Hurricane Hunters find 50 - 60 mph winds in disturbance 92L north of Puerto Rico

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 8:54 PM GMT on August 25, 2009

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The tropical wave (92L) a few hundred miles north of Puerto Rico is generating a large area of surface winds of 50 - 60 mph, according to the latest information from the Hurricane Hunters. Top winds seen so far at their flight level of 1,000 feet were 69 mph, which would make 92L a strong tropical storm if it had a surface circulation.
However, the aircraft has not found a surface circulation, and the satellite appearance shows virtually no change in the amount, intensity, or organization of the storm's thunderstorm activity. Wind shear has dropped to the moderate range, 15 - 20 knots this afternoon, but the upper low 92L is moving underneath is dumping cold, dry air into the region. Dry air continues to get ingested into 92L's thunderstorms, creating strong downdrafts that are robbing 92L of heat and moisture. These downdrafts are creating surface arc clouds that spread out from where the downdraft hits the ocean surface. NHC continues to give 92L a high (greater than 50% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Thursday afternoon.

The forecast for 92L
As 92L moves underneath the center of the upper low on Wednesday morning, the upper low is expected to weaken, and wind shear is expected to decline to the low range, 5 - 10 knots. However, the upper-level low will continue to dump dry, cold air into 92L through Thursday afternoon, slowing down development. By Thursday night, when 92L should be several hundred miles off the coast of northern Florida, the upper-level low may be weak enough and far enough away that 92L will find itself in a region with light upper level anticyclonic winds, which would favor more rapid development. However, this favorable environment will not last long, since a strong trough of low pressure will be approaching the U.S. East Coast on Friday. This trough will bring high wind shear of 20 - 30 knots by Friday night. This trough should be strong enough to turn 92L to the north. The models disagree substantially on how close 92L will be to the coast at that time. One camp of models, including the NOGAPS, Canadian, UKMET, and ECMWF models, predict 92L will pass very close to the Outer Banks of North Carolina on Friday night or Saturday morning. The GFS, GFDL, and HWRF models keep 92L several hundred miles out to sea. Both sets of models bring 92L north-northeastwards on Saturday, with a track over Massachusetts or Nova Scotia. The intensity forecast for 92L is problematic, since it's eventual strength depends upon how quickly it manages to become a tropical depression. Given that 92L will find itself in a favorable environment for strengthening for about 36 hours this week, and marginal for the remainder of the week, I give the system these odds:

10% chance of never getting a name.
20% chance of becoming a weak tropical storm (40 - 50 mph winds).
40% chance of becoming a strong tropical storm (55 - 70 mph winds).
30% chance of attaining hurricane strength.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic
The ECMWF and UKMET models predict the development of a tropical wave coming off the coast of Africa late this week. The GFS model no longer shows this.

I'll have an update Wednesday morning.

Jeff Masters

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Orca that loop is a bit concerning dont you think?
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Now that's the CMC we all remember from last year,glad they worked out the bugs.
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If 92l does develop with those winds already its gonna be much ado about a lot!! and in a hurry!
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92L lurking, threatening, maybe...and though the 50 knot winds the HH's found today raised a few eyebrows, still...nada.
Loop
To loosely quote Seinfeld, this season thus far is, 'a lot about nothing.'
This is good, of course, although some areas in the tropics are in dire need of rain.
Would like to see Dr. Masters do a blog on rain deficits in and around the Caribbean.
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hiya all!
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OceanMoan...check out post 558...another good one... :)
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No prob OceanMoan
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Vorticity


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Quoting tiggeriffic:
DONT FORGET THE BABY WIPES! Good for the pertainant parts and the pits...let's face it...those are what cause the stink...


I love it that people are willing to share tips like this on here. :-)
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580. bwat
L8r yall, gotta hit the hay. I'll check back in to see what 92L looks like in about 6 hours. Should of been a met, then I'd be getting paid for this!
Member Since: August 18, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 353
I shut my eyes...
the new stuff it up...weird one this 92L... they still have it as 92L but winds at 45mph
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578. jpsb
Quoting KEHCharleston:
Someone had said a Cat2 along the east coast could be comparable to a Cat4 in the gulf. I had asked why.BR


Who ever said that does not know what they are talking about. I've done hurricanes in Long Island (Sands Point) and hurricanes on the Texas Gulf Coast (Galveston Bay). Hurricanes are MUCH worse here in Texas, no comparison. MUCH WORSE. I'll take a cat 2 on Long Island over a (big) cat 4 in Texas anyday.
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My opinion...T.S watches/warnings for the Bahamas tomorrow.
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11453
Evening.

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Quoting tiggeriffic:
I was looking at a still pic...you showed me a animated model... :P

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/cmc/fcst/archive/09082512/64.html

is what i was looking at....



I like the animated ones.. adds a little life to it :)


Did you like the closing credits... THREE systems.
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
DONT FORGET THE BABY WIPES! Good for the pertainant parts and the pits...let's face it...those are what cause the stink...
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Hehe... well in my opinion, once this disturbance starts moving... specially with the help of a trough to transfer some energy into it, it will move fast enough that you won't know what hit you.
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I was looking at a still pic...you showed me a animated model... :P

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/cmc/fcst/archive/09082512/64.html

is what i was looking at....
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Sorry about continuing the TP conversation, but there are those practical things that you take for granted. Oh, and, STERNO rocks!
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Once an LLC forms, there will be some surprised people. I imagine if one does form soon enough, the Southern Bahamas would get a TS warning. There is some rotation apparent on satellite, but it is likely mid level.
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Unless people are totally not paying attention to T.V, radio or this blog...no one is going to be caught by surprise by what 92 does.
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11453
AHA...k...it was just my been there done that opinion but will give that as well... :)
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Good night! Check in on the tropics in the early morning....ugh!
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Quoting tiggeriffic:
Oh GEE, thanks a bunch ORCA!!!!


What did I do this time?
All I did was show you the models :)
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
If Phil Ferro is on this blog it is exciting. He is good at his job. If he is a fake than he will be exposed soon enough. I say welcome Phil!
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Quoting tiggeriffic:
your welcome but thank you for what? LOL...i must a missed somethin here...lol
Someone had said a Cat2 along the east coast could be comparable to a Cat4 in the gulf. I had asked why.

So you contributed to the discussion. Thanks!!

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Oh GEE, thanks a bunch ORCA!!!!
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Quoting Orcasystems:
Ok, I have say it.. this conversation is rapidly going down the toilet.. maybe it will be flushed by the next page.
there's been a lot of flushing for awhile now
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561. 900MB
I'm gonna hit the sack!
The 3 things that scare me most going to sleep are:
1- This thing is starting way West, so East Coast in jeopardy if this does anything.
2- 60mph winds and it's not even organized.
3- lack of prep and lack of notice.
Sleep tight y'all.
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your welcome but thank you for what? LOL...i must a missed somethin here...lol
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try going to places like krispy kreme and dunkin donuts...get the empty buckets they get their donut filling in...take em home, wash em out and fill em up...put the lids on...they sit low to the ground and filled with water weigh about 40 lbs or so...they don't tip over...line em up against a wall of your house and you have mountains of water...as u use one for washing in....use that water to pour down your toilet to flush it...etc.
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Quoting zingocat:
The wind blows dirt in any pool. Never seen a clean one after storm, only black. No matter how clean before. Horses like it especially with no electric fence to keep them in!


Shingles and roofing nails in the pool even after a strong cat 1.
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Quoting tiggeriffic:
just took a peek at the cmc model...funny thing is it started out being one of the ones closest to the east coast...moved out a bit and now is right back sweeping the coastline again...


This one isn't pretty at all... 3 of them at the end

cmc 2009082512 Forecast slp Java Animation
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
Quoting AussieStorm:
Valve Problem Scrubs Launch Try
A problem with a fill-and-drain valve inside the shuttle's aft compartment has scrubbed the Wednesday launch. The launch team has not yet set a new launch date and time.

Launch Team Targets Aug. 28 Launch

NASA is targeting space shuttle Discovery for a launch attempt Friday morning at 12:22 a.m., mission management team Chairman Mike Moses said. Engineers will evaluate a liquid hydrogen valve that developed problems during tanking operations Tuesday evening. Detailed test data about the valve will be examined before Discovery’s fuel tank is loaded with propellant ahead of Friday morning’s launch attempt.
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The wind blows dirt in any pool. Never seen a clean one after storm, only black. No matter how clean before. Horses like it especially with no electric fence to keep them in!
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Ok, I have say it.. this conversation is rapidly going down the toilet.. maybe it will be flushed by the next page.
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
just took a peek at the cmc model...funny thing is it started out being one of the ones closest to the east coast...moved out a bit and now is right back sweeping the coastline again...
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495. HopquickSteveAhhh. Thanks.

And Thanks also to Weathermandan and Tigger
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Quoting zingocat:
\

One thing you can be sure of: No store will have any toliet paper after a storm!! Just like after a big football game and the kids go wild in front of friends houses! Advice: fill bathtub with water and use bucket or just have a 5 gallon bucket to get water from that black pool outside. It flow is a problem, might have to wait for the sun to dry out yard. So it really doesn't matter what brand you use......as long as you have plenty!!



If you recycle your newspapers, it is best to keep a few issues in a dry place....
Member Since: September 22, 2005 Posts: 18 Comments: 2343
546. ackee
since 92L has gale force winds any chance if it does not get closed centre we see gale warning go in effect
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If you make sure the pool is clean BEFORE the storm, said pool can also be a mighty fine place for a bath while out of power for 12 days... and also water the neighbors cows :)
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Member Since: March 19, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1421
Brief Evening Blog Update:
Very Brief Blog Update
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Quoting HopquickSteve:


Please don't. How to say this tactfully? ... In a powerless posthurricane situation, humidity is way up with no A/C. Wiping one's tush with the soft stuff often frays and gets nasty. It was just bad all around. But of course, that's if you can use your plumbing and it's not backing up the sewer in your house. :) Any other opinions from survivors?
\

One thing you can be sure of: No store will have any toliet paper after a storm!! Just like after a big football game and the kids go wild in front of friends houses! Advice: fill bathtub with water and use bucket or just have a 5 gallon bucket to get water from that black pool outside. It flow is a problem, might have to wait for the sun to dry out yard. So it really doesn't matter what brand you use......as long as you have plenty!!

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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:

What a plume over houston.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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