Invest 94L and the Lesser Antilles

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 9:51 AM GMT on August 30, 2009

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Hi, this is Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Dr. Masters. The convection associated with Invest 94L has intensified, prompting the NHC to issue an early Tropical Weather Outlook to update the situation. Essentially, people in the Lesser Antilles need to start paying attention to the seas and skies. Looking at the computer track models, the set of model solutions are fairly similar to the Saturday model runs. A set of dynamical models (GFDL, HWRF, NOGAPS) runs to the NE of the Antilles, while the simpler models (LBAR, BAM family) are more easterly and take 94L over the Antilles. I do not ascribe any significance to the 00Z GFS track following the simpler models over the dynamical models. From my examination of the 00Z GFS run, it looks like the simulated 94L weakens too much, so the automatic vortex tracker picks up another vorticity feature. As for the future of 94L, there is a large area of large wind shear to it's north. It will need to keep it's track at WNW-W for intensification.

Update at 6AM EDT
I would be remiss if I didn't mention the major hurricane in the Eastern Pacific, Jimena At this time, Jimena has a satellite-estimated maximum wind speed of 115 mph, making it a Category 3 storm on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Jimena has an impressive presentation in satellite imagery with a large area of cold anvil cirrus in the center of the storm. The following microwave imagery indicate the formation of a relatively potent central eyewall, which is responsible for intensification.


Fig. 1 SSMI 85 GHz PCT at 0244Z Aug 30. Image courtesy of NRL.


People along the western coast of Mexico and along along the Baja need to pay close attention to this dangerous storm. I emphasize that using the current track and intensity forecast, Jimena will be a Category 4 storm when it approaches the tip of Baja and a Category 3 storm when it makes landfall up the coast.

It is worth noting that if Jimena follows the more easterly tracks presented in the computer track forecasts, the remnants of Jimena could impact NM and western Texas.


I'll update this entry further in response to 94L's development.


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Lets try this again:

looking at Jimena, and the track & intensity, its not going to be nice for those on the peninsula. Can someone tell me what its like there? many people? development etc? I don't think they are used to hurricanes, as the historical tracks show none with this strength ever hitting in this area.

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2157. Relix
Also, it's moving nearly NW right now right? Or is the mess of convection fooling me? Geesh I've been following the system since 8AM XD!!
Member Since: August 3, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2741
000
ABNT20 KNHC 302331
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 850 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS HAVE
DECREASED DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS STILL APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM
HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR SO AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 15 MPH. THERE IS
A HIGH CHANCE...GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...OF TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION IN THIS AREA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. INTERESTS IN THE
LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/BRENNAN
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
000
ABNT20 KNHC 302331
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 850 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS HAVE
DECREASED DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS STILL APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM
HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR SO AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 15 MPH. THERE IS
A HIGH CHANCE...GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...OF TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION IN THIS AREA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. INTERESTS IN THE
LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/BRENNAN


Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 11307
WOW


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Quoting mobilegirl81:
Current intensity, direction, and imo ,a high that is very unpredictable, expect this storm to follow a track like Lili 2002, Ivan 2004, Camille 1969, Gustav 2008, Georges 1998.
If you are correct Mobilegirl, then we may be in for a ride wouldn't you say..i hope you are wrong though...
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2151. Relix
Quoting AllStar17:


It is not as far away from TD status as you think


Convection is weak though, especially over the center. NHC always looks forward to that so that's the reason I think they won't be naming it tonight. My forecast has been butchered.. DAAARN YOU MOTHERNATURE!!
Member Since: August 3, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2741
Quoting cchsweatherman:


That shear is due to the upper level anticyclone protecting Invest 94L and its interaction with an upper level low well to the north. Invest 94L will never encounter this shear as the upper-level anticyclone will be moving in tandem with the system.


Correct....do you ultimately think this WILL form?
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Quoting SavannahStorm:


lol, how do you think they feel in Aruba?


How about we take the smallest island and put all of them on it and take away all the boats and planes so they can't come off...lol
Member Since: August 18, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 201
Quoting cchsweatherman:


That shear is due to the upper level anticyclone protecting Invest 94L and its interaction with an upper level low well to the north. Invest 94L will never encounter this shear as the upper-level anticyclone will be moving in tandem with the system.


my extact words
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Quoting homelesswanderer:


Thank you NRT. :) This will probably be wrong but I'll give it a shot. It looks like the highs are meeting with a weakness over the Bahamas?


That weakness near the Bahamas is 94L.
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 11307
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Pretty strong shear out ahead of 94L. Even with the anticyclone it may have trouble.



That shear is due to the upper level anticyclone protecting Invest 94L and its interaction with an upper level low well to the north. Invest 94L will never encounter this shear as the upper-level anticyclone will be moving in tandem with the system.
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94L will explode again after 2AM! Be patient
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Quoting Relix:


Hey I am not a RIP force member lol. I am just saying it's looking very bad at the moment... and I am sightly pissed because my forecast was for it to become a TD tonight and it's nowhere near that status =P. It could mount a comeback tomorrow, let's see how it makes use of DMAX.


It is not as far away from TD status as you think
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(First post here hehe)
Krovanh seem to have an eye (or eye-like feature) after it reached it's peak.

And:
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 30/2100Z 16.6N 106.8W 120 KT
12HR VT 31/0600Z 17.3N 107.7W 125 KT
24HR VT 31/1800Z 18.7N 108.7W 125 KT
36HR VT 01/0600Z 20.6N 110.0W 125 KT
48HR VT 01/1800Z 22.6N 110.8W 115 KT
72HR VT 02/1800Z 26.5N 112.5W 75 KT...INLAND

96HR VT 03/1800Z 28.0N 114.0W 50 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 04/1800Z 28.5N 115.0W 25 KT

That can't be good...
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Quoting TriniGirl26:
i said it this morning i will say it again....the Met Office in Trinidad is a waste of time and money !!!!


lol, how do you think they feel in Aruba?
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:
I love how people repeatedly say how bad 94L looks. Say it once and move on...
Wouldn;t the same go for the people touting it over and over (not picking on you for doing this but just stating what is good for the goose...)
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2515
Quoting DestinJeff:


there is an isobar with a 1016 on it, which is high pressure. that i think reflects the extent of the ridge, although a storm may penetrate that somewhat, so don't view that line as a path it would take


Ah ok. Thanks. :)
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Looking at the latest models, I am starting to think that if 94L doesn't get ripped appart by high wind shear it will eventually make its way to the Hebert's box and then Florida. Yes I dare to say that and yes it will all depend on how it develops. The fact that the models shifted more to the west is because no matter how much NHC has been saying it has been moving to the NW it has actually been moving due WEST. I think there is a possibility that it is starting to take the turn for what I sau in the lates satellite. This is my take on this. I would be getting ready if I was FLorida. No panic necessary though.
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i said it this morning i will say it again....the Met Office in Trinidad is a waste of time and money !!!!
Member Since: August 18, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 201
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


You can see a bigger picture with this image


Thank you NRT. :) This will probably be wrong but I'll give it a shot. It looks like the highs are meeting with a weakness over the Bahamas?
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Quoting cchsweatherman:
The latest microwave imagery from the NAVY Tropical Cyclone page shows a well-defined and organized low-level structure with Invest 94L. You can clearly see this with the obvious spiral banding pattern around the circulation. Right now, microwave imagery doesn't show a defined circulation center, but it does show a well-defined circulation.



No....no...no, CCHS!!! Remember it is looking very bad ATM according to some....LOL!
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cycloneoz Is there a link to watch your very interesting looking video? I am not seeing it. Thanks I have been looking forward to seeing your Bill footage you were talking about
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I love how people repeatedly say how bad 94L looks. Say it once and move on...
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2128. Relix
Quoting AllStar17:


Oh...come on! Then what did it look like last night? How many times will it take a disturbance to lose convection during DMIN, only to make a large comeback during DMAX to nail that fact through your head?


Hey I am not a RIP force member lol. I am just saying it's looking very bad at the moment... and I am sightly pissed because my forecast was for it to become a TD tonight and it's nowhere near that status =P. It could mount a comeback tomorrow, let's see how it makes use of DMAX.
Member Since: August 3, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2741
A good way to think of 94L is as a skeleton. It's bones are strong. It just doesn't have any meat.
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Quoting gordydunnot:
Lastly Hunker, I looked at vorticity before I posted there is some small vorticity all the way down to 800 mb level albeit very marginal. It wouldn't be the first time something worked to the surface.
BTW, no attack on you was meant by any of my comments. They were just commenst and clarification. As to your current statement (bolded), I agree but I don't see it happening here. And yes, I could be wrong, but my money would be on no development of the ULL.
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2515
OK. Here is OPC's take on 96-hrs.



Looking at that trough and high, we may end up seeing only enough lifting to move it past the Antilles.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22687


MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOW
NEAR 140 MPH...220 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. JIMENA IS A CATEGORY
FOUR HURRICANE


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Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Pretty strong shear out ahead of 94L. Even with the anticyclone it may have trouble.



GFS-based SHIPS still keeps low shear over it...anticyclone looks to keep it safe.
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The latest microwave imagery from the NAVY Tropical Cyclone page shows a well-defined and organized low-level structure with Invest 94L. You can clearly see this with the obvious spiral banding pattern around the circulation. Right now, microwave imagery doesn't show a defined circulation center, but it does show a well-defined circulation.

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Quoting Relix:
Wow 94L is really looking VERY bad....


Oh...come on! Then what did it look like last night? How many times will it take a disturbance to lose convection during DMIN, only to make a large comeback during DMAX to nail that fact through your head?
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2120. Relix


Looking pathetic ATM
Member Since: August 3, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2741
Pretty strong shear out ahead of 94L. Even with the anticyclone it may have trouble.

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Quoting Relix:


It's solid, but the low is actually more to the north now. You can see that in the turning and the vorticity maps.


Ok thanks.
Is this what you are referring to?
and
this?
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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


So do you think it will be orange, yellow or gone at 8:00?



i will be red or orange at 8pm
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115437
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94L 24 hr loop reveals it has not lost but rather gained organization for most of today.

Moving wnw

Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
2114. edmac
I agree.
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2113. Relix
Wow 94L is really looking VERY bad....
Member Since: August 3, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2741
Quoting LightningCharmer:
Look forward to your coverage. Be safe.


These little mean Charley-like storms get me all puckered up. Even though it's still a pretty small storm, I will be expecting Jimena to put a whallop on CaboSL. I am taking my Category V CycloneOz hurricane suit configuration.

This one's going to be scarey...
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Quoting BahaHurican:
LOL

Should have known...... lol

If u can't stream live, whatever blogging u do would be great!

Well, I had to read another blogger's post 5x, then repunctuate it myself earlier today to even figure out what was meant. That gordy post seemed pretty obviously talking about 94L to me. [shrugs] I could be wrong. But lots of people here write bad or even incorrect English on a regular basis. I'm not going to get hung up over a mispelling that obviously approximates the English sound of that name.

YMMV


Porto is correct Portuguese. It was Portuguese for much of its existence.
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Current intensity, direction, and imo ,a high that is very unpredictable, expect this storm to follow a track like Lili 2002, Ivan 2004, Camille 1969, Gustav 2008, Georges 1998.
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***Backup GRAPHICS UPDATE***
I don't like them, but these are Microsoft Office 2003 graphics, as opposed to the 2007 ones I have been making and posting. My computer is being used, so I can not make 2007 graphics....and for the time being I have to use 2003 to generate graphics.........I don't like them, but at least it is something.

HURRICANE JIMENA 5 pm EDT Advisory Storm Track:

ALL INTERESTS IN BAJA CALIFORNIA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS JIMENA. HURRICANE WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.
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Quoting homelesswanderer:




This is next Sunday. Can anybody tell me where the southern edge of the ridge is? I see the big high in the NE. But is its southern edge north or south of the trough? These things are confusing.


You can see a bigger picture with this image
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 11307

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.