Danny still weak

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 7:32 PM GMT on August 28, 2009

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Tropical Storm Danny continues to look unhealthy, with an exposed low-level center and the main heavy thunderstorms well to the east. The center is oval instead of circular, which may portend that this center will dissipate and a new center will form under the heaviest thunderstorm activity. Danny has more of the appearance of a subtropical storm than a tropical storm on satellite imagery, and this structure will slow down any potential intensification. The amount of heavy thunderstorm activity has increased in the past few hours, though no thunderstorms have formed near the center. The latest Hurricane Hunter mission found one small spot of 45 mph surface winds between 1 - 3 pm EDT today, so Danny may barely qualify as a tropical storm. Danny's center may have begun moving to the north over the past hour, giving confidence that the storm's strongest winds and rain will stay offshore of North Carolina tonight and Saturday morning.


Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image at 3:03 pm EDT of Danny, showing the exposed swirl of clouds where Danny's center is, well displaced from the heaviest thunderstorm activity to the east. The center is oval-shaped and not circular, the sign of a weak circulation.

The forecast for Danny
With wind shear at 15 knots this afternoon, and forecast to increase to 20 knots tonight and 30 knots Saturday morning, it is unlikely Danny will be able to strengthen to more than a 50 mph tropical storm. Dry air from the upper-level low that has been keeping Danny disorganized continues to be a problem for the storm, as well. Most of the intensity forecast models continue to insist Danny will strengthen, but they have been doing a very poor job forecasting the intensity of Danny. With Danny's heavy thunderstorms all on the east side of the storm, it is unlikely that North Carolina or New England will feel tropical storm force winds from Danny when it scoots past on Saturday. Large swells from Danny creating high surf along the beaches of New England will be the primary hazard from the storm.

Massachusetts hurricane history
Two tropical storms have affected Massachusetts in the past decade, though neither of these storms brought sustained winds of tropical storm force (39 mph) to the state. Tropical Storm Beryl of 2006 just missed Cape Cod as a weak tropical storm with 45 mph winds. Beryl brought wind gusts to tropical storm force to Nantucket Island, and a 1 foot storm surge. Tropical Storm Hermine hit southeast Massachusetts on August 31, 2004, as a minimum-strength tropical storm with 40 mph winds. No land stations in Massachusetts reported tropical storm force winds during Beryl. The last time Massachusetts measured tropical storm force winds was in 1997 during that year's version of Tropical Storm Danny. Chatham recorded sustained winds of 44 mph, and Nantucket had 43 mph winds. The last time Massachusetts had hurricane force winds was in 1991 during Hurricane Bob, which hit Rhode Island as a Category 2 hurricane. Provincetown, Massachusetts measured sustained winds of 98 mph, gusting to 115 mph, and Buzzard's Bay received a 15 foot storm surge.

Invest 94L
The well-organized tropical wave (94L) mid-way between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands continues to be a threat to develop into a tropical depression in the next day or two. Water vapor satellite loops show that 94L has moistened the region surrounding it considerably today, and the storm is not ingesting as much dry air as this morning. However, visible satellite loops show only a small amount of heavy thunderstorm activity near the circulation center, which is broad and elongated from east to west. Shear is low, about 10 knots, and is expected to remain low, 5 - 10 knots, over the next five days. The waters are warm enough to support development, 27°C, and are expected to remain in the 27 - 28°C range over the next five days. It appears that 94L needs another 1 - 3 days to develop a well-formed circulation and become a tropical depression, given the favorable environment. NHC is giving 94L a medium (30 - 50% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday. Most of the models predict 94L will Be affected by two troughs of low pressure over the next week, which will pull the storm far enough north so that it will miss the Lesser Antilles Islands. It is then probable that 94L will be forced to the west again as the high pressure ridge steering the storm builds back in. The possible long-term threat to the U.S. East Coast is impossible to evaluate at this time.

I'm in New York City this weekend for my cousin's wedding, so will not be blogging again until Monday morning. In my absence, wundergound's severe storms expert, Dr. Rob Carver, will be posting in my blog Saturday and Sunday.

Jeff Masters

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861. flsky
Quoting Patrap:
Quoting LightningCharmer:
T minus 9 minutes and counting


Less than 5 mins now. I'll go out on the balcony and take a look soon!
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T minus 9 minutes and counting
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Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128320
858. flsky
Quoting XL:


Never seen a shuttle launch. Hubby wants to go to Florida to see one.


Better hurry - there aren't too many left!
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Well if ya want to see in Click this link!Link
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Link
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Evening everyone! Waiting for the "GO" on the shuttle. 80% tonight, let's hope! I know I've mentioned this before, but the wave over Africa still fascinates me as being one of the best looking waves I've seen in some time now while still traversing land. Take a look, given good conditions, this could certainly be a player almost instantly. Very good organization and VERY persistent convection. Take a look:

wave over Africa
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854. bwat
Quoting bwat:
Hey yall, just got back from my good friends wedding and it looks like Danny took a farther track away from us on the OBX! I have a softball tournement to play tomorrow and it looks like to me we will get it in between showers.
Forgive my Budweiser induced spelling, I meant tournament. Alright, I'm gone yall!!
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Is the ULL pulling the LLC of Danny north and leaving the MLC behind to possibly develop?

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852. XL
Quoting popartpete:
I've seen Discovery & Atlantis launch from the press area of Kennedy, and another, possibly Endeavour, years earlier, during a similar night launch from Central Florida when I was a senior in college in the mid-1990's. In fact, my college friends in that area are watching right now from their jacuzzi!!!


Never seen a shuttle launch. Hubby wants to go to Florida to see one.
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851. bwat
Hey yall, just got back from my good friends wedding and it looks like Danny took a farther track away from us on the OBX! I have a softball tournement to play tomorrow and it looks like to me we will get it in between showers.
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Quoting AussieStorm:

27mins till lift-off
Quoting SCwxwatch:
Looks like Space Shuttle Discovery may get off the ground tonight.

Nasa TV
I've seen Discovery & Atlantis launch from the press area of Kennedy, and another, possibly Endeavour, years earlier, during a similar night launch from Central Florida when I was a senior in college in the mid-1990's. In fact, my college friends in that area are watching right now from their jacuzzi!!!
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Weathermandan:
I think what's going to happen is the outer convection that broke away from Danny is going to inhibit the ability for 94L to form into a major hurricane and will cause sheer to feed into it.
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Live shot of Discovery awaiting Liftoff


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128320
Roughly 18 minutes till launch.

NASA TV

Launch weather 100% go at this time.
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we may see 95L right a way
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115121
The model runs on 94L are changing every 6hrs
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Quoting hurricane23:
Danny's wondow for any significant intensification is all but closed now.This was one ugly tc.

Yes it is. And yes he was.
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Quoting StormW:
Center east of 40W.

Looks like it could slowly be taking shape.

94L CIRA RAMMB
Just in time for Labor Day Weekend?
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Quoting StormW:
Center east of 40W.

Looks like it could slowly be taking shape.

94L CIRA RAMMB

Good Afternoon StormW, How did your son's cake turn out?
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Out of these, I have to say CHIPS and UKMET are the only ones I see as having Danny figured. A short window for modest development...make that slight. I am having trouble coming up with a way Danny generates 50 or 60 knots in the next day.
HWRF surprisingly well-behaved on this run.

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Yeah, that's the one Im refering to. Honestly Ive never seen anything that huge come off the African coast before. If that holds together, "WOW"
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Quoting StormW:
Center east of 40W.

Looks like it could slowly be taking shape.

94L CIRA RAMMB


Yep. Looks like.
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Random Synopsis and Question(s):

Is it possible that a separate storm (coughErikacough) could be trying to form from some of that convection that broke away to Danny's southeast? I still feel like I see some rotation, perhaps in the mid-levels, because I don't see anything on this evening's QUICKSKAT pass that would suggest a surface circulation other than Danny's..

Danny himself appears to be moving almost due north along 75W, with convection/bands forming to the north probably aided by upper-level diffluence associated with the approaching trough. Although the wind will most likely stay offshore, the convective bands and heavy rainfall were certainly be a story in itself all up and down the coast. And despite Danny's small size, unfortunately there have already been a few reports of drownings because of rip currents. =/ I guess people thought because it wasn't as big as Bill it was safe. NOT THE CASE! Stay safe and out of the water this weekend please....

As for 94L...it's hauling west...like DUE west right along 10N haha the longer it remains just a wave/shallow low, the more west it'll go. The quicker it develops, the more it'll have a tendency to curve to the right (north). If it doesn't develop into a tropical storm by the end of the weekend, it will probably miss the weakness in the ridge and continue WNW (probably near the Leeward Islands). If it doesn't develop until mid-week, it'll go into the Caribbean (where it would likely get torn apart by the same upper-level low that plagued Danny).
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Danny's wondow for any significant intensification is all but closed now.This was one ugly tc.
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Quoting kuppenskup:
Im not talking about 94L, there is a area of disturbed weather which will be coming off the African Coast by Sunday. It's huge, did you see it?


i think it looks impressive now...but i also think it going to boil down like Bhagi(Spinach)
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One bad AS.....s storm moving toward the West coast of Africa....WOW!

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Quoting kuppenskup:
Im not talking about 94L, there is a area of disturbed weather which will be coming off the African Coast by Sunday. It's huge, did you see it?

Yes I see that as well...no model is picking it up from what I can see at the moment. It looks like it just fizzles out once it moves off shore. That one is still has a few days before it gets my attention.
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I agree that this will not be a Caribbean Storm. Anywhere from the Keys to North Carolina is my bet.
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Quoting TampaSpin:
All systems are go so far for lift-off....
yep
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Quoting HaboobsRsweet:
Not sure what is making you all think 94L has a shot to make it to the Gulf. i see a giant upper level Low and a front moving across CONUS right now that will help steer it north and up the east coast. The Gulf appears closed for business to me.

Like I said, the pattern...wash, rinse, repeat.

So if Gulf stays closed for the rest of the season, you think Claudette stirred it enough to keep the salt from settling out? (j/k...before someone asks if I am serious)
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Im not talking about 94L, there is a area of disturbed weather which will be coming off the African Coast by Sunday. It's huge, did you see it?
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Quoting SCwxwatch:
Looks like Space Shuttle Discovery may get off the ground tonight.

Nasa TV

27mins till lift-off
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Looks like Space Shuttle Discovery may get off the ground tonight.

Nasa TV
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Looks like Danny has run out of time to do any additional building.
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Not sure what is making you all think 94L has a shot to make it to the Gulf. i see a giant upper level Low and a front moving across CONUS right now that will help steer it north and up the east coast. The Gulf appears closed for business to me.
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All systems are go so far for lift-off....
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Quoting HaboobsRsweet:

Join the military and you will make more than that within your first 2 years.
If it moves, salute it. If it doesn't move, pick it up. If you can't pick it up, paint it white!
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Quoting SouthFLNative:
94L is expanding in size. This could be one of those storms that creates it own environment and if it travels just north of the Leeward, PR and DR, we will have a potentially major Hurricane to deal with if high pressure ridging builds west.


LOL you read my mind or i read yours......LOL
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Quoting HaboobsRsweet:

Join the military and you will make more than that within your first 2 years.

If they would have let me...vision issue.
I did well. I hear not-so-good stories though and I see the pay that is posted in the job boards from time to time.
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Quoting StormW:


The porblem with the Caribbean right now is...it's very dry.


True, but by then 94L could be pushing its own environment. As it is doing fairly well in the dry right now...It could be big enough by then that it won't make that big of difference.....I know dry is important in the beginning tho.
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Quoting HaboobsRsweet:

Storm that doesnt seem to be a problem to me :) Keep it nice and dry for us please.

Dry Caribbean, MJO spike that never happened, a number of cold front GoM force-fields (without any cut-offs), whatever everyone is doing...keep doing it.
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Quoting atmoaggie:

True. If you want to make more than $30K sometime in your first 10 years, you need something more than all of the others applying for the better jobs. And if you want to be on TV, well, enjoy the 4AM morning broadcast prep to tell everyone it is going to be warm, humid, and with a slight chance of rain in LA in the summer. And plan on doing that for at least a decade.
I couldn't do that everyday. I would rather dig ditches.

Join the military and you will make more than that within your first 2 years.
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Quoting StormW:


The porblem with the Caribbean right now is...it's very dry.


i can agree with u 150% Its HOT! and i mean blazing HOTT!!! I haven't seen rain in 2-3 days except for a brief shower earlier this evening.
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Quoting StormW:


The porblem with the Caribbean right now is...it's very dry.

Storm that doesnt seem to be a problem to me :) Keep it nice and dry for us please.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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