Tropical Storm Danny likely to be named today

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:25 PM GMT on August 26, 2009

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First-light satellite images of the tropical wave (92L) a few hundred miles northeast of the Bahama Islands show that the system has developed an organized surface circulation, and 92L will likely be named Tropical Storm Danny later today. This morning's QuikSCAT pass confirms the presence of a surface circulation, and the satellite saw top winds of 50 mph in a cluster of thunderstorms well east of the center. Wind shear has dropped to the moderate range, 10 - 15 knots. The upper-level low 92L is moving underneath has plenty of dry air in it, and the upper low is injecting this dry air into 92L's west side, keeping and heavy thunderstorm activity from developing on that side. The Hurricane Hunters are in 92L, and have found surface winds up to 57 mph so far this morning. NHC continues to give 92L a high (greater than 50% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Thursday afternoon.


Figure 1. Water vapor satellite image from 8:15 am EDT 8/26/09 showing dry air associated with an upper-level low pressure system to the west of 92L's center of circulation. Image credit: NOAA/SSD.

The forecast for 92L
As 92L continues to plow through the upper low, the low will weaken, and wind shear is expected to decline to the low range, 5 - 10 knots, by tonight. However, the upper-level low will continue to dump dry, cold air into 92L through Thursday afternoon, slowing down development. By Thursday night, when 92L should be several hundred miles off the coast of northern Florida, the upper-level low may be weak enough and far enough away that 92L will find itself in a region with light upper level anticyclonic winds, which would favor more rapid development. Most of the intensity models, including the GFDL, HWRF, and SHIPS model, forecast that 92L will become a hurricane by Friday. However, this favorable environment will not last long, since a strong trough of low pressure will be approaching the U.S. East Coast on Friday. This trough will bring high wind shear of 20 - 30 knots by Friday night. This trough should be strong enough to turn 92L to the north. The models have come into better agreement keeping 92L offshore as it passes North Carolina, though the storm is certainly capable of giving the Outer Banks a direct hit. As 92L passes North Carolina, it should start heading north-northeast, with a second landfall likely Saturday night or Sunday morning somewhere between Massachusetts and Nova Scotia. At that time, 92L is likely to be a strong tropical storm or weak Category 1 hurricane, with winds in the 55 - 80 mph range. It currently appears that 92L will not bring tropical storm-force winds to the Bahamas or to Florida.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic
The models have been inconsistently predicting formation of several tropical waves coming off the coast of Africa over the next week, and I am going to stop mentioning these forecasts until we get two models predicting the same thing, several model runs in a row.

I'll have an update later today.

Jeff Masters

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Danny looks horrible on the GFS through 48 hours....
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all i see is a nekkid swirl at 25/71...
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Quoting mikatnight:


Think you're wrong on that one, boss. This blog is composed mainly of people who have a keen interest in weather, and who are well versed in the nomenclature. The blog helps them learn and refine their studies. People like me come on board to get a feel for what’s going on before the NHC makes it official. But to discount the NHC is foolish – they are the experts, even Dr. Masters defers to them because they are the hubb around which all tropical cyclone info is processed.


Very well said, thank you for seeing my point
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U r welcome stormsurge39.....I hope that you have a great day!! :)
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363. 789
Quoting btwntx08:
hey bloggers come to my blog i did a new entry but i copy and paste th same thing but i have no comments right now so i would greatly inspire me commenting my blog thanks
Link
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Sooo....give me your thoughts on Danny

Danny needs to lay off the steroids....sorry, you were talking about Danny Boneduci, right?
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Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:
anyway guys have fun

if anything Danny should give us some nice radar shots in the coming days

also look out for the wave train, its getting active, with that pattern change possible, September could be very interesting

Lol the only thing u didnt say that i would expect is "i'm out" see ya soon, jp. lol
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Quoting NRAamy:
Everyone has a right to an opinion.

Opinions are like....

( must stay on topic!!!!! purple hippo puts herself into the corner for timeout )

I was banned and I didn't post any pic, just responded lol...I think justalurker flagged everyone....
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Thanks Connie
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Do anyone know's why my paint on my computer won't allow me to paste pictures?
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I am one of those that just linger in the background and watch the true experts give their "spin" on these storms. But the one thing that bothers me about this blog is that those who think they know alot, are learners too but sometimes treat others like they may be idiots. Otherwise, I appreciate the purpose of this blog and the information it provides.
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Quoting cattlebaroness:
Thanks Cane


Keep in mind, Troughing has been the dominant force thus far so I'll believe the ridging when I see it.
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I'm sticking with prediction of 14/7/4, so far its 4/1/1, I think we may get another one by end of August , I'm thinking 5 in September, 3 in October a late season one in either Nov or early Dec.
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Quoting NRAamy:
Everyone has a right to an opinion.

Opinions are like....

( must stay on topic!!!!! purple hippo puts herself into the corner for timeout )

Sooo....give me your thoughts on Danny
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Quoting BobinTampa:


then this blog is comical and pointless really. If everyone agreed with the NHC, there would be no reason to be here.


Think you're wrong on that one, boss. This blog is composed mainly of people who have a keen interest in weather, and who are well versed in the nomenclature. The blog helps them learn and refine their studies. People like me come on board to get a feel for what’s going on before the NHC makes it official. But to discount the NHC is foolish – they are the experts, even Dr. Masters defers to them because they are the hubb around which all tropical cyclone info is processed.
Member Since: October 18, 2005 Posts: 4 Comments: 3052
Quoting funeeeg:
Smells of fish here in the UK! We are getting warm rain and gusty winds from the depression that was once Bill. It smells like a fishmonger outside - really strange!


Thats probably your feet that you smell.
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Happy birthday stormsurge39!!!
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anyway guys have fun

if anything Danny should give us some nice radar shots in the coming days

also look out for the wave train, its getting active, with that pattern change possible, September could be very interesting
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Thanks Cane
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It sounds like(and im not putting down the NHC down) that they are not real sure about the short term track. It looks like from Info ive gotten off different weather sources, that when a system has not wrapped around the COC, it will not be influenced as much by troughs. The current steering winds are Westward. Today is my B-Day,so cut me some slack if i have no idea what im talking about.
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347. IKE
Quoting NRAamy:
Everyone has a right to an opinion.

Opinions are like....

( must stay on topic!!!!! purple hippo puts herself into the corner for timeout )


Reads like you got a timeout.

I have to bite my tongue on here sometimes to keep from getting banned...

12Z GFS is running...
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
345. 7544
looks like something is making danny look very ill
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Quoting mikatnight:


Still holding on to my 8-4-2...

Still at 9/5/2
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"SATURDAY/SUNDAY: Lingering (Saturday), then diminishing (Sunday) E/ENE swell should be on tap with light offshore winds holding each morning. How much and how long depends on the development of Danny and how fast it tracks off to the north late week/Saturday. Some data suggests the Danny will not race off, so the swell may linger through Sunday. Stay tuned"


For North Florida: Not another Bill, but still going to be significant. Looks like another fun weekend!!
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...south florida is lucky so far this year...(knocking on wood)...hopefully this will continue for the rest of the season...
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Quoting cattlebaroness:
Am curious about future storms. Not Danny. Wondering if weather conditions would allow some of those waves coming off of Africa to affect the GOM.


There is a possibility of a pattern change taking shape after the passage of Danny and getting into September. One that would favor passage into the GOM from the south or from the east, stay tuned.
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Troughs keep coming. East coast trough looks weak.
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If Danny does hit Long Island...would it be more likely to hit at high tide, or low tide?
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Quoting DaytonaBeachWatcher:

Not according to some, like BAP, who btw sounds very familiar to me, i wonder why....


Nah just tired of everyone 2nd guessing experts. Opinions are fine, but geez they named the storm let it go

Oh and for the record I am new to the site, only been here about a month, but the absolute comedic nature of it at times, makes me not post

There are times when it is all good and there are some good people who post here, but it gets to be too much sometimes
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Everyone has a right to an opinion.

Opinions are like....

( must stay on topic!!!!! purple hippo puts herself into the corner for timeout )
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Quoting IKE:


Everyone has a right to an opinion.

Not according to some, like BAP, who btw sounds very familiar to me, i wonder why....
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Quoting IKE:


Everyone has a right to an opinion.


i had to say the same thing yesterday
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334. IKE
Quoting lizrod43:
let the second guessing begin....
fun isn't it????


Everyone has a right to an opinion.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
Quoting IKE:


Props to you for being honest about your prediction!

I predicted...10-4-2. If I bust too, I'll post it on here letting everyone know.


Still holding on to my 8-4-2...
Member Since: October 18, 2005 Posts: 4 Comments: 3052
You have to take what is posted on here by most with a grain of salt, they are just opinions

the NHC is official, so we dont have Danny until they say so and if they feel we have Danny (which we do), that is all that really matters

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Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:


LMAO did I say that? No

Just the 2nd guessing of the NHC is rather comical and pointless really


then this blog is comical and pointless really. If everyone agreed with the NHC, there would be no reason to be here.
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...and im supposed to go to the Outer Banks this weekend................... hmm....
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let the second guessing begin....
fun isn't it????
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328. IKE
Quoting BenBIogger:
My Prediction (Since June 17)
4 Named Storms
1 Hurricane
0 Major Hurricanes

Bust!



Props to you for being honest about your prediction!

I predicted...10-4-2. If I bust too, I'll post it on here letting everyone know.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
Am curious about future storms. Not Danny. Wondering if weather conditions would allow some of those waves coming off of Africa to affect the GOM.
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Quoting BobinTampa:



Awesome, I guess we'll just shut down the blog and all go to the NHC site??



LMAO did I say that? No

Just the 2nd guessing of the NHC is rather comical and pointless really
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Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:
This deserved to be named no question

I have seen many systems look like this and be named

Either way I will go with the EXPERTS at the NHC, they are right as always. If you disagree with them, well you are wrong most of the time



Awesome, I guess we'll just shut down the blog and all go to the NHC site??

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My Prediction (Since June 17)
4 Named Storms
1 Hurricane
0 Major Hurricanes

Bust!

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good morning guys we have DANNY WOW
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320. Prgal
I dont mean to offend anyone, but why do some people ask questions that have obvious answers? Is it going to hit Florida? Is it going to affect Texas? Its like me asking "Do you think it will affect us in PR?...its close to us". Geez...look at the forcast maps! Ok, back to lurking.
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Quoting ncstorm:


LOL..so what should we focus on then?

Preparing for Danny if you might be impacted by him. Never focus on the thin black line that used to be down the middle. Focus on the cone itself.
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This deserved to be named no question

I have seen many systems look like this and be named

Either way I will go with the EXPERTS at the NHC, they are right as always. If you disagree with them, well you are wrong most of the time
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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