Invest 94L and the Lesser Antilles

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 9:51 AM GMT on August 30, 2009

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Hi, this is Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Dr. Masters. The convection associated with Invest 94L has intensified, prompting the NHC to issue an early Tropical Weather Outlook to update the situation. Essentially, people in the Lesser Antilles need to start paying attention to the seas and skies. Looking at the computer track models, the set of model solutions are fairly similar to the Saturday model runs. A set of dynamical models (GFDL, HWRF, NOGAPS) runs to the NE of the Antilles, while the simpler models (LBAR, BAM family) are more easterly and take 94L over the Antilles. I do not ascribe any significance to the 00Z GFS track following the simpler models over the dynamical models. From my examination of the 00Z GFS run, it looks like the simulated 94L weakens too much, so the automatic vortex tracker picks up another vorticity feature. As for the future of 94L, there is a large area of large wind shear to it's north. It will need to keep it's track at WNW-W for intensification.

Update at 6AM EDT
I would be remiss if I didn't mention the major hurricane in the Eastern Pacific, Jimena At this time, Jimena has a satellite-estimated maximum wind speed of 115 mph, making it a Category 3 storm on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Jimena has an impressive presentation in satellite imagery with a large area of cold anvil cirrus in the center of the storm. The following microwave imagery indicate the formation of a relatively potent central eyewall, which is responsible for intensification.


Fig. 1 SSMI 85 GHz PCT at 0244Z Aug 30. Image courtesy of NRL.


People along the western coast of Mexico and along along the Baja need to pay close attention to this dangerous storm. I emphasize that using the current track and intensity forecast, Jimena will be a Category 4 storm when it approaches the tip of Baja and a Category 3 storm when it makes landfall up the coast.

It is worth noting that if Jimena follows the more easterly tracks presented in the computer track forecasts, the remnants of Jimena could impact NM and western Texas.


I'll update this entry further in response to 94L's development.


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2258. 7544
Quoting JRRP:

the structure looks like TS


agree and it just might be at dmax
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Quoting TampaSpin:
Dmx for 94L could bring us something we do not want to see tomorrow morning.
What is your take on 94L this evening Tampa?
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2256. Drakoen
The ambiguous quickscat reading is much more convincing showing a center further north. The regular quickscat with its SW bias obviously is incorrect.
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Quoting IKE:
NHC probably did the wise thing keeping it red for now.

Has anyone looked at the updated(2100UTC) shear map? Here's the link also..Link It looks boxed into a corner almost.



Still has the anticyclone that should keep it safe. Other systems in the same environments survive the same way.
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2254. JRRP
Quoting Weather456:

the structure looks like TS
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Quoting CycloneOz:


My secret is simple.

Get a great day-job that pays well...and work hard at it. Make friends with your boss(es) and be up-front about your "crazy hobby." Where Personal Protective Equipment when do get to go...and document your journeys well. Finally, once you've established yourself "as a professional" for this kind of endeavor...have your boss(es) agree to short-notice vacations.

I can pack up and leave when I need to. I'll be back at work on Friday....

BTW: I just checked YouTube...video still processing. Everyone should find it very interesting. Objectively...is it the best footage to come out of Bermuda regarding Hurricane Bill...we'll see!


I'm quite envious. Can't wait to see the footage, all I've seen from Bermuda regarding Bill is video of tourists staring at the ocean, lol.
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Quoting SavannahStorm:


Based on that image, I dub 94L "The Doughnut". A ring of tasty goodness with no center.


LOL! Right! If it can fill in that center, It'd likely become a tropical depression
Member Since: June 29, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 5238
Be curious to see if 94l is able to fire some convection over it's center tonight. Has a nice S shape.
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2250. IKE
NHC probably did the wise thing keeping it red for now.

Has anyone looked at the updated(2100UTC) shear map? Here's the link also..Link It looks boxed into a corner almost.

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
2249. Brillig
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
GOM blobiness..



What are we supposed to be seeing?
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Quoting AllStar17:
T Number should be interesting (about an hour- hour and a 1/2)


SAB will probably hold it a T1.5 based on a shear pattern.
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Dmx for 94L could bring us something we do not want to see tomorrow morning.
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2245. Relix
Quoting Weather456:
Shortwave infrared estimates 48.5W-12.5N

This seems feasible =P
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Quoting BrockBerlin:
cyclone what do you believe Jimena's intensity will be at landfall on the Baja (assuming it does)?


It's Cat IV at sea when it passes. I expect a strong Cat II or weak Cat III in CaboSL...(but all that's assuming it stays off as far as it's predicted to be.)
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Shortwave infrared estimates 48.5W-12.5N
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
T Number should be interesting (about an hour- hour and a 1/2)
Member Since: June 29, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 5238
Evening everyone....
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2240. Drakoen
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
QuikScat is known to have a southwest bias when locating centers. To find a "true" center you need to look at ambiguity, but it is very difficult to decipher. My attempt places a center closer to 13N 48W, but in no way rely on that.




Thanks for that information! You're coordinates match up with what I see on satellite imagery
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Quoting cyclonekid:


Based on that image, I dub 94L "The Doughnut". A ring of tasty goodness with no center.
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Fujiwhara Effect?
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.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Quoting cyclonekid:
Well defined eye


I don't believe I have ever seen a tropical cyclone affecting such an expanse of atmosphere before as Jimena is currently doing. Its outflow extends to the Central GOM for crying out loud. This is probably one of the most impressive tropical cyclones I have ever seen in my life time.
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2234. amd
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
QuikScat is known to have a southwest bias when locating centers. To find a "true" center you need to look at ambiguity, but it is very difficult to decipher. My attempt places a center closer to 13N 48W, but in no way rely on that.



that looks like a center is near 14N 49W. That makes a lot more sense than the LLC being at 11N 51W. But, then again, I freely admit that I do not read the quikscat output all that well.
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Well......I give up with this 94L it gives me headache :)
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Quoting BahaHurican:
Welcome, and is that Malay in your handle for a reason?
I'm a Malay in Malaysia. ;)
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Quoting cyclonekid:
Well defined eye


Jeez...that image scares the blank out of me!
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Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
QuikScat is known to have a southwest bias when locating centers. To find a "true" center you need to look at ambiguity, but it is very difficult to decipher. My attempt places a center closer to 13N 48W, but in no way rely on that.



Did not know that! :)

Your observation of the COC seems correct.
Member Since: June 29, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 5238
Quoting SavannahStorm:


Can't wait to see your vids, CycloneOz!

Just a question, though, if you don't mind telling us. How do you fund your excursions? I wish I could hop on a plane whenever and document landfalling hurricanes. That would be quite the life!


My secret is simple.

Get a great day-job that pays well...and work hard at it. Make friends with your boss(es) and be up-front about your "crazy hobby." Where Personal Protective Equipment when do get to go...and document your journeys well. Finally, once you've established yourself "as a professional" for this kind of endeavor...have your boss(es) agree to short-notice vacations.

I can pack up and leave when I need to. I'll be back at work on Friday....

BTW: I just checked YouTube...video still processing. Everyone should find it very interesting. Objectively...is it the best footage to come out of Bermuda regarding Hurricane Bill...we'll see!
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Well defined eye
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Quoting cchsweatherman:


In considering the rather conducive environmental conditions (protective upper level high, minimal dry air, good convergence, etc.) and the current well-defined low-level structure, I'm growing quite confident that we will see this become a tropical cyclone and believe this could eventually become a strong tropical storm or even hurricane within the next five days. Not quite certain though about intensity.


Thanks for your thoughts!
Member Since: June 29, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 5238
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
QuikScat is known to have a southwest bias when locating centers. To find a "true" center you need to look at ambiguity, but it is very difficult to decipher. My attempt places a center closer to 13N 48W, but in no way rely on that.



those coordinates would match what we are seeing on satilite
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I am very skeptical of the latest QuikScat data.....does not seem that is right at all.
Member Since: June 29, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 5238
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Quoting AllStar17:


I meant do you think 94L will become a cyclone and of what strength? Sorry for the confusion. The SHIPS is very agressive with the system.


In considering the rather conducive environmental conditions (protective upper level high, minimal dry air, good convergence, etc.) and the current well-defined low-level structure, I'm growing quite confident that we will see this become a tropical cyclone and believe this could eventually become a strong tropical storm or even hurricane within the next five days. Not quite certain though about intensity.
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The more time it takes for 94L to become better organized, the further west it will come. Should make for an interesting week ahead.
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2217. Relix
94L is a mess of vortices it seems. One will take control of the storm at one point, but the LOW is definitely ahead of the... err.. circulation?
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QuikScat is known to have a southwest bias when locating centers. To find a "true" center you need to look at ambiguity, but it is very difficult to decipher. My attempt places a center closer to 13N 48W, but in no way rely on that.

Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 13 Comments: 10453
Quoting amd:
if the center is near 11 N 51 W, then how are the winds to the south at buoy 41041 located at 14 N 46 W?

Just when you think that you have the answers, mother nature changes the questions.



the quikscat has to be wrong...
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Quoting Vortex95:
Drak stated that multiple vortecies are present maybe that is confusing you two?


no its not.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


trying to tell me 11N 51W??? no way jose.


Someone needs to recalibrate the QuickScat. There's no way it's matching what is evident on infrared.
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In closing for awhile, I wish all in Mexico the best possible outcome, remain vigilant, at least Texas gets some rain. We will have plenty of time I hope to deal with 94L.
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2210. amd
if the center is near 11 N 51 W, then how are the winds to the south at buoy 41041 located at 14 N 46 W?

Just when you think that you have the answers, mother nature changes the questions.
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2208. 19N81W
where is 94L going?
It kinda looks like the COC is starting to make that turn NW...we could handle the rain we are in the driest year in history to date...but a storm would but us away..
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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.