Invest 94L and the Lesser Antilles

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 9:51 AM GMT on August 30, 2009

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Hi, this is Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Dr. Masters. The convection associated with Invest 94L has intensified, prompting the NHC to issue an early Tropical Weather Outlook to update the situation. Essentially, people in the Lesser Antilles need to start paying attention to the seas and skies. Looking at the computer track models, the set of model solutions are fairly similar to the Saturday model runs. A set of dynamical models (GFDL, HWRF, NOGAPS) runs to the NE of the Antilles, while the simpler models (LBAR, BAM family) are more easterly and take 94L over the Antilles. I do not ascribe any significance to the 00Z GFS track following the simpler models over the dynamical models. From my examination of the 00Z GFS run, it looks like the simulated 94L weakens too much, so the automatic vortex tracker picks up another vorticity feature. As for the future of 94L, there is a large area of large wind shear to it's north. It will need to keep it's track at WNW-W for intensification.

Update at 6AM EDT
I would be remiss if I didn't mention the major hurricane in the Eastern Pacific, Jimena At this time, Jimena has a satellite-estimated maximum wind speed of 115 mph, making it a Category 3 storm on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Jimena has an impressive presentation in satellite imagery with a large area of cold anvil cirrus in the center of the storm. The following microwave imagery indicate the formation of a relatively potent central eyewall, which is responsible for intensification.


Fig. 1 SSMI 85 GHz PCT at 0244Z Aug 30. Image courtesy of NRL.


People along the western coast of Mexico and along along the Baja need to pay close attention to this dangerous storm. I emphasize that using the current track and intensity forecast, Jimena will be a Category 4 storm when it approaches the tip of Baja and a Category 3 storm when it makes landfall up the coast.

It is worth noting that if Jimena follows the more easterly tracks presented in the computer track forecasts, the remnants of Jimena could impact NM and western Texas.


I'll update this entry further in response to 94L's development.


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3208. JLPR
much better

its better than yesterday's d-max since yesterday's d-max convection looked a bit ragged but this one is looking round and deep

I say TD if it maintains its convection till 11am
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lol
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iceman55 :)
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Quoting iceman55:
?

that we had comment each other's blog lol
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no need to use the eumetsat now that GOES is back. the eumetsat is at too oblique an angle to get a good shot of 94L now.

If it keeps that convection over the center it might get tagged a depression @5am.
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3197. Seastep
Hey guys. Little insomnia here, so came on to see what is going on with 94L.

Not sure where NHC is getting 1010mb.

Buoy W of the wave is showing 1008 and falling.

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Quoting iceman55:
i cando that

good got that out of the way
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TS Kevin is turning north. I think it's in a Fujiwhara interaction with Jimena.
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A bit better organization shown coming out of the eclipse.

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Quoting iceman55:
in my blog

me too i have none in my blog.....hey i should comment urs and u comment mine
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Quoting iceman55:
i got 0

what u mean u got 0 lol
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Quoting 7544:
blackout will be over sonn lets see how 94l will do and see if we can get a td by 5am update

man u should see the Eumetsat
recently updated at 600 utc and you'll know it lol
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3182. JLPR
getting bigger
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3178. 7544
blackout will be over sonn lets see how 94l will do and see if we can get a td by 5am update
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Quoting iceman55:
watch to

my 2100 comment.....:)
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Quoting msphar:
I'm currently in Northern Nevada near Lake Tahoe. But my interests are many, and some of them lie in Tropical areas. Calif has been baking lately. I saw Arnie on the TV tonight complaining that the fire choppers couldn't see the fire due to the smoke and not enough wind to blow it out of the way. While we here a bit further North are having quite a bit of wind today.


Oh I see. So maybe the rain would be benefcial to So Cal. Most of my state, TX, has been bone dry and baking as well. This model shows the track of Jimena. If this pans out California will get its rain. Good night everyone. See ya tomorrow. :)

Link
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3172. JLPR
Quoting btwntx08:
Eumetsat image 545 utc still shows 94L convection growing and will


yep
I wonder how much it will expand
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Eumetsat image 545 utc still shows 94L convection growing and will
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3168. msphar
Calif doesn't suffer from weather like the East coast does. Here's a good overview:

www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/nepac/loop-vis.html

Weather comes from the NW and a high generally sits off the So Cal coast. Jimena will be a wisp of a breath if she makes it up that far, expect a few high clouds and not much moisture. More likely it will get sucked into the desert southwest and then move Eastward.
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3167. Acorna
000
ABNT20 KNHC 310534
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 700 MILES EAST OF THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS STILL APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT AROUND 15 MPH. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...GREATER THAN 50
PERCENT...OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IN THIS AREA DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. INTERESTS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG
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3163. JLPR
why is everyone going lol?

lol xD
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Quoting iceman55:
i see that :)

lol :)
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Quoting iceman55:
btwntx08 :) hey

hey guess what convection growing on 94L
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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