Invest 94L and the Lesser Antilles

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 9:51 AM GMT on August 30, 2009

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Hi, this is Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Dr. Masters. The convection associated with Invest 94L has intensified, prompting the NHC to issue an early Tropical Weather Outlook to update the situation. Essentially, people in the Lesser Antilles need to start paying attention to the seas and skies. Looking at the computer track models, the set of model solutions are fairly similar to the Saturday model runs. A set of dynamical models (GFDL, HWRF, NOGAPS) runs to the NE of the Antilles, while the simpler models (LBAR, BAM family) are more easterly and take 94L over the Antilles. I do not ascribe any significance to the 00Z GFS track following the simpler models over the dynamical models. From my examination of the 00Z GFS run, it looks like the simulated 94L weakens too much, so the automatic vortex tracker picks up another vorticity feature. As for the future of 94L, there is a large area of large wind shear to it's north. It will need to keep it's track at WNW-W for intensification.

Update at 6AM EDT
I would be remiss if I didn't mention the major hurricane in the Eastern Pacific, Jimena At this time, Jimena has a satellite-estimated maximum wind speed of 115 mph, making it a Category 3 storm on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Jimena has an impressive presentation in satellite imagery with a large area of cold anvil cirrus in the center of the storm. The following microwave imagery indicate the formation of a relatively potent central eyewall, which is responsible for intensification.


Fig. 1 SSMI 85 GHz PCT at 0244Z Aug 30. Image courtesy of NRL.


People along the western coast of Mexico and along along the Baja need to pay close attention to this dangerous storm. I emphasize that using the current track and intensity forecast, Jimena will be a Category 4 storm when it approaches the tip of Baja and a Category 3 storm when it makes landfall up the coast.

It is worth noting that if Jimena follows the more easterly tracks presented in the computer track forecasts, the remnants of Jimena could impact NM and western Texas.


I'll update this entry further in response to 94L's development.


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2058. Drakoen
All the models agree on a trough in the east which would protect the U.S.A from a land-falling system
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30562
Quoting AllStar17:


Hem-in-uh
a day late, dollar short, and slightly off: he-MAY-na
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2056. kachina
Quoting hunkerdown:
nope, way south of that


Drats! Thanks for the reply.
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Quoting tornadodude:
Now that's better, these tracks are more believable. Great job, HAWHAW.
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Quoting hunkerdown:
Should have stopped while you were ahead, thats an ULL, not developing. Oh, and its Puerto Rico.
I thought he meant 94L once it got north of PR, not that ULL; and Porto is an old-fashioned English way of spelling that island's name.

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2053. 7544
Quoting AllStar17:
94L is an extremely large storm.....


agree once it get to td status it could develope rapidly as it moves along

anote just watch local news and they showe their own computer models for the local area and it shows a track the same as the lbar is showing giving it more attention and said we have to watch this one very close latter
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Yes it is large, therefore it is creating its own environment and therfore it is taking a while for it to form into a TD because of its massive size.Nice circulation but not tight enough convective bands.If 94L loses all its convection tonight then DMAX will bring it up again and start all over again like what happened today.
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2051. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
95A is pretty much gone now. (look near Pakistan/India)

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Quoting kachina:
For the geographically challenged (that would mean me).... are either of the west coast storms anywhere near where those horrible fires are raging in California?
nope, way south of that
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Quoting Eagle300:
How do you pronounce the name of the hurricane in the EPAC?


He-may-nuh
Member Since: June 29, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 5313
2048. kachina
For the geographically challenged (that would mean me).... are either of the west coast storms anywhere near where those horrible fires are raging in California?
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2047. LBAR
Quoting Weather456:


The statistical models are the ones that verified with the LBAR having the smallest forecast errow with 94L.

The dynamic models continue to forecast a NW turn for 3 days now and we all know that aint fly.





I love the LBAR, hence my name!

94L will begin a more NW motion due to the Coriolis effect. These type of tracks make me extremely nervous for Bahamas and East Coast.
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2046. Patrap
94L Floater - Rainbow Color Infrared Loop
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128630
What is very scary is, that if there is no trough to deflect 94L and curve it out to sea, the CONUS will be in for a hell of a ride.
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THE ATLC RIDGE EXTENDING FROM 29N65W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA
WILL LIFT N FROM 30N65W TO CENTRAL FLORIDA MON AND TUE. THE
RIDGE THEN WILL RETREAT NE WED AND THU AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
MOVES INTO THE FAR NW WATERS AND A WEAK TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE
NW BAHAMAS.

I'm looking and looking at this and wondering how much the performance of this front / trough is going to influence the encroachment of 94L into Bahamian waters .. .. . .
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Quoting BahaHurican:
Nice, Oz.

Someone was speculating here earlier whether u would go to Cabo SL for Jimena.....


Well yes, I am booked to leave Albuquerque for Cabo San Lucas tomorrow morning at 6 AM.

I'll advise later if we're able to provide a live web cam on XtremeHurricanes.com.
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Quoting StormW:
Be back later.

Looking at shortwave IR2...looks like 94L trying to reform COC just a little NNE.
hmmm, if so, alomost falls in line with the two models with the "z" signature...
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I think that we are underestimating the strength of the high and the weakness of the trough
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Quoting hunkerdown:
I see you are right on the cusp of being almost, definitely pretty sure of being positive without a doubt :)
LMAO!
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I am also working in Port of Spain. You know we only need a little rain for the place to get flooded out. As you said this system is so large, I believe that either way, we will be dealing with some bad weather. I will be listening to the 7:00 o'clock news tonight to see if the local mets will mention anything about 94L. It's now about 3 mins. away, so I am signing out to go look at the news. Will be back later. Nice meeting you though.
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2038. flsky
Interesting story on the news just now about there being only two Level 1 trauma centers in Houston. They mentioned that there used to be a 3rd in Galveston, but that it is no more after last year's hurricane. Trauma patients are dying b/c Houston cannot afford another trauma center. Just goes to show how the weather has long-reaching effects.
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94 has the potential to be a real monster and hit the US. That is why we watch invest like it, but hopefully it will just be potential... if moves more west than west by northwest over the next day or two and develops at all watch out.
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Quoting canesrule1:
My Percentages!!!!!

Based on 18z models

1. Out-to-sea: 51%

2. Eastern U.S coast: 49%

3. Caribbean: 0%
I see you are right on the cusp of being almost, definitely pretty sure of being positive without a doubt :)
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2034. Patrap
94L Floater - Dvorak Color Infrared Loop
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128630
94L is an extremely large storm.....
Member Since: June 29, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 5313
2032. JLPR
the 850mb vorticity does look more circular

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Quoting StormW:


You mean that grey looking band?


yes StormW, thats what i was talking about
Member Since: August 18, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 201
Hurricane Gilbert
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2029. IKE
Quoting mikatnight:


See, shows what I know. I thought it looked better, I mean, I can easily see the center now and it looks more structured. No, eh?


Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
My Percentages!!!!!

Based on 18z models

1. Out-to-sea: 51%

2. Eastern U.S coast: 49%

3. Caribbean: 0%
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2027. JLPR
Quoting hunkerdown:
Should have stopped while you were ahead, thats an ULL, not developing. Oh, and its Puerto Rico.


THANK YOU! xD
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Quoting Eagle300:
How do you pronounce the name of the hurricane in the EPAC?
Here is the NHC guide.
Member Since: September 1, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1344
2025. unf97
Quoting cycloone:
anyone think 94 could be a us major??


It is far too early to speculate on this. A better time to ask this question would be around Wednesday at the earliest.
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2024. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
South Pacific hurricane season doesn't really start until around October though.

The Indian Ocean invest near Pakistan, you mean?
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2023. Patrap
94L Floater - Rainbow Color Infrared Loop
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128630
Quoting Patrap:

Wow it almost looks like it is going north in the last few images.
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The upcoming QuickScat pass should give a good idea of the surface organization, see if the circulation has become more circular.
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 11210
Quoting gordydunnot:
I think you are right Kman it looks on the last few frames that shear may be coming into play. Like most systems this year, appears to have multiple centers. Because all the different winds flows aloft seem to be inhibiting formation. I still think system above Porto Rico looks interesting. But if it did develop I believe it would make hard right just before Fl.
Should have stopped while you were ahead, thats an ULL, not developing. Oh, and its Puerto Rico.
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Quoting cycloone:
anyone think 94 could be a us major??
it is possible, but not 100%.
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Quoting Eagle300:
How do you pronounce the name of the hurricane in the EPAC?


Its Spanish. Here is the NHC pronunciation.

Jimena he-MAY-na
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2017. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Jimena is pronounced as 'he-may-na'
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MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
335 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2009



A 1007 MB LOW...WITH A HIGH CHANCE OF THIS
SYSTEM DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...IS OBSERVED E OF THE AREA NEAR 11N48W AT 1800
UTC WITH A PRES OF 1007 MB. IT IS MOVING WNW ABOUT 13 KT. THE
LOW IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR 14N52W EARLY MON AFTERNOON...NEAR
15N53W EARLY TUE AFTERNOON...THEN NEAR 19N60W WED...AND IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FAR NW PORTION OF
THE TROPICAL N ATLC THU AND INTO THE FAR SE WATERS OF THE SW N
ATLC LATE THU AND FRI. INTERESTS ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS LOW.

IN THE MEANTIME...A LARGE AREA OF 20 TO 25 KT WINDS AND SEAS IN
THE 8 TO 12 FT RANGE WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW MAINLY ON
THE N SEMICIRCLE DUE TO THE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW
AND THE AZORES-BERMUDA HIGH. BUOY 41040 IS CURRENTLY REPORTING
NE 15 KT WINDS WITH SEAS OF 8 FT. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT PATTERN IS
OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA.

SW N ATLC S OF 31N AND W OF 65W...
THE ATLC RIDGE EXTENDING FROM 29N65W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA
WILL LIFT N FROM 30N65W TO CENTRAL FLORIDA MON AND TUE. THE
RIDGE THEN WILL RETREAT NE WED AND THU AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
MOVES INTO THE FAR NW WATERS AND A WEAK TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE
NW BAHAMAS. A BELT OF E TO SE WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT IS FORECAST
TO PERSIST S OF 22N AND E OF THE BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS. WINDS WILL BRIEFLY VEER TO THE N AND NE OVER THE FAR NW
WATERS BY TUE DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE
TROPICAL LOW MENTIONED ABOVE UNDER CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC
IS FORECAST TO POSSIBLY ENTER THE FAR SE WATERS LATE THU INTO
FRI AS A POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THIS COULD HAVE MAJOR
IMPLICATIONS WITH RESPECT TO CHANGING WIND AND SEAS FOR THIS
PORTION OF THIS ZONE. WILL HAVE TO WAIT TO SEE WHETHER THIS
SYSTEM UNDERGOES A DEVELOPING TREND DURING THE NEXT 48-72W HOURS
TO GET A BETTER HANDLE ON CHANGES REQUIRED FOR WINDS AND SEAS
FOR THOSE WATERS.


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Jimena outer band just showing up on Cuyutlan Mexico radar

Link
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2014. 7544
looking at the models when tis does become a td the cone should be interesting to see from the nhc
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2013. Dakster
94L looks like at least a TD. I know it doesn't have all of the "Features", but it has to be close. It certainly seems to be getting itself together.
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1999. HGW

Did u look at the invest in the Indian Ocean? I noted earlier today that SPac was the only basin without any tropical area of interest....
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Quoting Patrap:
94L Floater - RGB Color Infrared Loop
Quoting PalmBeachWeatherBoy:
94L is the coolest looking naked swirl i have seen in a while. if it had this swirl and convection with it, it would be a masterpiece(in a bad way).


The RGB is what made me think 94L was doing well...
btw - PBWB, I'm in Lantana...
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anyone think 94 could be a us major??
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Quoting BahaHurican:
I would be less surprised to see a named storm tomorrow sometime than a yellow circle, anyway. I'd been rooting for the named storm, but now I'm not so keen on it, given the likelihood of some parts of the Lesser Antilles feeling its effect. Best hope now is destruction in the ECar. But I'm not keen on that path either, given possibilities for regeneration in the WCar.

[sigh]


Baha,


we desperately need some rain and 92L did a good job now 94L may relieve out water levels which have suffered this rainy season.

My biggest fear tho is that we get too much. But what can we ask for now. Every hope and wish has ties.

Rain or no rain tho, 94L seems to affects our weather.

I had it goin out to sea last tuesday.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Quoting Patrap:
That's a Upper Level Low Pressure Vortex north of 94L,its also aiding 94L some in Venting the outflow on the N side of 94L



thank you :)
Member Since: August 18, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 201

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.