Invest 94L and the Lesser Antilles

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 9:51 AM GMT on August 30, 2009

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Hi, this is Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Dr. Masters. The convection associated with Invest 94L has intensified, prompting the NHC to issue an early Tropical Weather Outlook to update the situation. Essentially, people in the Lesser Antilles need to start paying attention to the seas and skies. Looking at the computer track models, the set of model solutions are fairly similar to the Saturday model runs. A set of dynamical models (GFDL, HWRF, NOGAPS) runs to the NE of the Antilles, while the simpler models (LBAR, BAM family) are more easterly and take 94L over the Antilles. I do not ascribe any significance to the 00Z GFS track following the simpler models over the dynamical models. From my examination of the 00Z GFS run, it looks like the simulated 94L weakens too much, so the automatic vortex tracker picks up another vorticity feature. As for the future of 94L, there is a large area of large wind shear to it's north. It will need to keep it's track at WNW-W for intensification.

Update at 6AM EDT
I would be remiss if I didn't mention the major hurricane in the Eastern Pacific, Jimena At this time, Jimena has a satellite-estimated maximum wind speed of 115 mph, making it a Category 3 storm on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Jimena has an impressive presentation in satellite imagery with a large area of cold anvil cirrus in the center of the storm. The following microwave imagery indicate the formation of a relatively potent central eyewall, which is responsible for intensification.


Fig. 1 SSMI 85 GHz PCT at 0244Z Aug 30. Image courtesy of NRL.


People along the western coast of Mexico and along along the Baja need to pay close attention to this dangerous storm. I emphasize that using the current track and intensity forecast, Jimena will be a Category 4 storm when it approaches the tip of Baja and a Category 3 storm when it makes landfall up the coast.

It is worth noting that if Jimena follows the more easterly tracks presented in the computer track forecasts, the remnants of Jimena could impact NM and western Texas.


I'll update this entry further in response to 94L's development.


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Quoting mikatnight:


What? WHAT? They banned Storm!!!??? No way...

Way. And I hope they retract it - we'll need him.
Member Since: September 5, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3488
Quoting pottery:
LOL Taz.
Dont push your luck.
What do you think about 94L? Where is it going?



mode runs are all runing a little nuts right now so they wont help us there and has for where 94L is going not sure
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115456
Quoting stormsurge39:
I miss Melbourne, i was born there and lived until i was 9. Great place
I'm attending FIT for meteorology. I love it here.
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2805. GetReal



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2804. Patrap
Atlantic 3 Hour Loops in 4 Channels
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2803. flsky
Quoting WeatherStudent:


Excuse me?


I wish someone could explain to me why he's so clueless - or feigns to be. Maybe there are some psychological issues involved.
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Just thought I would let you know I'm back. 94L sure is a difficult one to figure out but still looks pretty much west to me.


Welcome back. The same debate that was happening when you left is still going on LOL.

Nothing missed.
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2801. GatorWX
Quoting JRRP:
sorry but looks like 14n 49w


agreed!
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2800. Patrap
Its not smoke and mirrors or rocket science..the LLC has tightened and the whole system became more symmetrical,..

That and the ULL getting a lil ahead of 94L has Lifted the whole envelope a few degrees N the Last 6 Hours

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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Taz..they don't ban for spelling so you are safe :)



ok lol
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115456
Quoting KEHCharleston:
How about copyright infringement. Seriously folks, make sure you have permission to post an image that is the property of another entity.


StormW got ban for the gieco image which listed under inappropriate images. I dont like it but thats what he was ban for.

You can post any topic or weather related photo with/without such permissions, since we all know where to find them.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Quoting hurricanehanna:

I missed it- what was plagiarized?
Mail
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2796. pottery
LOL Taz.
Dont push your luck.
What do you think about 94L? Where is it going?
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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
StormW..if you still have them, I think it's time to put back up on your blog the abbreviation list!
I agree!
StormW's blog is active. I hope it stays that way.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Just checking in and jeez, sorry I do not usually post on these matters, I usually stay far clear.

But, reading above, you all are talking on StormW getting banned?

That is outrageous. THE most knowledgable person posting usually?

I really wonder sometimes.

Night.
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Quoting KEHCharleston:
How about copyright infringement. Seriously folks, make sure you have permission to post an image that is the property of another entity.



right other thing am seeing some of you posting thing from the weather ch
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115456
Kman...our voice of reason!
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Quoting cchsweatherman:
I don't know which is more baffling: the computer models with Invest 94L or the fact that StormW gets banned for some humor while WeatherStudent gets off scotch free despite committing a crime in plagiarism? I really want to hear the logic Wunderground administration has for this because I can't find any logical reasons.


What? WHAT? They banned Storm!!!??? No way...
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Quoting KEHCharleston:
How about copyright infringement. Seriously folks, make sure you have permission to post an image that is the property of another entity.


If you go back to all my posts with images, I site my sources or give credit to the providers. Some images have the company or website's logo, so no sourcing or crediting is needed.
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Quoting Weather456:


all part of 2009 Hurricane Season.


cant imagine what september will bring.
A GOMEX train....of course.
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2786. centex
This all should not be a surprise, if it didn't develop it would track more west and go into carribean.
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A view at the more sophisticated global models. Early 00z
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13841
Quoting JRRP:
sorry but looks like 14n 49w


It does look that way on the satellite and that could only be the center of the surface low if it has suddenly relocated further N by several degrees. That type of relocation typically only occurs when deep convection pulls the low towards it and there is no such convection present here.

Without a visible image I would caution against drawing conclusions based upon a night time sat loop.
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Taz..they don't ban for spelling so you are safe :)
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2782. pottery
duprk452.
Go to the bottom of this page. Click on Blog Index.
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Quoting jipmg:



they are?!! LOL



anyhow, Jimena is blind, and thats all I have to say for now..oh, I almost forgot, Imagine how cold this winter will be for FLA, with cold fronts making there way into North FLA in AUGUST?
which models show fl?
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Quoting Tazmanian:
they can nevere Ban me from this blog am the Taz man



O RLY?
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JFV...do you foresee this as a south Florida land threater or going out to sea?
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Quoting Tazmanian:
they can nevere Ban me from this blog am the Taz man
Never say never. I was banned yesterday and I still don't know why. Just got back on.
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2777. Patrap
Admin will deal with WS soon enough as it may have to wait till Morning on the West Coast In Frisco.

Aaron will see the Flags and take the appropriate action/actions.
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Quoting WeatherStudent:


Excuse me?


Whats there to excuse? I actually thought I've made myself perfectly clear.
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2775. jipmg
Quoting Patrap:


what do they say after that
Quoting cchsweatherman:
I don't know which is more baffling: the computer models with Invest 94L or the fact that StormW gets banned for some humor while WeatherStudent gets off scotch free despite committing a crime in plagiarism? I really want to hear the logic Wunderground administration has for this because I can't find any logical reasons.
How about copyright infringement. Seriously folks, make sure you have permission to post an image that is the property of another entity.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting cchsweatherman:
I don't know which is more baffling: the computer models with Invest 94L or the fact that StormW gets banned for some humor while WeatherStudent gets off scotch free despite committing a crime in plagiarism? I really want to hear the logic Wunderground administration has for this because I can't find any logical reasons.


all part of 2009 Hurricane Season.


cant imagine what september will bring.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Quoting amd:


What can cause a "low pressure" system to become titled like that?


Shear for one
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Quoting kmanislander:
The 850 mb vorticity with 94L is all the way up near 14 to 16N. That is what is predominant on the sat images and loops.

The surface low is closer to 11 and 12N.

It is tilted from the SW to the NE
Just thought I would let you know I'm back. 94L sure is a difficult one to figure out but still looks pretty much west to me.
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Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
Sitting on Melbourne Beach, Fl watching a beautiful lightning storm offshore. All the excitement doesn't always have to come from the tropics, ya' know? ;) Have a good night everyone.
I miss Melbourne, i was born there and lived until i was 9. Great place
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When is the stalled trough suppost to retreat? is the ULL moving faster to the west than 94L is moving? is a high still predicted to position itself near the upper east coast of the US?

sorry for the 21 questions
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2766. Patrap

All current blogs are found in the wunderblog directory,click on the entry Title to see comments there.

Or click any Handle here to go to any one's Blog
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2764. JRRP
sorry but looks like 14n 49w
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Sitting on Melbourne Beach, Fl watching a beautiful lightning storm offshore. All the excitement doesn't always have to come from the tropics, ya' know? ;) Have a good night everyone.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I don't know which is more baffling: the computer models with Invest 94L or the fact that StormW gets banned for some humor while WeatherStudent gets off scotch free despite committing a crime in plagiarism? I really want to hear the logic Wunderground administration has for this because I can't find any logical reasons.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2761. amd
Quoting kmanislander:
The 850 mb vorticity with 94L is all the way up near 14 to 16N. That is what is predominant on the sat images and loops.

The surface low is closer to 11 and 12N.

It is tilted from the SW to the NE


What can cause a "low pressure" system to become titled like that?
Member Since: August 29, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1024
can someone post the link to StormW's blog?
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2759. Patrap
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2758. GatorWX
Just saw the ir floater of 94, haven't really been paying too much attention, but it is looking good now. I know the llc is nearly devoid of convection, but this is changing.

To those who have commented on the convection firing, it is indeed. Right near the center too. This should not only help it become a TD, but will also make the allusion of its northern movement nonexistent. If it keeps up, could be a td in the late morning, early afternoon.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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