Weather456:
Cant image how this will look if gets convection tonight

If convection rises and the structure stays the same it will look like a strong TS, imo.
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1970. Patrap
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1969. Dakster
We need to be careful with our spanish... Somethings don't mean the same to different spanish speaking cultures..

For Example:
Un nuevo bicho fue encontrado hoy en el Aeropuerto Internacional de Miami. (The Miami Herald reported this today)

This probably means something entirely different to JLPR than it would to WS...
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Quoting iceman55:
so rigth now best model is lbar ??
I would say, LBAR, BAMM, BAMS, and BAMD.
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Nice, Oz.

Someone was speculating here earlier whether u would go to Cabo SL for Jimena.....
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22101
1966. IKE
I wouldn't be shocked to see 94L go back to an orange circle on the next TWO....convection is waning....

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
1965. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Central Pacific Hurricane Center
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
10:00 AM HST August 30 2009
=======================================

An area of weak low pressure, Former Tropical Cyclone Hilda centered about 1030 miles southwest of Honolulu, Hawaii and was moving west near 15 mph. Tropical cyclone redevelopment is not likely to occur over the next 48 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential
=====================================
There is a low chance of this disturbance to form into a significant tropical cyclone within the next 48 hours

System #2
---------

A weak low level circulation associated with a surface trough is 985 miles east-southeast of Hilo, Hawaii and was moving west near 15 mph. Tropical cyclone development is not likely to occur over the next 48 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential
=====================================
There is a low chance of this disturbance to form into a significant tropical cyclone within the next 48 hours

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Cant image how this will look if gets convection tonight

Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Quoting viequessun:


MUY cierto Wacth out! el cuento del lobo!

Vieques cuidate!! Ustedes siempre cogen la peor parte,, I hope that everything is ok ,, but i remember Hugo, and Luis, they went your way. La isla grande salio un poco mejor.
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Quoting TriniGirl26:



OHHHH u shouldn't have...i feel so special...the blue line heads for Trinidad....(sniff, sniff)


oops, didnt even realize that :P
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Quoting tornadodude:



OHHHH u shouldn't have...i feel so special...the blue line heads for Trinidad....(sniff, sniff)
Member Since: August 18, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 201
1958. Dakster
Quoting StadiumEffect:


Actually, I've been living in Miami for 2 years while attending FIU and I survive just fine. PS...I am also bilingual. It's of no issue for me what people speak on here. The posts in English, I read and the posts in Spanish also. Anything else I simply ignore. It doesn't bother me. I was simply making a statement to those who it does irritate.


Cool beans. Point taken and agreed with.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.