Hurricane Hunters find 50 - 60 mph winds in disturbance 92L north of Puerto Rico

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 8:54 PM GMT on August 25, 2009

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The tropical wave (92L) a few hundred miles north of Puerto Rico is generating a large area of surface winds of 50 - 60 mph, according to the latest information from the Hurricane Hunters. Top winds seen so far at their flight level of 1,000 feet were 69 mph, which would make 92L a strong tropical storm if it had a surface circulation.
However, the aircraft has not found a surface circulation, and the satellite appearance shows virtually no change in the amount, intensity, or organization of the storm's thunderstorm activity. Wind shear has dropped to the moderate range, 15 - 20 knots this afternoon, but the upper low 92L is moving underneath is dumping cold, dry air into the region. Dry air continues to get ingested into 92L's thunderstorms, creating strong downdrafts that are robbing 92L of heat and moisture. These downdrafts are creating surface arc clouds that spread out from where the downdraft hits the ocean surface. NHC continues to give 92L a high (greater than 50% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Thursday afternoon.

The forecast for 92L
As 92L moves underneath the center of the upper low on Wednesday morning, the upper low is expected to weaken, and wind shear is expected to decline to the low range, 5 - 10 knots. However, the upper-level low will continue to dump dry, cold air into 92L through Thursday afternoon, slowing down development. By Thursday night, when 92L should be several hundred miles off the coast of northern Florida, the upper-level low may be weak enough and far enough away that 92L will find itself in a region with light upper level anticyclonic winds, which would favor more rapid development. However, this favorable environment will not last long, since a strong trough of low pressure will be approaching the U.S. East Coast on Friday. This trough will bring high wind shear of 20 - 30 knots by Friday night. This trough should be strong enough to turn 92L to the north. The models disagree substantially on how close 92L will be to the coast at that time. One camp of models, including the NOGAPS, Canadian, UKMET, and ECMWF models, predict 92L will pass very close to the Outer Banks of North Carolina on Friday night or Saturday morning. The GFS, GFDL, and HWRF models keep 92L several hundred miles out to sea. Both sets of models bring 92L north-northeastwards on Saturday, with a track over Massachusetts or Nova Scotia. The intensity forecast for 92L is problematic, since it's eventual strength depends upon how quickly it manages to become a tropical depression. Given that 92L will find itself in a favorable environment for strengthening for about 36 hours this week, and marginal for the remainder of the week, I give the system these odds:

10% chance of never getting a name.
20% chance of becoming a weak tropical storm (40 - 50 mph winds).
40% chance of becoming a strong tropical storm (55 - 70 mph winds).
30% chance of attaining hurricane strength.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic
The ECMWF and UKMET models predict the development of a tropical wave coming off the coast of Africa late this week. The GFS model no longer shows this.

I'll have an update Wednesday morning.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting jipmg:


Maybe a strong Sub tropical storm, Water temperatures arent the only factors in storm development

Yeah, I don't know how to tell what GFS is figuring on. Omega?
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Quoting Houstonian:


no need to worry.. obviously, just a TYPO and not EBONICS

If you're gonna critic
Quoting Houstonian:
I dont know what a dustcaster is??

but its obvious .. LOOK AT IT

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a dustcaster is when some one says there a lot of dust but there not
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Quoting Houstonian:
East Coast of the United States, you should begin paying attention to the tropical disturbance north and east of Puerto Rico.


You don't need to wait for an official declaration of a named storm to begin preparing for a storm to impact you by the end of the week.

The disturbance is steadily getting more organized today.

At this point - you have to throw out the idea of whether this entity will ever be named "Danny". Heck, it may never even be deemed a tropical cyclone. But really, it doesn't matter at this point.

What you should be doing is preparing for a storm system of some form which could very well produce very heavy rains and ensuing flooding for the Mid-Atlantic region by Friday and Saturday of this week. Flooding rains may spread farther north into New York State and parts of southern New England.

Of course if this disturbance does quickly organize into a tropical storm or hurricane by week's end, flooding won't be the only problem. At that point we would have to deal with damaging winds and widespread power outages.

Hurricane Hunters are investigating this disturbance right now and will discover how far along it is; that is, is it still a tropical wave or has it developed some semblance of a closed circulation. If that's the case, it would likely be deemed a depression.



I am already prepared, even though I live more inland from VA Beach in Richmond however, one cannot let their guard down.
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Quoting KerryInNOLA:
Because of the overwhelming demand and support for my teams amazing forecasts, I have decided to allow the boys to forecast for the busy and critical month of September. Our team efforts have lead to such predictions in June as"Our long term prediction continues to point to a slow season with NO hurricanes entering the GOM. " and on Tues Aug 18 "We have just finished analyzing the new data and can say with confidence that TD 2 will not enter the Gulf" and on Wed aUg 19 when Bill was a mere wave near the Azores "We have analyzed today's data and model runs and forecast TD 2 to not develop beyond TS status as it curves out to sea. Furthermore, our models are indicating "TD 3" will be influenced by a trough around 65-70W and begin a curve to the north. Currently it is uncertin if this northward curve will happen soon enough to cause the possible hurricane to return harmlessly to sea. Current analysis points to a 25-35% chance for the storm to touch the US mainland . The cone of uncertainty currently is rather large. The storm may also encounter significant wind shear as it approaches the Antilles." All these statements can be verified in Dr Masters archives.
I will be releasing equally accurate forecasts in one or two days as the team analyses allthe data and model runs and feeds them through our algorhythms. as always we offer these products at NO COST to the public.Talk to you soon again. Kerry and the team.
for real?
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233. JLPR
Dust seems to be behind the wave exiting now but look in front of it =S



no dust! =( the other wave ate it up so this one at the coast has good chances at developing
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Quoting Tazmanian:




this is a blog not a SHOUTing room


go shout in the chat room
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Quoting juniormeteorologist:
92L will not be a Bill track, Local Mets in SC think it will be well west then what the computer models are predicting, and I think it will be an strong tropical storm or weak Cat1 hurricane by time it gets on the SC and NC coast line


Hi juniormeterologist,
Charleston, here.

Which mets?

NWS for Charleston:
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
12Z GUIDANCE AGREES THAT A TROPICAL LOW WILL TURN TOWARD THE N/NE
AND WILL PASS EAST OF THE REGION
LATE THIS WEEK/EARLY THIS WEEKEND.
HOWEVER...THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM AND THE LONGITUDE OF THE N/NE
TURN REMAIN HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. AS OF TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THE MOST
LIKELY IMPACTS...IF ANY...WOULD INCLUDE SOME DEGREE OF ENHANCED
WINDS/BUILDING SEAS OVER COASTAL WATERS.
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230. jipmg
Quoting atmoaggie:

Of course you would like that one...

GFS waits until 40 N to really develop some intensity?!?

GFS sux at intensity, but geez, that is really goofy.

OHC not really favorable after about 35 N:


Maybe a strong Sub tropical storm, Water temperatures arent the only factors in storm development
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229. JLPR
Quoting Tazmanian:
if that wave dont start moveing soon that biger wave will eat it up that this about too come off


yep but they seem distant enough to keep themselves separate
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If you want to shout at least learn how.

And NOLA-dude, thanks for confirming that you are what we thought you were.
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the dustcaster are out i see
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if that wave dont start moveing soon that biger wave will eat it up that this about too come off
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225. JLPR
Quoting Houstonian:


look at all of that dust!!


yep the wave behind the one at the shore has some dust eating to do xD
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Quoting Floodman:


Nice avatar...

Of course you would like that one...

GFS waits until 40 N to really develop some intensity?!?

GFS sux at intensity, but geez, that is really goofy.

OHC not really favorable after about 35 N:
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Quoting KerryInNOLA:
Because of the overwhelming demand and support for my teams amazing forecasts, I have decided to allow the boys to forecast for the busy and critical month of September. Our team efforts have lead to such predictions in June as"Our long term prediction continues to point to a slow season with NO hurricanes entering the GOM. " and on Tues Aug 18 "We have just finished analyzing the new data and can say with confidence that TD 2 will not enter the Gulf" and on Wed aUg 19 when Bill was a mere wave near the Azores "We have analyzed today's data and model runs and forecast TD 2 to not develop beyond TS status as it curves out to sea. Furthermore, our models are indicating "TD 3" will be influenced by a trough around 65-70W and begin a curve to the north. Currently it is uncertin if this northward curve will happen soon enough to cause the possible hurricane to return harmlessly to sea. Current analysis points to a 25-35% chance for the storm to touch the US mainland . The cone of uncertainty currently is rather large. The storm may also encounter significant wind shear as it approaches the Antilles." All these statements can be verified in Dr Masters archives.
I will be releasing equally accurate forecasts in one or two days as the team analyses allthe data and model runs and feeds them through our algorhythms. as always we offer these products at NO COST to the public.Talk to you soon again. Kerry and the team.
your detailed flush model anal of information has out perform you
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221. JLPR


Courtesy of Keeper's blog :0)
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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Almost there..

25/1745 UTC 23.3N 64.8W T1.5/1.5 92L -- Atlantic



thats old
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Almost there..

25/1745 UTC 23.3N 64.8W T1.5/1.5 92L -- Atlantic
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Quoting RufusBaker:
Some people might no be able to hear thats why I SHOUT




this is a blog not a SHOUTing room
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92L will not be a Bill track, Local Mets in SC think it will be well west then what the computer models are predicting, and I think it will be an strong tropical storm or weak Cat1 hurricane by time it gets on the SC and NC coast line
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Quoting Tazmanian:
can we all try not too ues caps


and if i was the Admin i would ban any one for uesing the caps for 15hrs uesing the caps is called yelling


Also spelling...

I am actually a little worried about this one, since the extended models don't show it hitting the East coast. IIRC, Bill's models at one point showed East Coast Conus landfall.
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Interesting, the EWP shows the MJP upward motion over the Caribbean and EATL for all of September.
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Some people might no be able to hear thats why I SHOUT
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Quoting stormhank:
anyone have a link to the ECMWF model run page?? Thanks

ECMWF
Member Since: February 27, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 482
Quoting RufusBaker:
92L= BILL TRACK SO CALM DOWN


It still could impact the east coast with rain and wind, maybe a landfall? I highly disagree with you.
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anyone have a link to the ECMWF model run page?? Thanks
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can we all try not too ues caps


and if i was the Admin i would ban any one for uesing the caps for 15hrs uesing the caps is called yelling
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Wow look at the ITZ it is dead!
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000
ABNT20 KNHC 252317
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT TUE AUG 25 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE AREA
OF DISTURBED WEATHER ABOUT 350 MILES NORTH OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
FOUND A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE BUT DID NOT FIND A CLOSED
CIRCULATION. HOWEVER...THE AIRCRAFT DID REPORT GALE-FORCE WINDS IN
THE AREA. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE
FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A
TROPICAL STORM AT ANY TIME
AS IT CONTINUES MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AROUND 20 MPH. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...
OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. INTERESTS
IN THE BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON MARINE WARNINGS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER
FZNT01 KWBC.

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92L= BILL TRACK SO CALM DOWN
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202. OBXNC
"predict 92L will pass very close to the Outer Banks of North Carolina on Friday night or Saturday morning. "

Hey! That's me! <:-O

Hi everyone.

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200. JLPR
yeah 92L is pretty interesting but the wave just off shore is beginning to look like a problem =\



it is developing new convection now that it is off shore, it has an anticlone over it, proving low shear, it has almost no SAL to hinder its development, it has a decent 850mb vorticity, it has some divergence and convergence
The only thing im not sure of is the SST in the area
anyone got a map for those?
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well they say it could close off and form a tropical cyclone at anytime
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Keep an eye on ex93L could stir trouble down the road imo.
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195. N3EG
We could always just name it "Tropical Blob Doofus" ahead of it even having a closed circulation.
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8 pm Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook is up.

Surface trough of low pressure, gale force winds, but no closed circulation.
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Quoting 954FtLCane:

ok you spelled seriously wrong


Now that's gosh darn funny right there
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Quoting Funkadelic:


Well for one the conditions will be good for tropical formation. By the time this Wave/ or possible storm approaches the islands next week, the High should be back in place and according to some models there should not be any troughs to lift it north away from the CONUS.

Some as of right now im thinking a due west track with a hint of WNW will be the track for the next 76-94 hours. Again this is very far out but it is worth keeping an eye on it.

I am thinking you might be correct. This system you are talking about could mature during a period of a negative NAO and lower trade winds over the tropical Atlantic.
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Quoting SQUAWK:

Let's not forget that it was him and his companions at Inaccuweather that got the idiot senator from PA to submit that bill that would have done away with NWS and left forecasting to private companies like Inaccuweather.


I am not familiar with any of that. All I can say is I don't dislike the guy.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.