Invest 94L and the Lesser Antilles

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 9:51 AM GMT on August 30, 2009

Share this Blog
1
+

Hi, this is Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Dr. Masters. The convection associated with Invest 94L has intensified, prompting the NHC to issue an early Tropical Weather Outlook to update the situation. Essentially, people in the Lesser Antilles need to start paying attention to the seas and skies. Looking at the computer track models, the set of model solutions are fairly similar to the Saturday model runs. A set of dynamical models (GFDL, HWRF, NOGAPS) runs to the NE of the Antilles, while the simpler models (LBAR, BAM family) are more easterly and take 94L over the Antilles. I do not ascribe any significance to the 00Z GFS track following the simpler models over the dynamical models. From my examination of the 00Z GFS run, it looks like the simulated 94L weakens too much, so the automatic vortex tracker picks up another vorticity feature. As for the future of 94L, there is a large area of large wind shear to it's north. It will need to keep it's track at WNW-W for intensification.

Update at 6AM EDT
I would be remiss if I didn't mention the major hurricane in the Eastern Pacific, Jimena At this time, Jimena has a satellite-estimated maximum wind speed of 115 mph, making it a Category 3 storm on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Jimena has an impressive presentation in satellite imagery with a large area of cold anvil cirrus in the center of the storm. The following microwave imagery indicate the formation of a relatively potent central eyewall, which is responsible for intensification.


Fig. 1 SSMI 85 GHz PCT at 0244Z Aug 30. Image courtesy of NRL.


People along the western coast of Mexico and along along the Baja need to pay close attention to this dangerous storm. I emphasize that using the current track and intensity forecast, Jimena will be a Category 4 storm when it approaches the tip of Baja and a Category 3 storm when it makes landfall up the coast.

It is worth noting that if Jimena follows the more easterly tracks presented in the computer track forecasts, the remnants of Jimena could impact NM and western Texas.


I'll update this entry further in response to 94L's development.


Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 2558 - 2508

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63 | 64 | 65 | 66Blog Index

2544. stormpetrol
4 hours old of course.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Good Evening Everyone!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
StormW..if you still have them, I think it's time to put back up on your blog the abbreviation list!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I think GFS is seeing mid-level dry air into 94L. The theta-E at 850 mb and 500 mb showing large differences very near 94L and, of course, in all possible track directions.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Rapid intensification of Jimena



could be a devesating blow to Cabo San Lucas

Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Quoting foggymyst:
Tampa, thinking still the same?


Working on an update now...but, yes...it appears so....
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20439
Tampa, thinking still the same?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 7544:
if this thing fills in at damx like it has been doing at that time its going to look like big red scary ball aiming at the islands this one will be worth staying up for imo get the coffee and pepsi ready


Right.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
i noted that ships take JIMENA too 133kt
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

12.1N/50W according to this quikscat.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Also, could anyone recommend a good, free site online to learn about weather?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting canesrule1:
94L's T number has been lowered.

30/2345 UTC 12.4N 48.4W T1.0/1.5 94L



Because convection has waned.....expect it to rise when the convection reforms.

Good night. See you all tomorrow early in the morning.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2541. 7544
if this thing fills in at damx like it has been doing at that time its going to look like big red scary ball aiming at the islands this one will be worth staying up for imo get the coffee and pepsi ready
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 19N81W:
stormW

So you think its coming into the Caribbean?


Well the first outer bands are already begining to sweep and scatter rain over Barbados and the northern Windward Islands
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I'm out
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Thanks...and I am not going to ask what CONUS stands for :)
lol, The continental united states is what it stands for.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting StormW:


No problem...it's always my pleasure to help any way I can. If I can help someone learn something, or inspire them to perform a vast amount of research, especally if they are interested in tropical forecasting, or for that matter, wx in general, then all of my research and studying have paid off...even though there may not be a monetary value.


Thanks StormW for the knowledge you help disseminate to all of us weather novices, I personally have learned quite a few things from you, good tips on how to find, use and understand Wx info and charts etc...
--a late Happy Birthday to you too!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
94L's T number has been lowered.

30/2345 UTC 12.4N 48.4W T1.0/1.5 94L

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting canesrule1:
With the several models building the High to the west, right now the highest possibility of landfall with 94L is the CONUS, but it is too far to tell.


Thanks...and I am not going to ask what CONUS stands for :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
CMC has been well-skilled so far this season...I want to see the 0Z CMC.

My personal favorite, though, is the 18 Z GFS...what 94L? Does nothing.

Both here: http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I'm a newbie to understanding weather, and am wondering if someone could tell me why there appears to be a clockwise rotation in this loop of 94L?

It would seem it should be rotating the other way, right?

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200994_sat.html#a_topad
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2532. 789
Quoting StormW:


It might be close...but I think it will be more like the model images Patrap posted a few back.
think they may name this 94l soon to post warnings
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Looking at all the track adjustments the models are putting out, I can't see any reason for this storm not to run into the Gulf, it seems far enough south to miss the trough. Maybe some one could add a few more pieces to the puzzle of why it won't.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Grothar:


In case any of you are bored with 94L just look at this and what is behind it. Season is not over yet, folks.

Oh yea , I agree, we are in an extremely active multidecadal cycle of hurricane activity so this is not all too surprising, but it is a pretty good wave so may need to watch.
Member Since: August 31, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 833
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


per usual canesrule...is 94 going to develop and hit Florida? How do you see it now?
With the several models building the High to the west, right now the highest possibility of landfall with 94L is the CONUS, but it is too far to tell.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
000
WHXX01 KMIA 310031
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0031 UTC MON AUG 31 2009

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE JIMENA (EP132009) 20090831 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
090831 0000 090831 1200 090901 0000 090901 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 16.7N 107.0W 17.5N 108.2W 18.5N 109.5W 19.7N 110.6W
BAMD 16.7N 107.0W 17.6N 108.1W 18.9N 109.3W 20.4N 110.4W
BAMM 16.7N 107.0W 17.6N 108.2W 18.8N 109.4W 20.3N 110.5W
LBAR 16.7N 107.0W 17.7N 108.2W 19.1N 109.9W 20.9N 111.8W
SHIP 125KTS 132KTS 133KTS 126KTS
DSHP 125KTS 132KTS 133KTS 126KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
090902 0000 090903 0000 090904 0000 090905 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 21.2N 111.7W 23.4N 113.5W 23.9N 115.3W 23.4N 117.2W
BAMD 22.1N 111.3W 24.9N 112.2W 25.3N 112.2W 24.8N 111.4W
BAMM 21.9N 111.6W 24.4N 113.2W 24.7N 114.3W 24.2N 115.7W
LBAR 23.0N 114.0W 27.6N 117.2W 30.7N 116.6W 30.7N 112.0W
SHIP 118KTS 91KTS 60KTS 31KTS
DSHP 118KTS 52KTS 31KTS 0KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 16.7N LONCUR = 107.0W DIRCUR = 305DEG SPDCUR = 6KT
LATM12 = 16.0N LONM12 = 106.0W DIRM12 = 295DEG SPDM12 = 6KT
LATM24 = 15.4N LONM24 = 104.7W
WNDCUR = 125KT RMAXWD = 5NM WNDM12 = 115KT
CENPRS = 940MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD = 340NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 60NM RD34SE = 60NM RD34SW = 50NM RD34NW = 60NM
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
A suggestion for all of those asking where and when it will be here or there or can it go here or there. Look at the models. Trust the first 24 hours worth. Beyond that, even the experts accuracy deminishes exponentially. Trust the first 24 hours. Tommorow, check back and trust the next 24 hours. REpeat process daily until your local is well out of the 24 hour forecast then your safe.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Grothar:


In case any of you are bored with 94L just look at this and what is behind it. Season is not over yet, folks.

Yep, peak of hurricane season is comming up in about 10 days.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Weather456...isn't that kinda old? NHC has it 850 miles away from the Antilles.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
PERCENTAGES TIME!!!!

Percentages are based on the latest 00z models and are subject to change.

1. Out-to-sea: 38%

2. Eastern U.S coast: 55%

3. Caribbean: 5%
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2522. Hhunter
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2521. Mikla
94L w/ models and 60% opacity WV...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TampaSpin:


Atm....PLEASE read i said further south.....LOL....i'm so glad we disagree as usuall i was getting worried......LOL

I got it. I got it. Unruffle.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting canesrule1:
with the high building back and the trough curving it were will 94L go? southeast? lol


per usual canesrule...is 94 going to develop and hit Florida? How do you see it now?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
accuweather

large, developing tropical wave in the central Atlantic is about 1000 miles east of the Lesser Antilles and it is tracking to the west at about 15 knots. An area of low pressure within the wave is located near 48 west and 12 north. Several bands of thunderstorms continue to rotate around it. The wave continues to grow and is looking more like a tropical depression. An upper trough of low pressure centered near 50 west and 30 north extends southwest into the eastern Caribbean and it is exerting a southwesterly shear across the wave. The upper level trough is also shifting west in tandem with the wave so strengthening should still occur over the next couple of days, and the wave could become a depression or even a tropical storm. Some computer models ramp this feature up into a hurricane by mid to late week so it will have to be watched. Most of the computer guidance tracks this feature toward or just to the northeast of the Leeward Islands by the middle of the upcoming week. By the end of the week, the system could be approaching the Bahamas.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
2517. Grothar


In case any of you are bored with 94L just look at this and what is behind it. Season is not over yet, folks.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2516. Hhunter
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
94L demonstrates good structure at this hour. DMAX will be interesting
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting atmoaggie:

You think it really could bust through what will be left of our front? I don't think so.
Andrew's track isn't far enough south to miss it's effects entirely.


Atm....PLEASE read i said further south.....LOL....i'm so glad we disagree as usuall i was getting worried......LOL
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20439
2513. A4Guy
REPOST
**help please - is anyone having difficulty with the sat loops not updating...esp the floaters? i can't get them beyond 2100 utc. have tried re-booting, clearing cache, etc.
thanks.**
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 7544:


that shows the high buliding back in correct
with the high building back and the trough curving it were will 94L go? southeast? lol
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting StormW:


No problem...it's always my pleasure to help any way I can. If I can help someone learn something, or inspire them to perform a vast amount of research, especally if they are interested in tropical forecasting, or for that matter, wx in general, then all of my research and studying have paid off...even though there may not be a monetary value.


that is such a great attitude to have, much appreciated!
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8200
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2509. 7544
Quoting futuremet:
18Z UKMET


that shows the high buliding back in correct
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 2558 - 2508

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63 | 64 | 65 | 66Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.