Hurricane Hunters find 50 - 60 mph winds in disturbance 92L north of Puerto Rico

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 8:54 PM GMT on August 25, 2009

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The tropical wave (92L) a few hundred miles north of Puerto Rico is generating a large area of surface winds of 50 - 60 mph, according to the latest information from the Hurricane Hunters. Top winds seen so far at their flight level of 1,000 feet were 69 mph, which would make 92L a strong tropical storm if it had a surface circulation.
However, the aircraft has not found a surface circulation, and the satellite appearance shows virtually no change in the amount, intensity, or organization of the storm's thunderstorm activity. Wind shear has dropped to the moderate range, 15 - 20 knots this afternoon, but the upper low 92L is moving underneath is dumping cold, dry air into the region. Dry air continues to get ingested into 92L's thunderstorms, creating strong downdrafts that are robbing 92L of heat and moisture. These downdrafts are creating surface arc clouds that spread out from where the downdraft hits the ocean surface. NHC continues to give 92L a high (greater than 50% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Thursday afternoon.

The forecast for 92L
As 92L moves underneath the center of the upper low on Wednesday morning, the upper low is expected to weaken, and wind shear is expected to decline to the low range, 5 - 10 knots. However, the upper-level low will continue to dump dry, cold air into 92L through Thursday afternoon, slowing down development. By Thursday night, when 92L should be several hundred miles off the coast of northern Florida, the upper-level low may be weak enough and far enough away that 92L will find itself in a region with light upper level anticyclonic winds, which would favor more rapid development. However, this favorable environment will not last long, since a strong trough of low pressure will be approaching the U.S. East Coast on Friday. This trough will bring high wind shear of 20 - 30 knots by Friday night. This trough should be strong enough to turn 92L to the north. The models disagree substantially on how close 92L will be to the coast at that time. One camp of models, including the NOGAPS, Canadian, UKMET, and ECMWF models, predict 92L will pass very close to the Outer Banks of North Carolina on Friday night or Saturday morning. The GFS, GFDL, and HWRF models keep 92L several hundred miles out to sea. Both sets of models bring 92L north-northeastwards on Saturday, with a track over Massachusetts or Nova Scotia. The intensity forecast for 92L is problematic, since it's eventual strength depends upon how quickly it manages to become a tropical depression. Given that 92L will find itself in a favorable environment for strengthening for about 36 hours this week, and marginal for the remainder of the week, I give the system these odds:

10% chance of never getting a name.
20% chance of becoming a weak tropical storm (40 - 50 mph winds).
40% chance of becoming a strong tropical storm (55 - 70 mph winds).
30% chance of attaining hurricane strength.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic
The ECMWF and UKMET models predict the development of a tropical wave coming off the coast of Africa late this week. The GFS model no longer shows this.

I'll have an update Wednesday morning.

Jeff Masters

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yes I belive there are women that handle those waves. Basically I belive its more mental then physical in heavy days. There have been times I have seen even the saltiest guy get rattled and go back in for a break. Its amazing that heavy surf and big surf are not synonomus(sp).
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It looks like there maybe a upper level or mid level circulation around 24N 66W
Member Since: February 27, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 482
Quoting Bonedog:
Next year unfortunatly =( Probaly April sometime =(

Have the wedding this October so all funds heading that way and to the honeymoon.

Second job is now keeping me quite busy so when I finally do catch a break we will be heading south without fail.


Good!!! Keep me posted....there is always a board for you here!
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leftovers very true. Now-a-days everyone belives the leash is a life line. I have had days where they have snapped and had to swim in through heavy sets. Biggest thing is not panicking, most folks do unfortunatly.
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Quoting Bonedog:
LOL surfmom. good keeping the youngin beached during the worst. Takes alot to stop them when the surf is up.

as far as not obeying or beliving in the power of water. Its amazing how many folks got into trouble and the sad deaths that occured. Even novice surfers got into trouble with Bill, friends and I pulled a few groms out ourselves. Besides the wicked rips the surf was just so heavy, dont remeber the last "heavy" day this far north. 16 sec period swells make for a very hard day up here LOL.


16 sec!!!! LIKE A HAMMER!!! -- it was fun to see the "men" ripping it up and the groms -too young and inexperienced having to watch, if they were smart. I scouted around for pics on my blog... and the guys out in the waves are Seasoned Veterans..... just love those Salty Dogs!!

Do you think that there are any woman who can handle that kind of power??? Just seems that at a certain point, Surfing -becomes a MEN'S DAY ONLY- sport.....
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Quoting surfmom:


NOOOOOO!! My mango, avocados, lime, bananas, bandit chickens --who not appreciate that one bit....

I mean what BeachBunny wants to wear a snow suit???




The change is nice.. I love the beach but a nice fall or a winter that is not to harsh would be great.. I hate having Christmas when its in the high 80's or sweating your but off on halloween eve while trick or treating. LOL..
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Next year unfortunatly =( Probaly April sometime =(

Have the wedding this October so all funds heading that way and to the honeymoon.

Second job is now keeping me quite busy so when I finally do catch a break we will be heading south without fail.
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LOL surfmom. good keeping the youngin beached during the worst. Takes alot to stop them when the surf is up.

as far as not obeying or beliving in the power of water. Its amazing how many folks got into trouble and the sad deaths that occured. Even novice surfers got into trouble with Bill, friends and I pulled a few groms out ourselves. Besides the wicked rips the surf was just so heavy, dont remeber the last "heavy" day this far north. 16 sec period swells make for a very hard day up here LOL.
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Quoting Bonedog:
surfmom I agree with you as well. I remeber 10 years ago Venice was mostly farmland especially along jacaranda and center now its all cookie cutter developments with 40 to 60 percent unsold =( If they left it all farm it would be a much cooler area.

I remeber not too long ago nights where we needed sweatshirts or light jackets due to the temp drop. Now its mostly short sleeves due to the lack of temp change.



When you coming back to visit? --the Lady of the gulf is calling you...LOL
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Quoting lurkn4yrs:



Good morning! It actually snowed here in homestead about an inch in the 70's. Wouldn't that be great!


NOOOOOO!! My mango, avocados, lime, bananas, bandit chickens --who not appreciate that one bit....

I mean what BeachBunny wants to wear a snow suit???
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SPECIAL FEATURES...
A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 27N67W 24N69W 21N69W...MOVING
WESTWARD ABOUT 15 KT.
GALE FORCE WINDS ARE WITHIN 150 NM OF
24N69W IN THE NORTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE. THE DATA FROM THE AIR
FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE THAT FLEW THROUGH THIS AREA
DURING THE TIMES FROM 25/1900 UTC UNTIL 25/2100 UTC DID NOT
SHOW A CLOSED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AT THE SURFACE, BUT THE
27N67W 21N69W SURFACE TROUGH. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH ALSO JUST HAPPENS TO BE IN THE SAME NEIGHBORHOOD
AS THE SURFACE TROUGH AND THE AREA OF GALE-FORCE WINDS.
SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN FROM 23N TO 26N BETWEEN 64W AND 69W. SHOWERS ALSO COVER
THE REST OF THE AREA FROM HAITI TO 32N BETWEEN 63W AND 75W.
IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A TROPICAL CYCLONE MAY FORM IN THIS AREA
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
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Quoting Bonedog:
surfmom Bill was awsome up here. 10-15 double overhead light breeze :) bad rips though, seen several day tripers be taken out be guards. People just don't obey the flags.

If 92L wraps up and becomes Danny and follows the CMC we get slammed, any other model and it looks like another great wave day.


People don't obey, believe or understand the power of water -- most just think of how pretty and have no clue of the weight and power of HEAVY WATER.

Had a huge Head-butt w/my son... he wanted to go out on Saturday (drive from the gulf side over to the east side)but I put my foot down....NO! Sunday was perfect... just enough spice to test him in the AM and then glassy in the afternoon. His first trip w/out me..... fretted the whole time
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surfmom I agree with you as well. I remeber 10 years ago Venice was mostly farmland especially along jacaranda and center now its all cookie cutter developments with 40 to 60 percent unsold =( If they left it all farm it would be a much cooler area.

I remeber not too long ago nights where we needed sweatshirts or light jackets due to the temp drop. Now its mostly short sleeves due to the lack of temp change.

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Quoting kachina:


I'm not a native Floridian, but my co-workers who are tell me that back in the 50's and 60's it wasn't as hot in Florida as it is now. I've even been told about snow flurries in Broward County!




Good morning! It actually snowed here in homestead about an inch in the 70's. Wouldn't that be great!
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Good morning...

Well, first evidence seen on Shortwave SAT Imagery of a LLC @24.5N69.5W.

Convection can be seen on the E periphery of the low being sheared still by the TUTT to is SSW.

Still moving slowly to the WNW and should remain doing so for the time being unless it builds deeper convection:

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Quoting surfmom:


True..... all the asphalt and concrete has made a lot of difference,and rain patterns have changed with the drainage of swamps, ponds, wet lands -- personally I'd like to see the malls all returned (they're all EMPTY NOW anyway and look like air conditioned morgues ) to parks and greenbelts.....


:) I'm with you on returning the malls...more open areas - parks and greenbelts would be beautiful!
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Quoting kachina:


I'm not a native Floridian, but my co-workers who are tell me that back in the 50's and 60's it wasn't as hot in Florida as it is now. I've even been told about snow flurries in Broward County!



True..... all the asphalt and concrete has made a lot of difference,and rain patterns have changed with the drainage of swamps, ponds, wet lands -- personally I'd like to see the malls all returned (they're all EMPTY NOW anyway and look like air conditioned morgues ) to parks and greenbelts.....
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770. IKE
Quoting K8eCane:
anybody want some homemade pancakes and link country sausage?


Heck yes. My wife made me that the other morning. I love pancakes and sausage.

Looks like 92L has a ways to go.
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surfmom Bill was awsome up here. 10-15 double overhead light breeze :) bad rips though, seen several day tripers be taken out be guards. People just don't obey the flags.

If 92L wraps up and becomes Danny and follows the CMC we get slammed, any other model and it looks like another great wave day.
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Quoting Weather456:
Good Morning

Invest 92L heads west-northwes updated

Nice blog 456
Member Since: February 27, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 482
Good Morning

Invest 92L heads west-northwes updated
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Mikla - hummmm ..there's that one pink line....plowing right through my neighborhood.....

Decisions, decisions - 92L - a repeat performance or a creative left- What shall Mother Nature decide?

guess I'll stay tuned
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I believe I see a LLC starting/trying to form at 24.9 N 68 W does anyone else see this?
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Patiently awaiting the visible shots - doesn't it appear that there are several circulations centers at different latitudes and the system is not vertically stacked?
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Quoting surfmom:


only the the dedicated would - I say ban AC -- weed out the lightweights and the mall shoppers. Let's go back to the Old Natural Florida - *giggle*

Oops Good Morning... got my young son out on a dive boat - spearfishing in the Gulf -- due for some weather this afternoon (?) so I'll be watching the water.



I'm not a native Floridian, but my co-workers who are tell me that back in the 50's and 60's it wasn't as hot in Florida as it is now. I've even been told about snow flurries in Broward County!

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Quoting Bonedog:
looks like I poped back in at the right time. If the CMC is to be belived I am getting wacked this weekend :)


get your board out my man, and seek revenge!! I bet Leftover's is still smiling from riding Hurricane Bill. I know my kid is.
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anybody want some homemade pancakes and link country sausage?
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Quoting IKE:
6Z NOGAPS......keeps 92L mainly offshore.


6Z GFS.....is offshore w/92L...

Too close for comfort
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758. eddye
i think 92 l will head towards south fla because the models cant handle this system
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looks like I poped back in at the right time. If the CMC is to be belived I am getting wacked this weekend :)
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756. IKE
Quoting surfmom:
Morning Ike -- thanks for the trackmap... looks like another one making a repeat performance


Good morning......
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755. Mikla
92L w/ models, mid & upper shear...
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754. IKE
6Z NOGAPS......keeps 92L mainly offshore.


6Z GFS.....is offshore w/92L...
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Quoting eddye:
92l goes towards fl dont belive the models


the two-legged kind or the spaghetti ones?? LOL
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752. eddye
92l goes towards fl dont belive the models
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Morning Ike -- thanks for the trackmap... looks like another one making a repeat performance
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Looks like potential waves for you again this weekend Leftovers.... I'm twitching here on the gulf-- so flat it's slick..... and 91 degrees.... the ingredient for trouble are there -it's just waiting for a seeding to get going......
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.
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748. IKE
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Quoting leftovers:
litestar hey there. if we did not have a/c not too many people would live here. not much on the near horizon to worry about storm wise there is all kind of storms 92 is no exception


only the the dedicated would - I say ban AC -- weed out the lightweights and the mall shoppers. Let's go back to the Old Natural Florida - *giggle*

Oops Good Morning... got my young son out on a dive boat - spearfishing in the Gulf -- due for some weather this afternoon (?) so I'll be watching the water.

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Good Morning - any signs of this thing getting a low level circulation?
Member Since: February 27, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 482
Check back later in the afternoon.
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If the NHC named it, I would think they would call it Tropical Storm Danny. None of the Dvorak readings call it subtropical, plus in their TWO they said it could become a Tropical Storm at any time.
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Per NHC:

"Subtropical Cyclone:
A non-frontal low pressure system that has characteristics of both tropical and extratropical cyclones. This system is typically an upper-level cold low with circulation extending to the surface layer and maximum sustained winds generally occurring at a radius of about 100 miles or more from the center. In comparison to tropical cyclones, such systems have a relatively broad zone of maximum winds that is located farther from the center, and typically have a less symmetric wind field and distribution of convection."


Sounds like 92L to me.
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goodmoring leftovers nice morning here in Fla. how about you? nice weather?
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NIght all!
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.