Danny still weak

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 7:32 PM GMT on August 28, 2009

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Tropical Storm Danny continues to look unhealthy, with an exposed low-level center and the main heavy thunderstorms well to the east. The center is oval instead of circular, which may portend that this center will dissipate and a new center will form under the heaviest thunderstorm activity. Danny has more of the appearance of a subtropical storm than a tropical storm on satellite imagery, and this structure will slow down any potential intensification. The amount of heavy thunderstorm activity has increased in the past few hours, though no thunderstorms have formed near the center. The latest Hurricane Hunter mission found one small spot of 45 mph surface winds between 1 - 3 pm EDT today, so Danny may barely qualify as a tropical storm. Danny's center may have begun moving to the north over the past hour, giving confidence that the storm's strongest winds and rain will stay offshore of North Carolina tonight and Saturday morning.


Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image at 3:03 pm EDT of Danny, showing the exposed swirl of clouds where Danny's center is, well displaced from the heaviest thunderstorm activity to the east. The center is oval-shaped and not circular, the sign of a weak circulation.

The forecast for Danny
With wind shear at 15 knots this afternoon, and forecast to increase to 20 knots tonight and 30 knots Saturday morning, it is unlikely Danny will be able to strengthen to more than a 50 mph tropical storm. Dry air from the upper-level low that has been keeping Danny disorganized continues to be a problem for the storm, as well. Most of the intensity forecast models continue to insist Danny will strengthen, but they have been doing a very poor job forecasting the intensity of Danny. With Danny's heavy thunderstorms all on the east side of the storm, it is unlikely that North Carolina or New England will feel tropical storm force winds from Danny when it scoots past on Saturday. Large swells from Danny creating high surf along the beaches of New England will be the primary hazard from the storm.

Massachusetts hurricane history
Two tropical storms have affected Massachusetts in the past decade, though neither of these storms brought sustained winds of tropical storm force (39 mph) to the state. Tropical Storm Beryl of 2006 just missed Cape Cod as a weak tropical storm with 45 mph winds. Beryl brought wind gusts to tropical storm force to Nantucket Island, and a 1 foot storm surge. Tropical Storm Hermine hit southeast Massachusetts on August 31, 2004, as a minimum-strength tropical storm with 40 mph winds. No land stations in Massachusetts reported tropical storm force winds during Beryl. The last time Massachusetts measured tropical storm force winds was in 1997 during that year's version of Tropical Storm Danny. Chatham recorded sustained winds of 44 mph, and Nantucket had 43 mph winds. The last time Massachusetts had hurricane force winds was in 1991 during Hurricane Bob, which hit Rhode Island as a Category 2 hurricane. Provincetown, Massachusetts measured sustained winds of 98 mph, gusting to 115 mph, and Buzzard's Bay received a 15 foot storm surge.

Invest 94L
The well-organized tropical wave (94L) mid-way between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands continues to be a threat to develop into a tropical depression in the next day or two. Water vapor satellite loops show that 94L has moistened the region surrounding it considerably today, and the storm is not ingesting as much dry air as this morning. However, visible satellite loops show only a small amount of heavy thunderstorm activity near the circulation center, which is broad and elongated from east to west. Shear is low, about 10 knots, and is expected to remain low, 5 - 10 knots, over the next five days. The waters are warm enough to support development, 27°C, and are expected to remain in the 27 - 28°C range over the next five days. It appears that 94L needs another 1 - 3 days to develop a well-formed circulation and become a tropical depression, given the favorable environment. NHC is giving 94L a medium (30 - 50% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday. Most of the models predict 94L will Be affected by two troughs of low pressure over the next week, which will pull the storm far enough north so that it will miss the Lesser Antilles Islands. It is then probable that 94L will be forced to the west again as the high pressure ridge steering the storm builds back in. The possible long-term threat to the U.S. East Coast is impossible to evaluate at this time.

I'm in New York City this weekend for my cousin's wedding, so will not be blogging again until Monday morning. In my absence, wundergound's severe storms expert, Dr. Rob Carver, will be posting in my blog Saturday and Sunday.

Jeff Masters

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I was working there. I came down with the Baptist mens group and Red Cross to relocate residents to a camp in oklahoma. I made 10 trips. Once it was cleared I went back to work in my normal capacity as an environmental engineer working impacts in various areas!
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961. JLPR
94L looking better

the convection is not intense but at least it is were it is supposed to be

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960. flsky
Quoting rareaire:
I was in New orleans for 53 days got 4 bullet holes in my truck to prove it. It was the longest days of my life. But we got our work done and get some good people out and up here to wait out their return!


Were you working there, or a resident? I heard some real horror stories from people trying to get out afterwards. I guess we all saw a lot of that on tv....
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Night All
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I was in New orleans for 53 days got 4 bullet holes in my truck to prove it. It was the longest days of my life. But we got our work done and get some good people out and up here to wait out their return!
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957. flsky
Quoting yorkcova:
i dont think that boy was really Danny victim. I am in OBX and the waves were as they have been all week.
very sad to hear what happended. i kept my kids out of the water today b/c the longshore current was very strong. but a twelve year old, i might have considered it truthfully. it can be more dangerous than you think. scary.


Actually, even today in Ponce Inlet, FL, there were a 'zillion' surfers out. Waves were intense - well, for this area anyways.
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Quoting flsky:


Will do. I was there afterwards with as a disaster worker. Will never forget the things I saw and experienced.
thank you now and then for all that you did to help out here...God sent us some pretty awesome people...
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i dont think that boy was really Danny victim. I am in OBX and the waves were as they have been all week.
very sad to hear what happended. i kept my kids out of the water today b/c the longshore current was very strong. but a twelve year old, i might have considered it truthfully. it can be more dangerous than you think. scary.
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954. flsky
Quoting KATRINABILOXIGIRL:
Just about this time 4 years ago I went to sleep living in one town that I have known all my life like the back of my hand and awoke to something that will never be the same again...Hurricane Katrina August 29, 2005..please keep all of those families who lost loved ones on that tragic day in your prayers..thanks and good night


Will do. I was there afterwards with as a disaster worker. Will never forget the things I saw and experienced.
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good by far well well see you next time a round by by Danny boy
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952. flsky
Quoting rareaire:
but it uses 1/2 ton of fuel per second!! Its no Preius!


Well, it's a rare occurrence. Guess we can deal with that since it won't be happening too much longer - alas.
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Quoting GatorWX:


why is that? What is its trajectory? Is the SAL going to be a problem? What about shear? What do the models point out?


it appears to have a bit of northern component (unless my eyes are betraying me? which isn't totally impossible haha)... anyway, on this course it would encounter increased sheer from a couple troughs progressing across the Atlantic, which would also give it an even more northerly component and probably make it a fish long before it even reached Bermuda's longitude. On top of that, it's not that organized from my point of view I don't see anything special about it, especially when compared to 94L. Also, if it gets pushed West by the ridge expected to build in (assuming it's not already at too North of a latitude), it looks like there will be moderate (but possibly decreasing) sheer especially if it makes it near the Gulf. So, although I'm not saying this thing is DEFINITELY not going to develop into much, it is pretty safe to say that it's going to have a harder time of being a threat than 94L will... assuming 94L develops. It's all to be taken with a grain of salt at this point though. I'm not the best at long term forecasts, but I'd say I'm above the bottom 50 percentile lol

edit - the wave after the one that just ejected off the coast of Africa looks like it could be good though
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you really have to admire anyone willing to sit on top of a bomb, light it and travel 4 miles per second in a vehicle built by the lowest bidder!!! ;]
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Just about this time 4 years ago I went to sleep living in one town that I have known all my life like the back of my hand and awoke to something that will never be the same again...Hurricane Katrina August 29, 2005..please keep all of those families who lost loved ones on that tragic day in your prayers..thanks and good night
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Quoting rareaire:
I was watching the NASA launch can you imagine what its like to fly 4 miles per second!


You don't remember the days when you was doing your drugs.........LMAO J/K
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but it uses 1/2 ton of fuel per second!! Its no Preius!
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Looks like Danny is trying. With the wind shear shown earlier I don't really give him a chance.
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945. flsky
Quoting rareaire:
I was watching the NASA launch can you imagine what its like to fly 4 miles per second!


Nope. Those people are SO brave. Hard to get my attention back on the weather.
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ok im out for the nite. Well see what we got in the morning.
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Quoting hurricane556:
00z gfs builds high back in pretty good at 150 hours


Link?
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I was watching the NASA launch can you imagine what its like to fly 4 miles per second!
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Quoting flsky:
What happened?


A 12 year old boy went missing in the surf while body-surfing in the waves of Danny.
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nite Storm W
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High Pin ball in the Atlantic !!
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00z gfs builds high back in pretty good at 150 hours
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Mean little blob if it makes it off the coast.

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Tampa whats your take on 94L
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Very nice launch. I sure wish i had lived here during the Saturn V days. Perfect SRB seperation.
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Quoting rareaire:
Actually Tampa : I feel 94l is going to develop and feel the trough coming down from the conus however its late and it will not do as much to move it too far east and the ridge will build back in forcing it west. Imo it will get into the carribean and its going to be a problem. As for Itensity it really is to early but I do think its going to develop.


I actually posted earlier without looking at alot of things that it would likely move into the Caribbean....not sure it will do that now......but, just as it approaches the Islands a big high will build above it and force it WEST and maybe even SouthWest......either way i see someone in the ConUs getting hit by 94L unless things change with that bigh HIGH that is forecast to build.
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just saw the shuttle fly by...pretty darned cool...
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Storm said it is dry in the carribean but if it gets some size and wraps its going to be a problem! Dry but very very Hot!
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it is 57 degrees here in Naugatuck CT with heavy rain, we've already had a thunderstorm move in from the ocean. Here on the hill we've had 1.27 inches of rain, another 2 to 3 possible from Danny unless it turns east later than expected. This rain is not purely from Danny, as most know - but from a couple other systems combined with the moisture from Danny. Today's highest gust is 6MPH, so virtually no wind as to be expected.
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Then it will land in your front Yard not StormW's though just yours
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927. flsky
Quoting Magicchaos:


Heard that on TWC an hr or two ago. A 12 year old boy.

What happened?
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Actually Tampa : I feel 94l is going to develop and feel the trough coming down from the conus however its late and it will not do as much to move it too far east and the ridge will build back in forcing it west. Imo it will get into the carribean and its going to be a problem. As for Itensity it really is to early but I do think its going to develop.
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Quoting 2ifbyC:


The last night (actually pre-dawn) launch will be in Feb.
Thanks, that's good to know. I was repeating what I read on one of the main news websites. I'm very glad to hear there will be another. Love watching them even when relatively far away.
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Quoting SaoFeng:
Danny maybe claims its first victim

http://www.star-telegram.com/238/story/1568824.html


Heard that on TWC an hr or two ago. A 12 year old boy.
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Quoting SaoFeng:
Danny maybe claims its first victim

http://www.star-telegram.com/238/story/1568824.html


don't you love how people don't listen? and then they're the same ones who say we gave them "no warning."
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Quoting ChrisCone:
i personally think 94L is the wave to watch, and the next wave is just going to die... and even if it doesn't it seems already on a suicidal trajectory


why is that? What is its trajectory? Is the SAL going to be a problem? What about shear? What do the models point out?
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920. OBXNC
rainy, stormy night here on the Outer Banks ... Reporting live from the outer bands of the storm ... lol :) Hey everyone!
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Quoting TampaSpin:


Rare where is your pinpoint accurate forecast for 94L be at my friend.......LOL


TAMPA - your house you know that, lol
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Danny maybe claims its first victim

http://www.star-telegram.com/238/story/1568824.html
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We had off and on torrential rainfall for the past hour here in Everett, PA. Didn't have the chance to watch the sky...
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I've seen the launch up close twice. Worth the trip and the crowds. An amazing experience.
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Quoting LightningCharmer:
This very well might have been the last night launch of the Shuttle program.


The last night (actually pre-dawn) launch will be in Feb.
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913. XL
Quoting TampaSpin:


Probably be the last....WHATEVER.....certainly not for me.


Certainly don't want to irritate anyone and I am not saying it isn't incredible. It just isn't me. I'm glad I saw it. I know my hubby would watch every launch as I am sure many people on here will.
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Quoting rareaire:
Reasoning?


Rare where is your pinpoint accurate forecast for 94L be at my friend.......LOL
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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