Danny weakens; not likely to become a hurricane
Tropical Storm Danny has weakened. Data from the Hurricane Hunters between 2 - 3 pm EDT showed top winds of just 40 - 45 mph at the surface. Satellite intensity estimates of Danny's strength have also declined since this morning. Danny's satellite appearance is pretty unconventional, and the storm doesn't look much like a tropical cyclone. The low level circulation center is exposed to view, with the heaviest thunderstorms lying several hundred miles east of the center. The center has remained nearly stationary the past four hours, and has grown less distinct. It is possible that a new center will form up to 100 miles to the east, in the region with the heaviest thunderstorm activity. Danny has already undergone several center relocations over the past 12 hours.
Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image at 3:17 pm EDT of Danny, showing the exposed swirl of clouds where Danny's center is, well displaced from the heaviest thunderstorm activity to the east.
The forecast for Danny
There's not much new to report from the latest set of 12Z model runs for Danny. The models have pretty much maintained their previous forecast, calling for Danny to intensify to a Category 1 hurricane by Saturday morning, and pass close to both Cape Hatteras, NC, and Cape Cod, MA. Given that the models did not correctly forecast Danny's current struggles, I believe it is unlikely that Danny will attain hurricane strength. Dry air from the upper-level low that has been keeping Danny disorganized continues to be a problem for the storm, despite the presence of moderate wind shear of 10 - 15 knots. Danny only has about 24 hours of relatively favorable wind shear left, and that is probably not enough time to intensify into a hurricane. By Friday night, a trough of low pressure will approach the U.S. East Coast and bring high wind shear of 20 - 35 knots. Danny will be close enough to this trough that the trough may be able to feed energy to Danny as the trough converts Danny to an extratropical storm. As a result, Danny may not weaken only slowly. A landfall in Cape Cod, eastern Maine, or Nova Scotia as a tropical storm with 45 - 55 mph winds is a reasonable forecast.
Figure 3. Tropical wave 94L off the coast of Africa.
Invest 94L off the coast of Africa
A well-organized tropical wave (94L) lies a few hundred miles southwest of the Cape Verdes Islands, near the coast of Africa. This disturbance continues to look more organized on satellite imagery. Shear is low, about 10 knots, and waters are warm enough to support continued development. The dry Saharan Air Layer is relatively limited in extent and intensity, so dry air may have only a small inhibiting effect on the wave. Expect continued development of this wave as it moves westward over the next few days. NHC is giving this system a medium (30 - 50% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday. This system is moving rather slowly, 10 - 15 mph. The GFDL and HWRF models both predict 94L will be a Category 1 hurricane five days from now. These models also predict that 94L will take a significant northward jog 3 - 5 days from now, in response to a strong trough of low pressure passing to the north (this is the same trough of low pressure that will be recurving Danny out to sea).
I'll have an update Friday morning.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Danny is not looking good. Any chance for depression at 5pm or 11pm for 94L?
I guess water is wet and the sky is blue.
De nada...
Afternoon! Yeah, there is some slight turning evident, but not enough to warrant depression status by any means. Getting there, though.
Note former 93L is already orange....
-- Changed Discussion --TROPICAL STORM DANNY NORTHEAST OF THE BAHAMAS TONIGHT WILL TRACK
NORTHWEST TOWARD THE UNITED STATES COAST THROUGH FRIDAY...TURN
NORTHEAST OFF CAPE HATTERAS FRIDAY NIGHT...AND MOVE WELL NORTH
OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION
FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND MOVE SLOWLY THROUGH
THE AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL STALL OFF THE
COAST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --EFFECTS OF TS DANNY WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS FCST PERIOD. HAVE SENT
PRELIMINARY FORECAST PRODUCTS FOR NOW PENDING ANY NECESSARY
UPDATES AFTER NHC COORDINATION CALL.
CENTER OF DANNY HAD BECOME EXPOSED WEST OF THE MAIN CONVECTION
EARLIER TODAY BUT DENSE OVERCAST NOW OBSCURING THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION. TRACK GUIDANCE HAS GRADUALLY COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT WILL A SLIGHT NUDGE TO THE WEST NOTED IN THE LATEST
MODEL RUNS. DANNY STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE
THAT THE MAIN IMPACTS WILL LARGELY BE FELT ALONG COASTAL AREAS
AND IN PARTICULAR THE OUTER BANKS.
EXPECT INCREASING WIND AND PCPN CHCS AS DANNY APPROACHES THE SE
NC COAST FRIDAY. LIKELY TO SEE TROPICAL DOWNPOURS ALONG THE COAST
WITH GRADUALLY DECREASING PCPN CHCS AND INTENSITY INLAND. MAIN
BRUNT OF THE STORM WILL BE FELT FROM LATE FRIDAY AFTN INTO FRIDAY
EVE AS DANNY MAKES ITS CLOSEST PASS TO CAPE HATTERAS THEN SHUD SEE
DECREASING PCPN CHCS EARLY SAT MORNING AS DANNY TRACKS NE OF THE VA
COAST. CUD BE A TIGHT GRADIENT WRT TO QPF AMOUNTS AVERAGING ABOUT
AN INCH (WITH HIGHER LOCALIZED TOTALS) FOR OUTER BANKS TO LESS
THAN ONE HALF INCH INLAND. SUBSIDENCE BEHIND DANNY SHUD LIMIT PCPN
CHCS SAT AFTN.-- End Changed Discussion --
Impressive pull of moisture from a ways away...reminds me a bit of Bill!
I saw that...minimal chance of the soCal hit but it would make for an interesting season; as soon as that would happen something would come rub on SEFL.
How you today, Conch?
Might be a surprise player this weekend. Might not be a cane but still a player.
link?
94L and former 93L
So, I guess this one will be an east coast or fish storm as well?
No. It has no defined surface circulation as of now.
dont be rubbing that crystal ball yet ..flood.
What does that mean?
Henri was to Gloria back in 1985.
Want some good old John Hope flashbacks to The Weather Channel circa 1985?
Here is a link: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PyWcNZyAIgE&feature=related
Amazing how technology has changed, but we are still flying in the dark.
I never said anything negative about 94L.
As far as Danny...looks terrible.
How long are you going to give it a shot of doing anything significant?
Doin good Flood...seriously thinking about taking a nap,or watching tivo'ed mosterquest...I am torn...6 on 1
Your lips to God's ears!
Bodes well for my Giants/Jets game Sat night!
alex, ophelia, on and on ... interesting systems like this always get discounted and then we end up getting strong hits here "unexpectedly".
we're all watching closely here ... clouds are spinning over warm water ... always makes us nervous :)
Never discount a tropical system; conditions can change rapidly and intensification and course changes can be pretty drastic
I think I'd golf better after a round...
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