Hurricane Hunters find 50 - 60 mph winds in disturbance 92L north of Puerto Rico

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 8:54 PM GMT on August 25, 2009

Share this Blog
4
+

The tropical wave (92L) a few hundred miles north of Puerto Rico is generating a large area of surface winds of 50 - 60 mph, according to the latest information from the Hurricane Hunters. Top winds seen so far at their flight level of 1,000 feet were 69 mph, which would make 92L a strong tropical storm if it had a surface circulation.
However, the aircraft has not found a surface circulation, and the satellite appearance shows virtually no change in the amount, intensity, or organization of the storm's thunderstorm activity. Wind shear has dropped to the moderate range, 15 - 20 knots this afternoon, but the upper low 92L is moving underneath is dumping cold, dry air into the region. Dry air continues to get ingested into 92L's thunderstorms, creating strong downdrafts that are robbing 92L of heat and moisture. These downdrafts are creating surface arc clouds that spread out from where the downdraft hits the ocean surface. NHC continues to give 92L a high (greater than 50% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Thursday afternoon.

The forecast for 92L
As 92L moves underneath the center of the upper low on Wednesday morning, the upper low is expected to weaken, and wind shear is expected to decline to the low range, 5 - 10 knots. However, the upper-level low will continue to dump dry, cold air into 92L through Thursday afternoon, slowing down development. By Thursday night, when 92L should be several hundred miles off the coast of northern Florida, the upper-level low may be weak enough and far enough away that 92L will find itself in a region with light upper level anticyclonic winds, which would favor more rapid development. However, this favorable environment will not last long, since a strong trough of low pressure will be approaching the U.S. East Coast on Friday. This trough will bring high wind shear of 20 - 30 knots by Friday night. This trough should be strong enough to turn 92L to the north. The models disagree substantially on how close 92L will be to the coast at that time. One camp of models, including the NOGAPS, Canadian, UKMET, and ECMWF models, predict 92L will pass very close to the Outer Banks of North Carolina on Friday night or Saturday morning. The GFS, GFDL, and HWRF models keep 92L several hundred miles out to sea. Both sets of models bring 92L north-northeastwards on Saturday, with a track over Massachusetts or Nova Scotia. The intensity forecast for 92L is problematic, since it's eventual strength depends upon how quickly it manages to become a tropical depression. Given that 92L will find itself in a favorable environment for strengthening for about 36 hours this week, and marginal for the remainder of the week, I give the system these odds:

10% chance of never getting a name.
20% chance of becoming a weak tropical storm (40 - 50 mph winds).
40% chance of becoming a strong tropical storm (55 - 70 mph winds).
30% chance of attaining hurricane strength.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic
The ECMWF and UKMET models predict the development of a tropical wave coming off the coast of Africa late this week. The GFS model no longer shows this.

I'll have an update Wednesday morning.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 689 - 639

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20Blog Index

Retracted the dumb question.../
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Thanks for letting me know that.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
guys 92L has no SFC low with no SFC low they cant name it a TS the wind dont care how strong it is NO sfc low NO name storm
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115351
Quoting clearblueocean:
Why hasn't the NHC issued its latest on 92L yet? it only gives the 8pm report.


NHC does the TWO four times per day, and all in eastern time:

2 AM
8 AM
2 PM
8 PM

Ergo, next update will be at 2AM.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting clearblueocean:
Its 12:34 am where I'm at and still haven't seen the 11pm update.




on my time zone it dos not come out in tell 10:30pm
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115351
684. Prgal
Quoting scottsvb:



your a idiot!

Hmm, why "an idiot"? It says 45mph winds and its still an invest.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Its 12:34 am where I'm at and still haven't seen the 11pm update.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting stillwaiting:
any word on shuttle launch????




its a no go tonight they will try on wed night
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115351
Quoting clearblueocean:
Why hasn't the NHC issued its latest on 92L yet? it only gives the 8pm report.



they will at 11pm two
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115351
Why hasn't the NHC issued its latest on 92L yet? it only gives the 8pm report.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
NRAamy - what the heck did you get banned for?

Can't imagine of any misdeeds by you.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
well already an strong tropical storm wind invest,I wonder if it will reach a hurricane one strength invest>?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
any word on shuttle launch????
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting atmoaggie:

I know they have held up the works for a few minutes to do that before, but I cannot envision holding up GFS for hours.
Plus, GFS has all on time reports: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/prodstat_new/prdst_00_UTC_GFS.html

Like I said, I don't know what this might mean for the GFS run, hopefully nothing. Not sure how we will know whether or not it did, either (unless it does something really whacky).


Yeah, I saw a picture of it. 92L at 24 hours deepens to 875 mb, and then at 72 hours becomes a small singularity which sucks in the earth. LoL
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting HopquickSteve:
So every model that relies on GFS to initialize is just dead in the water?


No one knows at this point.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Hello ws
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
So every model that relies on GFS to initialize is just dead in the water?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
AMY!!!

Sorry, that deserved caps. :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
:)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
G'morning all.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
just the thought of storm coming your way or general area scares the he-- out of ya especially when you see it on here. So many people watch what gets posted on here. i have been reading this blog for about 5 years now and when it gets serious, this is the best place to keep informed. with the knowledge on this blog your chances are better with every discussion. thanks guys/gals; good night, see ya'll tomorrow
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting antonio28:
92L the NYC cane?

Well its not a "cane" so no.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
atmo - you mentioned something earlier regarding wind readings and land/shallow water.

Care to explain? Would appreciate it. TIA.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
664. Skyepony (Mod)
Atmo~ Yes that would be an unusual amount of time to hold that up. Guess we'll have to wait & see.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
atmoaggie
agreed
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
ok 1st time on here tonight had chores LOL but from what I am reading I think I am missing something tonight.... Can somebody fill me in Please with out going back and reading the blog...

Taco :0)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Wow ,,what an strong invest,45mph !!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
As am I. Heres to another day of, "we have no idea whats gonna happen"
Kman said yesterday that pre 93L might start pulling to the NW. Now post 93L looks like its trying to pull more N. Just an observation. Any thoughts?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Latest updates... and I am off to bed :)



AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI

Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
Quoting texascoastres:
Bahahurricane I understand that. but the part of the Gom that was hit is very populated at Galveston Bay and The Houston Ship Channel. The unpopulated areas are down between freeport/Matogorda bay to Corpus Christi. appreciate your opinion and knowledge. As I do others that post on here.

Believe me, most of the regulars in here know very well those names, like: Bolivar, Anahuac, Winnie, Baytown, Deer Park, Port O'Connor, etc. And over towards LA: PA, Bridge City, Orange, and even Groves, Nederland, Port Neches, and Orangefield.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Bahahurricane I understand that. but the part of the Gom that was hit is very populated at Galveston Bay and The Houston Ship Channel. The unpopulated areas are down between freeport/Matogorda bay to Corpus Christi. appreciate your opinion and knowledge. As I do others that post on here.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Skyepony:
atmo~ could they be trying to squeeze in recon data?

I know they have held up the works for a few minutes to do that before, but I cannot envision holding up GFS for hours.
Plus, GFS has all on time reports: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/prodstat_new/prdst_00_UTC_GFS.html

Like I said, I don't know what this might mean for the GFS run, hopefully nothing. Not sure how we will know whether or not it did, either (unless it does something really whacky).
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
654. Skyepony (Mod)
atmo~ could they be trying to squeeze in recon data?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I need to go back to bed..... lol

I don't know if I'll get a chance to look in in the a.m., but I'm sure hoping I only find a gusty shortwave when I do, and not an approaching TS....

Good night, ya'll.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I wonder if there isn't a problem with obs assimilation for the 0 UTC GFS. The 18 Z GDAS would go into it...I think (you here, nrt?), but the GDAS is reporting a >3 hours late status: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/prodstat_new/prdst_18_UTC_GDAS.html
Something is broke, but how broke and is it going to effect the 0 Z GFS, and thus GFDL and HWRF, I dunno. Hope not. Could be bad to have a funky 0 Z run when we might only have a few of those before some potential landfall.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
thats true too vortex95 they are calling as well
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
650. Skyepony (Mod)
I kind of wonder if the CMC doesn't end up working the ULL to the surface, joining it with the trough. I wish the 300vort worked there. CMC has really seen this from near 5 days before it formed & has been very insistent & pretty consistent. From the long before get go, far out preformed & now sitting about the top of the class in the model comparison which only goes back 24 hrs. Didn't care for the slight jog left last run. Definite concern for Bahamas & the Carolinas.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
iam out as well see ya in the am around 6 or so

later stormw and all
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting texascoastres:
just because everyone in Texas doesn't live elbow to a--ho-e doesn't mean we lost less than anywhere else that has been hit by a hurricane of any size.. Alot of people hit last year had their insurance policies and got screwed. When a homes value goes from 300,000.00 to 57,000.00 because a storm came in. Yah, house got a little damage but not whipped out like houses on either side. All being fairly new houses. It hurts everyone. Hurricane Ike was a cat 2 with a 600 mile span before it hit. Giving it the storm surge of a cat 4. Lets see how you far in that situation. Im not trying to be mean or rude just tired of hearing that Texas wasn't hit that bad and they are making it out to be worse than it was. Besides a storm could take my house if it meant a life was spared. A life is worth more than any possessions a person has. Believe me if a storm is coming to your area there will always be the ones that refuse to leave or believe it will turn another direction and people will lose their lives. Again not trying to be mean or rude. jmo
Hey, I feel u, man. I don't think anyone here is trying to downplay what happened w/Ike.

What I got from some of the earlier posts was that a weaker storm would do more damage in the NE simply because there is more per square mile TO damage. I don't think they meant that Texans didn't suffer as much.

Frankly, I think TX has an advantage in that there IS still so much of the coast that is relatively undeveloped. It takes a storm like Ike, with a direct hit on one of TX's three major population centres, to do the kind of financial damage that a cat 1 / cat 2 would do anywhere from, say, Jersey to Mass. It means TX has a better chance of a quick recovery than the NE coast.

In the end, though, it's the individual cost that people remember, the ones that went through it. I don't think a Texan who loses his home to a storm is going to feel it any less than a New Yorker would.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


Oh Danny boy the, trough's, the trough's are calling!!!
nite storm!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting rareaire:
Hey Tampa -Chicklit said ain't!! OMG its armegeddon!


YOU READS ME's MIND........LMAO
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Ive worked storms on the coast and the ones in texas I can assure you damage is damage. I can assure you as well no 2 canes are alike. Wilma small but like swinging a steel pipe, Katrina wide and dense lots of water and wind. Ive never rolled up to a site after a Hurricane and said wow that isnt too bad. To me the emotional toll far exceeds the fiscal damage.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
ok...going to bed...work at 7am...back tomorrow to see what the future of Danny holds
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
StormW is that anything to watch in the SW carrb?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 689 - 639

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.