Danny still weak

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 7:32 PM GMT on August 28, 2009

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Tropical Storm Danny continues to look unhealthy, with an exposed low-level center and the main heavy thunderstorms well to the east. The center is oval instead of circular, which may portend that this center will dissipate and a new center will form under the heaviest thunderstorm activity. Danny has more of the appearance of a subtropical storm than a tropical storm on satellite imagery, and this structure will slow down any potential intensification. The amount of heavy thunderstorm activity has increased in the past few hours, though no thunderstorms have formed near the center. The latest Hurricane Hunter mission found one small spot of 45 mph surface winds between 1 - 3 pm EDT today, so Danny may barely qualify as a tropical storm. Danny's center may have begun moving to the north over the past hour, giving confidence that the storm's strongest winds and rain will stay offshore of North Carolina tonight and Saturday morning.


Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image at 3:03 pm EDT of Danny, showing the exposed swirl of clouds where Danny's center is, well displaced from the heaviest thunderstorm activity to the east. The center is oval-shaped and not circular, the sign of a weak circulation.

The forecast for Danny
With wind shear at 15 knots this afternoon, and forecast to increase to 20 knots tonight and 30 knots Saturday morning, it is unlikely Danny will be able to strengthen to more than a 50 mph tropical storm. Dry air from the upper-level low that has been keeping Danny disorganized continues to be a problem for the storm, as well. Most of the intensity forecast models continue to insist Danny will strengthen, but they have been doing a very poor job forecasting the intensity of Danny. With Danny's heavy thunderstorms all on the east side of the storm, it is unlikely that North Carolina or New England will feel tropical storm force winds from Danny when it scoots past on Saturday. Large swells from Danny creating high surf along the beaches of New England will be the primary hazard from the storm.

Massachusetts hurricane history
Two tropical storms have affected Massachusetts in the past decade, though neither of these storms brought sustained winds of tropical storm force (39 mph) to the state. Tropical Storm Beryl of 2006 just missed Cape Cod as a weak tropical storm with 45 mph winds. Beryl brought wind gusts to tropical storm force to Nantucket Island, and a 1 foot storm surge. Tropical Storm Hermine hit southeast Massachusetts on August 31, 2004, as a minimum-strength tropical storm with 40 mph winds. No land stations in Massachusetts reported tropical storm force winds during Beryl. The last time Massachusetts measured tropical storm force winds was in 1997 during that year's version of Tropical Storm Danny. Chatham recorded sustained winds of 44 mph, and Nantucket had 43 mph winds. The last time Massachusetts had hurricane force winds was in 1991 during Hurricane Bob, which hit Rhode Island as a Category 2 hurricane. Provincetown, Massachusetts measured sustained winds of 98 mph, gusting to 115 mph, and Buzzard's Bay received a 15 foot storm surge.

Invest 94L
The well-organized tropical wave (94L) mid-way between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands continues to be a threat to develop into a tropical depression in the next day or two. Water vapor satellite loops show that 94L has moistened the region surrounding it considerably today, and the storm is not ingesting as much dry air as this morning. However, visible satellite loops show only a small amount of heavy thunderstorm activity near the circulation center, which is broad and elongated from east to west. Shear is low, about 10 knots, and is expected to remain low, 5 - 10 knots, over the next five days. The waters are warm enough to support development, 27°C, and are expected to remain in the 27 - 28°C range over the next five days. It appears that 94L needs another 1 - 3 days to develop a well-formed circulation and become a tropical depression, given the favorable environment. NHC is giving 94L a medium (30 - 50% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday. Most of the models predict 94L will Be affected by two troughs of low pressure over the next week, which will pull the storm far enough north so that it will miss the Lesser Antilles Islands. It is then probable that 94L will be forced to the west again as the high pressure ridge steering the storm builds back in. The possible long-term threat to the U.S. East Coast is impossible to evaluate at this time.

I'm in New York City this weekend for my cousin's wedding, so will not be blogging again until Monday morning. In my absence, wundergound's severe storms expert, Dr. Rob Carver, will be posting in my blog Saturday and Sunday.

Jeff Masters

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KMAN:

ok, i was close then... my thinking was around 9.5N - 38W..

so you agree that it's no where near the official 18Z coordinates of 11N - 36W..!!
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Quoting WeatherStudent:
Stated from the perspective of an old crow whom has NEVER EVER seen the inside of the NHC, nor will he ever DO SO, for what remains of his life. Anyways, back to the subject matter at hand on this blog this afternoon. I'm glad to hear it Taz and FM. Hey Kman, do you think that conditions are ripe out there for 94l to turn into something formidable in the long halt of things? :)
U heard that 94L's models have it coming to SFLA, what do u think of that? Im just messing with u, even though they actually do bring it to SFLA, lol
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Quoting will40:
Smart a$$ do u know how to read? welcome to iggy
what is iggy?
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Quoting Chiggy007:
KMAN:

True what you say about a broad system but nevetheless you still should be able ot make out a grneral rotation with suncg systems and all I am saying is that all the rotations are below 10N..


Take a look at the shortwave loop with the lat./lon. checked. Look at 10N 38W and watch the cloud movements. To the N of 10 they are moving to the W and to the S of 10 they are moving to the East.

The closest thing to a center is near 10N 38W IMO
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WS, you ought to go with palm trees, the goldfish dont do it for me.
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KMAN:

True what you say about a broad system but nevetheless you still should be able ot make out a grneral rotation with suncg systems and all I am saying is that all the rotations are below 10N..
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Quoting Orcasystems:


Why don't you post the whole thing on your blog.. save yourself the bother of repeating it numerous times?


spoken by yet another wise, bitter old man...spot on Grandpa...
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Quoting canesrule1:
HAHA! Danny is classified at a tropical wave, lol!

28/1745 UTC 30.1N 75.6W T1.0/2.0 DANNY
One child already missing in the surf from Danny do you think that is funny?
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Quoting WeatherStudent:


Lesson learned, thank you.


Why don't you post the whole thing on your blog.. save yourself the bother of repeating it numerous times?
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Quoting Chiggy007:
I really do NOT see any circulation what so ever above 10N with 94L...

I see lots of rotations and swirls at 9N - 38W

Anyone agree on here?


Remember that 94L still has a broad circulation. Trying to identify one area of a defined low center will be next to impossible for the time being. There are often many areas of rotation within a broad low where you have a system that has not yet consolidated a center.
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HAHA! Danny is classified at a tropical wave, lol!

28/1745 UTC 30.1N 75.6W T1.0/2.0 DANNY
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msphar:

Look at 9N - 38W or thereabouts - let me know what you see... :)
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Quoting Chiggy007:
I really do NOT see any circulation what so ever above 10N with 94L...

I see lots of rotations and swirls at 9N - 38W

Anyone agree on here?


watch the quickscat, it should reveal the LLC
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At any rate...I think what we're all trying to say here is:

No one is interested in your supposed visit to NHC...
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I don't see a COC in that mass of ITCZ clouds accompanying 94. Is there a center ? I see the movement but not any rotation.
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Quoting kmanislander:


Not really an issue of whether or not I was offended. I have heard much worse but it seems to me that knowing the rules of the road on the blog you would have been more circumspect in your choice of language. Just trying to save you a possible ban, that's all.
I go to the NHC building all the time, don't know what is so "magical" lol
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Quoting bingcrosby:
If you think about it, he used the "s" word in a context not related to bodily functions, but as a confirmation of the NHC as a great place.

Perhaps there is a gap in generational terminology because I hear young people (and future mets) say that phrase every day.....


I'm off to air brush my avatar. Looking far too old apparently .
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doing good SW
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115235
I really do NOT see any circulation what so ever above 10N with 94L...

I see lots of rotations and swirls at 9N - 38W

Anyone agree on here?
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Quoting WeatherStudent:
K, I used it as a term of excitement in regards to how my trip went today. I apologies if it offended you, sir. I have mad props and respect for you on here, KMan, you know that, don't you? Unlike certain others.


Not really an issue of whether or not I was offended. I have heard much worse but it seems to me that knowing the rules of the road on the blog you would have been more circumspect in your choice of language. Just trying to save you a possible ban, that's all.
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I am ok WS. It looks like 18Z GFS is diminishing 94L, but might regenerate in 0z as convection builds back.

BTW, how was Stormtop?
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If you think about it, he used the "s" word in a context not related to bodily functions, but as a confirmation of the NHC as a great place.

Perhaps there is a gap in generational terminology because I hear young people (and future mets) say that phrase every day.....
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232. JLPR
not much left of the wave at the coast but the one at 0w is still impressive

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Quoting WeatherStudent:
Good call there, Pressy. Apparently the golden old saying that would go, ''older and certainly wiser'', those indeed apply to a certain extent, I'd say. Well at least of course, to some and definitely not all. Anyways...G'afternoon Taz and FM. what's up my friends? :)


Should went Snoop and put some shazizzle in it. That would of really confused some people.
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Danny will produce very good surf...OH and better surfing form than Bill. With the exception of just a dozen or so spots up and down the east coast, Bill's swell was basically unridable. The long period and large size closed out a lot of breaks (especially sandbars). Unfortunately, not a lot of good point breaks on the east coast. Those that held the Bill swell were crowded. Danny will provide prolific OH surf this weekend for the young and old from FL to ME (although FL has probably already peaked). Hurricane Helene 2006 produced enormous surf north of Cape Cod, and it was not a notably strong storm. Just the right "window." With surfing and hurricanes, bigger is not necessarily better. I'll be out tomorrow AM crack of dwan somewhere in southeast NC. Expect some great fun.
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Quoting Vortex95:
Kman- In America the "S" word in slang can also mean great or amazing.


I'll take your word on that, pun intended LOL
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lol i see the drama has returned
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Even though NC has gotten off lightly of late (with no "majors" hitting) the flooding from Frances (mountains) and Floyd (coast) were extreme and caused much loss of life and property. Some communities never recovered from Floyd.
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Quoting WeatherStudent:
IDK, Kman, perhaps I guess.


Well, I was just wondering why you used the "S" word. It didn't even make sense in the context it was used in so maybe a mistake on your part ?. Perhaps you might want to delete it.
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Quoting futuremet:
Guess who I saw, folks? :)

Your friend Stormtop?


Excellent...just outstanding...
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Guess who I saw, folks? :)

Your friend Stormtop?
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Quoting Tazmanian:



are you looking for a ban???


You are also looking for one by quoting that post. Please unquote it before it is too late.
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Quoting JamesSA:


A couple of big ifs! I would like to see that thing moving a little more north but it hasn't yet.


Recent positioning suggests that it is now at 10.2N which would mean a due S of W motion for the last few hours if correct. I am waiting on the QS pass for this evening to see where it actually is.

It looks as if the satellite will catch that area.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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