Danny still weak

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 7:32 PM GMT on August 28, 2009

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Tropical Storm Danny continues to look unhealthy, with an exposed low-level center and the main heavy thunderstorms well to the east. The center is oval instead of circular, which may portend that this center will dissipate and a new center will form under the heaviest thunderstorm activity. Danny has more of the appearance of a subtropical storm than a tropical storm on satellite imagery, and this structure will slow down any potential intensification. The amount of heavy thunderstorm activity has increased in the past few hours, though no thunderstorms have formed near the center. The latest Hurricane Hunter mission found one small spot of 45 mph surface winds between 1 - 3 pm EDT today, so Danny may barely qualify as a tropical storm. Danny's center may have begun moving to the north over the past hour, giving confidence that the storm's strongest winds and rain will stay offshore of North Carolina tonight and Saturday morning.


Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image at 3:03 pm EDT of Danny, showing the exposed swirl of clouds where Danny's center is, well displaced from the heaviest thunderstorm activity to the east. The center is oval-shaped and not circular, the sign of a weak circulation.

The forecast for Danny
With wind shear at 15 knots this afternoon, and forecast to increase to 20 knots tonight and 30 knots Saturday morning, it is unlikely Danny will be able to strengthen to more than a 50 mph tropical storm. Dry air from the upper-level low that has been keeping Danny disorganized continues to be a problem for the storm, as well. Most of the intensity forecast models continue to insist Danny will strengthen, but they have been doing a very poor job forecasting the intensity of Danny. With Danny's heavy thunderstorms all on the east side of the storm, it is unlikely that North Carolina or New England will feel tropical storm force winds from Danny when it scoots past on Saturday. Large swells from Danny creating high surf along the beaches of New England will be the primary hazard from the storm.

Massachusetts hurricane history
Two tropical storms have affected Massachusetts in the past decade, though neither of these storms brought sustained winds of tropical storm force (39 mph) to the state. Tropical Storm Beryl of 2006 just missed Cape Cod as a weak tropical storm with 45 mph winds. Beryl brought wind gusts to tropical storm force to Nantucket Island, and a 1 foot storm surge. Tropical Storm Hermine hit southeast Massachusetts on August 31, 2004, as a minimum-strength tropical storm with 40 mph winds. No land stations in Massachusetts reported tropical storm force winds during Beryl. The last time Massachusetts measured tropical storm force winds was in 1997 during that year's version of Tropical Storm Danny. Chatham recorded sustained winds of 44 mph, and Nantucket had 43 mph winds. The last time Massachusetts had hurricane force winds was in 1991 during Hurricane Bob, which hit Rhode Island as a Category 2 hurricane. Provincetown, Massachusetts measured sustained winds of 98 mph, gusting to 115 mph, and Buzzard's Bay received a 15 foot storm surge.

Invest 94L
The well-organized tropical wave (94L) mid-way between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands continues to be a threat to develop into a tropical depression in the next day or two. Water vapor satellite loops show that 94L has moistened the region surrounding it considerably today, and the storm is not ingesting as much dry air as this morning. However, visible satellite loops show only a small amount of heavy thunderstorm activity near the circulation center, which is broad and elongated from east to west. Shear is low, about 10 knots, and is expected to remain low, 5 - 10 knots, over the next five days. The waters are warm enough to support development, 27°C, and are expected to remain in the 27 - 28°C range over the next five days. It appears that 94L needs another 1 - 3 days to develop a well-formed circulation and become a tropical depression, given the favorable environment. NHC is giving 94L a medium (30 - 50% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday. Most of the models predict 94L will Be affected by two troughs of low pressure over the next week, which will pull the storm far enough north so that it will miss the Lesser Antilles Islands. It is then probable that 94L will be forced to the west again as the high pressure ridge steering the storm builds back in. The possible long-term threat to the U.S. East Coast is impossible to evaluate at this time.

I'm in New York City this weekend for my cousin's wedding, so will not be blogging again until Monday morning. In my absence, wundergound's severe storms expert, Dr. Rob Carver, will be posting in my blog Saturday and Sunday.

Jeff Masters

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612. Skyepony (Mod)
Danny is having his COC shoved back under his convection thanks to the trough coming off FL. This should initially strengthen him, til the trough interacts. Then expecting some baroclonic strengthening..which also eventually forces him to go extratropical, probably late tomorrow. I expect to see him a much stronger storm with a lower pressure after he goes extra tropical & gets over the gulf stream then what he is now. CMC makes a pretty good picture other than..maybe not quite that low of pressure.
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The CPHC was saying "Tropical development unlikely" for the last few days until today, and look at it now. It developed into a TD.
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Quoting kanc2001:


look at the ULL in GA!! that thing looks like a "landcane" It looks like it would eat Danny boy


That would be a thingamabobbercane? In Dr. M. speak. Lol
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Quoting Nolehead:
603. tornadofan 1:25 AM GMT on August 29, 2009
Quoting IKE:


LOL...exactly.


Any word - did that event yesterday flood the road to Ft. Pickens? Doesn't take too much to do that anymore.



i don't believe so...no surf for sure so no erosion that way and tha rain was more to the north of town...



Thanks. I did read that the original 90L flooded it.
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94L RIP thats the theme tonight, LOL Dpass and Sat images doesn't show that.
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000
WHXX01 KMIA 290108
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
0108 UTC SAT AUG 29 2009

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO CPHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

CENTRAL PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE TWO (CP022009) 20090829 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
090829 0000 090829 1200 090830 0000 090830 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.9N 177.5W 15.2N 179.1W 15.7N 178.9E 16.2N 176.8E
BAMD 14.9N 177.5W 15.4N 178.7W 16.0N 179.9W 16.6N 178.8E
BAMM 14.9N 177.5W 15.3N 178.8W 15.8N 179.7E 16.3N 178.2E

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
090831 0000 090901 0000 090902 0000 090903 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 16.8N 174.8E 17.8N 171.6E 18.6N 169.7E 19.4N 169.0E
BAMD 17.0N 177.7E 17.3N 176.1E 17.6N 175.3E 19.4N 174.6E
BAMM 16.6N 176.6E 17.2N 174.2E 17.7N 172.9E 19.1N 172.0E

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 14.9N LONCUR = 177.5W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 6KT
LATM12 = 14.7N LONM12 = 176.3W DIRM12 = 279DEG SPDM12 = 7KT
LATM24 = 14.4N LONM24 = 174.5W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 25NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 125NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$



95C is now TD 2C
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5089 Comments: 114051
603. tornadofan 1:25 AM GMT on August 29, 2009
Quoting IKE:


LOL...exactly.


Any word - did that event yesterday flood the road to Ft. Pickens? Doesn't take too much to do that anymore.



i don't believe so...no surf for sure so no erosion that way and tha rain was more to the north of town...

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605. VARob
Quoting kanc2001:


look at the ULL in GA!! that thing looks like a "landcane" It looks like it would eat Danny boy


I think Danny is feeling the effects of the ULL in Ga. thus the NE movement but I think the ull will pass him by and he will continue on the nw movement after that happens.
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604. IKE
Quoting tornadofan:


Any word - did that event yesterday flood the road to Ft. Pickens? Doesn't take too much to do that anymore.


I'm not sure. I'm 70 miles east of Pensacola. Maybe a Pensacola blogger is on here still and can answer that for you.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting IKE:


LOL...exactly.


Any word - did that event yesterday flood the road to Ft. Pickens? Doesn't take too much to do that anymore. (meaning a mini-surge)
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Quoting prtr4192:
C:\Users\Jeff\Pictures\at196406.gif

in his blog dr masters talked about whatever you want to call 94l being pulled to the northwest then possibly being pushed back west
(hope this picture shows ) would this be the same type of track ??
i am talking about dora 1964


That could very well be what he meant. Especially if the high is not very strong and another trough erodes it after its westward push. Which is a distinct possibility this year. Good call. Looks closer to what I gather he was saying than the other tracks posted. Even by me. Lol. But of course its still wait and see. :)
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601. IKE
Quoting tornadofan:


Wow - didn't know it was that windy. More impressive than OBX will get from Danny.


LOL...exactly.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting IKE:


Got 1-2 inches at my house yesterday afternoon.

I see the Pensacola airport got 3.18 inches yesterday and a wind gust to 44 mph.


Wow - didn't know it was that windy. More impressive than OBX will get from Danny.
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Quoting Patrap:




look at the ULL in GA!! that thing looks like a "landcane" It looks like it would eat Danny boy
Member Since: August 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 181
598. IKE
Quoting tornadofan:
Ike - I saw Pensacola had record rains yesterday. Did you get your share?


Got 1-2 inches at my house yesterday afternoon.

I see the Pensacola airport got 3.18 inches yesterday and a wind gust to 44 mph.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Evening all.

Tried to get online earlier today (stayed later than usual at work) but without success.

I don't see 94L as being a write-off just yet. I'm actually more worried that it ISN'T looking so well right now. A more developed storm at this point would have had a much greater chance of being steered north at a relatively earlier point, thereby missing the Caribbean and developing the potential for "fish stormdom".

OTOH, storms like 94L, ones with a fairly distinct low but a slow growth rate, tend to get further west and thereby pose a greater threat to the islands and later the mainland of the Americas. That is, of course, if they do develop in the first place.

Given current conditions, I don't see much to hold 94L back if it gets its act together.

But we shall see what we shall see.
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Yep - Scottie beamed Cantore over to Cape Cod, when Danny started moving northeast.
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Ike - I saw Pensacola had record rains yesterday. Did you get your share?
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I think this blog should be a live blog because it gets annoying when you have to refresh the page every 20 seconds.
Member Since: May 16, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 684
592. IKE
Quoting hunkerdown:
Wasnt he on the OBX earlier ?


He may have been. I just started watching TWC.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting kanc2001:
three seperate systems merging off NE, making of a perfect storm?


Doubt it - Danny is way too wimpy when compared with "Grace" of the perfect storm.
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590. IKE
Quoting CandiBarr:
question for ya IKE,

Earlier a more knowledgeable blogger said something about the models run being bad because of the coc location was plugged in wrong. Don’t quote me, I think it was atom aggie. though I cant remember exactly who or if I am even close to having to perceived this correctly.

But if that is the case wouldnt they have waited till after quick scan to run the models?

thanks :-)




They should still be running GFDL and HWRF model runs.

Most of the time when they quit running those models it's bad news for an invest. I've seen them stop running models and then start again, so it's not RIP yet.

I think the answer to your question is...no.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
three seperate systems merging off NE, making of a perfect storm?
Member Since: August 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 181
Quoting tornadofan:


Next thing they'll say, "Is Danny RIP?"
I would say it is close to it...
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Quoting StormFreakyisher:
hunkerdown, they had a big phrase on the screen saying "A Naked Storm?".


Next thing they'll say, "Is Danny RIP?"
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C:\Users\Jeff\Pictures\at196406.gif

in his blog dr masters talked about whatever you want to call 94l being pulled to the northwest then possibly being pushed back west
(hope this picture shows ) would this be the same type of track ??
i am talking about dora 1964
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Quoting StormFreakyisher:
hunkerdown, they had a big phrase on the screen saying "A Naked Storm?".
exactly what I am saying...the convection is not part of or attached to the COC of Danny.
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2515
hunkerdown, they had a big phrase on the screen saying "A Naked Storm?".
Member Since: May 16, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 684
Quoting IKE:
TWC...."Is Danny a Naked Storm?" Tropical round table coming up!

Cantore is at Cape Cod,MA.
Wasnt he on the OBX earlier ?
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2515
Looks like a late fall/winter satellite shot if you live in New England

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hi

has danny started or turn north yet?
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579. IKE
TWC...."Is Danny a Naked Storm?" Tropical round table coming up!

Cantore is at Cape Cod,MA.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
I tried to make a public advisory on Krovanh in the Western Pacific with the National Hurricane Center's format and this was the result.

NOTE: This is not a real product and should not be treated as one. I just wanted to try to make a Western Pacific public advisory easy to understand like the NHC's public advisories.




UNOFFICIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
TROPICAL STORM KROVANH (12W) ADVISORY NUMBER 4
500 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2009

...TROPICAL STORM KROVANH A LITTLE STRONGER...

INTERESTS IN SOUTHEASTERN JAPAN SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
KROVANH.

AT 200 PM EDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KROVANH WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.8 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 148.0 DEGREES
EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 390 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CHICHIJIMA,JAPAN AND
895 MILES SOUTHEAST OF TOKYO,JAPAN.

KROVANH IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH AT 13 MPH...21 KM/HR. A GRADUAL TURN
TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST,THEN TO THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE CENTER OF KROVANH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NEAR THE
SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF JAPAN BY MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND
KROVANH IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TYPHOON BY SUNDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 65 MILES...105 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB...29.42 INCHES.

...SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...24.8N 148.0E...200 PM
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 13 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB

THIS IS NOT AN OFFICIAL PRODUCT. LOCATION, WINDS, MOVEMENT, AND FORECAST
ARE FROM THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER. PRESSURE WAS FROM THE JAPAN
METEOROLOGY AGENCY 18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS. THIS WAS NOT INTENDED TO BE OFFICIAL
AND SHOULD NOT BE TREATED AS SUCH.
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Quoting StormFreakyisher:
You guys watching TWC?Its showing on the map Danny and an arrow pointing towrads the convection saying thats not Danny.
I believe what they were trying to say is the convection is not the COC of Danny. That blow up is removed to the east of the COC.
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Quoting adjusterx:


Who is it and who's on first?

Jim Cantore and Alexandria Steele
Member Since: May 16, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 684
The question is, "Will 94L survive?"
I think, "probably."
"Where will 94L go?"
I have no idea.
Rudimentary.
Goodnight.
The crows are being plucked as we speak.
(They are better after a day in the fridge.)
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11047
question for ya IKE,

Earlier a more knowledgeable blogger said something about the models run being bad because of the coc location was plugged in wrong. Don’t quote me, I think it was atom aggie. though I cant remember exactly who or if I am even close to having to perceived this correctly.

But if that is the case wouldnt they have waited till after quick scan to run the models?

thanks :-)


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So now TWC confirmed that the convection is not part of Danny.Can't wait to hear the NHC's side of this.
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Quoting StormFreakyisher:
You guys watching TWC?Its showing on the map Danny and an arrow pointing towrads the convection saying thats not Danny.


Who is it and who's on first?
All this RIP talk reminds me of this video when the HH flying into Rita. I swear right around 2 minutes in they said a couple days ago we were calling this tropical trash. Lol. I may have heard it wrong but these things surprise even the pros sometimes. Will 94l develop? No idea. Hope you enjoy. :)

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You guys watching TWC?Its showing on the map Danny and an arrow pointing towrads the convection saying thats not Danny.
Member Since: May 16, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 684
Quoting canesrule1:
Thanks!

Well Defined circulation:

some barbs indicating 30+ knot winds
Quoting zoomiami:


Boy that's equivocation in its best form...lol


You know the old story about a legal opinion right ?. On the one this but on the other that LOL
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15671
Quoting kmanislander:


Here
Thanks!

Well Defined circulation:

Quoting Chicklit:
Kman has his usual, "we'll see what it looks like past 60 remark." Very clever.
Shear map isn't showing a lot of obstruction.



Ouch !!

I say that because that is at least 2 or 3 days out. First, I want to see if my initial thinking is right.

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Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11047
Well as long as I see thunderstorms still available and it has been persistant.It is normal for this to decrease in shower activity at night.Just wait till morning guys.I still hear 94L breathing silently if not the defibrillator will start him up tomorrow which is DMAX.
Member Since: May 16, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 684
Quoting tornadofan:


But, that doesn't look impressive.


Its not supposed to look impressive yet. Its DMIN and shear has JUST let up. Give it another 24 hours.
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562. IKE
Quoting K8eCane:



oh my gosh
this is a WEATHER BLOG
not a mental health center


LOL...you would think we said their spouse/girlfriend, looked ugly.

It's a blob of clouds.....
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858

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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.