Invest 94L and the Lesser Antilles

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 9:51 AM GMT on August 30, 2009

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Hi, this is Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Dr. Masters. The convection associated with Invest 94L has intensified, prompting the NHC to issue an early Tropical Weather Outlook to update the situation. Essentially, people in the Lesser Antilles need to start paying attention to the seas and skies. Looking at the computer track models, the set of model solutions are fairly similar to the Saturday model runs. A set of dynamical models (GFDL, HWRF, NOGAPS) runs to the NE of the Antilles, while the simpler models (LBAR, BAM family) are more easterly and take 94L over the Antilles. I do not ascribe any significance to the 00Z GFS track following the simpler models over the dynamical models. From my examination of the 00Z GFS run, it looks like the simulated 94L weakens too much, so the automatic vortex tracker picks up another vorticity feature. As for the future of 94L, there is a large area of large wind shear to it's north. It will need to keep it's track at WNW-W for intensification.

Update at 6AM EDT
I would be remiss if I didn't mention the major hurricane in the Eastern Pacific, Jimena At this time, Jimena has a satellite-estimated maximum wind speed of 115 mph, making it a Category 3 storm on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Jimena has an impressive presentation in satellite imagery with a large area of cold anvil cirrus in the center of the storm. The following microwave imagery indicate the formation of a relatively potent central eyewall, which is responsible for intensification.


Fig. 1 SSMI 85 GHz PCT at 0244Z Aug 30. Image courtesy of NRL.


People along the western coast of Mexico and along along the Baja need to pay close attention to this dangerous storm. I emphasize that using the current track and intensity forecast, Jimena will be a Category 4 storm when it approaches the tip of Baja and a Category 3 storm when it makes landfall up the coast.

It is worth noting that if Jimena follows the more easterly tracks presented in the computer track forecasts, the remnants of Jimena could impact NM and western Texas.


I'll update this entry further in response to 94L's development.


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Quoting TampaSpin:


Can't you read, i said further south......always......LOL

Must have skimmed over that part, sorry.
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Quoting canesrule1:
Love watching this:



The money you could be saving...Lol!
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Quoting canesrule1:
It is Jimena and the loop was off, there is just 1 eye.


oh ok, figured that, looks pretty cool tho

thanks
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8357
Wow the models take it north than kind of go south to west toward the southeast CONUS.I am actually surprised that convection is still holding out inStead of going poof, so it will be a lot better when DMAX comes.Can't wait.
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Quoting atmoaggie:

You think it really could bust through what will be left of our front? I don't think so.
Andrew's track isn't far enough south to miss it's effects entirely.


Can't you read, i said further south......always......LOL
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20443
Quoting tornadodude:
canesrule1-

what was that loop you just posted?
It is Jimena and the loop was off, there is just 1 eye.
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2501. Patrap

ATCF images (Hurricane Track Models)

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128632
Quoting tornadodude:
canesrule1-

what was that loop you just posted?

That came from CIMMS. They are having an apparent navigation issue in McIDAS.
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18Z UKMET
Member Since: July 19, 2008 Posts: 43 Comments: 4051
2498. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Subject: Category Two Typhoon In Sea East Of Japan

At 0:00 AM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Krovanh (975 hPa) located at 33.5N 139.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 60 knots with gusts of 85 knots. The storm is reported as moving north at 8 knots.

RSMC Dvorak Intensity: T3.5

Storm-Force Winds
================
50 NM from the center in northern quadrant
30 NM from the center in southern quadrant

Gale-Force Winds
================
200 NM from the center in northeastern quadrant
100 NM from the center in southwestern quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
======================
24 HRS: 39.3N 143.2E - 55 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm)
48 HRS: 43.0N 150.1E - EXTRATROPICAL
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canesrule1-

what was that loop you just posted?
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8357
2496. GatorWX
Even if 94 does pull to the nw by the small trough, it would still have to be watched closely by eastcoasters from FL to ME, oh and Canadia too. Seems to me it may encounter some shear the more northwest it goes. I haven't had any time to really divulge into the shear models and other useful products because I've worked almost constantly all weekend. Also there is much more dry, stable air to its north. Nonetheless, it needs to be watched. I'm not anticipating too much strengthening however from this system unless it starts organizing quickly. I know I'm repeating myself, but I seriously would pay much more attention to the wave over Africa, especially if I were in the eastern islands, ie the Antilles, unless of course we start seeing some drastic changes to 94 and/or it keeps going west and ends up in the western caribbean away south of PR and the DR.
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2495. Relix
It's looking much better organized now. Looks very cool in fact. Now.

It will not hit the islands! Repeat with me! Will not!**

**I hope, pray, desire, wish =P
Member Since: August 3, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2725
2493. JLPR
Quoting Patrap:
Even the WV Loop in Motion shows a better scene from earlier




looks like it is getting ready for D-max xD
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Quoting Patrap:
00 Z Dynamical Model Suite


Not surprised buy still ou oy sync
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Quoting atmoaggie:
Remember Bill. Had a lot of SST, but little TCHP.


Dear God, if something passes over the tip of Cuba, whoa.
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Quoting StormW:


Thanks!

Didn't quite understand the last part.


inspiration
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Quoting TampaSpin:
This could be the track....Just letting everyone think of the possiblity.......As that is currently the setup in my opinion with this similar track but, just a bit further south before it hangs a left.


You think it really could bust through what will be left of our front? I don't think so.
Andrew's track isn't far enough south to miss it's effects entirely.
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2488. 19N81W
stormW

So you think its coming into the Caribbean?
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2487. Patrap
Even the WV Loop in Motion shows a better scene from earlier


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Quoting StormW:
2476. canesrule1 9:01 PM EDT on August 30, 2009
Love watching this


Looks like a pig's snout.
lol, i agee
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Quoting TampaSpin:
This could be the track....Just letting everyone think of the possiblity.......As that is currently the setup in my opinion with this similar track but, just a bit further south before it hangs a left.



Hmmmm, that is a little close to home....
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Quoting canesrule1:
Love watching this:



That is just HUGE!!! I hope those in the line of fire are paying attention and getting the heck out of dodge.......
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Quoting JRRP:
use the LBAR
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This could be the track....Just letting everyone think of the possiblity.......As that is currently the setup in my opinion with this similar track but, just a bit further south before it hangs a left.

Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20443
2478. Patrap
Quoting cchsweatherman:


Starting to become more symmetrical and better organized once again.


Yes She is cchs..the elongation from the earlier momentum has dampened out and the overall Structure has Improved greatly in Symmetry.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128632
Love watching this:

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2475. JRRP
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Quoting Patrap:
94L 00:15 UTC IR Still



Starting to become more symmetrical and better organized once again.
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2472. JLPR
Quoting canesrule1:
the only 00z statistical/simple model that initialized 94L correctly is the LBAR model.


and it does nothing good with it =\
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HD video footage of Hurricane Bill's nearest pass to Bermuda.

The Xtremehurricanes.com team is now in route to Cabo San Lucas and if all goes well they hope to provide live web cam coverage of Jimena.
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2470. Patrap
94L 00:15 UTC IR Still

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128632
reminds me of a rhyme I sing to the kids: up, down, all around..
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2468. JLPR
Quoting Patrap:
2km Storm Relative IR Imagery with BD Enhancement Curve

Time of Latest Image: 200908302315





I agree with that xD
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Quoting StormW:


I did! Thanks!!


hope you live to see many many more, especially many many more hurricane seasons with us. Still havnt forgot you is the reason why I've reached so far.
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Remember Bill. Had a lot of SST, but little TCHP.

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2465. JamesSA
Quoting cchsweatherman:


That is just creepy to watch; a storm with two eyes.

The whole thing is a double image if you look closely. Kind of like a 3D movie without the glasses.
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the only 00z statistical/simple model that initialized 94L correctly is the LBAR model.
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2463. Patrap
2km Storm Relative IR Imagery with BD Enhancement Curve

Time of Latest Image: 200908302315



Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128632
2462. A4Guy
help please - is anyone having difficulty with the sat loops not updating...esp the floaters? i can't get them beyond 2100 utc. have tried re-booting, clearing cache, etc.
thanks.
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On that note, I need to go look for something to eat. I may or may not be back later tonight; got another early start tomorrow :( and want to look in on 94L before I head out.

L8r!
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Quoting atmoaggie:
Believe it or not, the interpolated HWRF is not the most intense forecast. And few of them see the end of 94's potential.



That is just creepy to watch; a storm with two eyes.
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2458. Patrap
00 Z Statistical Models


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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.