Invest 94L and the Lesser Antilles

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 9:51 AM GMT on August 30, 2009

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Hi, this is Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Dr. Masters. The convection associated with Invest 94L has intensified, prompting the NHC to issue an early Tropical Weather Outlook to update the situation. Essentially, people in the Lesser Antilles need to start paying attention to the seas and skies. Looking at the computer track models, the set of model solutions are fairly similar to the Saturday model runs. A set of dynamical models (GFDL, HWRF, NOGAPS) runs to the NE of the Antilles, while the simpler models (LBAR, BAM family) are more easterly and take 94L over the Antilles. I do not ascribe any significance to the 00Z GFS track following the simpler models over the dynamical models. From my examination of the 00Z GFS run, it looks like the simulated 94L weakens too much, so the automatic vortex tracker picks up another vorticity feature. As for the future of 94L, there is a large area of large wind shear to it's north. It will need to keep it's track at WNW-W for intensification.

Update at 6AM EDT
I would be remiss if I didn't mention the major hurricane in the Eastern Pacific, Jimena At this time, Jimena has a satellite-estimated maximum wind speed of 115 mph, making it a Category 3 storm on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Jimena has an impressive presentation in satellite imagery with a large area of cold anvil cirrus in the center of the storm. The following microwave imagery indicate the formation of a relatively potent central eyewall, which is responsible for intensification.


Fig. 1 SSMI 85 GHz PCT at 0244Z Aug 30. Image courtesy of NRL.


People along the western coast of Mexico and along along the Baja need to pay close attention to this dangerous storm. I emphasize that using the current track and intensity forecast, Jimena will be a Category 4 storm when it approaches the tip of Baja and a Category 3 storm when it makes landfall up the coast.

It is worth noting that if Jimena follows the more easterly tracks presented in the computer track forecasts, the remnants of Jimena could impact NM and western Texas.


I'll update this entry further in response to 94L's development.


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Quoting atmoaggie:

What? No chance it does nothing at all?
GFS refuses to be impressed by 94L's environment.
Well, if the NHC has a red circle around it, why would i choose to put a possibility that this will die, remember we are in DMIN and that is why the convection has died down, at 8 AM tomorrow morning you will change your mind.
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Quoting will40:
Guys the two eyed thingy was a codeing error on the sat


Thanks will...Knew something was not correct there. I could not duplicate the dual eye using other imagery sites.
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2606. JLPR


looking more round
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 5223
Quoting stormsurge39:
What is keeping 94L out of the GOM????


yeah, I wonder that too. It very well could down the road....
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Quoting GatorWX:


Agreed, never seen one before with eyes that are that pronounced and strong. Very unique!


I don't think it ever really had two eyes. Just part of an EWC and the illusion the rainbow loop created. Any other thoughts on this?
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Is it too soon to talk about 94L possibly going in the GOM? If you dont think it is please tell why.
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Quoting FLGatorCaneNut:


This is based on your opinion, the opinion of others, or reliable data
it is based on facts and reliable data and models.
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2600. will40
Guys the two eyed thingy was a codeing error on the sat
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Quoting stormpetrol:

I saw that too but the one at 12/50 looks more defined to me, you could be right though and this WNW movement, sorry I just don't see it wishful thinking for some maybe, jmo
true.
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2598. Relix
Quoting hydrus:
456-I thought I was seeing things,but can you explain how hurricane Jimena formed two eyes and so close together.Did both eye walls have the same wind speed?


It did NOT form two eyes. It was a loop error.
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I think FL should watch 94L, I don't like the current tracks.
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Quoting canesrule1:
NEW PERCENTAGES UPDATE!!!!


U.S Eastern Coast: 79%

Out-to-sea: 20%

Caribbean: 1%



This is based on your opinion, the opinion of others, or reliable data
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With two eyes like that kind of reminds me of dueling Banjos definitely CREEPY. Oh hell no I didn't say that.
Member Since: August 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3113
2594. Patrap
Hurricane Gustav & Hanna Aug 31 2008






Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128279
Quoting canesrule1:
NEW PERCENTAGES UPDATE!!!!

What? No chance it does nothing at all?
GFS refuses to be impressed by 94L's environment.
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Quoting BDADUDE:

lol. your kidding
NO! lol, Models are suggesting that the Bermuda high to the north of 94L will strengthen to the west thus blocking 94L from curving out to sea, also some reliable models are dropping the trough because the trough will no be there to shield us in the US from 94L. All this info can change in a mater of 24 hours, but for now this is what is going on.
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2591. jipmg
I find it interesting KEVIN is gaining strength as it moves north into sub 80 degree water..
Quoting canesrule1:
I see it at 51W and 11N

I saw that too but the one at 12/50 looks more defined to me, you could be right though and this WNW movement, sorry I just don't see it wishful thinking for some maybe, jmo
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So where is this satellite imagery that people are seeing two eyes from Jimena? I haven't seen that yet.
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2588. hydrus
Quoting Weather456:
I have to fit my September Outlook, Jimena and 94L in 1 blog 2mr. Forgive me if its bit long.
456-I thought I was seeing things,but can you explain how hurricane Jimena formed two eyes and so close together.Did both eye walls have the same wind speed?
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2586. GatorWX
Quoting cchsweatherman:


That is just creepy to watch; a storm with two eyes.


Agreed, never seen one before with eyes that are that pronounced and strong. Very unique!
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Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
2584. BDADUDE
Quoting canesrule1:
NEW PERCENTAGES UPDATE!!!!


U.S Eastern Coast: 79%

Out-to-sea: 20%

Caribbean: 1%


lol. your kidding
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Quoting canesrule1:
NEW PERCENTAGES UPDATE!!!!


U.S Eastern Coast: 79%

Out-to-sea: 20%

Caribbean: 1%

What is keeping 94L out of the GOM????
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NEW PERCENTAGES UPDATE!!!!


U.S Eastern Coast: 79%

Out-to-sea: 20%

Caribbean: 1%

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I see most of the experts are in the house, we can count on the wu when the going gets tough.
Member Since: August 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3113
2580. Patrap
2 Sept 2008


2 Sept 2008 363 days ago.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128279
Quoting vince1966:
Looking at all the track adjustments the models are putting out, I can't see any reason for this storm not to run into the Gulf, it seems far enough south to miss the trough. Maybe some one could add a few more pieces to the puzzle of why it won't.
Why wouldnt go in the GOM?
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I have to fit my September Outlook, Jimena and 94L in 1 blog 2mr. Forgive me if its bit long.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Excellent Storm...a lot of bloggers ask about the abbreviations we use on here. That will be a great help.
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Quoting StormFreakyisher:

Yep, peak of hurricane season is comming up in about 10 days.
Remember that's just the statistical peak over time since modern record keeping began (the last one hundred years). Each season is different.

Wilma was in late October. Can't let your guard down until the season's over.
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2572. 789
Quoting StormW:


THE WEATHER PREDICTION
how about the wonderful job by DR. ROB CARVER
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Quoting GaleWeathers:
Also, could anyone recommend a good, free site online to learn about weather?


Quick Links
- Look under the Learning Links on the lower right. Several very good sites there.
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Statistical cyclogenesis probability for the next 24 hours after 18 Z:

Seems I am a little slow...again.
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2568. Relix
Quoting cchsweatherman:
In watching Hurricane Jimena, its just creepy to watch TWO eyes staring back at you from the satellite imagery. I'm just wondering. How does a hurricane form two eyes? I have never come across that before in my studies and in my experience.


It was a loop error though.
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2567. jipmg
Quoting cchsweatherman:
In watching Hurricane Jimena, its just creepy to watch TWO eyes staring back at you from the satellite imagery. I'm just wondering. How does a hurricane form two eyes? I have never come across that before in my studies and in my experience.


it means it has a smaller eye inside a bigger eye ! It has happened before, I think Wilma would be an example? Or recently Bill?
2551.

Yep 456. And Brian Osburn (aka CycloneOz) will be there capturing video. With any luck he may be able to provide live streaming video on Xtremehurricanes.com as well. He is putting himself in danger, but that is what journalists do. Good luck and safe travels to him. Should be some amazing video footage.
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Quoting WeatherStudent:



Absolutely! If this forecast actually pans out, I'll be the first one praising you, TS. While everyone else eats crow.
dont wishcast, but i do have to say Florida has a rather large chance of receiving 94L, imo. Due to the reason that the Bermuda high builds to the west and there the latest models are not forecasting a trough to curve 94L.
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Quoting GaleWeathers:
Also, could anyone recommend a good, free site online to learn about weather?

http://www.theweatherprediction.com/ is an excellent place for study in partly-layman terms.
http://www.meted.ucar.edu/ is THE place for visual/flash/etc. learning, but with full terminology and written by PhD students and profs. Navy, Air Force, NOAA, (and more) and a lot of private mets have to go through that and turn in their quiz scores at the intern level of employment.
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In watching Hurricane Jimena, its just creepy to watch TWO eyes staring back at you from the satellite imagery. I'm just wondering. How does a hurricane form two eyes? I have never come across that before in my studies and in my experience.
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Quoting stormpetrol:

12.1N/50W according to this quikscat.
I see it at 51W and 11N
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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