Tropical Storm Danny likely to be named today

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:25 PM GMT on August 26, 2009

Share this Blog
3
+

First-light satellite images of the tropical wave (92L) a few hundred miles northeast of the Bahama Islands show that the system has developed an organized surface circulation, and 92L will likely be named Tropical Storm Danny later today. This morning's QuikSCAT pass confirms the presence of a surface circulation, and the satellite saw top winds of 50 mph in a cluster of thunderstorms well east of the center. Wind shear has dropped to the moderate range, 10 - 15 knots. The upper-level low 92L is moving underneath has plenty of dry air in it, and the upper low is injecting this dry air into 92L's west side, keeping and heavy thunderstorm activity from developing on that side. The Hurricane Hunters are in 92L, and have found surface winds up to 57 mph so far this morning. NHC continues to give 92L a high (greater than 50% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Thursday afternoon.


Figure 1. Water vapor satellite image from 8:15 am EDT 8/26/09 showing dry air associated with an upper-level low pressure system to the west of 92L's center of circulation. Image credit: NOAA/SSD.

The forecast for 92L
As 92L continues to plow through the upper low, the low will weaken, and wind shear is expected to decline to the low range, 5 - 10 knots, by tonight. However, the upper-level low will continue to dump dry, cold air into 92L through Thursday afternoon, slowing down development. By Thursday night, when 92L should be several hundred miles off the coast of northern Florida, the upper-level low may be weak enough and far enough away that 92L will find itself in a region with light upper level anticyclonic winds, which would favor more rapid development. Most of the intensity models, including the GFDL, HWRF, and SHIPS model, forecast that 92L will become a hurricane by Friday. However, this favorable environment will not last long, since a strong trough of low pressure will be approaching the U.S. East Coast on Friday. This trough will bring high wind shear of 20 - 30 knots by Friday night. This trough should be strong enough to turn 92L to the north. The models have come into better agreement keeping 92L offshore as it passes North Carolina, though the storm is certainly capable of giving the Outer Banks a direct hit. As 92L passes North Carolina, it should start heading north-northeast, with a second landfall likely Saturday night or Sunday morning somewhere between Massachusetts and Nova Scotia. At that time, 92L is likely to be a strong tropical storm or weak Category 1 hurricane, with winds in the 55 - 80 mph range. It currently appears that 92L will not bring tropical storm-force winds to the Bahamas or to Florida.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic
The models have been inconsistently predicting formation of several tropical waves coming off the coast of Africa over the next week, and I am going to stop mentioning these forecasts until we get two models predicting the same thing, several model runs in a row.

I'll have an update later today.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 817 - 767

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19Blog Index

Quoting OSUWXGUY:


Yeah...StormW, the NHC, and most of the models show only slow strengthening over the next 24-36 hours as upper level conditions (specifically a trough axis) are not overly favorable for Danny.

On Friday, there is a brief window where some ridging is forecast to build in overtop Danny which should allow the convection to surround the circulation and let the storm become vertically stacked over very warm water. It is during this 24 hour that will really determing how strong Danny becomes.

If it is able to take advantage of this window, then it could easily become a category 1 or 2 hurricane. If not, then it will likely stay as a strong tropical storm on it way north.

Note: Intensity forecast are notoriously inaccurate in general. If you live along the East Coast, watch the weather closely over the next 24 hours and be prepared to take the appropriate actions if necessary.


thanks, the only reason that I'm asking is that i have a summer house in north carolina, and dont know if i should drive up from florida to board up..cat 1 maybe but 2 definitely. thanks for the information..check back with you later on another opinion.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
GIV starting to make its drops on the GOM...
Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 5038
Track's up (pink line) on the SFWMD sat



The address if needed: http://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/satfloat.html
Member Since: October 18, 2005 Posts: 4 Comments: 3052
"wave off africe may take a day or two to develop imo"

There's an epiphany...
Quoting iluvjess:
"thanks, so does anyone have a good recent satellite of danny?"

Tropical Floater on the WU Tropical Page


thank ya
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
"thanks, so does anyone have a good recent satellite of danny?"

Tropical Floater on the WU Tropical Page
810. IKE
Quoting justalurker:


IKE-i have a bad feeling about this one..


May make it to the Caribbean.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting IKE:


IKE-i have a bad feeling about this one..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
808. IKE
Quoting Chavalito:
African wave, another fish storm. I think that this season will be characterized bay fish storms. But thanks GOD for that, at least for our people in Puerto Rico. We now have an economic hurricane affecting us since 2005, so we don't want a visit of natural one...


It is not a fish system. Pegged to track west.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
799. BeanTech 11:46 AM PDT on August 26, 2009
*wonders how many page hits amy's blog is getting and how many disappointing sighs there are after discovering nothing but a dead Kermit*



hahahahahaha!!!!

;)

later guys...I can't stay on topic...

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
How do you know that a storm forming off the coast of Africa will be a FISH storm?

Can I borrow your crystal ball? I need to buy some lotto tickets tonight and could really use the $$$.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting justalurker:


do you still see danny, strengthen to cat 1 as stormw suggested, due to the current conditions.


Yeah...StormW, the NHC, and most of the models show only slow strengthening over the next 24-36 hours as upper level conditions (specifically a trough axis) are not overly favorable for Danny.

On Friday, there is a brief window where some ridging is forecast to build in overtop Danny which should allow the convection to surround the circulation and let the storm become vertically stacked over very warm water. It is during this 24 hour that will really determing how strong Danny becomes.

If it is able to take advantage of this window, then it could easily become a category 1 or 2 hurricane. If not, then it will likely stay as a strong tropical storm on it way north.

Note: Intensity forecast are notoriously inaccurate in general. If you live along the East Coast, watch the weather closely over the next 24 hours and be prepared to take the appropriate actions if necessary.
Is the ULL southwest of Danny steering it right now?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
wave off africe may take a day or two to develop imo
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting ncstorm:


I agree


thanks, so does anyone have a good recent satellite of danny?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
801. IKE
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Danny 18Z

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 25.0N LONCUR = 70.8W DIRCUR = 300DEG SPDCUR = 12KT
LATM12 = 23.8N LONM12 = 68.5W DIRM12 = 294DEG SPDM12 = 16KT
LATM24 = 22.8N LONM24 = 65.0W
WNDCUR = 40KT RMAXWD = 120NM WNDM12 = 40KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 150NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 120NM
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 15 Comments: 11341
sevasurfer. what exactly are you buying. if its a night of beer i will be there
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting jeffs713:

Banning without recourse is fairly standard for a moderated blog or forum.

As for banning with flags, I don't think so, as it would be ripe for abuse. I think that question is best directed to the admin on here.


Guess you're right. I'm new to this stuff.
Member Since: October 18, 2005 Posts: 4 Comments: 3052
Well, guess my Portsmouth Island trip will be postponed from Saturday til Sunday.....Park officials will probably shut it down....always wants to rain on my parade.....or rather blow on my parade.....
Anyone got a "guesstimate" of whether there will be any storm surge on the Pamlico or Neuse rivers???
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
African wave, another fish storm. I think that this season will be characterized bay fish storms. But thanks GOD for that, at least for our people in Puerto Rico. We now have an economic hurricane affecting us since 2005, so we don't want a visit of natural one...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting tornadodude:
i really think we need to focus our posts on the topic please, not trying to be a pain, but this is kinda out of hand today =P


I agree
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting seminolesfan:
It looks like the retrograding cyclone (cold core) over MS heading into LA is hanging up the trough.

Link


Thanks for the link. Looks interesting.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
For those who missed this earlier:


PRESS RELEASE: July 1, 2009

ECSC: A RIDE OF HISTORIC PROPORTIONS


The forty-seventh (47) installment of the granddaddy of East Coast surfing contests will be held August 27-30, 2009 at the Virginia Beach, Va., oceanfront.


-----------------------------------------------------------
http://www.surfecsc.com/
North America's Oldest Running Surfing Competition

Held annually in Virginia Beach, Virginia since 1963, ECSC is more than just surfing. Dozens of people also take part in other competitions including skimboarding, volleyball, an oceanfront 5K run, a swimsuit competition and the extreme sport of skateboarding. Live bands perform for free on an oceanfront stage throughout the weekend.


Greatest contest ever! Bands, Beer , Babes, and oh the bikini contest! Come on down bloggers I'm buying.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
i really think we need to focus our posts on the topic please, not trying to be a pain, but this is kinda out of hand today =P
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting mikatnight:


This whole banning without any recourse bugs me. I thought only the administrator could ban someone. Is someone banned automatically if they get a certain # of flags?

Banning without recourse is fairly standard for a moderated blog or forum.

As for banning with flags, I don't think so, as it would be ripe for abuse. I think that question is best directed to the admin on here.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
We need a storm named Barney.
Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 137
It looks like the retrograding cyclone (cold core) over MS heading into LA is hanging up the trough.

Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
778. IKE
African wave at 1800UTC....

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting kabloie:
Surfing in Virginia this weekend will be better than usual!


Big and choppy until Danny passes, then nice clean north swell w/ a little S SE background left over. Should create nice A frames Sunday late. On It!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting seminolesfan:
Ooops...what have I stumbled into this time?

Looks like the blog is in a moody state right now.

Imagine that...Here?!?

Shocking. :)

This blog is *never* moody. Paranoid bipolar schitzophrenic? Yes. But not moody.

(my apologies in advance if anyone is offended by that. It is just shocking to see how some people react to storms on here, and quite a few of the actions I see on here collectively fit the symptoms of someone who is a bipolar paranoid schitzophrenic.)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
holynova...what is cookie monster saying on your avatar?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting seminolesfan:
Ooops...what have I stumbled into this time?

Looks like the blog is in a moody state right now.

Imagine that...Here?!?

Shocking. :)


We still have a little bit of time, the short bus usually leaves last down here.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting OSUWXGUY:
So far the Recon has only found surface winds around 25mph...although they haven't been in the convection to the east of the CoC yet...

They're on their way there though, so we should see if Danny has 45mph winds or not here within an hour or two.


do you still see danny, strengthen to cat 1 as stormw suggested, due to the current conditions.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
oh..its 2:30 school just got out in the east coast..we are in trouble now!!

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
767. slavp
Quoting NRAamy:
my magnificent purple fat folds are great at predicting the weather....when they drip sweat...it's hot outside!
Talk about Heat Index!!!! lol
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 817 - 767

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Overcast
30 °F
Overcast

JeffMasters's Recent Photos

Lake Effort Snow Shower Over Windsor, Ontario
Sunset on Dunham Lake
Pictured Rocks Sunset
Sunset on Lake Huron