Danny still weak

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 7:32 PM GMT on August 28, 2009

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Tropical Storm Danny continues to look unhealthy, with an exposed low-level center and the main heavy thunderstorms well to the east. The center is oval instead of circular, which may portend that this center will dissipate and a new center will form under the heaviest thunderstorm activity. Danny has more of the appearance of a subtropical storm than a tropical storm on satellite imagery, and this structure will slow down any potential intensification. The amount of heavy thunderstorm activity has increased in the past few hours, though no thunderstorms have formed near the center. The latest Hurricane Hunter mission found one small spot of 45 mph surface winds between 1 - 3 pm EDT today, so Danny may barely qualify as a tropical storm. Danny's center may have begun moving to the north over the past hour, giving confidence that the storm's strongest winds and rain will stay offshore of North Carolina tonight and Saturday morning.


Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image at 3:03 pm EDT of Danny, showing the exposed swirl of clouds where Danny's center is, well displaced from the heaviest thunderstorm activity to the east. The center is oval-shaped and not circular, the sign of a weak circulation.

The forecast for Danny
With wind shear at 15 knots this afternoon, and forecast to increase to 20 knots tonight and 30 knots Saturday morning, it is unlikely Danny will be able to strengthen to more than a 50 mph tropical storm. Dry air from the upper-level low that has been keeping Danny disorganized continues to be a problem for the storm, as well. Most of the intensity forecast models continue to insist Danny will strengthen, but they have been doing a very poor job forecasting the intensity of Danny. With Danny's heavy thunderstorms all on the east side of the storm, it is unlikely that North Carolina or New England will feel tropical storm force winds from Danny when it scoots past on Saturday. Large swells from Danny creating high surf along the beaches of New England will be the primary hazard from the storm.

Massachusetts hurricane history
Two tropical storms have affected Massachusetts in the past decade, though neither of these storms brought sustained winds of tropical storm force (39 mph) to the state. Tropical Storm Beryl of 2006 just missed Cape Cod as a weak tropical storm with 45 mph winds. Beryl brought wind gusts to tropical storm force to Nantucket Island, and a 1 foot storm surge. Tropical Storm Hermine hit southeast Massachusetts on August 31, 2004, as a minimum-strength tropical storm with 40 mph winds. No land stations in Massachusetts reported tropical storm force winds during Beryl. The last time Massachusetts measured tropical storm force winds was in 1997 during that year's version of Tropical Storm Danny. Chatham recorded sustained winds of 44 mph, and Nantucket had 43 mph winds. The last time Massachusetts had hurricane force winds was in 1991 during Hurricane Bob, which hit Rhode Island as a Category 2 hurricane. Provincetown, Massachusetts measured sustained winds of 98 mph, gusting to 115 mph, and Buzzard's Bay received a 15 foot storm surge.

Invest 94L
The well-organized tropical wave (94L) mid-way between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands continues to be a threat to develop into a tropical depression in the next day or two. Water vapor satellite loops show that 94L has moistened the region surrounding it considerably today, and the storm is not ingesting as much dry air as this morning. However, visible satellite loops show only a small amount of heavy thunderstorm activity near the circulation center, which is broad and elongated from east to west. Shear is low, about 10 knots, and is expected to remain low, 5 - 10 knots, over the next five days. The waters are warm enough to support development, 27°C, and are expected to remain in the 27 - 28°C range over the next five days. It appears that 94L needs another 1 - 3 days to develop a well-formed circulation and become a tropical depression, given the favorable environment. NHC is giving 94L a medium (30 - 50% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday. Most of the models predict 94L will Be affected by two troughs of low pressure over the next week, which will pull the storm far enough north so that it will miss the Lesser Antilles Islands. It is then probable that 94L will be forced to the west again as the high pressure ridge steering the storm builds back in. The possible long-term threat to the U.S. East Coast is impossible to evaluate at this time.

I'm in New York City this weekend for my cousin's wedding, so will not be blogging again until Monday morning. In my absence, wundergound's severe storms expert, Dr. Rob Carver, will be posting in my blog Saturday and Sunday.

Jeff Masters

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Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26516
Hey Dr M - have a fun weekend!
I hear it is a complicated weather scenario that may even have touches of Danny - so STAY DRY!!!
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Tropical Storm Danny is now moving north. An anticyclone is over the storm, making some favorable conditions for the next 24 hours. After that, Danny might even get stronger... As an Extratropical Storm, An August Nor'easter! Danny will be under too much wind shear to remain tropical plus waters will be cooler up there. Danny will pass very close to North Carolina, but there won't be much effects if any. This is certainly a lopsided storm and all the stuff is to the east. Some convection might be able to develop near the center over the next 12 hours, we are already seeing some banding from both the ULL and Danny. The gradient in these two systems are causing some gusty winds in those bands. So Here's my updated forecast track for the storm. It will be an interesting weekend for sure up north.

Tropical Storm Danny Forecast Track
Photobucket
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Floodman - I wonder if Presslord is here. He might get offended by the NHC using the word "Carolinas" in their forecast...

With the modles flip flopping on 94L what are the chances the Lesser Antilles get hit with a TS or better?
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Quoting Hurricane009:
100 mph Hurricane by tomorrow?? That is not true. Maybe 100 mph hurricane by next thursday.

No he said Saturday 9/5.
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Quoting CycloneOz:
Alright, so what are we looking at here for 94L?

100 mph hurricane by Saturday 9/5, near the Antilles...westward for a time after that...

{/me pulls out calculator, enters this & that...hmmmm}

...will this be a Cat IV hurricane that hits S. Florida on 9/11?

I know I was thinking that too!I estimated that if 94L does go over the Antilles and is pushed west long enough by the ridge then it could smack Florida around 9/11!AH!:o
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Quoting AllStar17:


Uh....please READ DR. MASTERS BLOG, you have no idea what you are talking about.


I think Invest 94 in the Atlantic bears watching. I don't understand what will happen if it slows down.

Link

anyone have any thoughts? Will this cause it to miss the trough and allow it to head more west?
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The low level circ is heading into the convection now...if there's any deepening, it will be overnight. Look for the bloom of cold tops.

Interesting to get sub-model-grid weather.No NWP has a handle on this one...
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Quoting CycloneOz:
Alright, so what are we looking at here for 94L?

100 mph hurricane by Saturday, near the Antilles...westward for a time after that...

{/me pulls out calculator, enters this & that...hmmmm}

...will this be a Cat IV hurricane that hits S. Florida on 9/11?

Stop that Oz - "We need a Valium here"
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Quoting CycloneOz:
Alright, so what are we looking at here for 94L?

100 mph hurricane by Saturday, near the Antilles...westward for a time after that...

{/me pulls out calculator, enters this & that...hmmmm}

...will this be a Cat IV hurricane that hits S. Florida on 9/11?



whoa whoa whoa, slow down there
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94L has been moving along at a pretty good clip

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
28/1745 UTC 10.2N 37.9W TOO WEAK 94L
28/1145 UTC 10.2N 35.6W TOO WEAK 94L
28/0600 UTC 10.3N 34.0W TOO WEAK 94L
28/0000 UTC 9.8N 28.0W TOO WEAK 94L
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Quoting Floodman:


Stay home and watch the weather channel; there's no such thing as a "weak" one



Umm lol...

Ok whatever (that's obviously not true)
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.
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Danny could be another Hurricane Noel, except for the hurricane part.
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Danny...5:00 PM EDT Fri Aug 28
Location: 30.4°N 75.4°W
Max sustained: 40 mph
Moving: N at 6 mph
Min pressure: 1007 mb
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Let's give this non event a rest people. I agree with Funkadelic. Most of these posts talk up storm as if it will be a repeat of Andrew or Katrina combined. Advice...go to the state fair and enjoy a corndog this weekend.
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Quoting Felix2007:


I want hurricanes, but not powerful hurricanes...


Stay home and watch the weather channel; there's no such thing as a "weak" one
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Quoting Felix2007:


I want hurricanes, but not powerful hurricanes...


thats a tall order ha
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Quoting Hurricane009:
If you want tropical systems, move to NC, trust me we get a lot.


I want hurricanes, but not powerful hurricanes...
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Quoting IKE:
Not that it looks like it's going to matter much, but Danny looks headed east of north now.



I saw that in the last few frames as well. The center could be trying to co-locate itself with the convection.
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BOY FROM NC MISSING, TROPICAL STORM DANNY RESPONSIBLE.


Link




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Quoting BrockBerlin:
What are the chances at this point that 94L becomes a hurricane at some point in its life cycle?, because i've noticed that SHIPS has lowered its intensity predictions, and have also heard from other sources that shear in the mid-Atlantic is brutal, and could retard development


Uh....please READ DR. MASTERS BLOG, you have no idea what you are talking about.
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I'm in Mazatlan
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Quoting lamanzanilla:
Quoting Mazgreb: What do you think about invest 94 in the east Pacific now off SW Mexico ? Initial computer models show it might be a threat to Baja or Northwest Mexico. One model shows it going right up the Sea of Cortez. Too early to tell?

We're watching that one closely - hope it brings at least a little rain to the central Mexican coast. Very little rain this summer so far.

Amazing how almost no one on this blog cares what happens in
the EPAC. Where are you located?
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128. IKE
Not that it looks like it's going to matter much, but Danny looks headed east of north now.
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Not smart to go in the water. Even with a weak one. First (hope I'm wrong and they find him) casualty:

Link
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Quoting cyclonekid:
ALL possible models i could get.



Not enough, we need to see more! No, really good stuff.
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Quoting Hurricane009:
NEW BLOG POSTED/. Invest 94L is looking a little rough. What is happening??



Cooler than normal waters to its south.
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Mmmmmm... why is Danny so weak now?


Oh well, I was hoping for something here in NJ.

Maybe Erika.
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Anyways, Extratropical storms that were former tropical cyclones can pack a punch. So the Northeast needs to still watch Danny as it transitions, doesn't mean the winds will die down, in fact it has a good chance intensifying a bit as the NHC stated after transition. Expect Nor'easter conditions. Winds will be more spread out so even Long Island may get at least some minimal TS force winds.
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Quoting sullivanweather:



There's no ridging along the East Coast on the ECMWF model.

What that model shows, if you take a look at the dailies, is an omega-like ridge developing over the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes with a cut-off low along the East Coast. Geopotential height anomalies may be above climo but weaknesses can still exist within the overall pattern.


I did not say there was. I said earlier today that the 12z ECMWF retards the eastward propagation of the ridge. The ECMWF has been inconsistent with the time frame of this possible pattern change, which is why I expect a ridge to possibly establish by September 10th.
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Quoting reedzone:
Ok Unisys tropical weather track is no good then.. shows an extratropical storm lol.. Maybe it was transitioning at the time, I mean.. it was moving at 60 miles per hour, it takes some time for a tropical cyclone to transition.


LOL...no worries...that one was a little before our time...
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Quoting reedzone:
Ok Unisys tropical weather track is no good then.. shows an extratropical storm lol.. Maybe it was transitioning at the time, I mean.. it was moving at 60 miles per hour, it takes some time for a tropical cyclone to transition.



Always go with NOAA...lol

That's where the official #'s are.
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Ok Unisys tropical weather track is no good then.. shows an extratropical storm lol.. Maybe it was transitioning at the time, I mean.. it was moving at 60 miles per hour, it takes some time for a tropical cyclone to transition.
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116. IKE
Quoting slavp:
God I hope you are correct! LOL


I remember before the season started, I read on here from a few experts about the pattern setting up to where the main threats would be from the eastern GOM, eastward. And that is exactly what has happened...so far.
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Quoting reedzone:


Wishcasting? Just going by satellite obs. Danny is still a 40 mph. storm as I suspected it would be right before the advisory came out. Some (slight) strengthening is expected, but folks up north need to prepare for Nor'easter conditions.
reaching a little .. okay alot !!
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Quoting Funkadelic:
OMG reed will you stop wishcasting danny boy? Please it's getting annoying reading your posts about an un-organized storm. If hits SC dead on RIGHT now it will be a normal afternoon shower.


Ummm, yeah...that lasts 3 or 4 hours...with extremely high winds and 3-6 inches of rain...other than that, perfectly normal
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Quoting reedzone:


A Nor'Easter in August.. However the 1938 Long Island Express Hurricane hit Long Island as an Extratropical Storm, but had category 2-3 winds. Interesting indeed!


Why do you say it was extratropical,I saw reports of an eye 50 miles wide and nothing about it being cold core
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112. slavp
Quoting IKE:


In August!

I have a feeling this "tropical" season is going to be over with for the northern gulf coast(where I live), early.

I'll guess it's got about 6 weeks left.
God I hope you are correct! LOL
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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