Danny still weak

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 7:32 PM GMT on August 28, 2009

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Tropical Storm Danny continues to look unhealthy, with an exposed low-level center and the main heavy thunderstorms well to the east. The center is oval instead of circular, which may portend that this center will dissipate and a new center will form under the heaviest thunderstorm activity. Danny has more of the appearance of a subtropical storm than a tropical storm on satellite imagery, and this structure will slow down any potential intensification. The amount of heavy thunderstorm activity has increased in the past few hours, though no thunderstorms have formed near the center. The latest Hurricane Hunter mission found one small spot of 45 mph surface winds between 1 - 3 pm EDT today, so Danny may barely qualify as a tropical storm. Danny's center may have begun moving to the north over the past hour, giving confidence that the storm's strongest winds and rain will stay offshore of North Carolina tonight and Saturday morning.


Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image at 3:03 pm EDT of Danny, showing the exposed swirl of clouds where Danny's center is, well displaced from the heaviest thunderstorm activity to the east. The center is oval-shaped and not circular, the sign of a weak circulation.

The forecast for Danny
With wind shear at 15 knots this afternoon, and forecast to increase to 20 knots tonight and 30 knots Saturday morning, it is unlikely Danny will be able to strengthen to more than a 50 mph tropical storm. Dry air from the upper-level low that has been keeping Danny disorganized continues to be a problem for the storm, as well. Most of the intensity forecast models continue to insist Danny will strengthen, but they have been doing a very poor job forecasting the intensity of Danny. With Danny's heavy thunderstorms all on the east side of the storm, it is unlikely that North Carolina or New England will feel tropical storm force winds from Danny when it scoots past on Saturday. Large swells from Danny creating high surf along the beaches of New England will be the primary hazard from the storm.

Massachusetts hurricane history
Two tropical storms have affected Massachusetts in the past decade, though neither of these storms brought sustained winds of tropical storm force (39 mph) to the state. Tropical Storm Beryl of 2006 just missed Cape Cod as a weak tropical storm with 45 mph winds. Beryl brought wind gusts to tropical storm force to Nantucket Island, and a 1 foot storm surge. Tropical Storm Hermine hit southeast Massachusetts on August 31, 2004, as a minimum-strength tropical storm with 40 mph winds. No land stations in Massachusetts reported tropical storm force winds during Beryl. The last time Massachusetts measured tropical storm force winds was in 1997 during that year's version of Tropical Storm Danny. Chatham recorded sustained winds of 44 mph, and Nantucket had 43 mph winds. The last time Massachusetts had hurricane force winds was in 1991 during Hurricane Bob, which hit Rhode Island as a Category 2 hurricane. Provincetown, Massachusetts measured sustained winds of 98 mph, gusting to 115 mph, and Buzzard's Bay received a 15 foot storm surge.

Invest 94L
The well-organized tropical wave (94L) mid-way between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands continues to be a threat to develop into a tropical depression in the next day or two. Water vapor satellite loops show that 94L has moistened the region surrounding it considerably today, and the storm is not ingesting as much dry air as this morning. However, visible satellite loops show only a small amount of heavy thunderstorm activity near the circulation center, which is broad and elongated from east to west. Shear is low, about 10 knots, and is expected to remain low, 5 - 10 knots, over the next five days. The waters are warm enough to support development, 27°C, and are expected to remain in the 27 - 28°C range over the next five days. It appears that 94L needs another 1 - 3 days to develop a well-formed circulation and become a tropical depression, given the favorable environment. NHC is giving 94L a medium (30 - 50% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday. Most of the models predict 94L will Be affected by two troughs of low pressure over the next week, which will pull the storm far enough north so that it will miss the Lesser Antilles Islands. It is then probable that 94L will be forced to the west again as the high pressure ridge steering the storm builds back in. The possible long-term threat to the U.S. East Coast is impossible to evaluate at this time.

I'm in New York City this weekend for my cousin's wedding, so will not be blogging again until Monday morning. In my absence, wundergound's severe storms expert, Dr. Rob Carver, will be posting in my blog Saturday and Sunday.

Jeff Masters

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712. Relix
The slow lat could be an inhibitor as well. Coriolis effect? So many factors... I am tired and rambling now so nevermind me =P
Member Since: August 3, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2662
Quoting StormW:


Looking at the current model info on the MJO, there is still upward motion from about 30W to Africa, and a small area of weak downward motion near the Lesser Antilles. So for the most part, we are looking at slight upward to neutral conditions. The model forecast still calls for upward motion over the Atlantic Basin through the 1st week of Sept. I think the models are still having a hard time with a concrete initialization, and that may be what is affecting them.


Ah. Ok. Thank you very much. :)
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710. ackee
fast moveing system sometime have hard time developing that may be 94L down fall
Member Since: July 15, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1355
Quoting StormW:


???????


Dont mind them.
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Quoting tornadofan:
94L downgraded to Yellow at 2 AM, I'd say...


No,as long as the convective flare ups continue this should go ahead and develope.Its embedded in a very moist envelope.
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Quoting canesrule1:
20-30 mph


??

AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD AT AROUND 15 MPH.
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704. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
920
TCNA21 RJTD 290000
CCAA 29000 47644 KROVANH(0911) 14259 11479 13244 225// 93415=

0:00 AM UTC August 29 2009

TS Krovahn (Typhoon Number 0911) "System no. 14"
25.9N 147.9E
Dvorak Intensity: T2.5
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703. Relix
You know what would really keep 94L at bay... the fast speed its going right now. I am still sticking for it to develop as soon as tomorrow as a TD. TS by Monday (taking into consideration fast movement and dry air) and Hurricane status is up in the air.
Member Since: August 3, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2662
702. ackee
Quoting JamesSA:

?? It is a bathtub down there.
there a lot of dir air as well
Member Since: July 15, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1355
Quoting ackee:
IF 94L does make it into the carrb dont seem like it will survie

?? It is a bathtub down there.
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Quoting Tazmanian:
92L got name Danny??? that was the bigets move i have evere seen the nhc made in my life Danny dos not even look like a name storm it is sick has a bone why on earth did they name it for a TD would have benn better for this sick liite storm


But, it does make for a good nor'easter!
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am a bad boy for my speeling
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114779
Quoting Grothar:
Is 94L really at 45W already. How fast is it moving now, anyone know??
20-30 mph
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I personally don't think 94L is going to get pulled hard until it reaches close to the Islands, and at this rate that could be at a lot lower latitude.
Member Since: August 31, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 833
92L got name Danny??? that was the bigets move i have evere seen the nhc made in my life Danny dos not even look like a name storm it is sick has a bone why on earth did they name it for a TD would have benn better for this sick liite storm
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114779
Geez ppl. Blackout, anyone?

Seems a weird time for it, but not impossible....
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692. Relix
I am very sure 94L will be a TD tomorrow. That dry air won't be so hard on it, this won't be a repeat of Ana. And yeah, I am confident. If not I have a bag of crow there frozen I could put in the oven and eat =P
Member Since: August 3, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2662
Is 94L really at 45W already. How fast is it moving now, anyone know??
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689. ackee
IF 94L does make it into the carrb dont seem like it will survie
Member Since: July 15, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1355
Danny, 94L and a black hole over Georgia.
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Quoting kmanislander:


This has been the driest year in recorded history for these islands. Clear skies and extremely hot days, all reflected in those TCHP values for the NW Caribbean. Anything coming through this area would not have a lot of trouble becoming a major assuming even average conditions aloft.


Trust me people around the GOM are concerned about anything coming through your super warm waters too! 94L itself is not so worrisome, but I do not like its southern track.
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Quoting tornadofan:
94L downgraded to Yellow at 2 AM, I'd say...


nope sorry orange will remain the color of choice
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Quoting tornadofan:
94L downgraded to Yellow at 2 AM, I'd say...


Id say no.
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Quoting tornadofan:


Or is it Cliff?


Nah. Norm. He's the witty and lovable one. Lol. :)
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Anyway good night all

Back tomorrow
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Quoting tornadofan:


Norm!


Diane always said Norman.
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Quoting homelesswanderer:


Lol. Exactly! :)


Or is it Cliff?
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Quoting mobilegirl81:
Lot of dry air in the carribean?


Unfortunately yes, and continuing.

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Quoting hunkerdown:
In its current state, the BAMs aren't bad to follow, but for now stick with the BAMS or at most BAMM.
Ill take the BAMM
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img src="Photobucket" alt="" />
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677. IKE
Quoting canesrule1:
Danny still a TS for 11 with 40 MPH winds, trust me.


My point was, the Navy site is apparently having issues updating Danny and 94L. I wasn't saying they were RIP.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
94L downgraded to Yellow at 2 AM, I'd say...
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Quoting hunkerdown:
In its current state, the BAMs aren't bad to follow, but for now stick with the BAMS or at most BAMM.
ok
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Quoting tornadofan:


Norm!


Lol. Exactly! :)
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Quoting canesrule1:
ughhhh, how about the BAMD? lol
In its current state, the BAMs aren't bad to follow, but for now stick with the BAMS or at most BAMM.
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Lot of dry air in the carribean?
Member Since: August 31, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 833
671. IKE
Quoting tornadofan:


Maybe 2 RIP's?


Danny will be RIP by Sunday morning. 94L is questionable.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting hunkerdown:
:((
ughhhh, how about the BAMD? lol
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Quoting IKE:
Navy hasn't updated on Danny since 2215UTC, so it's more than just 94L.
Danny still a TS for 11 with 40 MPH winds, trust me.
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Quoting StormW:
Good evening!


Evening Storm. :) You mentioned the MJO the other day, how I think you said it would be moving out of the gulf/caribbean and then moving out of the Atlantic and so on. Forgive me if I got that wrong. But I was wondering when will it move out ( if I'm saying that right?) And also wondering if thats why the models aren't too keen on strengthening 94l as it moves west?
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667. IKE
Quoting canesrule1:
huh


Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting canesrule1:
00z model I'm using for tracking Danny is the NOGAPS model.
------------------------------------------------

00z model I'm using for tracking 94L is the SHIP model.
:((
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Quoting atmoaggie:
Appears to have been reinstated...



This has been the driest year in recorded history for these islands. Clear skies and extremely hot days, all reflected in those TCHP values for the NW Caribbean. Anything coming through this area would not have a lot of trouble becoming a major assuming even average conditions aloft.
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Danny, 94L, and an impressive wave around 0E:

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Quoting Relix:
The development is going nicely and it wouldn't surprise me if we saw a TD tomorrow going into the northern caribbean (Yes, into it). It's taking its time to develop and it should eventually step up a bit but not pulled out over the islands. It's my new point of view from analyzing the steering layers right now and having water vapor loops open through the whole day haha. I am still split 50/50 on into the caribbean or into the atlantic.
better go back and re-analyze 94L itself, not too organized at all. No way a TD by tomorrow. Has WAAAAAY too much organizing/consolidating to pull itself together. At least a couple of days away.
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Quoting IKE:
Navy hasn't updated on Danny since 2215UTC, so it's more than just 94L.


Maybe 2 RIP's?
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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