Invest 94L and the Lesser Antilles

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 9:51 AM GMT on August 30, 2009

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Hi, this is Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Dr. Masters. The convection associated with Invest 94L has intensified, prompting the NHC to issue an early Tropical Weather Outlook to update the situation. Essentially, people in the Lesser Antilles need to start paying attention to the seas and skies. Looking at the computer track models, the set of model solutions are fairly similar to the Saturday model runs. A set of dynamical models (GFDL, HWRF, NOGAPS) runs to the NE of the Antilles, while the simpler models (LBAR, BAM family) are more easterly and take 94L over the Antilles. I do not ascribe any significance to the 00Z GFS track following the simpler models over the dynamical models. From my examination of the 00Z GFS run, it looks like the simulated 94L weakens too much, so the automatic vortex tracker picks up another vorticity feature. As for the future of 94L, there is a large area of large wind shear to it's north. It will need to keep it's track at WNW-W for intensification.

Update at 6AM EDT
I would be remiss if I didn't mention the major hurricane in the Eastern Pacific, Jimena At this time, Jimena has a satellite-estimated maximum wind speed of 115 mph, making it a Category 3 storm on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Jimena has an impressive presentation in satellite imagery with a large area of cold anvil cirrus in the center of the storm. The following microwave imagery indicate the formation of a relatively potent central eyewall, which is responsible for intensification.


Fig. 1 SSMI 85 GHz PCT at 0244Z Aug 30. Image courtesy of NRL.


People along the western coast of Mexico and along along the Baja need to pay close attention to this dangerous storm. I emphasize that using the current track and intensity forecast, Jimena will be a Category 4 storm when it approaches the tip of Baja and a Category 3 storm when it makes landfall up the coast.

It is worth noting that if Jimena follows the more easterly tracks presented in the computer track forecasts, the remnants of Jimena could impact NM and western Texas.


I'll update this entry further in response to 94L's development.


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2208. 19N81W
where is 94L going?
It kinda looks like the COC is starting to make that turn NW...we could handle the rain we are in the driest year in history to date...but a storm would but us away..
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Quoting Weather456:
nothing's working with 94L. Testing the best of abilities. But what if the QS is correct.


crazy 94L... it does want it want to do
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Quoting Grothar:


See it. Do you have any info on the blob mentioned by GeoffreyWPB in 2172?


nothing will happen, its being ripped by shear
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2205. Grothar
Quoting Drakoen:
quickscat has a center near 12N 51W. The system, however, is very broad and multiple vortices are present.


See it. Do you have any info on the blob mentioned by GeoffreyWPB in 2172?
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trying to tell me 11N 51W??? no way jose.
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2203. Relix
Quoting zoomiami:
Relix & W456 - why do you have that reaction to the quiksat? It would be great if you could explain a little, might help the rest of us trying to follow along.

TIA


We expected the COC to be far more to the north than that, at 11N it puts the Antilles in an almost sure-line of fire. Drakoen says 12N but... hmm... where the winds converge is at 11N or sightly more than that in my opinion. It's also elongated, but with DMAX coming it should get its game back.
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Quoting Drakoen:
quickscat has a center near 12N 51W. The system, however, is very broad and multiple vortices are present.
Quoting Funkadelic:
As of 7:40pm. 94L is clearly moving NW, with limited convestion. It still has a great shape, and therefor all it needs is convection from D-max and we will see a TD by monday night.


Maybe it is moving NW but the latest quikscat shows a center @12N51W ... still pretty south
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Quoting cchsweatherman:
Based upon the latest QuikSCAT data, I would say the new circulation center exists between 10.5 and 11N and around 51W. This would really throw another wrench into the crazy puzzle called Invest 94L.
what kind of wrench might we be looking at then cch...TIA
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Quoting zoomiami:
Relix & W456 - why do you have that reaction to the quiksat? It would be great if you could explain a little, might help the rest of us trying to follow along.

TIA


That is rather far SW of satellite estimates. well off any official guidance. This would mean 94L has move west and that what we were tracking was MLC which is well towards the NE, indicating the system is not vertically stacked.

Also the models are now useless since they intialised the area much further east.

Something's off somewhere.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Quoting CycloneOz:
VerizonWireless just confirmed that they are too expensive to use the broadband card for the live hurricane webcam.

Upon my arrival in CaboSL, I shall attempt to connect the webcam via any existing wi-fi I can find.

Updates to come...standby.

Experience Hurricane Bill has successfully uploaded to YouTube and is now being processed.

Updates to come...standby....


Can't wait to see your vids, CycloneOz!

Just a question, though, if you don't mind telling us. How do you fund your excursions? I wish I could hop on a plane whenever and document landfalling hurricanes. That would be quite the life!
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Quoting Funkadelic:
As of 7:40pm. 94L is clearly moving NW, with limited convestion. It still has a great shape, and therefor all it needs is convection from D-max and we will see a TD by monday night.


I agree
Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 667
Based upon the latest QuikSCAT data, I would say the new circulation center exists between 10.5 and 11N and around 51W. This would really throw another wrench into the crazy puzzle called Invest 94L.
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Quoting BrockBerlin:


Then why don't you let my opinion "fly"
possibly just state it and move on please and not shoot everyone else down as you have been doing...
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Drak - aren't the multiple vortices usually a sign of it trying to consolidate around the dominant spin?
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cyclone what do you believe Jimena's intensity will be at landfall on the Baja (assuming it does)?
Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 667
Quoting cchsweatherman:


If you look at the latest wind shear maps, you can see the upper-level anticyclone establishing itself over Invest 94L. So, to answer your question, it has already formed.


I meant do you think 94L will become a cyclone and of what strength? Sorry for the confusion. The SHIPS is very agressive with the system.
Member Since: June 29, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 5315
Quoting KATRINABILOXIGIRL:
Oh forgive me, I forgot that we were all condsidered westcasters last night...none of us, I repeat NONE of us no where it is going as of yet so let everyones opinions fly without all the downcasting remarks please...


Then why don't you let my opinion "fly"
Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 667
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Wow, looks much healthier than this morning.
Defiantly tightened up throughout the day.

But there is another COC to the north, now we have to see which one will battle it out to become dominate. Either that or a COC relocation is taking place.
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As of 7:40pm. 94L is clearly moving NW, with limited convestion. It still has a great shape, and therefor all it needs is convection from D-max and we will see a TD by monday night.
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Relix & W456 - why do you have that reaction to the quiksat? It would be great if you could explain a little, might help the rest of us trying to follow along.

TIA
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2188. Drakoen
quickscat has a center near 12N 51W. The system, however, is very broad and multiple vortices are present.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30614
2187. JamesSA
Quoting Relix:


11.0N
51W?

That can't be correct... or good if true =(


That is about what I see too.
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nothing's working with 94L. Testing the best of abilities. But what if the QS is correct.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Quoting Weather456:
WTH



dang quick scat.
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Quoting GeorgefromLosCabos:
We just got our first rain from "Jimena"... local people just started shopping, l8ter photos and video before, during and after Jimena.


What is the average house, town, building structure out there. Can the place handle a strong storm? Just wandering never been there and the only photos I have seen were from tourist either golfing or at Hagars bar drinking.
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Quoting Weather456:
WTH



that has to be wrong... there is no spin or vorticity there at all.
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2182. JRRP
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scary storm right here. Jimena is even crazier, i hope it weakens before it hits the baja.

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VerizonWireless just confirmed that they are too expensive to use the broadband card for the live hurricane webcam.

Upon my arrival in CaboSL, I shall attempt to connect the webcam via any existing wi-fi I can find.

Updates to come...standby.

Experience Hurricane Bill has successfully uploaded to YouTube and is now being processed.

Updates to come...standby....
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Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Based on the latest quikscat the center seems elongated and ready to cross 50W.
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2178. Relix
Quoting Weather456:
WTH



My same reaction lol
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2177. Relix
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


11.0N
51W?

That can't be correct... or good if true =(
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Quoting BrockBerlin:
Mobilegirl I would say that this storm is highly unlikely to have a track similar to any of those systems.
Oh forgive me, I forgot that we were all condsidered westcasters last night...none of us, I repeat NONE of us no where it is going as of yet so let everyones opinions fly without all the downcasting remarks please...
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WTH

Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


wow that close...
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Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


That weakness near the Bahamas is 94L.


Oooh. Ok. Didn't recognize it. :) Duh. Lol. Thanks. I thought it should be on there somewhere.
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GOM blobiness..

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Remains RED as expected at 8pm TWO
Member Since: June 29, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 5315
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Hunker thanks for the response at least we are not going on about Language lessons.
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Quoting Relix:
Also, it's moving nearly NW right now right? Or is the mess of convection fooling me? Geesh I've been following the system since 8AM XD!!


It's very hard to find a center, but in my opinion it's still around 12N
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Quoting AllStar17:


Correct....do you ultimately think this WILL form?


If you look at the latest wind shear maps, you can see the upper-level anticyclone establishing itself over Invest 94L. So, to answer your question, it has already formed.
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We just got our first rain from "Jimena"... local people just started shopping, l8ter photos and video before, during and after Jimena.
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Quoting somemalayguy117:
(First post here hehe)
Krovanh seem to have an eye (or eye-like feature) after it reached it's peak.

And:
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 30/2100Z 16.6N 106.8W 120 KT
12HR VT 31/0600Z 17.3N 107.7W 125 KT
24HR VT 31/1800Z 18.7N 108.7W 125 KT
36HR VT 01/0600Z 20.6N 110.0W 125 KT
48HR VT 01/1800Z 22.6N 110.8W 115 KT
72HR VT 02/1800Z 26.5N 112.5W 75 KT...INLAND

96HR VT 03/1800Z 28.0N 114.0W 50 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 04/1800Z 28.5N 115.0W 25 KT

That can't be good...
Welcome, and is that Malay in your handle for a reason?
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22563
94L is gaining spiral banding and convection within these bands. This is a sign of a strengthening disturbance. These bands show a good circulation but as others have said still lacks a well defined center of circulation. I said last night that once the spiral bands organize it will help it deepen and strengthen into a tropical storm, but not until it develops centralized convection. Last night or this morning's burst was not organized, it was to the west of the circulation, but now the circulation has become better organized as evidenced by the spiral banding, outflow signifying a good anticyclone over top of the system and great outflow channels to the north and south of the system.
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2163. Grothar
Finished some writing. Only read a few blogs, but 94L does look a little ragged. Anyone have any further information on all that convection in the Gulf? Don't want to divert from 94L but the Gulf feature does look big, though no obvious circulation. Can't find those darn shear maps either feature
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Mobilegirl I would say that this storm is highly unlikely to have a track similar to any of those systems.
Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 667
Quoting BrockBerlin:
Lol canehunter... getting ready if you are in Florida unless you mean usual hurricane season plans, why would you get ready for an undeveloped system that is thousands of miles away and probably is not headed your direction in the first place.


I meant keeping an eye for it :o) sorry got carried over... I live in the MS Gulf Coast so I am not wishcasting just in case LOL Nyway you all should have at least the basic stuff for the season already..
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Its decreased but still at red, looking at the structure right and convection, I say we're in for a blow up overnight.
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2159. JLPR
Quoting Relix:


Hey I am not a RIP force member lol. I am just saying it's looking very bad at the moment... and I am sightly pissed because my forecast was for it to become a TD tonight and it's nowhere near that status =P. It could mount a comeback tomorrow, let's see how it makes use of DMAX.


its very close to TD
all it needs is a good D-max and we could have one tomorrow
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Lets try this again:

looking at Jimena, and the track & intensity, its not going to be nice for those on the peninsula. Can someone tell me what its like there? many people? development etc? I don't think they are used to hurricanes, as the historical tracks show none with this strength ever hitting in this area.

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.