Danny still weak

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 7:32 PM GMT on August 28, 2009

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Tropical Storm Danny continues to look unhealthy, with an exposed low-level center and the main heavy thunderstorms well to the east. The center is oval instead of circular, which may portend that this center will dissipate and a new center will form under the heaviest thunderstorm activity. Danny has more of the appearance of a subtropical storm than a tropical storm on satellite imagery, and this structure will slow down any potential intensification. The amount of heavy thunderstorm activity has increased in the past few hours, though no thunderstorms have formed near the center. The latest Hurricane Hunter mission found one small spot of 45 mph surface winds between 1 - 3 pm EDT today, so Danny may barely qualify as a tropical storm. Danny's center may have begun moving to the north over the past hour, giving confidence that the storm's strongest winds and rain will stay offshore of North Carolina tonight and Saturday morning.


Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image at 3:03 pm EDT of Danny, showing the exposed swirl of clouds where Danny's center is, well displaced from the heaviest thunderstorm activity to the east. The center is oval-shaped and not circular, the sign of a weak circulation.

The forecast for Danny
With wind shear at 15 knots this afternoon, and forecast to increase to 20 knots tonight and 30 knots Saturday morning, it is unlikely Danny will be able to strengthen to more than a 50 mph tropical storm. Dry air from the upper-level low that has been keeping Danny disorganized continues to be a problem for the storm, as well. Most of the intensity forecast models continue to insist Danny will strengthen, but they have been doing a very poor job forecasting the intensity of Danny. With Danny's heavy thunderstorms all on the east side of the storm, it is unlikely that North Carolina or New England will feel tropical storm force winds from Danny when it scoots past on Saturday. Large swells from Danny creating high surf along the beaches of New England will be the primary hazard from the storm.

Massachusetts hurricane history
Two tropical storms have affected Massachusetts in the past decade, though neither of these storms brought sustained winds of tropical storm force (39 mph) to the state. Tropical Storm Beryl of 2006 just missed Cape Cod as a weak tropical storm with 45 mph winds. Beryl brought wind gusts to tropical storm force to Nantucket Island, and a 1 foot storm surge. Tropical Storm Hermine hit southeast Massachusetts on August 31, 2004, as a minimum-strength tropical storm with 40 mph winds. No land stations in Massachusetts reported tropical storm force winds during Beryl. The last time Massachusetts measured tropical storm force winds was in 1997 during that year's version of Tropical Storm Danny. Chatham recorded sustained winds of 44 mph, and Nantucket had 43 mph winds. The last time Massachusetts had hurricane force winds was in 1991 during Hurricane Bob, which hit Rhode Island as a Category 2 hurricane. Provincetown, Massachusetts measured sustained winds of 98 mph, gusting to 115 mph, and Buzzard's Bay received a 15 foot storm surge.

Invest 94L
The well-organized tropical wave (94L) mid-way between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands continues to be a threat to develop into a tropical depression in the next day or two. Water vapor satellite loops show that 94L has moistened the region surrounding it considerably today, and the storm is not ingesting as much dry air as this morning. However, visible satellite loops show only a small amount of heavy thunderstorm activity near the circulation center, which is broad and elongated from east to west. Shear is low, about 10 knots, and is expected to remain low, 5 - 10 knots, over the next five days. The waters are warm enough to support development, 27°C, and are expected to remain in the 27 - 28°C range over the next five days. It appears that 94L needs another 1 - 3 days to develop a well-formed circulation and become a tropical depression, given the favorable environment. NHC is giving 94L a medium (30 - 50% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday. Most of the models predict 94L will Be affected by two troughs of low pressure over the next week, which will pull the storm far enough north so that it will miss the Lesser Antilles Islands. It is then probable that 94L will be forced to the west again as the high pressure ridge steering the storm builds back in. The possible long-term threat to the U.S. East Coast is impossible to evaluate at this time.

I'm in New York City this weekend for my cousin's wedding, so will not be blogging again until Monday morning. In my absence, wundergound's severe storms expert, Dr. Rob Carver, will be posting in my blog Saturday and Sunday.

Jeff Masters

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1062. IKE
9:54 AM GMT on August 29, 2009
NEW BLOG!!!!!!!!!!!
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
1061. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
9:49 AM GMT on August 29, 2009
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #10
TROPICAL STORM KROVAHN (T0911)
18:00 PM JST August 29 2009
=========================================

Subject: Category One Typhoon Near Ogasawara Shoto

At 9:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Krovahn (994 hPa) located at 27.9N 146.6E has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 60 knots. The storm is reported as moving north-northwest at 13 knots.

RSMC Dvorak Intensity:

Gale-Force Winds
================
180 NM from the center in eastern quadrant
90 NM from the center in western quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
======================
24 HRS: 32.0N 141.1E - 55 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm)
45 HRS: 36.2N 141.2E - 55 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm)
69 HRS: 42.4N 148.0E - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44780
1060. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
9:46 AM GMT on August 29, 2009
Central Pacific Hurricane Center
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CP022009
9:00 AM UTC August 29 2009
=============================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression Two-C (1007 hPa) located at 15.0N 178.1W or 510 west of Johnston Island has sustained winds of 30 knots with a gust of 40 knots. The depression is reported as moving west at 6 knots.

Forecast and Intensity
======================
24 HRS: 15.4N 179.1E - 35 kts (Tropical Storm)
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44780
1059. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
9:46 AM GMT on August 29, 2009
National Hurricane Center
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #2
TROPICAL CYCLONE JIMENA (EP132009)
9:00 AM UTC August 29 2009
=============================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Jimena (1006 hPa) located at 14.1N 102.3W or 220 southwest of Acapulco, Mexico has sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 10 knots.

Forecast and Intensity
=====================
12 HRS: 14.4N 103.5W - 40 kts (Tropical Storm)
24 HRS: 14.9N 104.8W - 50 kts (Tropical Storm)
48 HRS: 16.4N 107.3W - 75 kts (SSHS-1 Cyclone)
72 HRS: 19.5N 110.0W - 80 kts (SSHS-1 Cyclone)
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44780
1058. IKE
9:45 AM GMT on August 29, 2009
00Z ECMWF....South America view, shows a couple of lows coming off Africa. First one dies out as it moves west through the EATL. Second one affects the Cape Verdes.

Shows nothing for the Caribbean islands west through the USA through September 8th.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
1057. markymark1973
9:33 AM GMT on August 29, 2009
Quoting bcn:
Nothing anywhere in next 15 days, probably season is ended.


That is VERY possible.
1056. markymark1973
9:30 AM GMT on August 29, 2009
Goodbye 94L. Easterlies are tearing everything up and winning the battle this year. Bill actually was an impressive system from the get go and just got lucky. Unless there is a big pattern change for September the tropics will be dead. El Nino years are so boring:(
1055. bcn
9:25 AM GMT on August 29, 2009
Nothing anywhere in next 15 days, probably season is ended.

Member Since: August 20, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 62
1054. ackee
9:14 AM GMT on August 29, 2009
just seem like 94L going to despiate
Member Since: July 15, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1352
1053. IKE
9:07 AM GMT on August 29, 2009
And still no model runs since 6Z yesterday from GFDL and HWRF on 94L.

From looking at it, RIP is becoming more likely with it too.....

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
1052. KoritheMan
9:02 AM GMT on August 29, 2009
Quoting IKE:
Tropical Depression DANNY
...DANNY RAPIDLY BECOMING ABSORBED BY AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW...
5:00 AM EDT Sat Aug 29
Location: 34.3N 74.6W
Max sustained: 35 mph
Moving: NNE at 30 mph
Min pressure: 1007 mb


When one dies, another is born:

...TENTH TROPICAL STORM OF THE 2009 EAST PACIFIC SEASON FORMS SOUTH OF MEXICO...
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 556 Comments: 19960
1051. IKE
8:51 AM GMT on August 29, 2009
RIP Danny!


Bye-bye Danny....what a waste of a name...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION DANNY DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052009
500 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2009

SATELLITE IMAGES...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT DANNY IS RAPIDLY BECOMING
ABSORBED BY A FRONTAL LOW WHICH IS DEVELOPING OVER NORTH CAROLINA.
IN FACT...THE PLANE TRAVERSED THE POSSIBLE LOCATION OF DANNY A
COUPLE TIMES AND DID NOT FIND ANY SIGNIFICANT CYCLONIC WIND
SHIFT NOR DID IT MEASURE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS AT THE SURFACE.
THEREFORE...ADVISORIES ON DANNY HAVE BEEN TERMINATED AND THE
TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE EXTRATROPICAL LOW
WILL MOVE TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND THEN NORTHEAST AND ITS
POTENTIAL IMPACTS WILL BE HANDLED WITH GALE WARNINGS AND OTHER
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY LOCAL NWS OFFICES IN THAT REGION. ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS
ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER
NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 29/0900Z 34.3N 74.6W 30 KT...BECOMING ABSORBED
12HR VT 29/1800Z 38.0N 73.0W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
24HR VT 30/0600Z 41.2N 69.2W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
36HR VT 30/1800Z 46.2N 62.8W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 31/0600Z 49.5N 56.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 01/0600Z 54.5N 43.5W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 02/0600Z 56.5N 27.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 03/0600Z 57.0N 10.1W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
1050. IKE
8:49 AM GMT on August 29, 2009
Tropical Depression DANNY
...DANNY RAPIDLY BECOMING ABSORBED BY AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW...
5:00 AM EDT Sat Aug 29
Location: 34.3°N 74.6°W
Max sustained: 35 mph
Moving: NNE at 30 mph
Min pressure: 1007 mb
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
1049. WeafhermanNimmy
8:14 AM GMT on August 29, 2009
Storm information valid as of: Saturday, August 29, 2009 6:00 Z
Coordinates: 33.0N 75.1W (View Map or View Storm Centered Satellite Image)
Location: 158 miles (254 km) to the S (171°) from Cape Hatteras, NC, USA
Distance Calculator: How far away is this storm from me?
Pressure (MSLP): 1007 mb (29.74 inHg | 1007 hPa)
Sustained wind speed (1 min. avg.): 30 knots (35 mph | 15 m/s)

Next advisory: Tropical Depression Danny...Last Advisory! I think.
Member Since: November 1, 2003 Posts: 4 Comments: 234
1048. skycycle
7:59 AM GMT on August 29, 2009
two tropical depressions in the pacific, probably will be upgraded to jimena and kevin next advisory... already we will have 13 named storms in the pacific, with a busy august...
Member Since: August 26, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 189
1047. charlesimages
7:53 AM GMT on August 29, 2009
Quoting centex:
They say being absorbed by front and may discontinue advisories in morning, soon.
Sounds like a plan
Member Since: May 25, 2006 Posts: 347 Comments: 29278
1046. centex
7:32 AM GMT on August 29, 2009
It's been a bad week for models. What happened to Cat 1. Maybe there head got too big with Bill.
Member Since: August 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3226
1045. OracleDeAtlantis
7:31 AM GMT on August 29, 2009
Quoting jipmg:
Im going to keep an eye on that area of convection South east of Danny, I think it could actually seperate itself from DANNY, and try to turn into something


Definitely something to watch, especially given where the trough is right now, which is [ lifting out quickly. ] It would appear to be leaving the mid level circulation behind, with high pressure aloft.





Member Since: August 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 502
1044. centex
7:28 AM GMT on August 29, 2009
Quoting charlesimages:
Danny is the most odd looking TS I have ever seen.. With that exposed center all like that without thunderstorms nearby.. odd..
They say being absorbed by front and may discontinue advisories in morning, soon.
Member Since: August 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3226
1043. charlesimages
7:25 AM GMT on August 29, 2009
Danny is the most odd looking TS I have ever seen.. With that exposed center all like that without thunderstorms nearby.. odd..
Member Since: May 25, 2006 Posts: 347 Comments: 29278
1042. centex
7:25 AM GMT on August 29, 2009
Quoting ChrisCone:
i was thinking, if 94L took its time to develop and stayed going west long enough, the GFS seems to want to place a large consistent ridge over the eastern US... however, whatever 94L becomes would have to wait until the trough off the East Coast weakens which will take about a week, maybe more. Once this trough dies out, the high looks like it will slowly move East, and most of the troughs seem to pass north of the Northeastern US. If this high developed, it would leave opened a good 7 to 14 day period where there would be a lack of easterlies to turn storms into fishies, assuming a storm can sneak under the stalled trough off the coast. But also, in theory, it would make it a little more difficult to get storms coming up the coast.
I thing a wave can pass under and form west far enough to not be a fish.
Member Since: August 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3226
1041. ChrisCone
7:23 AM GMT on August 29, 2009
Quoting JLPR:
Also 94L looking ok... not great... but surviving

right now im thinking the center must be between the strongest area of convection west of 40W and the weaker convection east of 40W



it looks like cookie monster after eating cookies!

it also still looks like it is likely to develop into something over time
1040. ChrisCone
7:20 AM GMT on August 29, 2009
i was thinking, if 94L took its time to develop and stayed going west long enough, the GFS seems to want to place a large consistent ridge over the eastern US... however, whatever 94L becomes would have to wait until the trough off the East Coast weakens which will take about a week, maybe more. Once this trough dies out, the high looks like it will slowly move East, and most of the troughs seem to pass north of the Northeastern US. If this high developed, it would leave opened a good 7 to 14 day period where there would be a lack of easterlies to turn storms into fishies, assuming a storm can sneak under the stalled trough off the coast. But also, in theory, it would make it a little more difficult to get storms coming up the coast.
1039. centex
7:18 AM GMT on August 29, 2009
Did we get a 06 GMT report on 94L?
Member Since: August 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3226
1038. Golladan
7:13 AM GMT on August 29, 2009
Quoting JLPR:
Also 94L looking ok... not great... but surviving

right now im thinking the center must be between the strongest area of convection west of 40W and the weaker convection east of 40W

Heh. It's trying to form a happy face like the ones Bill used to make.
Member Since: August 16, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 17
1037. centex
7:01 AM GMT on August 29, 2009
Realy looks 94L proving the models wrong, but we knew they don't do well until TD forms. It's not organizing quickly and going to move into carribean.
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1036. Cavin Rawlins
6:53 AM GMT on August 29, 2009
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
1035. Brillig
6:51 AM GMT on August 29, 2009
Looks like HH is not finding rotation in Danny anymore -- or the storm is moving horizontally faster than it's rotating.
Member Since: June 23, 2006 Posts: 20 Comments: 408
1034. JLPR
6:41 AM GMT on August 29, 2009
...
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 5223
1033. JLPR
6:40 AM GMT on August 29, 2009
Also 94L looking ok... not great... but surviving

right now im thinking the center must be between the strongest area of convection west of 40W and the weaker convection east of 40W

Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 5223
1032. popartpete
6:39 AM GMT on August 29, 2009
Quoting rareaire:
but it uses 1/2 ton of fuel per second!! Its no Preius!
I think it equates to a typical home swimming pool full of fuel every 25 seconds...way to go green NASA! The shuttle was designed in the late 60's, and uses some forty-plus year old technology. Still, that technology has brought us commercial gains...GPS one example, home computers another. (Shuttle's computers aren't as small as ours are today, but their needs led to the advances that bring us what we use today.)
Member Since: July 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 418
1031. JLPR
6:35 AM GMT on August 29, 2009
TW inland in Africa still looking healthy and its running out of land =\

Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 5223
1030. popartpete
6:30 AM GMT on August 29, 2009
Hey Blog buddies...sorry to have gone off on a space shuttle tangent, but it's my second passion after tropical weather, and I'm a reporter....very wordy!
Hope Danny and Erica stay out of my backyard!
Member Since: July 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 418
1029. Motttt
6:27 AM GMT on August 29, 2009
??
Member Since: September 10, 2001 Posts: 0 Comments: 213
1028. Zachrey
6:26 AM GMT on August 29, 2009
What was that ring of clouds or moisture expanding outward from 94L (01:30Z August 29, 2009)? Does that have any significance as far as tropical storm development is concerned?

http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_wv_hem_loop-12.html
Member Since: November 7, 2003 Posts: 0 Comments: 4
1027. Motttt
6:24 AM GMT on August 29, 2009
what's the point?
Member Since: September 10, 2001 Posts: 0 Comments: 213
1026. Racefan24
6:22 AM GMT on August 29, 2009
Thanks for the TX history and a walk down memior lane.
Member Since: July 24, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 34
1025. popartpete
6:20 AM GMT on August 29, 2009
Quoting flsky:


Ha! Thank goodness!
The engineers who built the Solid Rocket Boosters, and warned NASA not to launch in freezing temperatures, weren't surprised that an SRB failed and led to a loss of the vehicle...they were surprised it didn't happen on the launch pad! The rubber o-ring failed at the critical launch period, but its own burned material sealed the gap, and held back the hot gases temporarily, although they eventually escaped and burst the external fuel tank. There wasn't an explosion...liquid hydrogen and oxygen don't explode, they vaporize. Challenger's accident looked like a fireball, as the SRB exhaust colored the vapor orange for a split second, before the SRB's continued, unharmed really, and were subsequently destroyed by ground control. From what I read, during the Challenger accident, after the stack disintegrated, the damaged SRB showed evidence of a second breached seal, and a second hot gas leak.
Member Since: July 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 418
1024. homelesswanderer
6:09 AM GMT on August 29, 2009
Me too. Good Night All. :) Hope they're all fishes.
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 10 Comments: 3665
1023. homelesswanderer
6:07 AM GMT on August 29, 2009
Louisiana climatology and history link.

Link
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 10 Comments: 3665
1022. nolacane2009
6:06 AM GMT on August 29, 2009
Goodnight All. Have a good night see yall tomorrow.
Member Since: August 19, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 248
1020. Racefan24
6:04 AM GMT on August 29, 2009
Quoting iceman55:
Link



check this web site .


Thanks for the link
Member Since: July 24, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 34
1019. homelesswanderer
6:04 AM GMT on August 29, 2009
Texas Climatology and History link. Pretty interesting.

Link
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 10 Comments: 3665
1018. popartpete
6:03 AM GMT on August 29, 2009
Quoting rareaire:
you really have to admire anyone willing to sit on top of a bomb, light it and travel 4 miles per second in a vehicle built by the lowest bidder!!! ;]
NASA has had many close calls with the shuttle. The first launch ever, Columbia, lost many of the heat shield tiles...a frightening amount. Challenger lost an engine, and nearly another, which would have crashed it, a few missions before its demise. Another shuttle's landing gear blew a tire and almost totaled it during another pre-Challenger accident flight as well. Post-Challenger, in 1988, another shuttle's heat shield was so damaged, the crew doubted it would survive re-entry. The damage was bad, but not in a sensitive area like what doomed Columbia in '03. Endeavour in '06 was badly damaged on the heat shield, all the way down to the orbiter's aluminum skin, but again, not in a sensitive area. The last shuttle launch had bad heat shield damage. It's the biggest concern at the present time. The shuttle's amazing, but is very dangerous.
Member Since: July 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 418
1015. nolacane2009
6:02 AM GMT on August 29, 2009
new update coming out Iceman55
Member Since: August 19, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 248
1012. homelesswanderer
5:59 AM GMT on August 29, 2009
Quoting iceman55:
Link



check this web site .


Sigh. Wake me up when September ends. ;) Thanks for the link. :)
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 10 Comments: 3665

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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