Hurricane Hunters find 50 - 60 mph winds in disturbance 92L north of Puerto Rico

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 8:54 PM GMT on August 25, 2009

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The tropical wave (92L) a few hundred miles north of Puerto Rico is generating a large area of surface winds of 50 - 60 mph, according to the latest information from the Hurricane Hunters. Top winds seen so far at their flight level of 1,000 feet were 69 mph, which would make 92L a strong tropical storm if it had a surface circulation.
However, the aircraft has not found a surface circulation, and the satellite appearance shows virtually no change in the amount, intensity, or organization of the storm's thunderstorm activity. Wind shear has dropped to the moderate range, 15 - 20 knots this afternoon, but the upper low 92L is moving underneath is dumping cold, dry air into the region. Dry air continues to get ingested into 92L's thunderstorms, creating strong downdrafts that are robbing 92L of heat and moisture. These downdrafts are creating surface arc clouds that spread out from where the downdraft hits the ocean surface. NHC continues to give 92L a high (greater than 50% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Thursday afternoon.

The forecast for 92L
As 92L moves underneath the center of the upper low on Wednesday morning, the upper low is expected to weaken, and wind shear is expected to decline to the low range, 5 - 10 knots. However, the upper-level low will continue to dump dry, cold air into 92L through Thursday afternoon, slowing down development. By Thursday night, when 92L should be several hundred miles off the coast of northern Florida, the upper-level low may be weak enough and far enough away that 92L will find itself in a region with light upper level anticyclonic winds, which would favor more rapid development. However, this favorable environment will not last long, since a strong trough of low pressure will be approaching the U.S. East Coast on Friday. This trough will bring high wind shear of 20 - 30 knots by Friday night. This trough should be strong enough to turn 92L to the north. The models disagree substantially on how close 92L will be to the coast at that time. One camp of models, including the NOGAPS, Canadian, UKMET, and ECMWF models, predict 92L will pass very close to the Outer Banks of North Carolina on Friday night or Saturday morning. The GFS, GFDL, and HWRF models keep 92L several hundred miles out to sea. Both sets of models bring 92L north-northeastwards on Saturday, with a track over Massachusetts or Nova Scotia. The intensity forecast for 92L is problematic, since it's eventual strength depends upon how quickly it manages to become a tropical depression. Given that 92L will find itself in a favorable environment for strengthening for about 36 hours this week, and marginal for the remainder of the week, I give the system these odds:

10% chance of never getting a name.
20% chance of becoming a weak tropical storm (40 - 50 mph winds).
40% chance of becoming a strong tropical storm (55 - 70 mph winds).
30% chance of attaining hurricane strength.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic
The ECMWF and UKMET models predict the development of a tropical wave coming off the coast of Africa late this week. The GFS model no longer shows this.

I'll have an update Wednesday morning.

Jeff Masters

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989. WXHam
4:07 PM GMT on August 26, 2009
000
WTNT35 KNHC 261443
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DANNY ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052009
1100 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2009

...THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER EAST OF THE BAHAMAS BECOMES TROPICAL STORM DANNY...

INTERESTS IN THE BAHAMAS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DANNY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DANNY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 70.3 WEST OR ABOUT
445 MILES...715 KM...EAST OF NASSAU AND ABOUT 775 MILES...1250 KM...
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA.

DANNY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR.
A GENERAL NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TODAY AND THURSDAY...WITH A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST EXPECTED ON FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SLOW STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT DATA IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES.

DANNY IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL OF 2 TO 3 INCHES...
WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 4 INCHES...OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.

...SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...24.9N 70.3W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 18 MPH MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 33
987. hurricanejunky
1:31 PM GMT on August 26, 2009
Looks like the models have shifted back east again? Last night a third of the spaghetti models were coming over the outer banks.
Any theories on how things will play out to steer this thing?
Member Since: August 28, 2006 Posts: 6 Comments: 2898
986. conchygirl
1:28 PM GMT on August 26, 2009
New blog up!
Member Since: June 11, 2008 Posts: 24 Comments: 5910
985. leftyy420
1:27 PM GMT on August 26, 2009
2pm might be right but I think it will likely be as soon as they get a vortex message.

Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
984. TStormSC
1:27 PM GMT on August 26, 2009
Rain dance, rain dance, rain dance. The chances don't look good, but I'm dancin' anyway.
Member Since: July 15, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 205
983. CycloneOz
1:26 PM GMT on August 26, 2009
'mornin' all! :)

Back home now! It's great to be back on a full size keyboard again! One of the finer things in life I suppose...

I've begun logging my video tapes into my editing station. I'm so stoked about the footage I got, I've changed my mind and plan on releasing an "Experience Hurricane Bill" video as soon as possible.

Hopefully...you'll see it by Sunday! :)

Oz---out! :)
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 3683
982. Bonedog
1:26 PM GMT on August 26, 2009
LOL and guess what =/

How you been?

Ive been lurking not much to talk about so i kept quiet. This one has my interest peaked though.
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
981. ConchHondros
1:25 PM GMT on August 26, 2009
Quoting mikatnight:


I'm thinkin', their 2pm advisory...


I agree...2pm
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 551
980. NEwxguy
1:25 PM GMT on August 26, 2009
Bone,good to see you,someone asked about you last week, and I said if the northeast is threatened he'll be here.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 878 Comments: 15721
979. WxLogic
1:24 PM GMT on August 26, 2009
Quoting ackee:
do u guys think we have danny by 11pm


Based on its current representation... in my opinion may be tomorrow AM after DMAX.
Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 4972
978. surfsidesindy
1:24 PM GMT on August 26, 2009
Quoting NARCHER:
neg nao what that that mean for next few weeks?


Basic answer: Less wind and higher SSTs in the Atlantic
Member Since: September 7, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 287
977. leftyy420
1:23 PM GMT on August 26, 2009
Quoting StormJunkie:
Holy cow, my long lost pal lefty has crawled out of the wood work! Good to see ya man. Hope all is well up N. :)


Oh yeah. I can not complain lol.

Figured it was time to let yall know I am still here
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
976. Bonedog
1:23 PM GMT on August 26, 2009
take a quick look up at post 959 which was at 12:55 utz and post 971 at 13:10 in 15min the cloud pattern changed to show a wraping =)

Danny by 11am is my guess 24.94 70.46
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
975. leftyy420
1:22 PM GMT on August 26, 2009
Quoting Buhdog:
wow...left 420. The first guy to answer a question for me like over 4 years ago. cool


Oh Yeah. Where does the time go.
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
974. willdunc79
1:21 PM GMT on August 26, 2009
NHC probably waiting to see what the winds are and to make sure it's a closed LLC among other things.
Member Since: June 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 152
973. SQUAWK
1:21 PM GMT on August 26, 2009
Quoting casadunlap:


What does untasked mean? TIA


It is a research mission that was not tasked by NHC. It was tasked by NOAA as a special mission to gather data for future forecast improvement in the models etc. Its data is still useful for the current system.
Member Since: December 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2498
972. StormJunkie
1:21 PM GMT on August 26, 2009
Holy cow, my long lost pal lefty has crawled out of the wood work! Good to see ya man. Hope all is well up N. :)
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16501
971. Bonedog
1:20 PM GMT on August 26, 2009
definatley starting to wrap around the coc

still exposed but beging to pull his pampers up



Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
970. mikatnight
1:20 PM GMT on August 26, 2009
Quoting LBAR:


And by "advanced" you mean higher taxes and lots of transplanted Yankees with funny accents, I'm sure...haha. South Carolina is my homestate, and she will never merge with the likes of NC. I hate it when people in Charlotte refer to themselves as living in "metrolina"....blech!

Back to Danny...there is definitely a LLC on satelite...not sure what the NHC is waiting for.


I'm thinkin', their 2pm advisory...
Member Since: October 18, 2005 Posts: 4 Comments: 3052
969. NARCHER
1:19 PM GMT on August 26, 2009
Quoting BenBIogger:
NAO going negative.
neg nao what that that mean for next few weeks?
968. Orcasystems
1:19 PM GMT on August 26, 2009
Quoting LBAR:




Back to Danny...there is definitely a LLC on satelite...not sure what the NHC is waiting for.


My guess would be data and facts?
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
967. Portlight
1:19 PM GMT on August 26, 2009
.
Member Since: January 7, 2009 Posts: 121 Comments: 412
966. ackee
1:17 PM GMT on August 26, 2009
do u guys think we have danny by 11pm
Member Since: July 15, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1372
965. LBAR
1:17 PM GMT on August 26, 2009
Quoting bonovoix:


Considering N. Carolina is way more advanced with RTP, Duke University, UNC and Charlotte. You would think S. Carolina would be jumping all over that. IMO.


And by "advanced" you mean higher taxes and lots of transplanted Yankees with funny accents, I'm sure...haha. South Carolina is my homestate, and she will never merge with the likes of NC. I hate it when people in Charlotte refer to themselves as living in "metrolina"....blech!

Back to Danny...there is definitely a LLC on satelite...not sure what the NHC is waiting for.
Member Since: July 7, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 242
964. nrtiwlnvragn
1:15 PM GMT on August 26, 2009
Quoting casadunlap:


What does untasked mean? TIA


It was not scheduled by the NHC. It was however in yesterday's Plan of the Day:

3. REMARKS: NOAA MAY BEGIN FLYING RESEARCH MISSIONS
EVER 12 HRS WITH THE FIRST TAKEOFF TENATIVELY SET
FOR 25/2000Z THIS AFTERNOON.


It is the NOAA plane that is out there now.
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 11153
963. Buhdog
1:15 PM GMT on August 26, 2009
wow...left 420. The first guy to answer a question for me like over 4 years ago. cool
Member Since: July 30, 2005 Posts: 1 Comments: 960
962. Orcasystems
1:11 PM GMT on August 26, 2009
Quoting StormJunkie:
944. Damn that chicken curse!

Un-tasked means that it was not a scheduled flight if I am not mistaken


Here is what the Tasking message header says

Product: NOAA Temp Drop (Dropsonde) Message (UZNT13 KWBC)
Transmitted: 26th day of the month at 12:46Z
Aircraft: Lockheed WP-3D Orion (Reg. Num. N43RF)
Mission: Non-Tasked Mission, possibly not tropical (flight originating in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Identifier: Al92 (Probably storm name and mission number)
Observation Number: 11
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
961. BenBIogger
1:11 PM GMT on August 26, 2009
NAO going negative.
Member Since: March 19, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1421
960. bonovoix
1:11 PM GMT on August 26, 2009
Quoting presslord:


All that is great...but we have Charleston...


Charleston is a great historic city. One of my favorite places on the East Coast. But not to many jobs in Charleston. And if you need any kind of advanced medical treatment you need to travel to N. Carolina.
959. homegirl
1:11 PM GMT on August 26, 2009


Soon to be TS Danny

COC exposed, shear still affecting it but is relaxing.
Member Since: August 1, 2006 Posts: 45 Comments: 7425
958. TheCaneWhisperer
1:10 PM GMT on August 26, 2009
Quoting leftyy420:
Hey SJ

Hey every one. Just letting yall know I have been lurking and will be lurking.



Howdy Lefty, long time no see. Good to have you around.
957. largeeyes
1:09 PM GMT on August 26, 2009
Will HH data be in the 12Z models?
Member Since: August 22, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1455
956. leftyy420
1:08 PM GMT on August 26, 2009
Hey SJ

Hey every one. Just letting yall know I have been lurking and will be lurking.

Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
955. Bonedog
1:07 PM GMT on August 26, 2009
yup IKE coc is exposed but looking back at the 12:15 image to the 12:45 image you cans ee the clouds starting to form over the coc ( high cirrus but still clouds) and the covection shield has moved more west to start beging to fill in the northern sector of the system.

not saying its much of anything right now but 92 is getting his act together as far as previous vis images and the current one

thanks btw =)
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
954. 7544
1:07 PM GMT on August 26, 2009
Quoting IKE:


The center is exposed.


yeap thats the part thats moving due west at this hour and convection tagging along

did the trof kinda fizzle out over central fla also
Member Since: May 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6810
953. StormJunkie
1:07 PM GMT on August 26, 2009
944. Damn that chicken curse!

Un-tasked means that it was not a scheduled flight if I am not mistaken
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16501
952. mikatnight
1:07 PM GMT on August 26, 2009
Only 19 pages since yesterday…blog seems relatively slow considering there’s a TS about to be declared off the E conus. Maybe folks got their fix from Bill, but there’s still 15 days to peak…

Member Since: October 18, 2005 Posts: 4 Comments: 3052
951. Buhdog
1:06 PM GMT on August 26, 2009
Hey Storm Junkie! Hope all is well up there! Good to see ya this year. Had A very solid rain yesterday on the west coast of FL...hardest of the year maybe. Thinking 92l's outer reach may have helped fuel it...I think this one is going to play a few tricks.....we are due for one imo.
Member Since: July 30, 2005 Posts: 1 Comments: 960
950. casadunlap
1:06 PM GMT on August 26, 2009
Quoting Orcasystems:
There is an untasked HH in the system right now, so we should have better tracking soon



What does untasked mean? TIA
Member Since: August 12, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 26
949. Dakster
1:06 PM GMT on August 26, 2009
Quoting potteryX:
post 941. I see a PAIR of pin-hole eyes LOL
this is terrible....


Where's TAZ when you need him?
Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 10242
948. potteryX
1:04 PM GMT on August 26, 2009
post 941. I see a PAIR of pin-hole eyes LOL
this is terrible....
947. stormwatcherCI
1:04 PM GMT on August 26, 2009
Quoting Seflhurricane:
my point exactly and the system is still shallow wouldnt the trough not affect it as much ????
Navy has it at 23.8N 68.5W
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8344
946. StormJunkie
1:03 PM GMT on August 26, 2009
Quoting willdunc79:


We have Ft. Bragg, Charlotte, The Outer banks, and most importantly Mayberry (from The Andy Griffith Show) was based on a real & actual place in N.Carolina.


Whatever, we have Round O, which is much better then Mayberry...lmao ;)
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16501
945. IKE
1:03 PM GMT on August 26, 2009
Quoting Bonedog:
high clouds forming over the coc and convection wrapping around the northside



starting to get his act together the farther and farther from the ULL he gets


The center is exposed.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
944. tigerfanintexas
1:03 PM GMT on August 26, 2009
Quoting presslord:


All that is great...but we have Charleston...
And South is superior because the have a team in the SEC even though they aren't very significant. Mayebe if soon to be danny comes ashore in SC it could wash up some decent players for spurrier.
943. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
1:02 PM GMT on August 26, 2009
off to work i go check back in at lunch
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 170 Comments: 53767
942. TheCaneWhisperer
1:02 PM GMT on August 26, 2009
Quoting StormJunkie:
Bam models seem to be adjusting to the more WNW movement as opposed to NW...right now, this seems to not lead to landfall being more likely. They actually show it making it further W, but then having a much sharper and faster curve to the NE.


Heading due W, MAYBE a pinch N of Due W.
941. Bonedog
1:01 PM GMT on August 26, 2009
high clouds forming over the coc and convection wrapping around the northside



starting to get his act together the farther and farther from the ULL he gets
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
940. Orcasystems
1:01 PM GMT on August 26, 2009
There is an untasked HH in the system right now, so we should have better tracking soon

Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
939. nrtiwlnvragn
1:01 PM GMT on August 26, 2009
Quoting StormJunkie:
nrti, notice the difference in past track between the model plot you posted and the Navy image that keeper posted? What gives? No defined llc?

yep, I hear ya press. Never was disputing the validity of the statement.


Assume you are talking about my origional image from Raleigh Weather. I replaced it with the one from SFWMD since Raleigh did not have labels. Anyways, I think it just map scale. KOGs was from 06Z the other one 12Z. They both get their track from ATCF, so unless there was a change there, they should be the same.
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 11153

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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