Invest 94L and the Lesser Antilles

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 9:51 AM GMT on August 30, 2009

Share this Blog
1
+

Hi, this is Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Dr. Masters. The convection associated with Invest 94L has intensified, prompting the NHC to issue an early Tropical Weather Outlook to update the situation. Essentially, people in the Lesser Antilles need to start paying attention to the seas and skies. Looking at the computer track models, the set of model solutions are fairly similar to the Saturday model runs. A set of dynamical models (GFDL, HWRF, NOGAPS) runs to the NE of the Antilles, while the simpler models (LBAR, BAM family) are more easterly and take 94L over the Antilles. I do not ascribe any significance to the 00Z GFS track following the simpler models over the dynamical models. From my examination of the 00Z GFS run, it looks like the simulated 94L weakens too much, so the automatic vortex tracker picks up another vorticity feature. As for the future of 94L, there is a large area of large wind shear to it's north. It will need to keep it's track at WNW-W for intensification.

Update at 6AM EDT
I would be remiss if I didn't mention the major hurricane in the Eastern Pacific, Jimena At this time, Jimena has a satellite-estimated maximum wind speed of 115 mph, making it a Category 3 storm on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Jimena has an impressive presentation in satellite imagery with a large area of cold anvil cirrus in the center of the storm. The following microwave imagery indicate the formation of a relatively potent central eyewall, which is responsible for intensification.


Fig. 1 SSMI 85 GHz PCT at 0244Z Aug 30. Image courtesy of NRL.


People along the western coast of Mexico and along along the Baja need to pay close attention to this dangerous storm. I emphasize that using the current track and intensity forecast, Jimena will be a Category 4 storm when it approaches the tip of Baja and a Category 3 storm when it makes landfall up the coast.

It is worth noting that if Jimena follows the more easterly tracks presented in the computer track forecasts, the remnants of Jimena could impact NM and western Texas.


I'll update this entry further in response to 94L's development.


Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 2108 - 2058

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63 | 64 | 65 | 66Blog Index

Quoting homelesswanderer:




This is next Sunday. Can anybody tell me where the southern edge of the ridge is? I see the big high in the NE. But is its southern edge north or south of the trough? These things are confusing.


You can see a bigger picture with this image
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2107. edmac
I do not beleive 94l will be a fish, as so many are saying. The more W, or WNW it moves the the worse it is for CONUS, IMO.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Did Ozzie post his video on You Tube?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2105. Relix
Quoting Eagle300:


I think that we can both agree that the structure of 94L is pretty solid. Where do you see the possible center relocation? Wouldn't it make sense that because the structure is strong, it wouldn't need to relocate? It really isn't as if there is any stronger convection for it to go under.
Thanks.


It's solid, but the low is actually more to the north now. You can see that in the turning and the vorticity maps.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting kmanislander:


I don't know if I would agree with that. The cloud field is expanding, not contracting which tells me that the divergence at lower levels is waning. It is starting to look more like an open wave but hopefully Quikscat will tell us what is going on at the surface.

Most of the circulation we are seeing now is in the mid levels which is displaced from the surface low. The low itself is not producing much in the way of new convection so I don't see any improvement until things change.

It is a much weaker and less impressive system than this morning IMO which means a more possible Westward motion.

Out for dinner but will be back later.


Some good observations, but many were trying to say it was an open wave last night too. We'll see.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
JMA's lastest on Krovanh:





2245UTC(6:45PM EDT)
33.2N 139.9E
10min Winds:70 MPH
Moving N at 12 MPH
Pressure: 975 MB
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Lastly Hunker, I looked at vorticity before I posted there is some small vorticity all the way down to 800 mb level albeit very marginal. It wouldn't be the first time something worked to the surface.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I agree with Extreme236... too early to say its all over for 94L.. and just because low with a COC finally forms north to northeast does not mean it will be heading any particular direction.. once there is a COC we will need to track this storm for a short while to see what direction it takes.. it it heads west from there watch out.. if nw or nw by north.. breath a sign of relief. anywhere in the west by northwest and we will need to watch and see what happens imo.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Weather456:
The structure remains very well define, the convection is lacking.

Ut oh.

Last imagery I saw looking like this went on to become some pretty hefty tropical cyclones.... that looks like a consolidating TS to me...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Drakoen:
All the models agree on a trough in the east which would protect the U.S.A from a land-falling system


Yes....but it is too early to say if that will ultimately end up verifying or not.
Member Since: June 29, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 5313
Quoting Tazmanian:
94L is RIP


Based on what logic please? I mean if you feel so sure about something you need to make the case so everyone else will understan your point. Otherwise you are just acting like a troll and that is no Joke....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Weather456:
The structure remains very well define, the convection is lacking.



I don't know if I would agree with that. The cloud field is expanding, not contracting which tells me that the divergence at lower levels is waning. It is starting to look more like an open wave but hopefully Quikscat will tell us what is going on at the surface.

Most of the circulation we are seeing now is in the mid levels which is displaced from the surface low. The low itself is not producing much in the way of new convection so I don't see any improvement until things change.

It is a much weaker and less impressive system than this morning IMO which means a more possible Westward motion.

Out for dinner but will be back later.
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15816




This is next Sunday. Can anybody tell me where the southern edge of the ridge is? I see the big high in the NE. But is its southern edge north or south of the trough? These things are confusing.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2093. edmac
If 94l stays weak it will follow the low steering current, which would take further into the Carribean.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Relix:
94L will be missing the antilles if it keeps its current trend. Not impressed by it either. Now now, I am no westcaster, wishcaster, fishcaster, etc, but 94L seems to be bound to be a fish thanks to the throughs. I analyzed the satellites, steering layers and other stuff. It also seems its relocating its COC to the north which definitely put us in the Antilles in a better location in regards to the path of the system.

If not, like I say, I'll eat crow, but if the current trend continues only the greater antilles (PR and Virgin Islands) should feel some minimal effects, AKA Rain and some gusts.


I think that we can both agree that the structure of 94L is pretty solid. Where do you see the possible center relocation? Wouldn't it make sense that because the structure is strong, it wouldn't need to relocate? It really isn't as if there is any stronger convection for it to go under.
Thanks.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
One thing the NHC has not patented is forcast intensity. It looks like it is stalling on intensity which pushes it on the present course, right?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Large system creating its own environment,takes a period of time to develop since its massive size,30knt shear in front of it and no signs of decreasing,convection disapearing,should move into slightly more warmer waters in the next 1-2 days,models are spreading out all over like real spaghetti,Durinal Max should flare convection back in again and start whole process again tomorrow like today?
Member Since: May 16, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 684
Quoting CycloneOz:


Well yes, I am booked to leave Albuquerque for Cabo San Lucas tomorrow morning at 6 AM.

I'll advise later if we're able to provide a live web cam on XtremeHurricanes.com.
LOL

Should have known...... lol

If u can't stream live, whatever blogging u do would be great!

Quoting hunkerdown:
you are giving far too much credit, he said the system north of 94L looks better, which would be the ULL. And do you REALLY think he was using an "old English" spelling as opposed to flat out mis-spelling ?
Well, I had to read another blogger's post 5x, then repunctuate it myself earlier today to even figure out what was meant. That gordy post seemed pretty obviously talking about 94L to me. [shrugs] I could be wrong. But lots of people here write bad or even incorrect English on a regular basis. I'm not going to get hung up over a mispelling that obviously approximates the English sound of that name.

YMMV
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting mobilegirl81:

If it stays weak, will that affect where it moves?


possible, the NW turn is actually a result of the system getting deep.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
looking at Jimena, and the track & intensity, its not going to be nice for those on the peninsula. Can someone tell me what its like there? many people? development etc? I don't think they are used to hurricanes, as the historical tracks show none with this strength ever hitting in this area.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Tazmanian:
94L is RIP


So do you think it will be orange, yellow or gone at 8:00?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2085. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
gasp! people are RIP'ing 94L already O_O
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I think it's time for 94L to begin firing storms on the infrared.
Member Since: September 30, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1606
Quoting Weather456:
The structure remains very well define, the convection is lacking.


If it stays weak, will that affect where it moves?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2082. Relix
Quoting Tazmanian:
94L is RIP


You and Ike were yelling this to the 6th Heaven like 2 days ago. Stop it.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting extreme236:


No its not, stop saying that.




i was kinding lol
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2080. Relix
94L will be missing the antilles if it keeps its current trend. Not impressed by it either. Now now, I am no westcaster, wishcaster, fishcaster, etc, but 94L seems to be bound to be a fish thanks to the throughs. I analyzed the satellites, steering layers and other stuff. It also seems its relocating its COC to the north which definitely put us in the Antilles in a better location in regards to the path of the system.

If not, like I say, I'll eat crow, but if the current trend continues only the greater antilles (PR and Virgin Islands) should feel some minimal effects, AKA Rain and some gusts.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Tazmanian:
94L is RIP
ROFLMAO!!!!!!!!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Tazmanian:
94L is RIP


XD

You said this 48 HOURS AGO
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I am putting my money on the high/ridge being more prevalent than the trough. Its happened more than the other.imo the high will be dominant, just seen it happen more, especially 2004.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Tazmanian:
94L is RIP


No its not, stop saying that.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
The structure remains very well define, the convection is lacking.

Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
2074. LBAR
Some of the moisture from Jimena (Hee-Maine-Uh) should make it up towards California, Arizona, and New Mexico, though. Great news!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting LightningCharmer:
Look forward to your videos. Be safe.
If we get any hurricanes here is Miami, I will be outside posting winds, temperatures, and more! I will also have videos posted to my Youtube page, and on this website.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
94L is RIP
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Hunker sorry about the Puerto Rico spelling. Spell check was wrong should have ignored. I see its at least a mid level low though . Although I still apologize to anyone from Puerto Rico.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting LBAR:


I love the LBAR, hence my name!

94L will begin a more NW motion due to the Coriolis effect. These type of tracks make me extremely nervous for Bahamas and East Coast.


Track has less to do with coriolis effect and more to do with it's ability to initiate systems by literally causing a cluster of thunderstorms to spin (create cyclonic rotation)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Wow now the convection is disapearing, here comes the RIP force later tonight.
Member Since: May 16, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 684
My new public advisory for Krovanh
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I know an actual Jimena. Her name the way even she pronounces is "Him-en-ah"
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
ok thank you.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting BahaHurican:
I thought he meant 94L once it got north of PR, not that ULL; and Porto is an old-fashioned English way of spelling that island's name.

you are giving far too much credit, he said the system north of 94L looks better, which would be the ULL. And do you REALLY think he was using an "old English" spelling as opposed to flat out mis-spelling ?
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2515
Quoting CycloneOz:


Well yes, I am booked to leave Albuquerque for Cabo San Lucas tomorrow morning at 6 AM.

I'll advise later if we're able to provide a live web cam on XtremeHurricanes.com.
Look forward to your coverage. Be safe.
Member Since: September 1, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1314
2063. ackee
seem like 94L going being shear apart that would be a good thing
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting vince1966:
Now that's better, these tracks are more believable. Great job, HAWHAW.


haha i try to keep some humor on here
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/wv-l.jpg

Is the center of circulation and low somewhere around 13 N and 49 W for 94? If so, I would be willing to bet we have a tropical depression before long.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Underestimating it?They were right about the strong trough with Bill and Danny.
Member Since: May 16, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 684
HGW,

That's the one I meant. I haven't looked at it since this a.m., though.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2058. Drakoen
All the models agree on a trough in the east which would protect the U.S.A from a land-falling system
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30489

Viewing: 2108 - 2058

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63 | 64 | 65 | 66Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.