Tropical Storm Danny likely to be named today

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:25 PM GMT on August 26, 2009

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First-light satellite images of the tropical wave (92L) a few hundred miles northeast of the Bahama Islands show that the system has developed an organized surface circulation, and 92L will likely be named Tropical Storm Danny later today. This morning's QuikSCAT pass confirms the presence of a surface circulation, and the satellite saw top winds of 50 mph in a cluster of thunderstorms well east of the center. Wind shear has dropped to the moderate range, 10 - 15 knots. The upper-level low 92L is moving underneath has plenty of dry air in it, and the upper low is injecting this dry air into 92L's west side, keeping and heavy thunderstorm activity from developing on that side. The Hurricane Hunters are in 92L, and have found surface winds up to 57 mph so far this morning. NHC continues to give 92L a high (greater than 50% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Thursday afternoon.


Figure 1. Water vapor satellite image from 8:15 am EDT 8/26/09 showing dry air associated with an upper-level low pressure system to the west of 92L's center of circulation. Image credit: NOAA/SSD.

The forecast for 92L
As 92L continues to plow through the upper low, the low will weaken, and wind shear is expected to decline to the low range, 5 - 10 knots, by tonight. However, the upper-level low will continue to dump dry, cold air into 92L through Thursday afternoon, slowing down development. By Thursday night, when 92L should be several hundred miles off the coast of northern Florida, the upper-level low may be weak enough and far enough away that 92L will find itself in a region with light upper level anticyclonic winds, which would favor more rapid development. Most of the intensity models, including the GFDL, HWRF, and SHIPS model, forecast that 92L will become a hurricane by Friday. However, this favorable environment will not last long, since a strong trough of low pressure will be approaching the U.S. East Coast on Friday. This trough will bring high wind shear of 20 - 30 knots by Friday night. This trough should be strong enough to turn 92L to the north. The models have come into better agreement keeping 92L offshore as it passes North Carolina, though the storm is certainly capable of giving the Outer Banks a direct hit. As 92L passes North Carolina, it should start heading north-northeast, with a second landfall likely Saturday night or Sunday morning somewhere between Massachusetts and Nova Scotia. At that time, 92L is likely to be a strong tropical storm or weak Category 1 hurricane, with winds in the 55 - 80 mph range. It currently appears that 92L will not bring tropical storm-force winds to the Bahamas or to Florida.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic
The models have been inconsistently predicting formation of several tropical waves coming off the coast of Africa over the next week, and I am going to stop mentioning these forecasts until we get two models predicting the same thing, several model runs in a row.

I'll have an update later today.

Jeff Masters

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This deserved to be named no question

I have seen many systems look like this and be named

Either way I will go with the EXPERTS at the NHC, they are right as always. If you disagree with them, well you are wrong most of the time
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Am curious, does anyone see conditions changing where any of these potential storms end up in GOM. Texas sure needs the rain.
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WTNT01 KNGU 261501Z
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM DANNY (05L) WARNING NR 001
REF/A/NAVLANTMETOCCEN NORFOLK VA/261201Z AUG 09//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
1. TROPICAL STORM DANNY (05L) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN ATLANTIC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
261200Z --- NEAR 24.6N 70.0WTO WEATHER
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NMTO WEATHER
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 24.6N 70.0W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:TO WEATHER
270000Z --- 25.8N 72.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 26.8N 73.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 28.1N 74.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KTS
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 10 KTS
---12FT SEAS: 120NM NE, 75NM SE, 75NM SW, 120NM NW
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 30.1N 75.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 36.0N 73.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 26 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 45.0N 67.0WLANTMETOCCE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 29 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 52.0N 53.0W
EXTRATROPICAL
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
---
REMARKS:
261500Z POSITION NEAR 24.9N 70.3W. OR APPROX 673NM
SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS, NORTH CAROLINA.
12FT SEAS: 120NM NE, 75NM SE, 75NM SW, 120NM NW.
THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVMARFCSTCEN
261201Z AUG 09 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTNT01
KNGU 261201 )
NEXT WARNINGS AT 262101Z, 270301Z, 270901Z AND 271501Z.//
BT
#0001

261206Z AUG 09
FM NMFC
BT
UNCLAS
MSGID/NMFC/OVLY2/0238/AUG
OVLY/ATL STORM 05L/261200Z1/AUG/1OF1/TROP STORM DANNY(05L)/METOC
TEXT/12//G/243600N5/0700000W7/S
TEXT/12//G/264800N0/0733600W9/S
TEXT/12//G/300600N9/0751200W5/S
TEXT/12//G/360000N9/0733000W3/H
TEXT/12//G/450000N9/0670000W3/H
TEXT/12//G/520000N7/0530000W8/S
LINE/6//G/243600N5/0700000W7/264800N0/0733600W9/300600N9/0751200W5
/360000N9/0733000W3/450000N9/0670000W3/520000N7/0530000W8
ARC/0/G///243600N5/0700000W7/120NM/120NM
ARC/0/G///264800N0/0733600W9/120NM/120NM
ARC/0/G///300600N9/0751200W5/135NM/135NM
ARC/0/G///360000N9/0733000W3/135NM/135NM
TEXT/12//G/223600N3/0673000W6/TROP STORM DANNY
TEXT/12//G/213600N2/0673000W6/26 AUG 1200Z
TEXT/12//G/203600N1/0673000W6/MAX 40 KT
TEXT/12//G/193600N9/0673000W6/295 AT 16 KT
TEXT/12//G/183600N8/0673000W6/34 KT RADII SHOWN
TEXT/12//G/264800N0/0693600W4/2712Z MAX 45
TEXT/12//G/300600N9/0711200W1/2812Z MAX 60
TEXT/12//G/360000N9/0693000W8/2912Z MAX 65
TEXT/12//G/450000N9/0630000W9/3012Z MAX 65
TEXT/12//G/520000N7/0490000W3/3112Z MAX 60
ENDAT
BT
#0001

REMARKS:
261500Z POSITION NEAR 24.9N 70.3W. OR APPROX 673NM
SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS, NORTH CAROLINA.
12FT SEAS: 120NM NE, 75NM SE, 75NM SW, 120NM NW.
THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVMARFCSTCEN
KNGU 261201 )
NEXT WARNINGS AT 262101Z, 270301Z, 270901Z AND 271501Z.//
BT
#0001
NNNN
0509082312 140N 480W 20
0509082318 146N 500W 20
0509082400 152N 520W 20
0509082406 159N 540W 20
0509082412 165N 560W 20
0509082418 171N 580W 20
0509082500 184N 599W 20
0509082506 202N 616W 25
0509082512 217N 633W 25
0509082518 228N 650W 25
0509082600 233N 667W 40
0509082606 238N 685W 40
0509082612 246N 700W 40


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Windfields for Danny as of 11:19 am:

Member Since: October 18, 2005 Posts: 4 Comments: 3052
Quoting IKE:
From the advisory...

"DANNY IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL OF 2 TO 3 INCHES...
WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 4 INCHES...OVER THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS.".....


How? It's suppose to move NW.




Well they might be leaning more towards a NAM/CMC solution.
Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 4929
THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS PROBLEMATIC. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
UPPER-LEVEL LOWS NORTH AND SOUTH OF DANNY CONNECTED BY A CYCLONIC
SHEAR AXIS. THIS IS NOT A IDEAL PATTERN FOR STRENGTHENING...AND
THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS SUGGEST IT MAY TAKE 24-36 HR FOR THE
ENVIRONMENT TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE.
BASED ON THIS AND THE
CURRENT ORGANIZATION OF THE STORM...THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS
FOR SLOW STRENGTHENING FOR THE FIRST 36 HR. IT THEN SHOWS A FASTER
STRENGTHENING FROM 36-48 HR AS CONDITIONS BECOME MORE FAVORABLE.
AFTER 48 HR...STRONG UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE EASTERN U. S. TROUGHS ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE INCREASED
SHEAR AND THE BEGINNING OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.



So only slow improvement over the next 24-36 hours. A brief window to intensify (possibly to hurricane strength) and then near steady state intensity as baroclinic energy feeds in during extratropical transition.

And then there's the track forecast... :-)
12z NAM drops the pressure to 984mb.
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Quoting ncstorm:


LOL..so what should we focus on then?


you focus on the cone not just the line, that is common knowledge for anyone
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I think there saying Bahamas will get rain because it might track westward until convection starts to pop on the west side. If convection stays to the east it could likely still track westward for awhile, the trough would not have much to grab onto.
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the whole cone NCSTORM. Basically dont follow the center of the track but where the whole cone is touching.
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The weather sites and channels must be sick. Low ratings because of no hurricanes hitting the US this year so far. No destruction to scream about and, worst yet, only 2 deaths and they were in Canada. I guess they will have to pack up their ponchos for another year and only dream about a screaming into a mic during a cat 4 or 5 next year and all those lovely deaths.
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Quoting Bonedog:
wow they are using the strong wording again

THE FORECAST TRACK IS ROUGHLY PARALLEL TO THE U. S. EAST COAST...AND ANY DEVIATION FROM THE TRACK COULD MAKE A LARGE DIFFERENCE IN WHAT
AREAS GET IMPACTED BY DANNY. THEREFORE...IT IS IMPORTANT NOT TO FOCUS TOO MUCH ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK.


LOL..so what should we focus on then?
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 14465
303. IKE
TROPICAL STORM DANNY DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052009
1100 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2009

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER EAST OF
THE BAHAMAS HAS DEVELOPED A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION...
WITH REPORTS FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATING THE
SYSTEM WAS BEST DEVELOPED BELOW 12000 FT. QUIKSCAT DATA AND A FEW
OBSERVATIONS FROM THE STEPPED FREQUENCY MICROWAVE RADIOMETER SHOW
TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS OCCURRING NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE
CENTER...WHICH IS THE BASIS FOR THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KT.
THE STORM HAS BEEN TANGLED UP WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW FOR THE PAST
24 HR...AND THE STRUCTURE AS MUCH RESEMBLES A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE
AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. HOWEVER...CYCLONE PHASE ANALYSES FROM
FLORIDA STATE UNIVERSITY SUGGEST THAT DANNY IS MARGINALLY MORE
TROPICAL THAN SUBTROPICAL...HENCE THE DESIGNATION OF TROPICAL
STORM.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 295/16. DANNY IS ON THE
NORTH SIDE OF A MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER HISPANIOLA AND
SOUTHWEST OF A MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE CENTER EAST OF BERMUDA.
THIS PATTERN SHOULD STEER DANNY GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD WITH
DECELERATION FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HR. AFTER THAT...THE LARGE SCALE
MODELS AGREE THAT A MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE
GREAT LAKES...WITH A MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE GULF COAST STATES
MOVING EASTWARD OR NORTHEASTWARD. THIS EVOLUTION SHOULD CAUSE
DANNY TO TURN NORTHWARD AND THEN RECURVE INTO THE WESTERLIES.
WHILE THE MODELS AGREE ON THE SCENARIO...THERE IS ENOUGH SPREAD IN
THE TRACK GUIDANCE TO MAKE IT UNCERTAIN WHAT LAND AREA DANNY MAY
AFFECT. THE NAM AND THE CANADIAN MODELS FORECAST DANNY TO MAKE
LANDFALL IN EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA IN ABOUT 72 HR AND MOVE UP THE
U. S. EASTERN SEABOARD...WHILE THE GFS...HWRF... AND GFDL SHOW A
MORE EASTERLY TRACK THAT KEEPS DANNY OFFSHORE UNTIL IT REACHES THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. THE FORECAST SPLITS THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN
THESE EXTREMES AND IS A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS.
THE FORECAST TRACK IS ROUGHLY PARALLEL TO THE U. S. EAST COAST...AND
ANY DEVIATION FROM THE TRACK COULD MAKE A LARGE DIFFERENCE IN WHAT
AREAS GET IMPACTED BY DANNY. THEREFORE...IT IS IMPORTANT NOT TO
FOCUS TOO MUCH ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS PROBLEMATIC. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
UPPER-LEVEL LOWS NORTH AND SOUTH OF DANNY CONNECTED BY A CYCLONIC
SHEAR AXIS. THIS IS NOT A IDEAL PATTERN FOR STRENGTHENING...AND
THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS SUGGEST IT MAY TAKE 24-36 HR FOR THE
ENVIRONMENT TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE. BASED ON THIS AND THE
CURRENT ORGANIZATION OF THE STORM...THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS
FOR SLOW STRENGTHENING FOR THE FIRST 36 HR. IT THEN SHOWS A FASTER
STRENGTHENING FROM 36-48 HR AS CONDITIONS BECOME MORE FAVORABLE.
AFTER 48 HR...STRONG UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE EASTERN U. S. TROUGHS ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE INCREASED
SHEAR AND THE BEGINNING OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST THUS CALLS FOR DANNY TO REACH 65 KT IN 72 HR...THEN BECOME
EXTRATROPICAL BY 96 HR. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS IN BEST
AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS. HOWEVER...IT IS WEAKER
THAN THE FORECASTS OF THE GFDL AND HWRF.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 26/1500Z 24.9N 70.3W 40 KT
12HR VT 27/0000Z 25.8N 72.0W 40 KT
24HR VT 27/1200Z 26.8N 73.6W 45 KT
36HR VT 28/0000Z 28.1N 74.5W 50 KT
48HR VT 28/1200Z 30.1N 75.2W 60 KT
72HR VT 29/1200Z 36.0N 73.5W 65 KT
96HR VT 30/1200Z 45.0N 67.0W 65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 31/1200Z 52.0N 53.0W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Once the convection starts to wrap around, will this cause a wobble that might send it more westward before heading north??
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wow they are using the strong wording again

THE FORECAST TRACK IS ROUGHLY PARALLEL TO THE U. S. EAST COAST...AND ANY DEVIATION FROM THE TRACK COULD MAKE A LARGE DIFFERENCE IN WHAT
AREAS GET IMPACTED BY DANNY. THEREFORE...IT IS IMPORTANT NOT TO FOCUS TOO MUCH ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK.
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Quoting justalurker:


my fault i think..my sincere apologies!!!

Me too! I get a ban for "off topic image" and I never posted an off topic image. The blog was about invest 92l and I posted an image of 92l merged with the ULL when it was at that point and I get a 24 hour ban. I could also never get the blog admin to respond to me to tell me what I had done. Crazy...
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With the COC barely having any convection around it, and being a weak system, keep it going more west?
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y'all are gonna get banned...trust me, I'm an expert...
Member Since: January 24, 2007 Posts: 317 Comments: 31946
Danny is a shallow sucker

HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATING THE
SYSTEM WAS BEST DEVELOPED BELOW 12000 FT.
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Quoting justalurker:


my fault i think..my sincere apologies!!!

How did you get me banned -for what? I may have to put you in the corner on your knees...on rice! :)
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That shear has got to be 15-20kt. It's just tearing into Danny.
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Smells of fish here in the UK! We are getting warm rain and gusty winds from the depression that was once Bill. It smells like a fishmonger outside - really strange!
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Quoting TheCaneWhisperer:


LOL.. The shields are up!
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Quoting bingcrosby:


Yikes! Cat 3 or 4? Looks like the wishcasters (cough Bastardi cough) might actually get their major hurricane hitting NY.


While not impossible...I highly doubt we would get winds much above 100 mph.

The jet structure will help it maintain the strength it does get while over the Gulf Stream, but I just don't think with the struggling convection and somewhat dry/cool air still being ingested into the circulation that we would have something ramp up that quickly.
288. IKE
From the advisory...

"DANNY IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL OF 2 TO 3 INCHES...
WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 4 INCHES...OVER THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS.".....


How? It's suppose to move NW.


Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
287. 789
Quoting StormW:


Actually, it will go around the periphery of the ridge, until it finds the weakness...if he reaches CAT1 then he'll begin being steered by the mid layer, in which then, he would feel the effects of any trofs...if you notice, when you look at water vapor loop imagery and see trofs, water vapor imagery is representtive of the 500mb level (avg.).
HAPPY BIRTHDAY stormW a day early but celebrate all week lol thanks for what you do doing barometer bob tonight?
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Quoting TheCaneWhisperer:


Thanks Crist!
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Quoting hurricanehanna:

did you get banned too? I didn't even post and image and they said I did.


my fault i think..my sincere apologies!!!
Member Since: August 18, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 157
All the funny pics, not a good idea, folks
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Danny has a long way to go before looking like this...

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Good morning. I was looking at the African satellite and it sure looks like lots of activity coming up. Would appreciate yalls educated opinion on this. Thanks.
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Quoting NRAamy:
( must stay on topic...must stay on topic...must stay on topic....)

did you get banned too? I didn't even post and image and they said I did.
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Filet-O-Fish?
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Good Morning StormJunkie,Ike,StormW,Press,Orca. So what's been going on in the tropics? My computer crashed and none repairable well without plrny. So had to by a new one. And this one is very complicated still trying to learn how to use it. And I don't like it cause it has Vista. And that's confusing enough. So how is the tropics.i

Sheri
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accuweather has it tracked right over my house in south eastern ct, sweet.
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Quoting SeniorPoppy:
With all of the troughs digging down, it looks more like October.


Yeah, if this storm does hit us..we wont have to worry about a "hot and humid" aftermath..they are predicting a strong cold front right after the storm...
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 14465
275. SpyRI
I'm in Southern Rhode Island- if you guys were here, would you be worried?
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Quoting Patrap:


Proximity to JFV's House was the determining factor I bet IKE.

well, there is a swirlie in the bathroom!lol
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( must stay on topic...must stay on topic...must stay on topic....)
Member Since: January 24, 2007 Posts: 317 Comments: 31946
Quoting OSUWXGUY:
Alright...this is the last NAM image I'll post...

Simulated reflectivity showing a broad eye-like feature just SSE of New York City.

At this time, the upper level 200/300mb pattern is massively divergent over the storm. The storm finds itself in the right rear quadrant of the northern jet, with a pattern very similar to the setup for a blizzard that is bombing out off the coast of the Northeast!



That looks a lot like Hurricane Gloria in 1985.
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Oh Danny Boy
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Quoting OSUWXGUY:
Apparently the NAM has started smoking the same stuff as the CMC. They're starting to look more and more alike.

Now I will be impressed if they're actually right...



They've been in the same drug for a long time... I'm with you if indeed what they're both forecasting does materialize.
Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 4929
With all of the troughs digging down, it looks more like October.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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