Hurricane Hunters find 50 - 60 mph winds in disturbance 92L north of Puerto Rico

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 8:54 PM GMT on August 25, 2009

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The tropical wave (92L) a few hundred miles north of Puerto Rico is generating a large area of surface winds of 50 - 60 mph, according to the latest information from the Hurricane Hunters. Top winds seen so far at their flight level of 1,000 feet were 69 mph, which would make 92L a strong tropical storm if it had a surface circulation.
However, the aircraft has not found a surface circulation, and the satellite appearance shows virtually no change in the amount, intensity, or organization of the storm's thunderstorm activity. Wind shear has dropped to the moderate range, 15 - 20 knots this afternoon, but the upper low 92L is moving underneath is dumping cold, dry air into the region. Dry air continues to get ingested into 92L's thunderstorms, creating strong downdrafts that are robbing 92L of heat and moisture. These downdrafts are creating surface arc clouds that spread out from where the downdraft hits the ocean surface. NHC continues to give 92L a high (greater than 50% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Thursday afternoon.

The forecast for 92L
As 92L moves underneath the center of the upper low on Wednesday morning, the upper low is expected to weaken, and wind shear is expected to decline to the low range, 5 - 10 knots. However, the upper-level low will continue to dump dry, cold air into 92L through Thursday afternoon, slowing down development. By Thursday night, when 92L should be several hundred miles off the coast of northern Florida, the upper-level low may be weak enough and far enough away that 92L will find itself in a region with light upper level anticyclonic winds, which would favor more rapid development. However, this favorable environment will not last long, since a strong trough of low pressure will be approaching the U.S. East Coast on Friday. This trough will bring high wind shear of 20 - 30 knots by Friday night. This trough should be strong enough to turn 92L to the north. The models disagree substantially on how close 92L will be to the coast at that time. One camp of models, including the NOGAPS, Canadian, UKMET, and ECMWF models, predict 92L will pass very close to the Outer Banks of North Carolina on Friday night or Saturday morning. The GFS, GFDL, and HWRF models keep 92L several hundred miles out to sea. Both sets of models bring 92L north-northeastwards on Saturday, with a track over Massachusetts or Nova Scotia. The intensity forecast for 92L is problematic, since it's eventual strength depends upon how quickly it manages to become a tropical depression. Given that 92L will find itself in a favorable environment for strengthening for about 36 hours this week, and marginal for the remainder of the week, I give the system these odds:

10% chance of never getting a name.
20% chance of becoming a weak tropical storm (40 - 50 mph winds).
40% chance of becoming a strong tropical storm (55 - 70 mph winds).
30% chance of attaining hurricane strength.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic
The ECMWF and UKMET models predict the development of a tropical wave coming off the coast of Africa late this week. The GFS model no longer shows this.

I'll have an update Wednesday morning.

Jeff Masters

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I think by late tomorrow or Thursday we'll have Danny. One of these weird systems like Fay & Dolly no west winds = no closed circulation= no TD or TS
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Danny could come tomorrow, but right now there is nothing really going on with possible surface circulation development. I am going to watch the Red Sox now.
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Quoting 954FtLCane:

ok you spelled seriously wrong

; )
Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 2490
Quoting breald:


He has some personality. Nothing wrong with that. Besides he wasn't that far off with the Bill.

Let's not forget that it was him and his companions at Inaccuweather that got the idiot senator from PA to submit that bill that would have done away with NWS and left forecasting to private companies like Inaccuweather.
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Quoting Houstonian:
If you want people to really take you seriosuly here.... you have to learn to speak (type) proper english

ok you spelled seriously wrong
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Quoting Nickelback:
TWC Says There is no Chance in Soon to be Danny to hit FL!! So Stop FLCasting. Still uncert about the track but NC/VA Should keep an Eye on the system


There is NO soon to be Danny.
There is ONLY 92L.
Until the NHC says Danny has been born, there is NO Danny!
Comprende?

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Meanwhile, space cadets...

from Mark Kelly: http://twitter.com/ShuttleCDRKelly

ShuttleCDRKelly
about 5 hours ago from Tweetie

In meeting for new Orion spacecraft. Picture from the road last week. Pulled over in NM for speeding. http://yfrog.com/6785352034j


NASA ORION Capsule pulled over for speeding!





[edit] I did put in "image" but it won't stay hotlinked.
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Evening All,
Someone mentioned a Hanna look a like situation ... Floodman I think, now that one really caught us with our pants down last year!
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All we need is a COC and we have trouble...
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Quoting Funkadelic:


In my opinion he is an annoying person. His voice is just unbearable... Not to mention that he is on steroids lol


He has some personality. Nothing wrong with that. Besides he wasn't that far off with the Bill.
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NWS Discussion for Long Island
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
MODELS TRENDING TOWARDS BETTER AGREEMENT WITH POTENTIAL COASTAL
STORM FOR THE WEEKEND. 12Z ECMWF SUPPORTS USING HPC/TPC COORDINATED
POSITIONING (ACTUALLY ENDS UP AMAZINGLY CLOSE TO THOSE POSITIONS
WHICH WERE DERIVED COMPLETELY WITHOUT BENEFIT OF THE MODEL AT 16Z -
ITS ACTUALLY A BLEND OF THE 00Z CMC/00Z ECMWF/00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE
MEAN SHIFTED TO THE EAST SLIGHTLY IN SOME DEFERENCE TO THE GFS/GEFS.

THIS TRACK WOULD TAKE THE COASTAL LOW JUST TO THE SE OF LONG ISLAND
SATURDAY NIGHT.

KEY TO THE FORECAST IS IMPACT OF THE CUTOFF LOW CURRENTLY DRIFTING
SW INTO LOUISIANA...AND THEN IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AND HEAD
BACK EAST BY THE END OF THE WEEK. 12Z ECMWF NO LONGER HAS ISSUE THAT
00Z ECMWF HAD WITH MAKING THIS UPPER LOW THE DOMINATE SYSTEM...AND
ESSENTIALLY ABSORBING THE SURFACE CIRCULATION OF THE COASTAL LOW
WHILE MAINTAINING THE DISCREET 7H/5H VORT OFFSHORE. THE 12Z
ECMWF...LIKE THE 12Z CMC NOW JUST HAVE THIS CUTOFF LOW HELP STEER
THE COASTAL LOW TOWARDS THE COAST...BUT ULTIMATELY ABSORB IT INTO
THE STRONGER COASTAL SYSTEM. THE GFS IS LIKELY TO FAR EAST WITH ITS
SYSTEM AS IT HISTORICALLY UNDERESTIMATES THE WESTERN EXTENT/STRENGTH
OF THE MID-ATLANTIC SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM
(ALLOWING IT TO RE-CURVE TOO FAR EAST AND TOO QUICKLY).

IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER...EXPECT WARM ADVECTION PRECIPITATION
FRIDAY NIGHT (ASSOCIATED WITH 850 WARM FRONT LIFTING N - WENT WITH
SLOWER CMC/GFS TIMING AS IT IS MOST CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS
THINKING). THEN LIKELY POPS SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT WITH COASTAL
LOW. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH GUSTY WINDS
AS THE LOW PASSES.
Member Since: February 27, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 482
Quoting Drakoen:
HH have gone down to 23N and have found no west winds. The system does not have a closed low.
no name for this one yet
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To whom it concerns: it's a rain/wind storm right now and who really knows what it will be and whether or not someone races home, logs on from work, or uses their mind powers to log on without a computer really doesn't concern you that much. This is a blog where people can make guesses/observations/assumptions all they want to it's definitely not nobody else's place to make that call but if someone is going to make assumptions as long as they & everyone else knows thats what it is then it should be fine. if no one is inciting a riot or mass hysteria then let it be so anytime you're ready step down off that broom stick handle and let people be as long as they're not hurting anybody else.
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Quoting sammywammybamy:



Automated Message: ITS NOT EVEN A DEPRESSION .. NO NEED TO CAUSE PANIC..
Clap Clap Lurk Off....Say, this is what you could call "OVERCAST" Conditions...lol just kidding not a flame ok,clap clap lurk on,( Clap on.. Clap Off... The Lurker).........
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Quoting Nickelback:
TWC Says There is no Chance in Soon to be Danny to hit FL!! So Stop FLCasting. Still uncert about the track but NC/VA Should keep an Eye on the system


Okay, well if TWC says it, I guess everyone in FL can stop worrying...LOL
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Quoting Funkadelic:
The Gulf of mexico, and Florida should really pay attention to the wave that will be SW of the Cape verde islands friday.


I'm interested in hearing your reasoning about this potential wave and potential track. Thanks
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HH have gone down to 23N and have found no west winds. The system does not have a closed low.
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Quoting Drakoen:
It's so funny, you can tell when everyone gets off work and runs to this blog with their predictions. WOW it's moving west gonna hit Fla, no way it's moving wnw gonna hit SC. All day long the experts are at work to keep all of us informed.. Settle down guys. It's just a big rainy windy storm. You will survive!
Member Since: August 30, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 104
I think this sums up 92L perfectly(for right now) http://flhurricane.com/
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TWC Says There is no Chance in Soon to be Danny to hit FL!! So Stop FLCasting. Still uncert about the track but NC/VA Should keep an Eye on the system
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159. bwat
we are a little guilty of thinking "what if" when you have a few models bringing something your way. In a way its kind of a good thing, because although you may not be preparing for a landfall, you sure got it planned out in the back of your mind. Prepare for the worst, hope for the best. It's not an old saying because its false.
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158. IKE
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


I think thats a different system. The one the ECMWF has is still in the central atlantic at 240 hours. GFS has a similar system that goes north of Puerto Rico, at least thats what I see.


ECMWF seems slower with it. Shows it SW of the Cape Verde's on Friday. That would be about where the latest GFS shows it.

GFS shows zonal flow in 240 hours...10 days...no troughs...watch out further west in the Atlantic basin!.....

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
Quoting IKE:
18Z GFS shows......the wave/low, that the ECMWF picks up on, moving through the ATL, then moving through PR by next Monday and continuing west....


I think thats a different system. The one the ECMWF has is still in the central atlantic at 240 hours. GFS has a similar system that goes north of Puerto Rico, at least thats what I see.
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 15 Comments: 11343
just stay out of the GoM, 92L!
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Quoting IKE:


Holy Guacamole !!!!
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Quoting sammywammybamy:
** SWB FLORIDA WISHCASTER DETECOR WENT OFF **

Automated Message : NO FLORIDA WISHCASTING...

Automated Message : NO GULF OF MEXIO WISHCASTING

Automated Message : NO NEW YORK WISHCATING

Automated Message : GROW UP


Automated answer: my Florida wishcast; the Gators go 0 & 12, the ukmet says its a possibility and the GFL ... well its the GFL
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Quoting ConchHondros:


Now THATS funny



Thanks! I just calls 'em as I sees 'em
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Quoting kanc2001:


no doubt im in NE SC and if this puppy goes into rapid intensification mode once conditions get more favorable there isnt going to much time for the average joe to prepare/evac


Been there before. Sometimes you gotta follow your gut before the officials say anything. Just keep an eye on it. Not that I have to tell y'all that. What kinda gives me an uneasy feeling is that to me some of the models don't move this very much, if at all for a while. Don't know maybe I'm wrong. Just hate when these sit and spin.
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151. IKE
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
IKE that's about the northernmost thunderstorm cluster I've ever seen in West Africa! Good to know the Sahel is getting rain this year, no drought! :)


That's a heck of a cluster of thunderstorms.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
Quoting Floodman:


In a lot of ways he's stormtop with a real job...


Now THATS funny

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146. IKE
18Z GFS shows......the wave/low, that the ECMWF picks up on, moving through the ATL, then moving through PR by next Monday and continuing west....
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
---
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Quoting breald:


Hey if it wasn't for him all we would hear about is Florida and the GOM. I don't think he is that bad.


In a lot of ways he's stormtop with a real job...

If it's moving like it's a GOM or FL storm, then that's what everyone will talk about. His problem is that EVERY storm is east coast hit
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Quoting mobilegirl81:
Could someone please verify whether or not the trough is trying to slit near Jacksonville, FL?


Is actually happening in the C Gulf Coast region... if you look at the WV loops you'll see it.
Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 5038
Quoting bwat:
Just heard the local forecast on tv here in NE NC, they talked about 92L for about 20 seconds saying that it is still a long ways out. Friday night isnt THAT far out. Well, guess they didnt want to cause panic. But 30% chance of it being a hurricane will sure keep me on my toes.


no doubt im in NE SC and if this puppy goes into rapid intensification mode once conditions get more favorable there isnt going to much time for the average joe to prepare/evac
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Where is the google map thing showing HH readings?
Member Since: August 22, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1462
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So what is the general consensus on here regarding development on 92L? Can we expect a ramping up off the system tonight or will development be slow to occur?
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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