Tropical Storm Danny likely to be named today

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:25 PM GMT on August 26, 2009

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First-light satellite images of the tropical wave (92L) a few hundred miles northeast of the Bahama Islands show that the system has developed an organized surface circulation, and 92L will likely be named Tropical Storm Danny later today. This morning's QuikSCAT pass confirms the presence of a surface circulation, and the satellite saw top winds of 50 mph in a cluster of thunderstorms well east of the center. Wind shear has dropped to the moderate range, 10 - 15 knots. The upper-level low 92L is moving underneath has plenty of dry air in it, and the upper low is injecting this dry air into 92L's west side, keeping and heavy thunderstorm activity from developing on that side. The Hurricane Hunters are in 92L, and have found surface winds up to 57 mph so far this morning. NHC continues to give 92L a high (greater than 50% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Thursday afternoon.


Figure 1. Water vapor satellite image from 8:15 am EDT 8/26/09 showing dry air associated with an upper-level low pressure system to the west of 92L's center of circulation. Image credit: NOAA/SSD.

The forecast for 92L
As 92L continues to plow through the upper low, the low will weaken, and wind shear is expected to decline to the low range, 5 - 10 knots, by tonight. However, the upper-level low will continue to dump dry, cold air into 92L through Thursday afternoon, slowing down development. By Thursday night, when 92L should be several hundred miles off the coast of northern Florida, the upper-level low may be weak enough and far enough away that 92L will find itself in a region with light upper level anticyclonic winds, which would favor more rapid development. Most of the intensity models, including the GFDL, HWRF, and SHIPS model, forecast that 92L will become a hurricane by Friday. However, this favorable environment will not last long, since a strong trough of low pressure will be approaching the U.S. East Coast on Friday. This trough will bring high wind shear of 20 - 30 knots by Friday night. This trough should be strong enough to turn 92L to the north. The models have come into better agreement keeping 92L offshore as it passes North Carolina, though the storm is certainly capable of giving the Outer Banks a direct hit. As 92L passes North Carolina, it should start heading north-northeast, with a second landfall likely Saturday night or Sunday morning somewhere between Massachusetts and Nova Scotia. At that time, 92L is likely to be a strong tropical storm or weak Category 1 hurricane, with winds in the 55 - 80 mph range. It currently appears that 92L will not bring tropical storm-force winds to the Bahamas or to Florida.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic
The models have been inconsistently predicting formation of several tropical waves coming off the coast of Africa over the next week, and I am going to stop mentioning these forecasts until we get two models predicting the same thing, several model runs in a row.

I'll have an update later today.

Jeff Masters

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Florida still has the force field up. The troughs keep on comming down. It is amazing that this is happening in August. I hope the east coast is spared with Danny boy.
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215. 900MB
Quoting bingcrosby:
Accuweather initial track....wider cone.



Arrghh! That puts the hurricane right on top of me on the East End of Long Island. Let's hope it's off!
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Wind Speed Probabilities

Check if your location is on the list.
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Quoting Prgal:

HAPPY BIRTHDAY STORM!!!!!!


turning 29 right storm?? ;D
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Accuweather initial track....wider cone, but TS all the way.

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Danny Boy, Da pipes Da pipes
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Quoting Weathermandan:
The NAM's consistency to bring a very potent storm very close to if not over much of the East Coast is concerning me.


I was just thinking the same thing. They really haven't changed their forecast much in the past couple of days.
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206. 7544
Quoting ncstorm:
So the NHC track is based on the old models runs without the COC data, right?


maybe a change at 2pm why would they say this if its so sure that this will turn soon by today idk

184. Bobbyweather 2:45 PM GMT on August 26, 2009
000
WTNT35 KNHC 261443
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DANNY ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052009
1100 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2009

...THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER EAST OF THE BAHAMAS BECOMES
TROPICAL STORM DANNY...

INTERESTS IN THE BAHAMAS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DANNY
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028

WHXX01 KWBC 261415

CHGHUR

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

1415 UTC WED AUG 26 2009



DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.



ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR



DISTURBANCE DANNY (AL052009) 20090826 1200 UTC



...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...

090826 1200 090827 0000 090827 1200 090828 0000



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 24.6N 70.0W 25.6N 72.3W 26.3N 74.1W 27.1N 75.4W

BAMD 24.6N 70.0W 25.3N 71.9W 25.8N 73.4W 26.4N 74.9W

BAMM 24.6N 70.0W 25.4N 72.0W 26.0N 73.6W 26.7N 74.8W

LBAR 24.6N 70.0W 26.0N 72.0W 27.1N 73.7W 28.6N 74.9W

SHIP 40KTS 43KTS 48KTS 53KTS

DSHP 40KTS 43KTS 48KTS 53KTS



...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...

090828 1200 090829 1200 090830 1200 090831 1200



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 27.8N 76.3W 30.2N 76.2W 33.2N 74.0W 38.5N 71.0W

BAMD 27.6N 76.1W 32.3N 76.0W 38.8N 69.3W 45.4N 48.7W

BAMM 27.7N 75.7W 31.6N 75.0W 36.2N 70.4W 43.0N 61.0W

LBAR 30.1N 75.4W 34.0N 73.6W 40.3N 66.2W 45.9N 46.8W

SHIP 60KTS 68KTS 73KTS 69KTS

DSHP 60KTS 68KTS 73KTS 69KTS



...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 24.6N LONCUR = 70.0W DIRCUR = 295DEG SPDCUR = 16KT

LATM12 = 23.3N LONM12 = 66.7W DIRM12 = 288DEG SPDM12 = 17KT

LATM24 = 21.7N LONM24 = 63.3W

WNDCUR = 40KT RMAXWD = 90NM WNDM12 = 40KT

CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M

RD34NE = 120NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 120NM



$$

NNNN
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It is so nice "not" to be in the cone!! Y'all can have it!
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Quoting StormW:
OSUWXGUY,

You get my post yesterday?


Hey Storm! Yeah I did. I appreciate the nice words. I was feeling a little snippy after a long day of work, and hope I didn't offend you. I was just so surprised that the low level environment near the Bahamas in AUGUST had such low theta e air...

We all obviously appreciate your insights and I personally enjoy getting your opinion on the Tropics before writing my reports for the company I work for.
some tracks trending the bend westward....
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4,1,1...meh...
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Storm - Happy Birthday! (if it is today)
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Quoting EastCarolina:


Isabel stunk big time here in NC. I remember waking up to a what I thought was an earthquake. It was actually the house shaking from the trees hitting the ground one after another....



I remember fran in 96...talk about a powerful storm. The whole city of Raleigh was virtually impossible to travel by car. So many trees knocked down.
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3 in a row NICE!!! hahaha
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-----------------------------------------------------------
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Member Since: July 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6004
Quoting Patrap:
Hard to get too wound up over something that right Sided with 80 % of the CoC displaced from the convection.




Still taking in a lot of dry air I guess.
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Summary of recon findings (link to full resolution):

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< So that was Bill's visit to Wales in a nutshell.

Hei, Grothar here. How is your synopsis coming along on the storm which hit England? Waiting to read it. Du har ny maila!
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 25986
Ok, Is there any chance of Danny hitting FL. ? Please be gentle. LOL
large windfield with Danny already

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Acemett, welcome to 15 minutes ago.
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The NAM's consistency to bring a very potent storm very close to if not over much of the East Coast is concerning me.
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Quoting iluvjess:
Pat, I have been on and off the last couple of days... did you ever reply about the wager on the game on Nov 7th?


Havent a clue..and I never bet.


And if you want to discuss anything off topic,..we have wu-mail.
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It is now Tropical storm danny
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000
WTNT35 KNHC 261443
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DANNY ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052009
1100 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2009

...THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER EAST OF THE BAHAMAS BECOMES
TROPICAL STORM DANNY...

INTERESTS IN THE BAHAMAS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DANNY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA
OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DANNY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 70.3 WEST OR ABOUT
445 MILES...715 KM...EAST OF NASSAU AND ABOUT 775 MILES...1250 KM...
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA.

DANNY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR.
A GENERAL NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED TODAY AND THURSDAY...WITH A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST EXPECTED ON FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SLOW STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT DATA IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES.

DANNY IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL OF 2 TO 3 INCHES...
WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 4 INCHES...OVER THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS.

...SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...24.9N 70.3W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 18 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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Quoting Acemmett90:
ITS TD5 NAVY SITE JUST NAMED IT


000
WTNT25 KNHC 261430
TCMAT5
TROPICAL STORM DANNY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052009
1500 UTC WED AUG 26 2009

INTERESTS IN THE BAHAMAS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DANNY.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.9N 70.3W AT 26/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT.......120NE 0SE 0SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 75SE 75SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.9N 70.3W AT 26/1500Z
AT 26/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.6N 70.0W

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 25.8N 72.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...120NE 0SE 0SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 26.8N 73.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 45SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 28.1N 74.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 30.1N 75.2W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 45NE 30SE 25SW 30NW.
34 KT...135NE 100SE 75SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 36.0N 73.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 45SW 45NW.
34 KT...135NE 135SE 100SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 30/1200Z 45.0N 67.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 31/1200Z 52.0N 53.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.9N 70.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
000
WTNT35 KNHC 261443
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DANNY ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052009
1100 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2009

...THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER EAST OF THE BAHAMAS BECOMES
TROPICAL STORM DANNY...

INTERESTS IN THE BAHAMAS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DANNY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA
OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DANNY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 70.3 WEST OR ABOUT
445 MILES...715 KM...EAST OF NASSAU AND ABOUT 775 MILES...1250 KM...
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA.

DANNY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR.
A GENERAL NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED TODAY AND THURSDAY...WITH A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST EXPECTED ON FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SLOW STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT DATA IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES.

DANNY IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL OF 2 TO 3 INCHES...
WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 4 INCHES...OVER THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS.

...SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...24.9N 70.3W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 18 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN


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Quoting StormW:
Looks like the tropics sent me a Birthday present.


So today is your Bday? If so... Happy Bday... hehe.
Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 4961
2009 Storms
All Active Year


Atlantic
05L.DANNY

East Pacific
12E.IGNACIO

Central Pacific
11E.HILDA

West Pacific
98W.INVEST
90W.INVEST

Indian Ocean

Southern Hemisphere
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Isabel was bad, bonnie was worse here in ne N.C., wind gusts to 115 , several tornados here on Knotts island. this looks to be another charlie.
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So the NHC track is based on the old models runs without the COC data, right?
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Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


just dont have a good feeling, isabel was plenty for us...


Isabel stunk big time here in NC. I remember waking up to a what I thought was an earthquake. It was actually the house shaking from the trees hitting the ground one after another....

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Quoting iluvjess:
I would not be suprised to see that cone inch a little left throughout the day.


i hope not... right would be fine :)
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Hard to get too wound up over something that right Sided with 80 % of the CoC displaced from the convection.



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An Experience from Hurricane Bill in Bermuda:

On Friday evening, I put my hurricane suit on to go cover Hurricane Bill making its closest approach to Bermuda.

As soon as I left the hotel and was walking down the street, a hurricane force gust hit and snapped a significant tree branch of a tree I was passing underneath.

The branch hit me square on the helmet and my right shoulder pad and bounced off. The weight of the branch made me slump some.

I was completely uninjured!!! The hurricane suit worked exactly as designed.
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Pat, I have been on and off the last couple of days... did you ever reply about the wager on the game on Nov 7th?
Quoting Patrap:
Re: # 66


..Guess I better switch to decaff..


lol...naw, don't change a thing...
Member Since: October 18, 2005 Posts: 4 Comments: 3052
Quoting iluvjess:
Funny the difference in behaviours of the bloggers from the East Coast VS the bloggers from the GOMEX.


just dont have a good feeling, isabel was plenty for us...
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.