Invest 94L and the Lesser Antilles

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 9:51 AM GMT on August 30, 2009

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Hi, this is Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Dr. Masters. The convection associated with Invest 94L has intensified, prompting the NHC to issue an early Tropical Weather Outlook to update the situation. Essentially, people in the Lesser Antilles need to start paying attention to the seas and skies. Looking at the computer track models, the set of model solutions are fairly similar to the Saturday model runs. A set of dynamical models (GFDL, HWRF, NOGAPS) runs to the NE of the Antilles, while the simpler models (LBAR, BAM family) are more easterly and take 94L over the Antilles. I do not ascribe any significance to the 00Z GFS track following the simpler models over the dynamical models. From my examination of the 00Z GFS run, it looks like the simulated 94L weakens too much, so the automatic vortex tracker picks up another vorticity feature. As for the future of 94L, there is a large area of large wind shear to it's north. It will need to keep it's track at WNW-W for intensification.

Update at 6AM EDT
I would be remiss if I didn't mention the major hurricane in the Eastern Pacific, Jimena At this time, Jimena has a satellite-estimated maximum wind speed of 115 mph, making it a Category 3 storm on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Jimena has an impressive presentation in satellite imagery with a large area of cold anvil cirrus in the center of the storm. The following microwave imagery indicate the formation of a relatively potent central eyewall, which is responsible for intensification.


Fig. 1 SSMI 85 GHz PCT at 0244Z Aug 30. Image courtesy of NRL.


People along the western coast of Mexico and along along the Baja need to pay close attention to this dangerous storm. I emphasize that using the current track and intensity forecast, Jimena will be a Category 4 storm when it approaches the tip of Baja and a Category 3 storm when it makes landfall up the coast.

It is worth noting that if Jimena follows the more easterly tracks presented in the computer track forecasts, the remnants of Jimena could impact NM and western Texas.


I'll update this entry further in response to 94L's development.


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Pat, why is it that when you post the water vapor loop, it looks like 94L is moving north but visible loop or any others it looks like it is going west.
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Quoting amd:
for all the talk about anticyclones with 94L, it looks like it is stretched out from sw to ne, and 30+ knots of shear is within 150 miles of the "center" of 94L.

I still think that shear keeps 94L an open wave, at least for a while, and the new GFS ends up verifying. JMHO

Link
shear is a result of the anticyclone, not going to affect 94L...plus, you say "keep 94L an open wave", it is not currently an open wave...
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2515
Quoting hunkerdown:
yet krispy kreme-like (as mentioned a few hours ago)


The Doughnut rolls on, wishing some day it might become cream-filled.
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Quoting TexasHurricane:


Hmmm, well I guess they think it is possible that 94l make make it to the GOM.
I don't know about you but I am definitely keeping my eye on it
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Krovanh lost its top right eyewall on radar
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Quoting canesrule1:
But you dismissed the fact that there is a closed surface circulation as indicated by the quikscat. There is a large possibility this will become a TD in the next 24 hours, but there is a very slim possibility (>2%) that 94L will not develop into 06L

And QuikScat has the ability to show a closed circulation where there is none.

I don't disagree that it probably going to be a TD in the next day. But there is a chance it does nothing. And in this business any chance is a chance to consider.
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Over the years I believe there have been several storms with two eyes, especially when that get that intense. I may be wrong, I am sure I will find out after this post.
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Quoting kmanislander:


I don't think so. This from the 8:05

An active tropical wave extends from 18n45w to 8n49w with an
associated 1007 mb surface low center near 11n48w. The wave is
moving W near 15 kt. Satellite imagery indicates elongated
cyclonic flow in the vicinity of the wave axis concentrated
around the low center.
True, but the actual outlook has it moving WNW:

"AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 15 MPH."
about when will dmax occur for 94 L?
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Quoting GatorWX:


It's still going west isn't it?
Thats vague.
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Quoting atmoaggie:

Red simply means they think it has a greater than 50% chance. You really dismiss that there is some chance it never really gets it together?
Yeah, I know it's DMIN.
Danny looked like an impressive wave once upon a time. Lots of near-TDs, like 94L, never get much going, even in what appears to be a somewhat favorable environment.
But you dismissed the fact that there is a closed surface circulation as indicated by the quikscat. There is a large possibility this will become a TD in the next 24 hours, but there is a very slim possibility (>2%) that 94L will not develop into 06L
Quoting canesrule1:
incorrect, the current movement of 94L is WNW at 15 to 20 knots.


I don't think so. This from the 8:05

An active tropical wave extends from 18n45w to 8n49w with an
associated 1007 mb surface low center near 11n48w.
The wave is
moving W near 15 kt. Satellite imagery indicates elongated
cyclonic flow in the vicinity of the wave axis concentrated
around the low center.
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Quoting KATRINABILOXIGIRL:
some guy was on here last night talking about the Navy cancelling a training event due to possible hurricane activity in the GOMEX Sept 6th thru 12th...is there any truth to this...who knows...will have to wait and see...


Hmmm, well I guess they think it is possible that 94l make make it to the GOM.
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I believe the shear is being magnified due to the anticyclonic flow aloft showing this adding to the wind shear out ahead of 94L as others have previously pointed out. I will not take the credit for this observation, just reiterating what has been said which I agree with. Convection looks to be developing slowly over the center.
Member Since: October 21, 2008 Posts: 243 Comments: 3564
Quoting JLPR:


looking more round
yet krispy kreme-like (as mentioned a few hours ago)
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2515
img src="Photobucket" alt="" />
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2642. Patrap
94L is Lifting some in Lat as she tightens and that ULL gets slightly ahead of her too.



Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 414 Comments: 125418
Quoting JLPR:


looking more round


Starting to see some small convective flares developing very near or over the assumed circulation center. Could be beginning to develop some decent convection now.
Member Since: April 14, 2007 Posts: 8 Comments: 5030
Quoting GatorWX:


It's still going west isn't it?
incorrect, the current movement of 94L is WNW at 15 to 20 knots.
Quoting canesrule1:
Well, if the NHC has a red circle around it, why would i choose to put a possibility that this will die, remember we are in DMIN and that is why the convection has died down, at 8 AM tomorrow morning you will change your mind.

Red simply means they think it has a greater than 50% chance. You really dismiss that there is some chance it never really gets it together?
Yeah, I know it's DMIN.
Danny looked like an impressive wave once upon a time. Lots of near-TDs, like 94L, never get much going, even in what appears to be a somewhat favorable environment.
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Quoting GatorWX:


It's still going west isn't it?


According to quikscat it is
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Quoting JLPR:


convection is starting to come back
expect some over the center later tonight
true, it is getting some burst of convection around its outer bands.
I agree with the track TampaSpin showed in the last page. That is similar to the track I point out in my blog. Just go to my handle and its the new updated blog post. I give my thoughts on 94L.
Member Since: October 21, 2008 Posts: 243 Comments: 3564
2635. GatorWX
Quoting stormsurge39:
Is it too soon to talk about 94L possibly going in the GOM? If you dont think it is please tell why.


It's still going west isn't it?
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2633. Patrap
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 414 Comments: 125418
Quoting hydrus:
456-I thought I was seeing things,but can you explain how hurricane Jimena formed two eyes and so close together.Did both eye walls have the same wind speed?


it was an error, there is only 1 eye
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Quoting JLPR:


looking more round


Yes it is.....
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2630. amd
for all the talk about anticyclones with 94L, it looks like it is stretched out from sw to ne, and 30+ knots of shear is within 150 miles of the "center" of 94L.

I still think that shear keeps 94L an open wave, at least for a while, and the new GFS ends up verifying. JMHO

Link
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2628. JLPR


not bad
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 5223
It is amazing last night I went to bed and 94L was marked Yellow by the NHC and now today I look at it and it is marked Red. Could they not see from last night that this storm was something to worry about. Plus it looks 10x's more organized then last night.
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94L looking impressive during the last 2 hrs and the systmem coming off Africa is looking good as well
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Quoting WeatherStudent:



Absolutely! If this forecast actually pans out, I'll be the first one praising you, TS. While everyone else eats crow.


I know that some of you have WS on ignore and for that I should not quote him but I am SHOCKED that he hasn't been banned yet for his plagirism earlier...blows my mind.
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Just got back from dinner and see from the quikscat pass and the TWD that the low pressure center is near 11N 50W now

Caribbean bound
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somebody tell 94L to put some meat on them bones or he is going into the dark watery graveyard.
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Hurricane Jimena does not have two eyes, it was an illusion on that particular satellite loop; the NHC floater and satellite loops don't show two eyes. It has happened in the past, though...no idea what would cause that....
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2620. GatorWX
Quoting StormJunkie:


I don't think it ever really had two eyes. Just part of an EWC and the illusion the rainbow loop created. Any other thoughts on this?


I agree with you, however, like I said, they were very pronounced. Pretty neat looking nonetheless. How have you been SJ. Don't see you around as much as I used to.
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A McIDAS navigational error.
(Dueling Bajos: Dee, Dee, Dee, Dee, Dee, Der, Dee, Der, Dee, Der.)

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This is along the west coast of Mexico, the distance looks ominous with a monster lurking offshore



Rainfall estimates could reach 8 inches with localised higher amounts

Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
2617. Patrap
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 414 Comments: 125418
2616. JLPR
Quoting canesrule1:
Well, if the NHC has a red circle around it, why would i choose to put a possibility that this will die, remember we are in DMIN and that is why the convection has died down, at 8 AM tomorrow morning you will change your mind.


convection is starting to come back
expect some over the center later tonight
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 5223
Quoting JLPR:


looking more round
yes, it is organizing structurally wise, if it can get some good convection this DMAX, there is no doubt in my mind we will have 06L in the morning.
Quoting TexasHurricane:


yeah, I wonder that too. It very well could down the road....
I guess its too soon to tell. I would assume this high that everyone is talking about, would also steer it into tha GOM!
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Quoting stormsurge39:
Is it too soon to talk about 94L possibly going in the GOM? If you dont think it is please tell why.
some guy was on here last night talking about the Navy cancelling a training event due to possible hurricane activity in the GOMEX Sept 6th thru 12th...is there any truth to this...who knows...will have to wait and see...
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A couple thinks I'm keeping an eye one.
1)Something in the Gulf.
2)94L
3)Wave about to come of of Africa.
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2611. hydrus
Quoting jipmg:


it means it has a smaller eye inside a bigger eye ! It has happened before, I think Wilma would be an example? Or recently Bill?
I think 1954,s Edna actually did have two eyes according to the recon flight.They snapped a picture of it while in the storm.Saw it in one of my old text books.It was strange.
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2610. BDADUDE
2601. canesrule1 1:42 AM GMT on August 31, 2009
Quoting FLGatorCaneNut:


This is based on your opinion, the opinion of others, or reliable data
it is based on facts and reliable

thousands wouldnt believe that cane
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2609. GatorWX
Quoting Weather456:
Rapid intensification of Jimena



could be a devesating blow to Cabo San Lucas



Jimena is for one, very compact, so unless she strikes a heavily populated area, damage should be fairly isolated, though severw. Also, Jimena will be leaving her prime hot waters and traveling into much cooler water, although certainly still warm enough to sustain a strong storm, but nothing like where she's at now. Time will tell.
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Quoting atmoaggie:

What? No chance it does nothing at all?
GFS refuses to be impressed by 94L's environment.
Well, if the NHC has a red circle around it, why would i choose to put a possibility that this will die, remember we are in DMIN and that is why the convection has died down, at 8 AM tomorrow morning you will change your mind.

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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.