Danny still weak

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 7:32 PM GMT on August 28, 2009

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Tropical Storm Danny continues to look unhealthy, with an exposed low-level center and the main heavy thunderstorms well to the east. The center is oval instead of circular, which may portend that this center will dissipate and a new center will form under the heaviest thunderstorm activity. Danny has more of the appearance of a subtropical storm than a tropical storm on satellite imagery, and this structure will slow down any potential intensification. The amount of heavy thunderstorm activity has increased in the past few hours, though no thunderstorms have formed near the center. The latest Hurricane Hunter mission found one small spot of 45 mph surface winds between 1 - 3 pm EDT today, so Danny may barely qualify as a tropical storm. Danny's center may have begun moving to the north over the past hour, giving confidence that the storm's strongest winds and rain will stay offshore of North Carolina tonight and Saturday morning.


Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image at 3:03 pm EDT of Danny, showing the exposed swirl of clouds where Danny's center is, well displaced from the heaviest thunderstorm activity to the east. The center is oval-shaped and not circular, the sign of a weak circulation.

The forecast for Danny
With wind shear at 15 knots this afternoon, and forecast to increase to 20 knots tonight and 30 knots Saturday morning, it is unlikely Danny will be able to strengthen to more than a 50 mph tropical storm. Dry air from the upper-level low that has been keeping Danny disorganized continues to be a problem for the storm, as well. Most of the intensity forecast models continue to insist Danny will strengthen, but they have been doing a very poor job forecasting the intensity of Danny. With Danny's heavy thunderstorms all on the east side of the storm, it is unlikely that North Carolina or New England will feel tropical storm force winds from Danny when it scoots past on Saturday. Large swells from Danny creating high surf along the beaches of New England will be the primary hazard from the storm.

Massachusetts hurricane history
Two tropical storms have affected Massachusetts in the past decade, though neither of these storms brought sustained winds of tropical storm force (39 mph) to the state. Tropical Storm Beryl of 2006 just missed Cape Cod as a weak tropical storm with 45 mph winds. Beryl brought wind gusts to tropical storm force to Nantucket Island, and a 1 foot storm surge. Tropical Storm Hermine hit southeast Massachusetts on August 31, 2004, as a minimum-strength tropical storm with 40 mph winds. No land stations in Massachusetts reported tropical storm force winds during Beryl. The last time Massachusetts measured tropical storm force winds was in 1997 during that year's version of Tropical Storm Danny. Chatham recorded sustained winds of 44 mph, and Nantucket had 43 mph winds. The last time Massachusetts had hurricane force winds was in 1991 during Hurricane Bob, which hit Rhode Island as a Category 2 hurricane. Provincetown, Massachusetts measured sustained winds of 98 mph, gusting to 115 mph, and Buzzard's Bay received a 15 foot storm surge.

Invest 94L
The well-organized tropical wave (94L) mid-way between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands continues to be a threat to develop into a tropical depression in the next day or two. Water vapor satellite loops show that 94L has moistened the region surrounding it considerably today, and the storm is not ingesting as much dry air as this morning. However, visible satellite loops show only a small amount of heavy thunderstorm activity near the circulation center, which is broad and elongated from east to west. Shear is low, about 10 knots, and is expected to remain low, 5 - 10 knots, over the next five days. The waters are warm enough to support development, 27°C, and are expected to remain in the 27 - 28°C range over the next five days. It appears that 94L needs another 1 - 3 days to develop a well-formed circulation and become a tropical depression, given the favorable environment. NHC is giving 94L a medium (30 - 50% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday. Most of the models predict 94L will Be affected by two troughs of low pressure over the next week, which will pull the storm far enough north so that it will miss the Lesser Antilles Islands. It is then probable that 94L will be forced to the west again as the high pressure ridge steering the storm builds back in. The possible long-term threat to the U.S. East Coast is impossible to evaluate at this time.

I'm in New York City this weekend for my cousin's wedding, so will not be blogging again until Monday morning. In my absence, wundergound's severe storms expert, Dr. Rob Carver, will be posting in my blog Saturday and Sunday.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting iceman55:
Link



check this web site .


Sigh. Wake me up when September ends. ;) Thanks for the link. :)
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Karen-is that based on the nino setup
I know we have seen these storms struggle with sal and shear, also seeing a pattern of recurve
on the other hand its now getting into the peak
what is it that defines TX as being a safe zone in your book
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Quoting KarenRei:


No. Any sort of TX storm is unlikely this year.

How do you know that a storm in Texas is unlikely?
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Quoting Racefan24:


I would like to know the Farmer's Alm said about a storm in Texas.


Other than the Rita and Ike of it all. I sure hope we don't get a storm this year because of what the NWS say about at least the upper TX coast and El Nino.

Possible Effects of ENSO (El Niño/Southern Oscillation)

Years of moderate to strong warm ENSO events were checked for any possible relationship with tropical cyclones affecting Louisiana and southeast Texas. These warm events seemed to have no significant correlation to an increase or decrease in tropical storms and hurricanes entering the area; it has been recently discovered though that it does make a difference further down the Texas coast.

Unexpectedly, ENSO events seemed to have a strong correlation to major hurricanes in this area. Five of the eight major hurricanes struck the region during the middle of moderate to strong El Niño events. If one expands the criteria to within one year of a moderate ENSO seven of eight become included. Further study is needed to totally resolve this issue.

Yikes! But hopefully no one gets one this year.
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1007. jipmg
Im going to keep an eye on that area of convection South east of Danny, I think it could actually seperate itself from DANNY, and try to turn into something
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1006. flsky
Quoting popartpete:
After Challenger, NASA fixed the Solid Rocket Boosters so much that there is not even the slightest chance of a hot-gas blow by. Every segment of the joint is sealed, double-sealed, and triple-sealed...like a post-1982 bottle of Tylenol.


Ha! Thank goodness!
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Quoting popartpete:
The most complex machine ever built, destroyed twice...once by a cheap piece of rubber, the next by a cheap piece of foam.
After Challenger, NASA fixed the Solid Rocket Boosters so much that there is not even the slightest chance of a hot-gas blow by. Every segment of the joint is sealed, double-sealed, and triple-sealed...like a post-1982 bottle of Tylenol.
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Quoting CCstormer:
If I remember correctly the Farmers Alm had a storm at TX on the 4th and 12th days of Sept
I realize its not exactly the ensemble model but any thoughts on whether 94 could be the storm for the 4th


No. Any sort of TX storm is unlikely this year.
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Quoting CCstormer:
If I remember correctly the Farmers Alm had a storm at TX on the 4th and 12th days of Sept
I realize its not exactly the ensemble model but any thoughts on whether 94 could be the storm for the 4th
Timewise, whats rolling off Africa matches well and the high building in would help to push in that general direction


I would like to know the Farmer's Alm said about a storm in Texas.
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Quoting flsky:


It's amazing you could see it from that far away!
When I saw the shuttle launch from the Tampa Bay area, we couldn't simply just see it, night turned to day...SIX MILLION pounds of thrust is quite bright!
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Quoting rareaire:
you really have to admire anyone willing to sit on top of a bomb, light it and travel 4 miles per second in a vehicle built by the lowest bidder!!! ;]
The most complex machine ever built, destroyed twice...once by a cheap piece of rubber, the next by a cheap piece of foam.
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Quoting CCstormer:
To clarify: timewise the Africa storm would match well with the 12th prediction


I just looked at that and it is the 1-3 but that is still close. Kind of wicked if you think about it.
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Bah, who cares about Hebert boxes. 94L is already in the TampaBayFish box. Look out!
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To clarify: timewise the Africa storm would match well with the 12th prediction
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I would go to Mississippi, Alabama or Florida. LOL
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If I remember correctly the Farmers Alm had a storm at TX on the 4th and 12th days of Sept
I realize its not exactly the ensemble model but any thoughts on whether 94 could be the storm for the 4th
Timewise, whats rolling off Africa matches well and the high building in would help to push in that general direction
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994. flsky
Quoting nolacane2009:
I mean that you can drive in the city and still see Military Police. No relief worker just a few MP's Here and there. I will tell you this much I would not blame one Relief worker if they never wanted to come help again. This City I live in really treated them like Crap (pardon the French). I don't even live in the City itself but 15 minutes from Bourbon St. on the Westbank and I could not get home. Really sucked bad.


Actually, relief workers will go where they are most needed. That's just the way they are!
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Quoting Magicchaos:
Wikipedia article on Hebert Box


Thank you
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Wikipedia article on Hebert Box
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Good Night
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989. flsky
Quoting rareaire:
Patrap can tell you more about the city he was there the whole time. He's a real trooper. Me I got in got out.


I guess I could say I did too. Spent a couple of months, tho. I know that Patrap had to endure a lot, including living in a FEMA trailer for a long period of time. He's very good about not letting people forget what happened there - thank goodness.
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ok i really have to go to bed. You guys be good and play nice!
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I mean that you can drive in the city and still see Military Police. No relief worker just a few MP's Here and there. I will tell you this much I would not blame one Relief worker if they never wanted to come help again. This City I live in really treated them like Crap (pardon the French). I don't even live in the City itself but 15 minutes from Bourbon St. on the Westbank and I could not get home. Really sucked bad.
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Quoting WunderFul:
NolaCane -- I think it is possible to see it really blow up tomorrow. If it stays due west in trajectory, it is about to move into much warmer waters. It is so disorganized right now, the big question is where a COC will form. If it forms further to the south or west, this thing could be quite interesting/problematic. If further north or east, might be a fish and never get its act fully together. Way too early to tell. Storm said earlier he didn't see any turn any time soon. Next 24-48 hours should be interesting.


Well looks like I will be seeing you guys alot more because my eyes will be glued to Weather Underground. Thank you for answering.
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985. flsky
Quoting nolacane2009:


I live in New Orleans and I agree you should still see some of the areas have a few MP's driving around. It really sucks because if something like that would happen again I do not believe anyone would want to come back if you know what I mean.


Do you mean people that live there now, or relief workers? I remember having to go thru a lot of military checkpoints when there working. Very strange, being that I was in the U.S.
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NOPD didnt stand a chance. They were outnumbered and no way to get help. It was a no win situation. I felt for everyone , except the 3 idiots that shot at me!
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Quoting Magicchaos:
The models look like they take 94L into Herbert Box#1


What is Herbert Box #1?
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NolaCane -- I think it is possible to see it really blow up tomorrow. If it stays due west in trajectory, it is about to move into much warmer waters. It is so disorganized right now, the big question is where a COC will form. If it forms further to the south or west, this thing could be quite interesting/problematic. If further north or east, might be a fish and never get its act fully together. Way too early to tell. Storm said earlier he didn't see any turn any time soon. Next 24-48 hours should be interesting.
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The models look like they take 94L into Herbert Box#1
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the folks that came up to Muskogee to the braggs base were great. Many still live around here today.
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My Brother in Law was a Police Officer for Katrina and he quit right after a lot of cops could not deal with the stress or a bunch just went and got jobs else where.
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Patrap can tell you more about the city he was there the whole time. He's a real trooper. Me I got in got out.
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977. JRRP
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Quoting rareaire:
It was like a bad movie. There are some great folks in that city but most of them got out and the ones that were left were straight up out of control. I never saw so many national guard outside of a war in my life! walmart was guarded by soldiers with m-16's. Finally we got military help and it was a good from then on. Those soldiers will shoot back, lol


I live in New Orleans and I agree you should still see some of the areas have a few MP's driving around. It really sucks because if something like that would happen again I do not believe anyone would want to come back if you know what I mean.
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It was like a bad movie. There are some great folks in that city but most of them got out and the ones that were left were straight up out of control. I never saw so many national guard outside of a war in my life! walmart was guarded by soldiers with m-16's. Finally we got military help and it was a good from then on. Those soldiers will shoot back, lol
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973. flsky
Quoting rareaire:
We just got to close to some folks who felt the need to be embrace the chaos. Thigs were rampant where we were. The cops just bailed on the majority of the city.


Too true. A very tragic situation.
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I was just looking at the GDFL Model Run on here and they are saying that 94L will be a Tropical Storm by tomorrow. Does anyone think that will be true and a Cat 2 by Tuesday?
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971. flsky
Quoting TampaSpin:
Nite all.......Watch this shift south.....



I'm not familiar with HAM weather. Is this a reliable source?
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We just got to close to some folks who felt the need to be embrace the chaos. Thigs were rampant where we were. The cops just bailed on the majority of the city.
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Is it okay to post those public advisories on the Western Pacific systems in NHC's format on here or should I post it on my blog? Post 892 is an example of what I mean.
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Hi all. 94L looks a lot better then it did about 7 hours ago when I was looking at it.
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966. flsky
Quoting rareaire:
I was working there. I came down with the Baptist mens group and Red Cross to relocate residents to a camp in oklahoma. I made 10 trips. Once it was cleared I went back to work in my normal capacity as an environmental engineer working impacts in various areas!


Good for you! What was the situation with the bullets?
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the first wave of "pre-cursor rains" moving through, although it has been raining steadily all PM here in southern CT it really picked up the last couple hours, but has since tapers off.
Nite all.......Watch this shift south.....

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I was working there. I came down with the Baptist mens group and Red Cross to relocate residents to a camp in oklahoma. I made 10 trips. Once it was cleared I went back to work in my normal capacity as an environmental engineer working impacts in various areas!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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