Danny still weak

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 7:32 PM GMT on August 28, 2009

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Tropical Storm Danny continues to look unhealthy, with an exposed low-level center and the main heavy thunderstorms well to the east. The center is oval instead of circular, which may portend that this center will dissipate and a new center will form under the heaviest thunderstorm activity. Danny has more of the appearance of a subtropical storm than a tropical storm on satellite imagery, and this structure will slow down any potential intensification. The amount of heavy thunderstorm activity has increased in the past few hours, though no thunderstorms have formed near the center. The latest Hurricane Hunter mission found one small spot of 45 mph surface winds between 1 - 3 pm EDT today, so Danny may barely qualify as a tropical storm. Danny's center may have begun moving to the north over the past hour, giving confidence that the storm's strongest winds and rain will stay offshore of North Carolina tonight and Saturday morning.


Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image at 3:03 pm EDT of Danny, showing the exposed swirl of clouds where Danny's center is, well displaced from the heaviest thunderstorm activity to the east. The center is oval-shaped and not circular, the sign of a weak circulation.

The forecast for Danny
With wind shear at 15 knots this afternoon, and forecast to increase to 20 knots tonight and 30 knots Saturday morning, it is unlikely Danny will be able to strengthen to more than a 50 mph tropical storm. Dry air from the upper-level low that has been keeping Danny disorganized continues to be a problem for the storm, as well. Most of the intensity forecast models continue to insist Danny will strengthen, but they have been doing a very poor job forecasting the intensity of Danny. With Danny's heavy thunderstorms all on the east side of the storm, it is unlikely that North Carolina or New England will feel tropical storm force winds from Danny when it scoots past on Saturday. Large swells from Danny creating high surf along the beaches of New England will be the primary hazard from the storm.

Massachusetts hurricane history
Two tropical storms have affected Massachusetts in the past decade, though neither of these storms brought sustained winds of tropical storm force (39 mph) to the state. Tropical Storm Beryl of 2006 just missed Cape Cod as a weak tropical storm with 45 mph winds. Beryl brought wind gusts to tropical storm force to Nantucket Island, and a 1 foot storm surge. Tropical Storm Hermine hit southeast Massachusetts on August 31, 2004, as a minimum-strength tropical storm with 40 mph winds. No land stations in Massachusetts reported tropical storm force winds during Beryl. The last time Massachusetts measured tropical storm force winds was in 1997 during that year's version of Tropical Storm Danny. Chatham recorded sustained winds of 44 mph, and Nantucket had 43 mph winds. The last time Massachusetts had hurricane force winds was in 1991 during Hurricane Bob, which hit Rhode Island as a Category 2 hurricane. Provincetown, Massachusetts measured sustained winds of 98 mph, gusting to 115 mph, and Buzzard's Bay received a 15 foot storm surge.

Invest 94L
The well-organized tropical wave (94L) mid-way between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands continues to be a threat to develop into a tropical depression in the next day or two. Water vapor satellite loops show that 94L has moistened the region surrounding it considerably today, and the storm is not ingesting as much dry air as this morning. However, visible satellite loops show only a small amount of heavy thunderstorm activity near the circulation center, which is broad and elongated from east to west. Shear is low, about 10 knots, and is expected to remain low, 5 - 10 knots, over the next five days. The waters are warm enough to support development, 27°C, and are expected to remain in the 27 - 28°C range over the next five days. It appears that 94L needs another 1 - 3 days to develop a well-formed circulation and become a tropical depression, given the favorable environment. NHC is giving 94L a medium (30 - 50% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday. Most of the models predict 94L will Be affected by two troughs of low pressure over the next week, which will pull the storm far enough north so that it will miss the Lesser Antilles Islands. It is then probable that 94L will be forced to the west again as the high pressure ridge steering the storm builds back in. The possible long-term threat to the U.S. East Coast is impossible to evaluate at this time.

I'm in New York City this weekend for my cousin's wedding, so will not be blogging again until Monday morning. In my absence, wundergound's severe storms expert, Dr. Rob Carver, will be posting in my blog Saturday and Sunday.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting iceman55:
El Nino.very weak

Trade winds getting ready to relax in correlation with a negative NAO.
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Quoting JLPR:


wow =O
I wasn't expecting such a good looking circulation

so all it really needs is some convection to get going


The convection is there, just not over the center LOL. Easterly shear at work
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Quoting iceman55:
El Nino.very weak


Soon to be moderate El Nino.
Member Since: March 19, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1421
308. JLPR
Quoting serialteg:


you downcaster lol ;D


xD after looking at that quickscat I think 94L is close to TD status
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Quoting IKE:
KMAN...have you gotten any rain lately...this summer? I'm serious...I haven't seen much in the NW Caribbean all summer!
Here in Puerto Rico in the north east caribbean we been having an above average rain fall season this summer.
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Quoting JLPR:


wow =O
I wasn't expecting such a good looking circulation

so all it really needs is some convection to get going


Beauty is only convection deep...
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305. JLPR
Quoting kmanislander:


Actually it looks like 11N 35 W !!

See QS pass just downloaded

QS


wow =O
I wasn't expecting such a good looking circulation

so all it really needs is some convection to get going
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304. P451
Danny and the East Coast: Convection actually near Danny's East side. Probably the closest convection has been near Danny's center in DAYS. Whether or not it wraps around is a different story.

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Quoting Dakster:


Ouch. I don't think anything is going to push through that ridge!


Within two days, we will know if this pattern will establish or not.
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think if you are going to see development on this one 94 it will be around 14 n.
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Quoting serialteg:


Plenty of 30kt barbs and some west ones as well. Next TD could be announced very, very soon.


You wouldn't think so from the sat images though. This might be the year for ragged systems.
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Quoting JLPR:


94L needs a great D-max or it might not develop for awhile


you downcaster lol ;D
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Quoting futuremet:
Massive 1030MB ridge over the east coast.


Ouch. I don't think anything is going to push through that ridge!
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Quoting kmanislander:


Actually it looks like 11N 35 W !!

See QS pass just downloaded

QS


Plenty of 30kt barbs and some west ones as well. Next TD could be announced very, very soon.
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296. IKE
Quoting kmanislander:


Hi Ike. I wish. Driest year on record for us !

http://www.caycompass.com/cgi-bin/CFPnews.cgi?ID=10385031


And I've had around 20 inches since July 1st.

Yeah...it's El Nino.
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i think we may end up with olny 4 name storms this year wish is not too bad if we dont get any more storms in SEP i think we may see one more storm may be two at the most but i think thats all the names will see all so i think 94L has done it it was going too do
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115341
Quoting P451:
94L: Strong convection that too many are focusing on as the actual wave is at 39-44W -- Low center is at 10.5N 36W with the wave axis stretching northward to 19N.

The Low is put on the final frame of the loop.



2PM TROPICAL WAVE WAS ADJUSTED TO ALONG 36W BASED ON THE 1011 MB
SURFACE LOW POSITION. THE LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 10.5N36W. THE
SYSTEM IS MOVING W NEAR 20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THIS
WAVE/LOW COINCIDES WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC
CURVATURE FOCUSED AROUND THE SURFACE LOW AND IS EMBEDDED IN AN
AREA OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE AS INDICATED BY PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS W OF TE WAVE FROM 8N-12N
BETWEEN 39W-42W. SMALL CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 11N-15N BETWEEN 34W-39W.



Actually it looks like 11N 35 W !!

See QS pass just downloaded

QS
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Quoting presslord:
At any rate...I think what we're all trying to say here is:

No one is interested in your supposed visit to NHC...
I'm glad that Weather Students continues with his interest in meteorology, is so nice to see ayoung man like you trying to learn and improve your knowledge I bet it was a great experience for as young man your age to visit those NHC facilities. Congratulations !
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291. JLPR
Quoting Tazmanian:



i think they are planing on droping 94L soon if not sooner


94L needs a great D-max or it might not develop for awhile
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Quoting Chiggy007:
KMAN:

True what you say about a broad system but nevetheless you still should be able ot make out a grneral rotation with suncg systems and all I am saying is that all the rotations are below 10N..



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Massive 1030MB ridge over the east coast.

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Quoting WeatherStudent:


Are ya saying it's RIP then, Ike? let's hope so.


ws email me at jrdj5806@comcast.net
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287. JLPR
Quoting P451:
94L: Strong convection that too many are focusing on as the actual wave is at 39-44W -- Low center is at 10.5N 36W with the wave axis stretching northward to 19N.

The Low is put on the final frame of the loop.



2PM TROPICAL WAVE WAS ADJUSTED TO ALONG 36W BASED ON THE 1011 MB
SURFACE LOW POSITION. THE LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 10.5N36W. THE
SYSTEM IS MOVING W NEAR 20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THIS
WAVE/LOW COINCIDES WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC
CURVATURE FOCUSED AROUND THE SURFACE LOW AND IS EMBEDDED IN AN
AREA OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE AS INDICATED BY PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS W OF TE WAVE FROM 8N-12N
BETWEEN 39W-42W. SMALL CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 11N-15N BETWEEN 34W-39W.



?? you are using 2pm positions with 6pm photos?
that doesn't add up lol xD
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Quoting IKE:
KMAN...have you gotten any rain lately...this summer? I'm serious...I haven't seen much in the NW Caribbean all summer!
i know u didn't ask me but no, not very much at all.Rain So Far This Year 14.91 in. This is from the local website so i don't know how accurate it is.
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Quoting IKE:


Also....the GFDL and HWRF did not run 12Z runs on 94L....



i think they are planing on droping 94L soon if not sooner
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115341
One thing for sure, I don't see any Northward component to 94 path so far. It seems to be drifting a bit South of due West. The mass of clouds behind its front reminds me of the early stages of Bill's formation, perhaps some generalized rotation in that area.
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Quoting IKE:


Also....the GFDL and HWRF did not run 12Z runs on 94L....


Are ya saying it's RIP then, Ike? let's hope so.
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282. P451
94L: Strong convection that too many are focusing on as the actual wave is at 39-44W -- Low center is at 10.5N 36W with the wave axis stretching northward to 19N.

The Low is put on the final frame of the loop.



2PM TROPICAL WAVE WAS ADJUSTED TO ALONG 36W BASED ON THE 1011 MB
SURFACE LOW POSITION. THE LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 10.5N36W. THE
SYSTEM IS MOVING W NEAR 20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THIS
WAVE/LOW COINCIDES WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC
CURVATURE FOCUSED AROUND THE SURFACE LOW AND IS EMBEDDED IN AN
AREA OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE AS INDICATED BY PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS W OF TE WAVE FROM 8N-12N
BETWEEN 39W-42W. SMALL CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 11N-15N BETWEEN 34W-39W.

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281. IKE
Quoting Relix:


That seems a bit far-fetched... 94L is pretty nice ATM.


Also....the GFDL and HWRF did not run 12Z runs on 94L....
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OUCH FM, what might that mean for 94L in the long halt of things?
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Quoting canesrule1:
what is iggy?


Short for Ignatowski...
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I'm off to supper. Be back on later on tonight y'all.
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Quoting IKE:
KMAN...have you gotten any rain lately...this summer? I'm serious...I haven't seen much in the NW Caribbean all summer!


Hi Ike. I wish. Driest year on record for us !

http://www.caycompass.com/cgi-bin/CFPnews.cgi?ID=10385031
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Significant trough erosion by September 5th



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275. JLPR
Quoting Chiggy007:
Weatherstudent:

Please stick to discussion of tropical nature!

thx


AMEN to that =]
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Quoting canesrule1:
what is iggy?


I would imagine "iggy" is ignore list. I would say the same for him, but he's already on mine. Getting tired of people who deride serious bloggers on the damaging effects of these storms. Yes these are tragedies that do NOT go unnoticed here, but this is a technical conversation. There are many here who switch to recovery efforts as soon as the technical discussion is over.

Myself, I'm still wishing for rain and can't seem to catch a break. That nice moisture that moved up out of GOM just went poof over my house.
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Quoting Chiggy007:
KMAN:

ok, i was close then... my thinking was around 9.5N - 38W..

so you agree that it's no where near the official 18Z coordinates of 11N - 36W..!!


I think it is West of 36 but the coordinates for a system that far out that has not yet developed would have been posted many hours ago. I would expect new coordinates to come up any time now.

11N looks to be a little N to me but who can say given the overall state of the system.
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271. JLPR
94Ls broad circulation on the
850mb(surface)


and 500mb(mid levels)
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270. Relix
Quoting IKE:
18Z GFS losses 94L by the first of next week and shows nothing really in the Atlantic basin beyond that.


That seems a bit far-fetched... 94L is pretty nice ATM.
Member Since: August 3, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2741
nhc? drove by it a bunch never went in. i remember the dish blew off the building 1992 tgif
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Afternoon Ike. The end of the season there, perhaps my friend?
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Weatherstudent:

Please stick to discussion of tropical nature!

thx
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266. IKE
KMAN...have you gotten any rain lately...this summer? I'm serious...I haven't seen much in the NW Caribbean all summer!
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Good Afternoon

Negative NAO


Member Since: March 19, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1421
Hey there, CaneRule. I know they do. FIU is going to have it's first football game of the season against UM on Sept. 25th, 2009, are you ready for it, my friend? Go Panthers!!!! yeah baby.
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263. IKE
18Z GFS losses 94L by the first of next week and shows nothing really in the Atlantic basin beyond that.
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KMAN:

ok, i was close then... my thinking was around 9.5N - 38W..

so you agree that it's no where near the official 18Z coordinates of 11N - 36W..!!
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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