Invest 94L and the Lesser Antilles

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 9:51 AM GMT on August 30, 2009

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Hi, this is Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Dr. Masters. The convection associated with Invest 94L has intensified, prompting the NHC to issue an early Tropical Weather Outlook to update the situation. Essentially, people in the Lesser Antilles need to start paying attention to the seas and skies. Looking at the computer track models, the set of model solutions are fairly similar to the Saturday model runs. A set of dynamical models (GFDL, HWRF, NOGAPS) runs to the NE of the Antilles, while the simpler models (LBAR, BAM family) are more easterly and take 94L over the Antilles. I do not ascribe any significance to the 00Z GFS track following the simpler models over the dynamical models. From my examination of the 00Z GFS run, it looks like the simulated 94L weakens too much, so the automatic vortex tracker picks up another vorticity feature. As for the future of 94L, there is a large area of large wind shear to it's north. It will need to keep it's track at WNW-W for intensification.

Update at 6AM EDT
I would be remiss if I didn't mention the major hurricane in the Eastern Pacific, Jimena At this time, Jimena has a satellite-estimated maximum wind speed of 115 mph, making it a Category 3 storm on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Jimena has an impressive presentation in satellite imagery with a large area of cold anvil cirrus in the center of the storm. The following microwave imagery indicate the formation of a relatively potent central eyewall, which is responsible for intensification.


Fig. 1 SSMI 85 GHz PCT at 0244Z Aug 30. Image courtesy of NRL.


People along the western coast of Mexico and along along the Baja need to pay close attention to this dangerous storm. I emphasize that using the current track and intensity forecast, Jimena will be a Category 4 storm when it approaches the tip of Baja and a Category 3 storm when it makes landfall up the coast.

It is worth noting that if Jimena follows the more easterly tracks presented in the computer track forecasts, the remnants of Jimena could impact NM and western Texas.


I'll update this entry further in response to 94L's development.


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Notice that not even the experts agree on loacation

lol lol

25kts-1007mb-121N-475W
30/2345 UTC 12.4N 48.4W T1.0/1.5 94L -- Atlantic
AL 94 2009083100 BEST 0 126N 483W 25 1007 DB
WITH AN ASSOCIATED 1007 MB SURFACE LOW CENTER NEAR 11N48W.

The most accurate center appears to be:

94L is located somewhere in the Atlantic
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Evening all

What happened to the blogs? Only seeing 4 posts instead of 50...odd

Never mind, my mistake...
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For those of you with patience, how do I post an image, all I get is url address.
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00Z 94L

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 12.6N LONCUR = 48.3W DIRCUR = 290DEG SPDCUR = 10KT
LATM12 = 11.8N LONM12 = 46.3W DIRM12 = 293DEG SPDM12 = 12KT
LATM24 = 10.8N LONM24 = 43.5W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
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Shuttle Discovery now docking with ISS
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On the IR, too. oops.

Ehh, I'll try that again in a moment.
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:


Nope...its just a glitch.



Not a glitch. It's another effect from GW...
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two pine hole eye would be so cool
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115239
.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Someone was askin about fujiwhara in the EastPac...well...it sure would be going if that were accurate.
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Man Jimena is so huge it looks like it is trying to spawn off a storm in the GOM from its huge tail end!
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Quoting atmoaggie:
No way. Nooooo way.




lol lol two is always better than 1 I always say.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
AL 94 2009083100 BEST 0 126N 483W 25 1007 DB
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There is NOT two eyes.


Look at SSD.... its just a glitch.
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now why would i give False information.???


and yes there is 30 to 40kt wish is all most on top of 94L WISH there IS a Anti Cyclone on top of him helping too keep the wind shear low this dont no how long that Anti Cyclone will last
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115239
2343. Seastep
Quoting atmoaggie:
No way. Nooooo way.



What the...
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2342. Relix
We can bicker all we want, but 94L will form at the point it wants to form. I trust the NHC and their coordinates. Let's see what happens tomororw =P!
Member Since: August 3, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2725
Aren't the Dvorak classifications going down because convection has decreased? Expect them to rise again once the convection flares up again.
Member Since: June 29, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 5313
Quoting atmoaggie:
No way. Nooooo way.

Seriously, is that a REAL satellite picture, if so I have never seen anything like it!!!
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Quoting atmoaggie:
No way. Nooooo way.



Thats sick!!!
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2338. SLU
Quoting atmoaggie:
No way. Nooooo way.



lol

a preview of what we may see come 2012?
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2337. IKE
30/1745 UTC 11.9N 47.5W T1.5/1.5 94L -- Atlantic
30/2345 UTC 12.4N 48.4W T1.0/1.5 94L -- Atlantic


.5N and .9W
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2336. JRRP
Quoting atmoaggie:
No way. Nooooo way.


O o
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Quoting atmoaggie:

No kidding?
Someone must have made a McIDAS coding error.


Exactly.
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Quoting StormFreakyisher:

Omg is that real!?


Nope...its just a glitch.

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Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


those coordinates would match what we are seeing on satilite


Agreed.
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Quoting adjusterx:


What is the average house, town, building structure out there. Can the place handle a strong storm? Just wandering never been there and the only photos I have seen were from tourist either golfing or at Hagars bar drinking.


The average material for construction is block, cement, iron, strong roof and walls, but is a high index of poor people down here (people from other states ad cities) they made they're home by carton, paper, palms... furthermore these people live in arrollos/streams so I can imagine the problem U_U
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:


Its a loop glitch.

one eye.


No kidding?
Someone must have made a McIDAS coding error.
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Quoting atmoaggie:
No way. Nooooo way.


Omg is that real!?
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:


Apparently im going to have to repost this many more times.

"That shear is due to the upper level anticyclone protecting Invest 94L and its interaction with an upper level low well to the north. Invest 94L will never encounter this shear as the upper-level anticyclone will be moving in tandem with the system."


+1 You are right.
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Quoting atmoaggie:
No way. Nooooo way.



Its a loop glitch.

one eye.

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2323. IKE
Quoting THUNDERPR:
30/2345 UTC 12.4N 48.4W T1.0/1.5 94L -- Atlantic


oops........
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Quoting sammywammybamy:



Taz Stop Before i Report You..

I Just got on...

And i am Super Confused




lol Report me for what
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115239
Looks like 94L is accelerating slightly
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Also, for the ppl interested in the BoC blowup....

GULF OF MEXICO...
A COLD FRONT CLIPS THE NW GULF EXTENDING FROM A 1013 MB LOW OVER
SRN MISSISSIPPI NEAR 31N89W CONTINUING ALONG 30N93W 28N98W. A
PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALONG
28N92W 25N95W CONTINUING S INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TO NEAR
19N95W. SURFACE CONVERGENCE NEAR THE FRONT AND PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
WRN GULF WITHIN 300 NM NW OF A LINE ALONG 20N94W 26N89W 31N84.
THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY IS ENHANCED BY UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND ERN CONUS
AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE WRN GULF CENTERED OVER
MEXICO NEAR 19N100W.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22322
weather channel says TD within the next 24 hrs. (Don't kill the messenger; I know a lot of folks on here do not care for TWC)
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2317. IKE
Quoting sammywammybamy:



Taz Stop Before i Report You..

I Just got on...

And i am Super Confused


Report him?
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No way. Nooooo way.

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Multi platform
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Seems to me that the centre is around 13.4N 48W?

Looks like circulation is starting to develop around there, should be a storm tomorrow?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-wv.html
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2313. Drakoen
Quoting BahaHurican:
Hmmmm..... NHC seems to like the Quikscat imagery just fine.....


NHC observations based on 18z. Not current.
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Quoting cchsweatherman:


I don't believe I have ever seen a tropical cyclone affecting such an expanse of atmosphere before as Jimena is currently doing. Its outflow extends to the Central GOM for crying out loud. This is probably one of the most impressive tropical cyclones I have ever seen in my life time.


Hurricane Wilma was a much more impressive hurricane then looking at the one and only Jimena.
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Hmmmm..... NHC seems to like the Quikscat imagery just fine.....
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22322
2310. will40
Quoting StormFreakyisher:
Someone please tell me why this is a code red when there is 30-40knt shear to its NW?Please!


Because the shear is moving along ahead of it
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2309. Relix
Quoting StormFreakyisher:
Someone please tell me why this is a code red when there is 30-40knt shear to its NW?Please!


The Anti Cyclone 94L has over it is causing that. It won't harm it. It's been posted like 10 times already =P
Member Since: August 3, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2725
30/2345 UTC 12.4N 48.4W T1.0/1.5 94L -- Atlantic
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.