Danny still weak

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 7:32 PM GMT on August 28, 2009

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Tropical Storm Danny continues to look unhealthy, with an exposed low-level center and the main heavy thunderstorms well to the east. The center is oval instead of circular, which may portend that this center will dissipate and a new center will form under the heaviest thunderstorm activity. Danny has more of the appearance of a subtropical storm than a tropical storm on satellite imagery, and this structure will slow down any potential intensification. The amount of heavy thunderstorm activity has increased in the past few hours, though no thunderstorms have formed near the center. The latest Hurricane Hunter mission found one small spot of 45 mph surface winds between 1 - 3 pm EDT today, so Danny may barely qualify as a tropical storm. Danny's center may have begun moving to the north over the past hour, giving confidence that the storm's strongest winds and rain will stay offshore of North Carolina tonight and Saturday morning.


Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image at 3:03 pm EDT of Danny, showing the exposed swirl of clouds where Danny's center is, well displaced from the heaviest thunderstorm activity to the east. The center is oval-shaped and not circular, the sign of a weak circulation.

The forecast for Danny
With wind shear at 15 knots this afternoon, and forecast to increase to 20 knots tonight and 30 knots Saturday morning, it is unlikely Danny will be able to strengthen to more than a 50 mph tropical storm. Dry air from the upper-level low that has been keeping Danny disorganized continues to be a problem for the storm, as well. Most of the intensity forecast models continue to insist Danny will strengthen, but they have been doing a very poor job forecasting the intensity of Danny. With Danny's heavy thunderstorms all on the east side of the storm, it is unlikely that North Carolina or New England will feel tropical storm force winds from Danny when it scoots past on Saturday. Large swells from Danny creating high surf along the beaches of New England will be the primary hazard from the storm.

Massachusetts hurricane history
Two tropical storms have affected Massachusetts in the past decade, though neither of these storms brought sustained winds of tropical storm force (39 mph) to the state. Tropical Storm Beryl of 2006 just missed Cape Cod as a weak tropical storm with 45 mph winds. Beryl brought wind gusts to tropical storm force to Nantucket Island, and a 1 foot storm surge. Tropical Storm Hermine hit southeast Massachusetts on August 31, 2004, as a minimum-strength tropical storm with 40 mph winds. No land stations in Massachusetts reported tropical storm force winds during Beryl. The last time Massachusetts measured tropical storm force winds was in 1997 during that year's version of Tropical Storm Danny. Chatham recorded sustained winds of 44 mph, and Nantucket had 43 mph winds. The last time Massachusetts had hurricane force winds was in 1991 during Hurricane Bob, which hit Rhode Island as a Category 2 hurricane. Provincetown, Massachusetts measured sustained winds of 98 mph, gusting to 115 mph, and Buzzard's Bay received a 15 foot storm surge.

Invest 94L
The well-organized tropical wave (94L) mid-way between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands continues to be a threat to develop into a tropical depression in the next day or two. Water vapor satellite loops show that 94L has moistened the region surrounding it considerably today, and the storm is not ingesting as much dry air as this morning. However, visible satellite loops show only a small amount of heavy thunderstorm activity near the circulation center, which is broad and elongated from east to west. Shear is low, about 10 knots, and is expected to remain low, 5 - 10 knots, over the next five days. The waters are warm enough to support development, 27°C, and are expected to remain in the 27 - 28°C range over the next five days. It appears that 94L needs another 1 - 3 days to develop a well-formed circulation and become a tropical depression, given the favorable environment. NHC is giving 94L a medium (30 - 50% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday. Most of the models predict 94L will Be affected by two troughs of low pressure over the next week, which will pull the storm far enough north so that it will miss the Lesser Antilles Islands. It is then probable that 94L will be forced to the west again as the high pressure ridge steering the storm builds back in. The possible long-term threat to the U.S. East Coast is impossible to evaluate at this time.

I'm in New York City this weekend for my cousin's wedding, so will not be blogging again until Monday morning. In my absence, wundergound's severe storms expert, Dr. Rob Carver, will be posting in my blog Saturday and Sunday.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting rareaire:
Reasoning?


Rare where is your pinpoint accurate forecast for 94L be at my friend.......LOL
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i personally think 94L is the wave to watch, and the next wave is just going to die... and even if it doesn't it seems already on a suicidal trajectory
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910. flsky
Quoting animalrsq:
That was a beautiful launch from way over here north of Tampa!


It's amazing you could see it from that far away!
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Quoting tc1120:
for some reason I don't think 94L is going to develop into much. I think it will flare up for a bit but eventually shift north. I think the next wave coming off Africa is the one we need to watch.
Reasoning?
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That was a beautiful launch from way over here north of Tampa!
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Quoting barryweather:


I can open the link but some of the pages don't work.



ok thanks all for testing that page out i this wanted too make sure that i was not the olny one geting that was haveing a hard time geting on the site



thank you all
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906. flsky
Quoting geepy86:
I'm only a few miles from the pad and it was awesome. Could even see some lighting from the storm over the ocean.


I saw some flashes. I thought it was from camera flashes.
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I'm only a few miles from the pad and it was awesome. Could even see some lighting from the storm over the ocean.
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Quoting StormW:
That was awesome! Watched the boosters separate through my binoculars.
Yes that was great I had a good view from way up here in n. Fla. Awesome!!!!! i can only imagine what it is like to see it up close.....
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Quoting Tazmanian:
hey can any one get on this blog???

Link



i this want to make sure its not this me thats haveing a hard time geting on


I can open the link but some of the pages don't work.
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Quoting StormW:
That was awesome! Watched the boosters separate through my binoculars.


Evening Storm! How do you like the looks of the wave over west Africa?
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AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
Quoting Tazmanian:
hey can any one get on this blog???

Link



i this want to make sure its not this me thats haveing a hard time geting on


It works fine
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
hey can any one get on this blog???

Link



i this want to make sure its not this me thats haveing a hard time geting on
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897. BtnTx
Great shuttle launch & coverage. Its gonna be a few years before we launch anything after the shuttle retires. Bummer
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Quoting GatorWX:


What do you think about the wave over west Africa Tampa??


If that thing holds together that well....an Invest will be very fast to come. Hard to say what the shear would be yet...
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Quoting tc1120:
for some reason I don't think 94L is going to develop into much. I think it will flare up for a bit but eventually shift north. I think the next wave coming off Africa is the one we need to watch.


I agree with the next wave certainly being something to watch almost immediately, but I also wouldn't write off 94l yet, has plenty of time and isn't really looking that bad.
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Awesome launch. Love seeing it from my back yard.
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NOTE: This is not a real product. I'm just doing this for fun and to make a Western Pacific public advisory easy to understand by using the NHC's format.

UNOFFICIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
MAGICCHAOS' WESTERN PACIFIC PUBLIC ADVISORY
TROPICAL STORM KROVANH (12W) ADVISORY NUMBER 5
1100 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2009

...KROVANH MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH...

INTERESTS IN SOUTHEASTERN JAPAN SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KROVANH.

AT 800 PM EDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KROVANH WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.0 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 147.6 DEGREES
EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 340 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CHICHIJIMA,JAPAN AND 820 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF TOKYO,JAPAN.

KROVANH IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 15 MPH...24 KM/HR. A SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST IS FORECAST WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. THE CENTER OF KROVANH IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE NEAR THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF JAPAN BY SUNDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GRADUAL
STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS AND KROVANH IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME A TYPHOON BY SUNDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 65 MILES...105 KM FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB...29.42 INCHES.

...SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...26.0N 147.6E...800 PM
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 15 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB

THIS IS NOT AN OFFICAL PRODUCT. LOCATION, WINDS, MOVEMENT, AND FORECAST ARE FROM THE
JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER. PRESSURE WAS FROM THE JAPAN METEOROLOGY AGENCY
18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS. THIS WAS NOT INTENDED TO BE OFFICAL AND SHOULD NOT BE TREATED AS SUCH.
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Quoting Patrap:


The 30th of Aug is Discovery's 25th anniversary..the First Shuttle Flight was Columbia in April 81,..28 years ago.
Thanks, I heard it wrong on NASA TV. I'll correct my earlier post.
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890. bwat
Alright yall, gone for real this time. Just want to thank everyone in the blog for helping this newb understand a little more about tropical systems. That thanks is to StormW in particular who helped me with a lot even though I was a newb and thats very cool of him. Later Yall! Be back in the AM to check on 94L!
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Quoting XL:


Have to be honest and say it's the first one I have watched and will probably be the last. It's very impressive and I admire all those involved though.


Probably be the last....WHATEVER.....certainly not for me.
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Quoting TampaSpin:
WHAT a view that was.......WOW!


What do you think about the wave over west Africa Tampa??
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Quoting LightningCharmer:
Almost the 25th anniversary of the Shuttle program. This very well might have been the last night launch.


The 30th of Aug is Discovery's 25th anniversary..the First Shuttle Flight was Columbia in April 81,..28 years ago.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128630
for some reason I don't think 94L is going to develop into much. I think it will flare up for a bit but eventually shift north. I think the next wave coming off Africa is the one we need to watch.
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WHAT a view that was.......WOW!
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Almost the 25th anniversary of the shuttle, Discovery. This very well might have been the last night launch of the Shuttle program.
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Watched the launch from Sarasota - very surprised I could see it that well...Perfect night for it here....
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the ensemble members are clustered over southern New England now. One thing I must say about the GFS is that it did the best in regards to Danny's strength, although it was 100 or so miles too far east so far.
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881. flsky
Quoting Patrap:
NASA TV LIVE

APU start in Works


WOW!! Never get tired of that!! Could see the boosters separate. Even here in DB Shores you can here the sound of the rockets
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And the wave I'm referring to is not particularly large, just well organized and has persistently carried a good amount of moderate to strong convection.
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879. bwat
Quoting Patrap:
NASA TV LIVE

APU start in Works
Thanks, I found a link via google and went outside to try to see something to no avail, too cloudy here.
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Quoting kuppenskup:
GatorWx:
I was just mentioning that a few minutes ago, have you ever seen something that huge come off the African Coast?


I was speaking about the wave still well inland by about 600 miles.
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877. XL
Quoting BeanTech:
Great shuttle launch!
No matter how many times I see it, it never gets old!

Watched it from the front yard.


Have to be honest and say it's the first one I have watched and will probably be the last. It's very impressive and I admire all those involved though.
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Was able to see from south Florida for about 20 seconds. It's amazing to see something human made that far away.
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Quoting jasoniscoolman10:

That is 4 hours old. Check this backup Navy site.
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We have Liftoff! Wow!!!!
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Quoting kanc2001:
Link


Gosh! Talk about a cold cored low moving through GA!!
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NASA TV LIVE

APU start in Works
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128630
868. jipmg
The low is moving NNE at 5-10mph (Danny's COC), and its looking like a very weak depression based on satellite
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867. JLPR
94L seems ready to get going

The system now has great convergence and decent divergence where its center is so some convection should pop tonight

also the blob to 94Ls west should dissipate since it lost all of its convergence

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All systems go and weather is favorable, t-3mins and 10 sec.
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Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128630
864. bwat
Quoting Patrap:
Got a link to a online stream?
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GatorWx:
I was just mentioning that a few minutes ago, have you ever seen something that huge come off the African Coast?
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.