Adieu to Danny

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 9:50 AM GMT on August 29, 2009

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Hi, Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Dr. Masters. With the 5AM EST update, NHC has discontinued issuing the tropical storm watches and will no longer issue any updates about the storm. Danny has gone extratropical and has merged with a frontal low off the Carolina coast. The most recent aircraft reconnaissance flight was unable to find a cyclonic circulation or tropical storm force winds in the remnants of Danny.

That isn't to say that Danny's remnants don't pose an element of risk for the East Coast. High surf from large swells is expected along the East Coast. New England can expect to see a lot of rain as Denny's remnants fly by.

Invest 94L

Invest 94L is still out near South America, but it's convective activity seems to be cycling down right now. The global models (GFS and GEM) do pull 94L (to be precise, a feature that could be 94L) north of the Lesser Antilles. Given how the GFDL has performed with other Invests this season, I can wait a day or so before they run the GFDL for this storm.

East Pacific and elsewhere

For those of you wanting to look at tropical storms, Jimena has just formed in the Eastern Pacific basin. The track uncertainty is fairly large, so I'll be keeping an eye on this storm to see if it will impact Mexico or the American Southwest. In the Western Pacific, Tropical Storm Krovahn looks like it will be grazing the Japanese coastline just east of Tokyo Bay.

I'll give Invest94L a chance to see the Sun and then I'll update this entry.

Update:1545 EDT

G'afternoon everybody, Invest94L has perked up a little since this's morning blog entry. In my judgment, the extent and peak magnitude of convection has increased, and scatterometer data shows that Invest94L has a weak cyclonic circulation. Here's the 9Z ascending pass:

Quickscat Pass over Invest94L
Figure 1Ascending Quikscat pass centered over Invest94L at 9Z Aug 29 2009.

There will be a big update tonight after the 00Z model cycle data comes in.

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2017. hunkerdown
9:55 AM GMT on August 30, 2009
new blog
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2515
2016. Cavin Rawlins
9:52 AM GMT on August 30, 2009
Good morning, the difference a day makes

Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
2015. 789
9:49 AM GMT on August 30, 2009
those are the two runs ,those will be thrown out ,start all over
Member Since: July 18, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 262
2014. yonzabam
9:43 AM GMT on August 30, 2009
I don't think many on here are interested in tropical depressions in the western Pacific, but if you just like cutting and pasting for the hell of it . . . .
Member Since: July 20, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3013
2013. 789
9:43 AM GMT on August 30, 2009
Quoting markymark1973:
The latest models ran on 94L are on crack :) GFS especially. You can throw those all out.
is it going fish then
Member Since: July 18, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 262
2012. ackee
9:33 AM GMT on August 30, 2009
see 94L now has medium chance of develop can someone show centre of 94L seem like trying to come under the convection
Member Since: July 15, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1376
2011. markymark1973
9:30 AM GMT on August 30, 2009
The latest models ran on 94L are on crack :) GFS especially. You can throw those all out.
2010. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
9:26 AM GMT on August 30, 2009
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Disturbance Summary
TROPICAL DEPRESSION
15:00 PM JST August 30 2009
=========================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression "CP022009" (1006 hPa) located at 15.0N 178.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 40 knots and is reported as moving west at 15 knots.

---
Poor cyclone is struggling now

Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 46997
2009. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
9:25 AM GMT on August 30, 2009
National Hurricane Center
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #4
TROPICAL CYCLONE KEVIN (EP142009)
9:00 AM UTC August 30 2009
=============================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Kevin (1000 hPa) located at 14.1N 121.9W or 865 NM southwest of the southern tip of Baja California has sustained winds of 45 knots with gusts of 55 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north at 6 knots.

Gale-Force Winds
================
55 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=====================
12 HRS: 14.7N 121.9W - 50 kts (Tropical Storm)
24 HRS: 15.5N 121.4W - 50 kts (Tropical Storm)
48 HRS: 16.9N 120.2W - 40 kts (Tropical Storm)
72 HRS: 18.3N 119.1W - 40 kts (Tropical Storm)
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 46997
2008. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
9:25 AM GMT on August 30, 2009
National Hurricane Center
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #7
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE JIMENA (EP132009)
9:00 AM UTC August 29 2009
=============================

SUBJECT: Interest in Western Mexico and the southern Baja California should monitor the progress of "Jimena"

At 6:00 AM UTC, Hurricane Jimena (965 hPa) located at 16.0N 105.7W or 265 NM south of Cabo Corrientes, Mexico has sustained winds of 100 knots with gusts of 120 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northwest at 10 knots.

Hurricane-Force Winds
======================
20 NM from the center

Gale/Storm-Force Winds
========================
60 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=====================
12 HRS: 16.8N 106.8W - 110 kts (SSHS-3 Cyclone)
24 HRS: 17.9N 107.9W - 125 kts (SSHS-4 Cyclone)
48 HRS: 20.9N 110.0W - 120 kts (SSHS-4 Cyclone)
72 HRS: 24.5N 111.9W - 100 kts (SSHS-3 Cyclone)
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 46997
2007. yonzabam
9:21 AM GMT on August 30, 2009
94L back to orange again

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
515 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SPECIAL OUTLOOK ISSUED TO UPDATE DISCUSSION OF LOW PRESSURE AREA
EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.

1. UPDATED...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 1075
MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. THIS SYSTEM IS SHOWING SOME
SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...AND ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 15
MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 TO 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. INTERESTS IN
THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

Member Since: July 20, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3013
2006. ChrisCone
8:36 AM GMT on August 30, 2009
Quoting IpswichWeatherCenter:
Would someone care to explain how jimena just intensified alot higher than the 80kt originally predicted?


the possibilities in the weather are endless
2005. ChrisCone
8:16 AM GMT on August 30, 2009
94L looks pretty weak now, looks like that means a more westerly track for the meantime. Not looking good
2004. yonzabam
8:13 AM GMT on August 30, 2009
Quoting IpswichWeatherCenter:
Would someone care to explain how jimena just intensified alot higher than the 80kt originally predicted?


Don't watch the Pacific much, but Jimena is headed for cat 4 status and may skim along the S. Baja coast. Just as well it's not densely populated like the northern part of it.

I noted some days ago that sea temperatures in some parts of the far east Pacific are an incredible 5C above normal, presumably due to El Nino.
Member Since: July 20, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3013
2003. IpswichWeatherCenter
8:05 AM GMT on August 30, 2009
Would someone care to explain how jimena just intensified alot higher than the 80kt originally predicted?
Member Since: April 27, 2008 Posts: 29 Comments: 2097
2001. winter123
7:45 AM GMT on August 30, 2009
half the models plow jimena into mexico.

Member Since: July 29, 2006 Posts: 28 Comments: 1802
2000. winter123
7:43 AM GMT on August 30, 2009
Quoting JLPR:
oh and some comedy before going =P

LOOK! IT HAS A PINHOLE EYE! xD



jimena does though. if that thing was gonna make landfall it'd be apocalypric for mexico
Member Since: July 29, 2006 Posts: 28 Comments: 1802
1999. Tracker09
7:38 AM GMT on August 30, 2009
This thing is getting it's act together. RAPIDLY
Member Since: August 12, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 14
1998. CUBWF
7:24 AM GMT on August 30, 2009
I'm seen the 1008 mb is the one reported on the bouy 41041 that is further north by 3 degrees. The llc may be lower. Just what I think.
1997. Magicchaos
7:23 AM GMT on August 30, 2009
My public advisory for Two-C

Night all
Member Since: April 3, 2009 Posts: 107 Comments: 382
1996. JLPR
7:23 AM GMT on August 30, 2009
oh and some comedy before going =P

LOOK! IT HAS A PINHOLE EYE! xD

Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 5223
1995. JLPR
7:21 AM GMT on August 30, 2009
well then now im going to bed too =]

Here I leave this before going
Before


and After:


im expecting an orange circle at 8am, that is if it doesn't fell apart before then
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 5223
1994. THUNDERPR
7:18 AM GMT on August 30, 2009
me too see later
Member Since: August 11, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 339
1993. THUNDERPR
7:17 AM GMT on August 30, 2009
yeahp
Member Since: August 11, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 339
1992. JLPR
7:17 AM GMT on August 30, 2009
Ha! I bet some of you thought I went to bed lol xD
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 5223
1991. JLPR
7:17 AM GMT on August 30, 2009
Quoting THUNDERPR:
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL942009) 20090830 0600 UTC

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 11.2N LONCUR = 45.1W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 15KT
LATM12 = 10.6N LONM12 = 42.0W DIRM12 = 272DEG SPDM12 = 14KT
LATM24 = 10.7N LONM24 = 39.2W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



I see we got 1008mb now
its actually a little stronger now
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 5223
1990. Bobbyweather
7:14 AM GMT on August 30, 2009
AL, 94, 2009083006, , BEST, 0, 112N, 451W, 25, 1008, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 150, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M

Updated August 30, 2009 0703 UTC

Member Since: September 7, 2006 Posts: 91 Comments: 2679
1989. THUNDERPR
7:05 AM GMT on August 30, 2009
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL942009) 20090830 0600 UTC

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 11.2N LONCUR = 45.1W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 15KT
LATM12 = 10.6N LONM12 = 42.0W DIRM12 = 272DEG SPDM12 = 14KT
LATM24 = 10.7N LONM24 = 39.2W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

Member Since: August 11, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 339
1988. GBguy88
7:03 AM GMT on August 30, 2009
Jimena is really taking off. Worth a look. Eyewall looking really impressive, and the eye is quite visible now.
Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 488
1987. THUNDERPR
6:55 AM GMT on August 30, 2009
agree looking much better for me is a treath for us.
Member Since: August 11, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 339
1986. JLPR
6:54 AM GMT on August 30, 2009
Quoting btwntx08:
anyways im out nite jlpr


night
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 5223
1984. JLPR
6:52 AM GMT on August 30, 2009
Quoting THUNDERPR:
a big diferrence jlpr


yep that's what I thought
before blackout and after blackout xD

94L is shy lol it wanted to keep its convection a secret with the blackout
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 5223
1983. THUNDERPR
6:49 AM GMT on August 30, 2009
a big diferrence jlpr
Member Since: August 11, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 339
1982. JLPR
6:47 AM GMT on August 30, 2009


there with that you can get a good idea of how much better 94L is looking

Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 5223
1981. JLPR
6:41 AM GMT on August 30, 2009
Quoting THUNDERPR:
30/0345 UTC 10.7N 45.2W T1.0/1.0 94L
29/2345 UTC 10.3N 44.8W T1.0/1.0 94L
29/1745 UTC 10.3N 44.1W T1.0/1.0 94L
29/1145 UTC 9.8N 42.4W TOO WEAK 94L


I would say the center is much more north than 10.7N
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 5223
1980. THUNDERPR
6:40 AM GMT on August 30, 2009
30/0345 UTC 10.7N 45.2W T1.0/1.0 94L
29/2345 UTC 10.3N 44.8W T1.0/1.0 94L
29/1745 UTC 10.3N 44.1W T1.0/1.0 94L
29/1145 UTC 9.8N 42.4W TOO WEAK 94L
Member Since: August 11, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 339
1979. JLPR
6:40 AM GMT on August 30, 2009
Quoting btwntx08:

yep still needs to expand and we are underway


yep and with the readings in that buoy I will say a TD could form soon
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 5223
1978. JLPR
6:39 AM GMT on August 30, 2009
... errm I mean later today xD
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 5223
1977. THUNDERPR
6:38 AM GMT on August 30, 2009
30/0345 UTC 10.7N 45.2W T1.0/1.0 94L -- Atlantic
Member Since: August 11, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 339
1976. markymark1973
6:38 AM GMT on August 30, 2009
Quoting GetReal:
More evidence that 94L is becoming better organized.....http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/trop_ge_vis_ls_0.html

It does show 94L is trying to wrap up now. It also shows how hostile conditions are to its N and W. I think 94L just came in at the wrong time for development. If atmospheric conditions were good this would be a shoe in for a Cat 3.
1974. THUNDERPR
6:37 AM GMT on August 30, 2009
agree with you jlpr
Member Since: August 11, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 339
1973. JLPR
6:35 AM GMT on August 30, 2009
it looks like a orange circle seems likely for 94L tomorrow

Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 5223
1972. TampaSpin
6:34 AM GMT on August 30, 2009
We may be in blackout now.....so good nite everyone.....see you all tomorrow am. Nite you all and good conversation tonite.....THANKS
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
1971. GetReal
6:31 AM GMT on August 30, 2009
More evidence that 94L is becoming better organized.....http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/trop_ge_vis_ls_0.html
Member Since: July 4, 2005 Posts: 204 Comments: 8898
1969. homelesswanderer
6:25 AM GMT on August 30, 2009
At the end of this I think it shows a big high over the SE US into parts of ATL/GOM. And the tail end of the cold front. To me the low to the west of the high doesn't look like a major trough like we've been seeing that could break the ridge down. Am I wrong about that? Just curious. Trying to learn to read these things. :)
Link
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 10 Comments: 3665
1968. THUNDERPR
6:24 AM GMT on August 30, 2009
yes Tampaspin 1008.9 and trend falling
Member Since: August 11, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 339
1967. THUNDERPR
6:23 AM GMT on August 30, 2009
Supplemental Measurements Highest 1-minute Wind Speed
Time (GMT) WSPD WDIR
0543 24.9 kts NE ( 54 deg true )
Member Since: August 11, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 339

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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