Danny still weak

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 7:32 PM GMT on August 28, 2009

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Tropical Storm Danny continues to look unhealthy, with an exposed low-level center and the main heavy thunderstorms well to the east. The center is oval instead of circular, which may portend that this center will dissipate and a new center will form under the heaviest thunderstorm activity. Danny has more of the appearance of a subtropical storm than a tropical storm on satellite imagery, and this structure will slow down any potential intensification. The amount of heavy thunderstorm activity has increased in the past few hours, though no thunderstorms have formed near the center. The latest Hurricane Hunter mission found one small spot of 45 mph surface winds between 1 - 3 pm EDT today, so Danny may barely qualify as a tropical storm. Danny's center may have begun moving to the north over the past hour, giving confidence that the storm's strongest winds and rain will stay offshore of North Carolina tonight and Saturday morning.


Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image at 3:03 pm EDT of Danny, showing the exposed swirl of clouds where Danny's center is, well displaced from the heaviest thunderstorm activity to the east. The center is oval-shaped and not circular, the sign of a weak circulation.

The forecast for Danny
With wind shear at 15 knots this afternoon, and forecast to increase to 20 knots tonight and 30 knots Saturday morning, it is unlikely Danny will be able to strengthen to more than a 50 mph tropical storm. Dry air from the upper-level low that has been keeping Danny disorganized continues to be a problem for the storm, as well. Most of the intensity forecast models continue to insist Danny will strengthen, but they have been doing a very poor job forecasting the intensity of Danny. With Danny's heavy thunderstorms all on the east side of the storm, it is unlikely that North Carolina or New England will feel tropical storm force winds from Danny when it scoots past on Saturday. Large swells from Danny creating high surf along the beaches of New England will be the primary hazard from the storm.

Massachusetts hurricane history
Two tropical storms have affected Massachusetts in the past decade, though neither of these storms brought sustained winds of tropical storm force (39 mph) to the state. Tropical Storm Beryl of 2006 just missed Cape Cod as a weak tropical storm with 45 mph winds. Beryl brought wind gusts to tropical storm force to Nantucket Island, and a 1 foot storm surge. Tropical Storm Hermine hit southeast Massachusetts on August 31, 2004, as a minimum-strength tropical storm with 40 mph winds. No land stations in Massachusetts reported tropical storm force winds during Beryl. The last time Massachusetts measured tropical storm force winds was in 1997 during that year's version of Tropical Storm Danny. Chatham recorded sustained winds of 44 mph, and Nantucket had 43 mph winds. The last time Massachusetts had hurricane force winds was in 1991 during Hurricane Bob, which hit Rhode Island as a Category 2 hurricane. Provincetown, Massachusetts measured sustained winds of 98 mph, gusting to 115 mph, and Buzzard's Bay received a 15 foot storm surge.

Invest 94L
The well-organized tropical wave (94L) mid-way between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands continues to be a threat to develop into a tropical depression in the next day or two. Water vapor satellite loops show that 94L has moistened the region surrounding it considerably today, and the storm is not ingesting as much dry air as this morning. However, visible satellite loops show only a small amount of heavy thunderstorm activity near the circulation center, which is broad and elongated from east to west. Shear is low, about 10 knots, and is expected to remain low, 5 - 10 knots, over the next five days. The waters are warm enough to support development, 27°C, and are expected to remain in the 27 - 28°C range over the next five days. It appears that 94L needs another 1 - 3 days to develop a well-formed circulation and become a tropical depression, given the favorable environment. NHC is giving 94L a medium (30 - 50% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday. Most of the models predict 94L will Be affected by two troughs of low pressure over the next week, which will pull the storm far enough north so that it will miss the Lesser Antilles Islands. It is then probable that 94L will be forced to the west again as the high pressure ridge steering the storm builds back in. The possible long-term threat to the U.S. East Coast is impossible to evaluate at this time.

I'm in New York City this weekend for my cousin's wedding, so will not be blogging again until Monday morning. In my absence, wundergound's severe storms expert, Dr. Rob Carver, will be posting in my blog Saturday and Sunday.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting StormW:


The porblem with the Caribbean right now is...it's very dry.

Storm that doesnt seem to be a problem to me :) Keep it nice and dry for us please.
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94L is expanding in size. This could be one of those storms that creates it own environment and if it travels just north of the Leeward, PR and DR, we will have a potentially major Hurricane to deal with if high pressure ridging builds west.
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Quoting hurricane23:
There are lots of good schools. One thing to consider when you pick a school is to look and see whether their emphasis is what you're interested in. That's especially true if you're thinking of grad school. In he current environment, meteorology is pretty competative so if you want a forecasting job, especially with the nws, you almost need a masters degree to get in the door.

True. If you want to make more than $30K sometime in your first 10 years, you need something more than all of the others applying for the better jobs. And if you want to be on TV, well, enjoy the 4AM morning broadcast prep to tell everyone it is going to be warm, humid, and with a slight chance of rain in LA in the summer. And plan on doing that for at least a decade.
I couldn't do that everyday. I would rather dig ditches.
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There is an area of disturbed weather ready to come off the African Coast. Have any of you seen something this huge come off the coast of Africa before? It looks like it allready covers the entire state of Florida.
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Yea A&M is out there as well. That one isnt too bad. There are about 10 others worth going to as well not mentioned above.
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One Hour Until Launch
Fri, 28 Aug 2009 10:59:27 PM EDT


One hour remains until the scheduled liftoff of space shuttle Discovery at 11:59 p.m. Weather is cooperating and the launch team is not working on any technical problems.

About 38 minutes to go. Viewing could be better.
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Quoting hurricane23:
There are lots of good schools. One thing to consider when you pick a school is to look and see whether their emphasis is what you're interested in. That's especially true if you're thinking of grad school. In he current environment, meteorology is pretty competative so if you want a forecasting job, especially with the nws, you almost need a masters degree to get in the door.

Yes and no again haha. I know about 4 people working for NWS now and none of them have Masters degrees but they did have 4 years of experience before they got hired in. For NWS it is all about experience and having a math based met degree.
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Quoting HaboobsRsweet:

Yea my bad...that is a good one too. I know about 8 or 9 people that graduated from there


I'm currently a sophomore there.
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Quoting HurricaneKing:


Cough NC State cough (my school)

We had a prof that came to A&M from NC State. Larry Carey. (Not making up the name, seriously.) Good guy.

Ahem. Ahhheeeemmmm. Hello? He left out A&M, too?
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There are lots of good schools. One thing to consider when you pick a school is to look and see whether their emphasis is what you're interested in. That's especially true if you're thinking of grad school. In he current environment, meteorology is pretty competative so if you want a forecasting job, especially with the nws, you almost need a masters degree to get in the door.
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Quoting HurricaneKing:


Cough NC State cough (my school)

Yea my bad...that is a good one too. I know about 8 or 9 people that graduated from there
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Adrian,
I got a job offer at RSMAS coming out of A&M. The pay wouldn't let me live within an hours drive of Virginia Key. I didn't take that offer. (thankfully had more than one offer)
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Quoting HaboobsRsweet:


Yes and no...just because a school is in the northeast doesnt mean you dont study tornados or hurricanes. One of my main professors at Penn State did nothing but major tornado research and that is what we focused on in many classes. Shoot I had Lake Effect snow all winter but never really studied it in school.

Best schools IMO, Penn State, Oklahoma, Flordia State, Colorado St. Wisconsin, Miss St (for a no math degree). Just heard Virginia tech is starting a program.


Cough NC State cough (my school)
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That is what I am thinking. I dont see 94L going into the Gulf. It looks like an out to sea storm to me but if it hits the east coast I would look for a small hit in NC. Too early to tell but that is what I would lean towards today.
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Quoting hurricane23:
Picking a school all depends on what you want to get out of it, and what kind of degree you want. If you want to do mainly TV, then a broadcast meteorology degree will do. If you want to work for NWS, then you will need a degree in which you took all the maths, physics, and meteorology courses required, and most private companies require the same thing I think. The second thing is what you want to get outside of the classroom, i.e. research, viewing the weather on your own time, etc. For instance, if you are into chasing storms, then you would need to be at a school in/near the plains. If you like blizzard type weather, you would need to stay in the northeast. If you like tropical storms, then live near the coast. Pretty much you'll get the same degree at any school you go to, some places may have better teachers, but alot of what you learn weather wise isn't in the classroom...at least it wasn't for me. It was talking with other students, reading forecast discussions, doing our own forecasts when chasing, and so on.

Overall i think a big part of majoring in Meteorology is picking a school where there's some weather you like - since it's a major part of most of our lives. If you love snow and hate the heat and humidity, you'll think twice about spending 4 years in Oklahoma or Florida.I currently just transfered from fsu to Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Sciences in southeast florida.


Yes and no...just because a school is in the northeast doesnt mean you dont study tornados or hurricanes. One of my main professors at Penn State did nothing but major tornado research and that is what we focused on in many classes. Shoot I had Lake Effect snow all winter but never really studied it in school.

Best schools IMO, Penn State, Oklahoma, Flordia State, Colorado St. Wisconsin, Miss St (for a no math degree). Just heard Virginia tech is starting a program.
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Quoting HaboobsRsweet:
Any thoughts on the timing of the front pushing across the US and the upper low that is just over the Gulf States having an impact on a potential path for 94L?

Wow, they have pretty deep isolated cells north of you.

About the timing of it all. I cannot say if this isn't going to be Bill-part deux. Some seasons, it seems that once a pattern sets up during the peak of the season, it doesn't change for a month.

I am not saying that 94 couldn't be something to watch...for everyone...but I will not be at all surprised if it skims along the east coast...possibly even not all that close to the east coast.
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Sorry, but Danny is still most interesting to me.

Center is not where thought, imo. Or, if you prefer, new entity.

HH are going out there at 2am EDT, so we will see, but new center (storm) forming at rought 29N/73W, imo. Could be W of there, but way S of where it is pegged atm.

Models are great, but when NHC is off of their next point drastically (as they have been for 24 hours), it's an anomaly I do not ignore. i.e., they have no clue what is going on. Doing their best, based on empirical data, but sometimes, that's just not enough.

Just as I have said when they are spot on, only indicative of 12hr forecast at most. When they miss, especially badly, it is clear the models don't have a handle on the situation.

We'll find out when HH goes in at 2am.

QS pass at 8pm EDT hints at what I am suggesting.

Link
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Quoting thelmores:




All I can say is wowsa!!!!

Have we ever named one over land? LOL



i think i remember this conversation earlier today...and i think the answer is NO lol
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Quoting StormW:
Here ya go...put THIS in motion...look on the continent.

EUMETSAT




All I can say is wowsa!!!!

Have we ever named one over land? LOL

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Picking a school all depends on what you want to get out of it, and what kind of degree you want. If you want to do mainly TV, then a broadcast meteorology degree will do. If you want to work for NWS, then you will need a degree in which you took all the maths, physics, and meteorology courses required, and most private companies require the same thing I think. The second thing is what you want to get outside of the classroom, i.e. research, viewing the weather on your own time, etc. For instance, if you are into chasing storms, then you would need to be at a school in/near the plains. If you like blizzard type weather, you would need to stay in the northeast. If you like tropical storms, then live near the coast. Pretty much you'll get the same degree at any school you go to, some places may have better teachers, but alot of what you learn weather wise isn't in the classroom...at least it wasn't for me. It was talking with other students, reading forecast discussions, doing our own forecasts when chasing, and so on.

Overall i think a big part of majoring in Meteorology is picking a school where there's some weather you like - since it's a major part of most of our lives. If you love snow and hate the heat and humidity, you'll think twice about spending 4 years in Oklahoma or Florida.I currently just transfered from fsu to Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Sciences in southeast florida.
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Quoting HaboobsRsweet:

Penn State

Another good met school.
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NASA TV just reported all weather constraints are green.

Prefered launch time 11:59:37 PM EDT (035937 GMT)
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Quoting TampaSpin:


Too early to say but, it sure looks like an island threat is coming and the first threat into the Caribbean will be coming...


Thank you TampaSpin :)
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Any thoughts on the timing of the front pushing across the US and the upper low that is just over the Gulf States having an impact on a potential path for 94L?
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Quoting StormW:
IF the current shear forecast is correct..the next 24-30 hours will tell us about 94L.


StormW if it stays weak. It goes South into the Caribbean.....Could be trouble IMO
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784. Relix
Quoting TriniGirl26:


So can i keep my prediction that it going to pass between Antigua and Barbados? Or should i shoot for a little lower down the island chain?


I would say over them =)
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783. bwi
94l center is near 10n38w?
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Quoting atmoaggie:

Where did you go to school?

Penn State
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I believe 94L is too weak and has too low of a latitude to be as affected by the troughs as the models think. Don't know what its strength will be but I think the Leeward islands will be directly affected by it.
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thank you Storm, Atmoaggie.
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Just noting in the plot in post 769 that XTRP is showing us how very slow it is moving. A slow tropical system is sometimes a turning tropical system. Maybe the models that want to drag it to the N right away have something. That would be nice.
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BAMD BAMM BAMS
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Looks to me like Danny has once again relocated its COC underneath the heaviest convection to the SE of the last forecast point.....

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Anyhoo,

G'nite all.

Unfortunately will have to work tomorrow, so will not be around much before the evening.

I'd really like to see what 94L does in the next 24....
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Port....thanks. Maybe it'll be clear of clouds to my north so we can see it take off. Love those night time take offs.
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761. Taz

I think u were talking abt the possibility of this the other night. Interesting possibility of EPac and ATL landfalling hurricanes within a short period of time. Suggests we're getting into the heart of the season, in a way.
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Quoting HaboobsRsweet:
just keep all the storms to the east coast this year so they all have a chance to go out to sea.

Where did you go to school?
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Quoting Bigguy675:
Is the space shuttle going up tonight? If so, what time?
1 hr.
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Quoting nishinigami:
Hi Storm,

I have seen a few people mention here tonight that there have been no model runs on 94L since this morning. Some have said it is because they are going to drop it. What is your opinion on why there have been no updates?

Not all of the models have stopped. These are current as of 7 pm CDT tonight. Does appear that GFDL and HWRF are not being run on 94 right now. Not sure why. Not important, really. Without a developed system they wouldn't have anything useful to show us.



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Quoting TriniGirl26:


So can i keep my prediction that it going to pass between Antigua and Barbados? Or should i shoot for a little lower down the island chain?


Too early to say but, it sure looks like an island threat is coming and the first threat into the Caribbean will be coming...
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Doesnt look like 94L is going anywhere anytime soon. I sitll think based on the setup will will make that sharp north turn like Bill and Danny. East Coast will have to keep an eye on it.
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Is the space shuttle going up tonight? If so, what time?
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NASA weather officer, Kathy Winters, reports weather is 80% favorable for launch at this time.
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Quoting TampaSpin:
I think our luck is running out as 94L will likely be the first real threat of the year.


So can i keep my prediction that it going to pass between Antigua and Barbados? Or should i shoot for a little lower down the island chain?
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I think our luck is running out as 94L will likely be the first real threat of the year.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.