Hurricane Hunters find 50 - 60 mph winds in disturbance 92L north of Puerto Rico

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 8:54 PM GMT on August 25, 2009

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The tropical wave (92L) a few hundred miles north of Puerto Rico is generating a large area of surface winds of 50 - 60 mph, according to the latest information from the Hurricane Hunters. Top winds seen so far at their flight level of 1,000 feet were 69 mph, which would make 92L a strong tropical storm if it had a surface circulation.
However, the aircraft has not found a surface circulation, and the satellite appearance shows virtually no change in the amount, intensity, or organization of the storm's thunderstorm activity. Wind shear has dropped to the moderate range, 15 - 20 knots this afternoon, but the upper low 92L is moving underneath is dumping cold, dry air into the region. Dry air continues to get ingested into 92L's thunderstorms, creating strong downdrafts that are robbing 92L of heat and moisture. These downdrafts are creating surface arc clouds that spread out from where the downdraft hits the ocean surface. NHC continues to give 92L a high (greater than 50% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Thursday afternoon.

The forecast for 92L
As 92L moves underneath the center of the upper low on Wednesday morning, the upper low is expected to weaken, and wind shear is expected to decline to the low range, 5 - 10 knots. However, the upper-level low will continue to dump dry, cold air into 92L through Thursday afternoon, slowing down development. By Thursday night, when 92L should be several hundred miles off the coast of northern Florida, the upper-level low may be weak enough and far enough away that 92L will find itself in a region with light upper level anticyclonic winds, which would favor more rapid development. However, this favorable environment will not last long, since a strong trough of low pressure will be approaching the U.S. East Coast on Friday. This trough will bring high wind shear of 20 - 30 knots by Friday night. This trough should be strong enough to turn 92L to the north. The models disagree substantially on how close 92L will be to the coast at that time. One camp of models, including the NOGAPS, Canadian, UKMET, and ECMWF models, predict 92L will pass very close to the Outer Banks of North Carolina on Friday night or Saturday morning. The GFS, GFDL, and HWRF models keep 92L several hundred miles out to sea. Both sets of models bring 92L north-northeastwards on Saturday, with a track over Massachusetts or Nova Scotia. The intensity forecast for 92L is problematic, since it's eventual strength depends upon how quickly it manages to become a tropical depression. Given that 92L will find itself in a favorable environment for strengthening for about 36 hours this week, and marginal for the remainder of the week, I give the system these odds:

10% chance of never getting a name.
20% chance of becoming a weak tropical storm (40 - 50 mph winds).
40% chance of becoming a strong tropical storm (55 - 70 mph winds).
30% chance of attaining hurricane strength.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic
The ECMWF and UKMET models predict the development of a tropical wave coming off the coast of Africa late this week. The GFS model no longer shows this.

I'll have an update Wednesday morning.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting StormJunkie:
nrti, notice the difference in past track between the model plot you posted and the Navy image that keeper posted? What gives? No defined llc?

yep, I hear ya press. Never was disputing the validity of the statement.


Assume you are talking about my origional image from Raleigh Weather. I replaced it with the one from SFWMD since Raleigh did not have labels. Anyways, I think it just map scale. KOGs was from 06Z the other one 12Z. They both get their track from ATCF, so unless there was a change there, they should be the same.
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938. 7544
anyone know if the new data is in these model runs or next batch coming in
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Orca, I was talking about the PAST track difference between nrti's image in post 911., which has now been changed (lol); and keeper's image in post 916.
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Quoting presslord:


All that is great...but we have Charleston...


We have Ft. Bragg, Charlotte, The Outer banks, and most importantly Mayberry (from The Andy Griffith Show) was based on a real & actual place in N.Carolina.
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Bam models seem to be adjusting to the more WNW movement as opposed to NW...right now, this seems to not lead to landfall being more likely. They actually show it making it further W, but then having a much sharper and faster curve to the NE.
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I was just on accuweather on one of the blogs videos..and well they are calling for cat 2 storm according to one of the models..I think the canadian model..how reliable is the canadian model..from what Ive seen this year, the ECWMF has been great in the tracks in these storms but is the canadian model known for intensity?
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Quoting StormJunkie:
nrti, notice the difference in past track between the model plot you posted and the Navy image that keeper posted? What gives? No defined llc?

yep, I hear ya press. Never was disputing the validity of the statement.


I know I wouldn't trust any of these models yet.. they have no idea where the centre is... when the HH was there yesterday.. it was well to the west of where they thought it was.

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Quoting presslord:


All that is great...but we have Charleston...
And the Luv Gov

I will return to Charleston where Beauty and Charm abound - Rhett Butler
I may not have the quote exactly right

Trust me, the idea of South Carolina and North Carolina joining, did NOT originate here.
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nrti, notice the difference in past track between the model plot you posted and the Navy image that keeper posted? What gives? No defined llc?

yep, I hear ya press. Never was disputing the validity of the statement.
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Quoting presslord:


yea...but I fear you're encouraging bad behavior in the children...


Me?? S&I :)
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Quoting MahFL:
If the center forms where it appears to be, ie more south and west than before, would that increase the chances of a FL landfall ?
my point exactly and the system is still shallow wouldnt the trough not affect it as much ????
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Quoting Orcasystems:


You said last year... Carols is ok?


yea...but I fear you're encouraging bad behavior in the children...
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Quoting presslord:


AAARRRGGGHHH!!!


Have they initialized the COC yet? It's hard to be confident of a track; but I am sure Florida is out of the woods on this one.
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Quoting bonovoix:


Considering N. Carolina is way more advanced with RTP, Duke University, UNC and Charlotte. You would think S. Carolina would be jumping all over that. IMO.


All that is great...but we have Charleston...
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Quoting presslord:


AAARRRGGGHHH!!!


You said last year... Carols is ok?
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261206Z AUG 09
FM NMFC
TO FNM
BT
UNCLAS
MSGID/NMFC/OVLY2/0238/AUG
OVLY/TCFA/261201Z2/AUG/1OF1/TCFA AL9209/METOC
LINE/2//G/234800N7/0683600W3/300600N9/0744200W7
LINE/2//G/244800N8/0671200W6/224200N0/0700000W7
LINE/2//G/224200N0/0700000W7/290000N1/0761200W6
LINE/2//G/290000N1/0761200W6/310600N0/0731200W3
LINE/2//G/310600N0/0731200W3/244800N8/0671200W6
TEXT/20//G/214200N9/0714200W4/TCFA AL9209
TEXT/20//G/204200N8/0714200W4/VALID UNTIL 271201Z
TEXT/20//G/194200N6/0714200W4/WINDS: 30-35 KTS
TEXT/20//G/184200N5/0714200W4/MVG: WNW AT 15 KNOTS
ENDAT
BT
#0001
NNNN

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 175 Comments: 54847
WTNT01 KNGU 261201
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 261201Z AUG 09//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 23.5N 68.5W TO 30.0N 75.0W
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 30 TO 35 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 261200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 24.5N 69.5W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15
KNOTS.
2.REMARKS: AT 26/12Z LATEST INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES AN ELON-
GATED AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER WITH A CLOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
PRESENT, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 470NM EAST OF NASSAU IN THE BAHAMAS.
NUMEROUS CLUSTERS OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ARE LOCATED ON THE NORTHERN
THROUGH EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS AREA. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE
RANGING FROM 27 TO 29 DEGREES CELSIUS ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC.
UPPER LEVEL WINDS OVER THE SYSTEM ARE SOUTHERLY 20 TO 25 KTS. HOWEVER,
UPPER-LEVEL WINDSHEAR IS DECREASING NORTHWESTWARD OF THIS AREA OF
DISTURBED WEATHER AS IT CONTINUES TO TRACK TOWARDS AN ENVIRONMENT
WHERE CONDITIONS BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT.
3. THIS ALERT IS VALID UNTIL BY 271200Z AUG 09.
//

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 175 Comments: 54847
Quoting willdunc79:
It's funny hearing people get upset about others lumping North & South Carolina together when way back in the day they were actually talking about making N.C. & S.C. one and calling it the New South. It goes without saying a lot of people didn't like it so the idea was scrubbed.


Considering N. Carolina is way more advanced with RTP, Duke University, UNC and Charlotte. You would think S. Carolina would be jumping all over that. IMO.
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Quoting Orcasystems:
CMC has 92 hitting the Carols outer banks.. and two more systems in the Atlantic.


AAARRRGGGHHH!!!
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00Z and 06Z WRF has an EC Runner with 92L
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917. MahFL
If the center forms where it appears to be, ie more south and west than before, would that increase the chances of a FL landfall ?
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Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 175 Comments: 54847
915. IKE
BAM models keep it offshore.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
CMC has 92 hitting the Carols outer banks.. and two more systems in the Atlantic.
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Morn all looks like he's just about primed and ready to be TD'd also on a side note they scrubbed the shuttle launch again due to bad valves :(
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Quoting StormJunkie:
899. You're looking to get on presslord's good side aren't ya?

Will be interesting to see if 92L makes landfall in the New South ....lmao


he was already on my good side...but, in this case, he's also absolutely correct...
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WCTI12 - The area of disturbed weather located northeast of Puerto Rico is forecast to become a tropical depression or tropical storm in the next 48 hours. There is quite a range in the projected track of this system. Some of the computer models keep it well offshore and others want to take it from south to north right over eastern NC late Friday night into Saturday. I want to give it another day to see if the models to come in to better allignment. At any rate, our seas will begin increasing starting Thursday and we have the potential for some 8 foot waves by Thursday night into Friday. If the disturbance approaches us from the south on Friday, we will see rain, heavy at times for Friday night and much of Saturday.

WITN:
A strong tropical wave located about 350 miles or so north of Hispaniola is expected to slowly strengthen today and tomorrow possibly becoming a tropical depression or even a tropical storm. The tropical low is expected to pass somewhere between the North Carolina coastline, to a couple hundred miles offshore late Friday into early Saturday. The track of the low could bring eastern Carolina anything from breezy conditions with a few showers to a wet and windy forecast depending on the strength and track of the storm. How the tropical wave evolves through the day Wednesday into Wednesday night should give us a good idea of what we may expect by late week.



Hardly sounds like they are sure it will be off coast.
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899. You're looking to get on presslord's good side aren't ya?

Will be interesting to see if 92L makes landfall in the New South ....lmao
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Quoting ncstorm:


Well..Im from Wilmington and the local mets have been reporting on it..its a wait and see event..expect the worst but hope for the best
Yep.. As I say, the magnetic north for East Coast Tropical Storms. We will be watching with you. This may be a close one for y'all, and it behooves us in the SC Lowcountry to keep a eye on this disturbance as well.
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CHGHUR

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

1241 UTC WED AUG 26 2009



DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.



ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR



DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL922009) 20090826 1200 UTC



...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...

090826 1200 090827 0000 090827 1200 090828 0000



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 24.6N 70.0W 25.6N 72.2W 26.3N 73.9W 27.1N 75.2W

BAMD 24.6N 70.0W 25.4N 71.7W 25.9N 73.2W 26.5N 74.5W

BAMM 24.6N 70.0W 25.5N 71.8W 26.1N 73.3W 26.8N 74.5W

LBAR 24.6N 70.0W 26.0N 72.0W 27.1N 73.7W 28.6N 74.9W

SHIP 40KTS 43KTS 48KTS 53KTS

DSHP 40KTS 43KTS 48KTS 53KTS



...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...

090828 1200 090829 1200 090830 1200 090831 1200



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 27.9N 76.0W 30.3N 75.7W 33.5N 72.5W 38.7N 69.3W

BAMD 27.8N 75.4W 32.5N 74.2W 38.4N 67.5W 44.1N 50.2W

BAMM 28.0N 75.2W 31.8N 73.9W 36.1N 68.8W 42.0N 60.2W

LBAR 30.1N 75.4W 34.0N 73.6W 40.3N 66.2W 45.9N 46.8W

SHIP 60KTS 69KTS 76KTS 73KTS

DSHP 60KTS 69KTS 76KTS 73KTS



...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 24.6N LONCUR = 70.0W DIRCUR = 295DEG SPDCUR = 16KT

LATM12 = 23.3N LONM12 = 66.7W DIRM12 = 288DEG SPDM12 = 17KT

LATM24 = 21.7N LONM24 = 63.3W

WNDCUR = 40KT RMAXWD = 90NM WNDM12 = 40KT

CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M

RD34NE = 120NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



$$

NNNN
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 175 Comments: 54847
Quoting kmanislander:


24N 70W


Isn't that the old ULL? That same area has been moving SW for a couple of days now. Could it have gone to the surface?
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Quoting Seflhurricane:
can i please get a link to the gfdl model run or to the latest model runs


The FSU Site is good for graphical output, and the S Florida Water Management site is good for spaghetti plots. Find both of those sites and the other most used tracking sites here.

Morning Pearland, good to see you
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Blog Update
Reflector site for those at work, which includes Weather456, daily update.


AOI

AOI

AOI
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901. IKE
Quoting Seflhurricane:
can i please get a link to the gfdl model run or to the latest model runs


Link
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
I'm feeling very safe here in Florida this morning after looking at the WV loops and seeing that massive trough stalled out right over the state. Very strategic of Crist.
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It's funny hearing people get upset about others lumping North & South Carolina together when way back in the day they were actually talking about making N.C. & S.C. one and calling it the New South. It goes without saying a lot of people didn't like it so the idea was scrubbed.
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898. IKE
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
AL 92 2009082612 BEST 0 246N 700W 40 1009 DB


I see the COC now on the 1215UTC visible...completely exposed at those coordinates.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
Hey presslord.

I thought of you this morning when I was reading a story about two people that were swept out to sea in their boat during Bill. They made it back alive.

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Quoting Bonedog:
hmmm looking at the names why am I worried about Grace all of a sudden =/



Because Grace helped make the perfect storm?
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can i please get a link to the gfdl model run or to the latest model runs
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GM,I see 92L is still status quo,needs to get rid of that upper low before it can do anything
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Quoting KEHCharleston:
As Press says, it is not the Carolinas, it is either North Carolina or South Carolina. Our neighbors to the North, stick out like a sore thumb. I have always thought of Wilmington as the magnetic north for east coast storms. Folks from OBX, Wilmington know the drill. IF 92L/Danny runs a bit more west up the coast, I would be surprised if they get caught unprepared.

NWS for Charleston:
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST OVER THE FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY TIME FRAME GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR A TROPICAL SYSTEM
TO HAVE AN INFLUENCE ON LOCAL WEATHER CONDITIONS AS IT PASSES WELL
EAST OF THE AREA. THE DISTURBANCE WELL NORTH OF HISPANIOLA IS
EXPECTED TO PASS WELL OFF THE GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA COASTS
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...BEFORE LIFTING NORTHEAST TOWARD THE
VICINITY OF THE OUTER BANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA ON SATURDAY.
THE
NAM...CANADIAN AND ECMWF ALL APPEAR TO BE SIMILARLY CLUSTERED WITH
REGARDS TO THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM...WITH THE GFS APPEARING TO BE
A BIT OF AN EASTERN OUTLIER. THE ULTIMATE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM WILL
BE DEPENDENT ON HOW DEEP AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BECOMES OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AND HOW QUICKLY IT LIFTS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. WHILE THE TROUGH COULD BRING UNSETTLED
WEATHER TO THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...LARGE SCALE
SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
TROPICAL SYSTEM COULD HAVE AN EFFECT BY LIMITING THE EXTENT OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA. UNTIL CONFIDENCE IN HOW THE SYSTEM
EVOLVES AND TRACKS INCREASES... WILL LIMIT THE PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION TO A CHANCE BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD ALSO REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD.


Well..Im from Wilmington and the local mets have been reporting on it..its a wait and see event..expect the worst but hope for the best
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AL 92 2009082612 BEST 0 246N 700W 40 1009 DB
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hmmm looking at the names why am I worried about Grace all of a sudden =/
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thanks SJ =)
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.