Hurricane Hunters find 50 - 60 mph winds in disturbance 92L north of Puerto Rico

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 8:54 PM GMT on August 25, 2009

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The tropical wave (92L) a few hundred miles north of Puerto Rico is generating a large area of surface winds of 50 - 60 mph, according to the latest information from the Hurricane Hunters. Top winds seen so far at their flight level of 1,000 feet were 69 mph, which would make 92L a strong tropical storm if it had a surface circulation.
However, the aircraft has not found a surface circulation, and the satellite appearance shows virtually no change in the amount, intensity, or organization of the storm's thunderstorm activity. Wind shear has dropped to the moderate range, 15 - 20 knots this afternoon, but the upper low 92L is moving underneath is dumping cold, dry air into the region. Dry air continues to get ingested into 92L's thunderstorms, creating strong downdrafts that are robbing 92L of heat and moisture. These downdrafts are creating surface arc clouds that spread out from where the downdraft hits the ocean surface. NHC continues to give 92L a high (greater than 50% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Thursday afternoon.

The forecast for 92L
As 92L moves underneath the center of the upper low on Wednesday morning, the upper low is expected to weaken, and wind shear is expected to decline to the low range, 5 - 10 knots. However, the upper-level low will continue to dump dry, cold air into 92L through Thursday afternoon, slowing down development. By Thursday night, when 92L should be several hundred miles off the coast of northern Florida, the upper-level low may be weak enough and far enough away that 92L will find itself in a region with light upper level anticyclonic winds, which would favor more rapid development. However, this favorable environment will not last long, since a strong trough of low pressure will be approaching the U.S. East Coast on Friday. This trough will bring high wind shear of 20 - 30 knots by Friday night. This trough should be strong enough to turn 92L to the north. The models disagree substantially on how close 92L will be to the coast at that time. One camp of models, including the NOGAPS, Canadian, UKMET, and ECMWF models, predict 92L will pass very close to the Outer Banks of North Carolina on Friday night or Saturday morning. The GFS, GFDL, and HWRF models keep 92L several hundred miles out to sea. Both sets of models bring 92L north-northeastwards on Saturday, with a track over Massachusetts or Nova Scotia. The intensity forecast for 92L is problematic, since it's eventual strength depends upon how quickly it manages to become a tropical depression. Given that 92L will find itself in a favorable environment for strengthening for about 36 hours this week, and marginal for the remainder of the week, I give the system these odds:

10% chance of never getting a name.
20% chance of becoming a weak tropical storm (40 - 50 mph winds).
40% chance of becoming a strong tropical storm (55 - 70 mph winds).
30% chance of attaining hurricane strength.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic
The ECMWF and UKMET models predict the development of a tropical wave coming off the coast of Africa late this week. The GFS model no longer shows this.

I'll have an update Wednesday morning.

Jeff Masters

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StormW is that anything to watch in the SW carrb?
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understand texas...i posted earlier bout the GOM and NE USA thing...it also depends on the forward speed of the cane...a snail will do more damage with lower wind speeds that a fast mover with higher speeds...longevity means a lot with sustained winds.
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Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:


...um
I don't have TV (intentionally)
CRS
Hey, I was thinking more radio stuff anyway lol.

I rarely do the TV weather here, and the radio weather is usually someone from the met office reading a statement similar to the one I posted earlier.

But I'll take ur barometer reading for the time being....

Good night!
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just because everyone in Texas doesn't live elbow to a--ho-e doesn't mean we lost less than anywhere else that has been hit by a hurricane of any size.. Alot of people hit last year had their insurance policies and got screwed. When a homes value goes from 300,000.00 to 57,000.00 because a storm came in. Yah, house got a little damage but not whipped out like houses on either side. All being fairly new houses. It hurts everyone. Hurricane Ike was a cat 2 with a 600 mile span before it hit. Giving it the storm surge of a cat 4. Lets see how you far in that situation. Im not trying to be mean or rude just tired of hearing that Texas wasn't hit that bad and they are making it out to be worse than it was. Besides a storm could take my house if it meant a life was spared. A life is worth more than any possessions a person has. Believe me if a storm is coming to your area there will always be the ones that refuse to leave or believe it will turn another direction and people will lose their lives. Again not trying to be mean or rude. jmo
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all 92L needs is for the sheer to drop and it is forecast to do so...with the winds like they are now and low sheer...it is sure to wrap around pretty quick...
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Hey Tampa -Chicklit said ain't!! OMG its armegeddon!
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Quoting iceman55:
SevereHurricane why ?


The pattern mentioned by the HPC is favorable for a Hurricane to get into the Gulf of Mexico.
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627. flsky
Quoting atmoaggie:

My taste of that advice: Somehow make sure your tub will not slowly drain out with the stopper in place. Ours was empty within 12 hours after Gustav came through. And, we found that a kiddie pool with a little bit chlorine in it was just fine for the flushing! (with bucket for transport)

I love practical advice.
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92L the NYC cane?
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Quoting gordydunnot:
I don't like area in sw Caribbean seems to be drifting n to nw. With these troughs coming this far south, it reminding me of October.
I asked about this earlier an didnt get a response. looks interesting
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lol...Danny not a good name in my house...youngest is a Danny JR....and he has a temper worse than daddy... watching, waiting, and praying some of the models are right and keep it a ship storm...but with the cmc track...not liking the scenerio
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Friday's NHC forecast. Looks like they expect it to move further west if it doesn't strengthen....

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Quoting tiggeriffic:
it is just weird to have winds that high in an invest...realize still not organized but winds like those deserve a name...and the next name on the list is my hubby...and he has one heck of a temper...lol


o danny boy the pipes the pipes are callin you
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It ain't happenin' for 92L right now.
>Loop
Will have to check back in the morning.
Good night
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Baha

My Bar is still high, and "rose" when I just tapped it. What little breeze I have is still SE.

That's all for tonight. I'll see what Wed brings.

Goodnight.

CRS
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ruh rohh!

From the HPC

8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR SEP 02 - 08 2009


DURING WEEK TWO, THE GFS AND CANADIAN BASED ENSEMBLE MEANS FORECAST TROUGHS
OVER WESTERN ALASKA, ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE CONUS, AND OVER EASTERN NORTH
AMERICA AND A RIDGE IS PROGGED FOR WESTERN CANADA. SUBTROPICAL RIDGING IS
PREDICTED FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST U.S. AND OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE
CONUS. A WEAKNESS IN THIS SUBTROPICAL RIDGING IS FORECAST FOR THE GULF COAST
REGION.
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last coordinates at 8pm were .1N and 2.0 west...no where near wnw...more like wwwwnwww
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Quoting tiggeriffic:
it is just weird to have winds that high in an invest...realize still not organized but winds like those deserve a name...and the next name on the list is my hubby...and he has one heck of a temper...lol
Heard you say that a few days ago. Let's just hope if 92L does become Danny he won't have much of a temper. LOL
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8436
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
you must be out on a night pass huh
yeah i use this blog all the time. i look up to the wisemen in here and learn everyday. storm you rock dude. well so far this season ana was nothing she is my aunt. bill is my grandpa and he was all talk. dont have a claudette in the fam. but i do have two cousins named danny and ericka. so fun fun. you guys are awesome in here.
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It's raining here, right now, I guess part of the "popup" storms we've been getting due to the front to our west.

The local marine forecast says no significant weather expected in the Bahamas between now and the weekend. 'Twould be pleasant if it remains so....
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610. JRRP
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Quoting jasoniscoolman10:
92L WINDS 45 MPH..WOW.. now is moving wnw not nw anymore..


I don't think it was ever moving NW. Cloud motions indicated WNW.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 602 Comments: 21231
Quoting zingocat:
\

One thing you can be sure of: No store will have any toliet paper after a storm!! Just like after a big football game and the kids go wild in front of friends houses! Advice: fill bathtub with water and use bucket or just have a 5 gallon bucket to get water from that black pool outside. It flow is a problem, might have to wait for the sun to dry out yard. So it really doesn't matter what brand you use......as long as you have plenty!!


My taste of that advice: Somehow make sure your tub will not slowly drain out with the stopper in place. Ours was empty within 12 hours after Gustav came through. And, we found that a kiddie pool with a little bit chlorine in it was just fine for the flushing! (with bucket for transport)
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it is just weird to have winds that high in an invest...realize still not organized but winds like those deserve a name...and the next name on the list is my hubby...and he has one heck of a temper...lol
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Quoting jasoniscoolman10:
more to the west at 8pm...



As expected. The models did not initialize the steering flow very well.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 602 Comments: 21231
I don't like area in sw Caribbean seems to be drifting n to nw. With these troughs coming this far south, it reminding me of October.
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BTW, this is the current forecast for the SE Bahamas for tonight and tomorrow. Obviously local mets are not expecting much to happen for us from this system.

----------------------------------

Public Forecast Southeast Bahamas



WEATHER FORECAST OF THE BAHAMAS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT TUESDAY 25TH AUGUST 2009..........

GENERAL SITUATION: FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER NORTH/CENTRAL FLORIDA TRIGGERING SOME UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS WHILE A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE REMAIN OVER THE AREA.............

FOR SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS .............

WEATHER: PARTLY SUNNY, HOT AND STEAMY WITH FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS OR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE TODAY...FEW CLOUDS AND WARM TONIGHT WITH ISOLATED PASSING SHOWERS............

FOR THE BOATERS (ADVISORY): SMALL CRAFT SHOULD BE ALERT FOR GUSTY WINDS AND HIGHER SEAS IN OR NEAR HEAVY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.............

WINDS: EAST-NORTHEAST TO EAST-SOUTHEAST AT 12 TO 18 KNOTS....

SEAS RUNNING: 3 TO 6 FEET OVER THE OCEAN.........

OUTLOOK FOR THE BAHAMAS FOR WEDNESDAY: A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO MOVE EAST OF THE SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS, HOWEVER MOST OF THE WEATHER UNLIKELY TO AFFECT OUR ISLANDS AS IT REMAINS PARTLY SUNNY, HOT AND STEAMY WITH FEW SHOWERS..................
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roflmao....leave it to the keeper!
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Quoting noleweatherman:
i uv you guys! that whole tp thing got me going. i was thinking of beevis and butthead haha.i uv you guys! that whole tp thing got me going. i was thinking of beevis and butthead haha.i uv you guys! that whole tp thing got me going. i was thinking of beevis and butthead haha.
you must be out on a night pass huh
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Quoting BahaHurican:
Evening all.

CRS, have ur news guys made any comments about this approaching system on the local weather?

I've missed weather reports all day today :o(


...um
I don't have TV (intentionally)
CRS
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off topic...so sad...a 2year old and 3 month old died in fire in mobile home yesterday... mother only able to get one of her 3 children out of the home....neighbors tried in vain to put out the fire with garden hoses to save the babies...
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Evening all.

CRS, have ur news guys made any comments about this approaching system on the local weather?

I've missed weather reports all day today :o(
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Quoting rareaire:
If 92l does develop with those winds already its gonna be much ado about a lot!! and in a hurry!
with match comes fire
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i luv you guys! that whole tp thing got me going. i was thinking of beevis and butthead haha.
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592. JLPR
Quoting Orcasystems:


This one isn't pretty at all... 3 of them at the end

cmc 2009082512 Forecast slp Java Animation


yep not pretty at all
we should watch closely since the cmc seems to be getting good at predicting TC formation with the exception that it goes nuts with the intensity lol
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it appears in the last few loops an eye is trying to form a bit south of where they thought the center was...this may cause it to push a bit more west before that northward turn
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Quoting rareaire:
If 92l does develop with those winds already its gonna be much ado about a lot!! and in a hurry!

hehehe...love it when shakespeare re-enters the present!
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Orca that loop is a bit concerning dont you think?
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.