Danny still weak

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 7:32 PM GMT on August 28, 2009

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Tropical Storm Danny continues to look unhealthy, with an exposed low-level center and the main heavy thunderstorms well to the east. The center is oval instead of circular, which may portend that this center will dissipate and a new center will form under the heaviest thunderstorm activity. Danny has more of the appearance of a subtropical storm than a tropical storm on satellite imagery, and this structure will slow down any potential intensification. The amount of heavy thunderstorm activity has increased in the past few hours, though no thunderstorms have formed near the center. The latest Hurricane Hunter mission found one small spot of 45 mph surface winds between 1 - 3 pm EDT today, so Danny may barely qualify as a tropical storm. Danny's center may have begun moving to the north over the past hour, giving confidence that the storm's strongest winds and rain will stay offshore of North Carolina tonight and Saturday morning.


Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image at 3:03 pm EDT of Danny, showing the exposed swirl of clouds where Danny's center is, well displaced from the heaviest thunderstorm activity to the east. The center is oval-shaped and not circular, the sign of a weak circulation.

The forecast for Danny
With wind shear at 15 knots this afternoon, and forecast to increase to 20 knots tonight and 30 knots Saturday morning, it is unlikely Danny will be able to strengthen to more than a 50 mph tropical storm. Dry air from the upper-level low that has been keeping Danny disorganized continues to be a problem for the storm, as well. Most of the intensity forecast models continue to insist Danny will strengthen, but they have been doing a very poor job forecasting the intensity of Danny. With Danny's heavy thunderstorms all on the east side of the storm, it is unlikely that North Carolina or New England will feel tropical storm force winds from Danny when it scoots past on Saturday. Large swells from Danny creating high surf along the beaches of New England will be the primary hazard from the storm.

Massachusetts hurricane history
Two tropical storms have affected Massachusetts in the past decade, though neither of these storms brought sustained winds of tropical storm force (39 mph) to the state. Tropical Storm Beryl of 2006 just missed Cape Cod as a weak tropical storm with 45 mph winds. Beryl brought wind gusts to tropical storm force to Nantucket Island, and a 1 foot storm surge. Tropical Storm Hermine hit southeast Massachusetts on August 31, 2004, as a minimum-strength tropical storm with 40 mph winds. No land stations in Massachusetts reported tropical storm force winds during Beryl. The last time Massachusetts measured tropical storm force winds was in 1997 during that year's version of Tropical Storm Danny. Chatham recorded sustained winds of 44 mph, and Nantucket had 43 mph winds. The last time Massachusetts had hurricane force winds was in 1991 during Hurricane Bob, which hit Rhode Island as a Category 2 hurricane. Provincetown, Massachusetts measured sustained winds of 98 mph, gusting to 115 mph, and Buzzard's Bay received a 15 foot storm surge.

Invest 94L
The well-organized tropical wave (94L) mid-way between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands continues to be a threat to develop into a tropical depression in the next day or two. Water vapor satellite loops show that 94L has moistened the region surrounding it considerably today, and the storm is not ingesting as much dry air as this morning. However, visible satellite loops show only a small amount of heavy thunderstorm activity near the circulation center, which is broad and elongated from east to west. Shear is low, about 10 knots, and is expected to remain low, 5 - 10 knots, over the next five days. The waters are warm enough to support development, 27°C, and are expected to remain in the 27 - 28°C range over the next five days. It appears that 94L needs another 1 - 3 days to develop a well-formed circulation and become a tropical depression, given the favorable environment. NHC is giving 94L a medium (30 - 50% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday. Most of the models predict 94L will Be affected by two troughs of low pressure over the next week, which will pull the storm far enough north so that it will miss the Lesser Antilles Islands. It is then probable that 94L will be forced to the west again as the high pressure ridge steering the storm builds back in. The possible long-term threat to the U.S. East Coast is impossible to evaluate at this time.

I'm in New York City this weekend for my cousin's wedding, so will not be blogging again until Monday morning. In my absence, wundergound's severe storms expert, Dr. Rob Carver, will be posting in my blog Saturday and Sunday.

Jeff Masters

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112. slavp
Quoting IKE:


In August!

I have a feeling this "tropical" season is going to be over with for the northern gulf coast(where I live), early.

I'll guess it's got about 6 weeks left.
God I hope you are correct! LOL
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Quoting Mazgreb: What do you think about invest 94 in the east Pacific now off SW Mexico ? Initial computer models show it might be a threat to Baja or Northwest Mexico. One model shows it going right up the Sea of Cortez. Too early to tell?

We're watching that one closely - hope it brings at least a little rain to the central Mexican coast. Very little rain this summer so far.

Amazing how almost no one on this blog cares what happens in
the EPAC. Where are you located?
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Quoting sullivanweather:



The 1938 hurricane was a tropical cyclone at landfall. A category 3, in fact, with a 946mb central pressure.


Beat me to it...the transition didn't occur until later in the day, some 4-6 hours after landfall
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109. IKE
Quoting reedzone:


A Nor'Easter in August.. However the 1938 Long Island Express Hurricane hit Long Island as an Extratropical Storm, but had category 2-3 winds. Interesting indeed!


In August!

I have a feeling this "tropical" season is going to be over with for the northern gulf coast(where I live), early.

I'll guess it's got about 6 weeks left.
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Quoting Funkadelic:
OMG reed will you stop wishcasting danny boy? Please it's getting annoying reading your posts about an un-organized storm. If hits SC dead on RIGHT now it will be a normal afternoon shower.


Wishcasting? Just going by satellite obs. Danny is still a 40 mph. storm as I suspected it would be right before the advisory came out. Some (slight) strengthening is expected, but folks up north need to prepare for Nor'easter conditions.
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Quoting TropicTraveler:

In actual use it can mean a sort of stupid person or fool.


It doesn't by chance mean "warming of surface waters of the tropical central and eastern Eastern Pacific Ocean", does it?"
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Quoting reedzone:


A Nor'Easter in August.. However the 1938 Long Island Express Hurricane hit Long Island as an Extratropical Storm, but had category 2-3 winds. Interesting indeed!



The 1938 hurricane was a tropical cyclone at landfall. A category 3, in fact, with a 946mb central pressure.
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Quoting reedzone:


A Nor'Easter in August.. However the 1938 Long Island Express Hurricane hit Long Island as an Extratropical Storm, but had category 2-3 winds. Interesting indeed!


Not to mention it was moving over 60mph! Wow, that would be something to track nowadays!
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84. reedzone
Looks like it to me as well (COC and convection closer than earlier)
Instead of COC relocating under the convection - it looks to me like the convection is coming closer to the COC


Learning to post pictures from my camera, and have been carrying it around with me. This is sooo much fun!

Finally figured out how to upload pics from camera. (It was working all along - I just did not give it time to initiate)

This is my first effort (July 29) Thought I could run into the grocery store before it hit. I was wrong.




This is my favorite (Aug 14) Crossing the Ashley River on my way home.

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Quoting IKE:
Stronger as an extratropical system then as a tropical one. Not sure I've ever seen that.



A Nor'Easter in August.. However the 1938 Long Island Express Hurricane hit Long Island as an Extratropical Storm, but had category 2-3 winds. Interesting indeed!
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either theres something wrong with my satellite or the center of Danny is reforming. Sliding quickly ENE
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100. IKE
Stronger as an extratropical system then as a tropical one. Not sure I've ever seen that.

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good evening all, i see the blog is a little fiesty today :P

Boiler up!!!
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Quoting futuremet:
ECMWF ensemble mean still show ridging will establish over the east coast. The only difference between this run and 0Z, is that this runs shows the longwave trough detaching as the ridge erodes it. Regardless, the ridge will establish.




There's no ridging along the East Coast on the ECMWF model.

What that model shows, if you take a look at the dailies, is an omega-like ridge developing over the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes with a cut-off low along the East Coast. Geopotential height anomalies may be above climo but weaknesses can still exist within the overall pattern.
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Quoting K8eCane:
someone (and i lost your post) spoke from Topsail Beach earlier. I wanted to tell ya i'm right here in Wilmington and it feels like little bands are coming thru with some pretty good gusts really

Hey! I'm from Wilmington too(Ogden), and you are right it is getting a little gusty outside. I think that is more from the upper level low kicking southwesterly winds our way; but also could be from Danny. It's interesting to note that if you look northwest of the center of Danny some bands are beginning to form, and I think Danny will help enhance our rainfall here tonight and early saturday.
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96. bwat
DANNY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/HR. AN INCREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST EXPECTED ON SUNDAY. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF
DANNY IS EXPECTED TO PASS OFFSHORE OF THE OUTER BANKS OF NORTH
CAROLINA EARLY SATURDAY...PASS OFFSHORE OF SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND
ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND MOVE NEAR THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SUNDAY.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
95. IKE
TROPICAL STORM DANNY DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052009
500 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2009

AFTER STALLING EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON...THE CENTER OF DANNY IS
FINALLY MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD OR NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD. DATA FROM AN
AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT SUGGEST THAT DANNY IS
STILL A MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM...BASED ON A 33-KT OBSERVATION FROM
THE SFMR IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS THE POSSIBILITY FOR A LITTLE
STRENGTHENING IN THE SHORT TERM...AS THE INCREASING UPPER-LEVEL
DIVERGENCE COULD SUPPORT THE REDEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION NEAR THE
CENTER. HOWEVER...BY 24 HOURS...DANNY WILL BE MOVING INTO A VERY
UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR A TROPICAL CYCLONE...WITH THE SHIPS
MODEL SHOWING WIND SHEAR INCREASING TO 35 KT BY THAT TIME. BY 36
HOURS...DANNY WILL BE OVER SSTS OF NEAR 20C...AND INTERACTING WITH
THE DEEP-LAYER BAROCLINIC TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. MOST OF
THE LATEST GLOBAL MODELS AND PHASE SPACE DIAGRAMS SHOW THAT DANNY
WILL BE EXTRATROPICAL BY THAT TIME. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
INTENSIFICATION OF DANNY LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD AS AN
EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC.

THE GUIDANCE WAS INITIALIZED WITH A LONG TERM MOTION OF 315/08...
AND REMAINS IS GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE RAPID ACCELERATION OF DANNY
NORTHWARD AND NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD. IN FACT...THE MODEL SPREAD IS
SMALLER NOW THAN IT WAS EARLIER TODAY. THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS SLOWER
THAN THE MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD DUE TO THE SLOW
INITIAL MOTION. FROM 24 TO 36 HOURS...THE NEW FORECAST IS SHIFTED
TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK...BUT DANNY IS STILL
EXPECTED TO MOVE CLOSE TO THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF NEW ENGLAND AND
APPROACH NOVA SCOTIA IN 36-48 HOURS.

DATA FROM THE AIRCRAFT SUGGEST THAT THE ONLY 34-KT WINDS ARE LOCATED
IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. THE LACK OF WINDS ON THE WEST SIDE OF
DANNY LESSEN THE THREAT FOR TROPICAL STORM WIND REACHING THE NORTH
CAROLINA OUTER BANKS. HOWEVER...THE WATCH IS LEFT IN PLACE IN CASE
THE WIND FIELD BECOMES BETTER DEFINED ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF DANNY.
AS DANNY BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL...ITS EXPANDING WIND FIELD MAY
IMPACT THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND. THESE POTENTIAL IMPACTS WILL BE
HANDLED WITH GALE WARNINGS AND OTHER PRODUCTS ISSUED BY LOCAL NWS
OFFICES IN THAT REGION.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 28/2100Z 30.4N 75.4W 35 KT
12HR VT 29/0600Z 32.7N 75.8W 40 KT
24HR VT 29/1800Z 37.3N 73.2W 40 KT
36HR VT 30/0600Z 41.9N 68.2W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 30/1800Z 46.5N 61.4W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 31/1800Z 50.5N 49.5W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 01/1800Z 53.0N 35.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 02/1800Z 55.0N 22.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
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Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
TROPICAL STORM DANNY ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052009
500 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2009

...HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND DANNY STILL A TROPICAL STORM...BEGINNING
TO MOVE NORTHWARD...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST
FROM CAPE LOOKOUT NORTHWARD TO DUCK...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND
ALBEMARLE SOUNDS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE...
WITHIN 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED FOR
PORTIONS OF THIS AREA TONIGHT.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE FROM THE CAROLINAS NORTHWARD TO NEW ENGLAND AND
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DANNY.
ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THIS
AREA ON FRIDAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA
OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DANNY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.4 WEST OR ABOUT 330
MILES...535 KM...SOUTH OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA AND ABOUT 810
MILES...1300 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS.

DANNY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/HR. AN INCREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST EXPECTED ON SUNDAY. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF
DANNY IS EXPECTED TO PASS OFFSHORE OF THE OUTER BANKS OF NORTH
CAROLINA EARLY SATURDAY...PASS OFFSHORE OF SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND
ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND MOVE NEAR THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SUNDAY.

DATA FROM THE AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE
TONIGHT...WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY EXPECTED ON SATURDAY.
DANNY IS EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL ON SATURDAY NIGHT.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM
MOSTLY TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

DATA FROM THE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.

LARGE SWELLS FROM DANNY ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE DANGEROUS SURF
CONDITIONS AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE U.S. EAST
COAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. PLEASE CONSULT STATEMENTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE FOR MORE
DETAILS.

...SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...30.4N 75.4W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 6 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB


AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN


last millibar reading was 1008 mlb.. It has already strengthened just a tiny little tad :D LOL. We'll see what happens tonight.
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92. bwat
NHC is gonna have to correct their advisory, they got Danny Moving NNE on Sunday. Typo for sure.
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Looks like Danny should be officially moving NE by 8pm. Last frame or two on visible look like NE movement.
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Quoting hurricanejunky:


So there is still a chance it could hit the WS headquarters?

YES!
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I see Stormtop is on here with a new name, however it's so clear it's Stormtop! Down with the downcaster!
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Quoting kmanislander:


Sorry, having trouble getting into the blog. The first trough is the one now impacting Danny therfore the second trough would be many days away from interacting with whatever 94L may become. Not sure on timing and don't have the time now unfortunately to look at the evolution of that second trough.



Good analysis earlier, Kman.

I'm with you on a slower development. 94L is still stuck in the ITCZ - east to west oriented linear convergence and vorticity.

Really strong low/mid level trade wind flow north of the ITCZ will make more "shear" than forecast and make it difficult for it to close off.

Given all that, I think the models drag it too far north too fast. The models in general have been moving it way to slow considering it's south of a pretty decent ridge at the moment...
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Quoting Drakoen:
I don't see 94L getting into the Caribbean. I agree with Jeff Masters. There should be enough troughs to erode the ridge to allow the system to move to the WNW or NW then possibly back west.


So there is still a chance it could hit the WS headquarters?
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TROPICAL STORM DANNY ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052009
500 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2009

...HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND DANNY STILL A TROPICAL STORM...BEGINNING
TO MOVE NORTHWARD...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST
FROM CAPE LOOKOUT NORTHWARD TO DUCK...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND
ALBEMARLE SOUNDS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE...
WITHIN 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED FOR
PORTIONS OF THIS AREA TONIGHT.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE FROM THE CAROLINAS NORTHWARD TO NEW ENGLAND AND
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DANNY.
ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THIS
AREA ON FRIDAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA
OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DANNY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.4 WEST OR ABOUT 330
MILES...535 KM...SOUTH OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA AND ABOUT 810
MILES...1300 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS.

DANNY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/HR. AN INCREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST EXPECTED ON SUNDAY. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF
DANNY IS EXPECTED TO PASS OFFSHORE OF THE OUTER BANKS OF NORTH
CAROLINA EARLY SATURDAY...PASS OFFSHORE OF SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND
ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND MOVE NEAR THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SUNDAY.

DATA FROM THE AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE
TONIGHT...WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY EXPECTED ON SATURDAY.
DANNY IS EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL ON SATURDAY NIGHT.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM
MOSTLY TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

DATA FROM THE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.

LARGE SWELLS FROM DANNY ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE DANGEROUS SURF
CONDITIONS AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE U.S. EAST
COAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. PLEASE CONSULT STATEMENTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE FOR MORE
DETAILS.

...SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...30.4N 75.4W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 6 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB


AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
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Danny is starting to get a better structure, but convection continues to lack near the center, yet it seems like every new frame, the convection is trying to get close to the center. A track right off the coast of the Carolinas is exactly what I'm looking for, they won't even know a Tropical Storm is passing like 50 miles east because all the stuff will be east LOL. Now when it gets to New England, that might be another story, yet likely Extratropical in nature, think of a Nor'easter in August ;)
Danny should remain a 40 mph. Tropical Storm at 5 p.m. unless HHs find heavier wind reports, I doubt it though.

You can see some bands of rain well northwest of the center of Danny influenced by the ULL and Dannys pressure gradient.
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Will check in later as it is taking a very long time for me to get in with each refresh. Probably the firewall.
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Wow impressive wave coming off Africa and another nice wave in mid-Africa.Sepember is going to be a bumpy ride!
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someone (and i lost your post) spoke from Topsail Beach earlier. I wanted to tell ya i'm right here in Wilmington and it feels like little bands are coming thru with some pretty good gusts really
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75. JLPR
Quoting ChrisCone:


haha yeah, i meant if you don't want to get confused =D

my prediction is that it's going to stay in the northern hemisphere ;)


that's a good prediction xD
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 5223
I don't see 94L getting into the Caribbean. I agree with Jeff Masters. There should be enough troughs to erode the ridge to allow the system to move to the WNW or NW then possibly back west.
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Quoting stormsurge39:
Kman, If the first trough misses 94L, when is the second trough due to go by?


Sorry, having trouble getting into the blog. The first trough is the one now impacting Danny therfore the second trough would be many days away from interacting with whatever 94L may become. Not sure on timing and don't have the time now unfortunately to look at the evolution of that second trough.
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Quoting JLPR:


duhh!
lets wait till a more defined center forms
but it is still confusing xD


haha yeah, i meant if you don't want to get confused =D

my prediction is that it's going to stay in the northern hemisphere ;)

as for Danny what a fizzler. I saw someone's post the other day of somebody putting a bulls eye on SC for 94L lolol apparently some of the people who post in here must be from the future! anyway i think its track isn't going to be that interesting, a west track or west northwest. Past day 6 or 7 is when I think the track will start to be crucial and require more attention. The East Coast needs to be a bit prepared as long as the pattern continues to bring storms up the coast. Get enough of these things doing that and at least one of them is going to hit something. Not saying there's anything to say 94L WILL threaten the East Coast, but it is a distinct possibility later on. Again, a distinct possibility that it will THREATEN, not HIT.
70. JLPR
Quoting ChrisCone:


don't look at the models this early in the game.


duhh!
lets wait till a more defined center forms
but it is still confusing xD
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 5223
ECMWF ensemble mean still show ridging will establish over the east coast. The only difference between this run and 0Z, is that this runs shows the longwave trough detaching as the ridge erodes it. Regardless, the ridge will establish.

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68. JLPR
Quoting TropicTraveler:

In actual use it can mean a sort of stupid person or fool.


yep I know lol
I speak Spanish =P
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 5223
67. IKE
Not sure if this was posted earlier on the other blog...12Z ECMWF shows 94L and then losses it...
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Quoting JLPR:


yep and after seeing what it meant he shouldn't use it anymore on here
thats kinda like a bad word =P

In actual use it can mean a sort of stupid person or fool.
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Quoting JLPR:
The models keep changing from north to west
and form west to north with 94L

...so confusing =S


the models are basically for kicks and giggles this early in the game...
Hey Drak,
What are you thoughts on potential track for 94L? Are you in agreement with Dr. Masters?
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.