Hurricane Hunters find 50 - 60 mph winds in disturbance 92L north of Puerto Rico

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 8:54 PM GMT on August 25, 2009

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The tropical wave (92L) a few hundred miles north of Puerto Rico is generating a large area of surface winds of 50 - 60 mph, according to the latest information from the Hurricane Hunters. Top winds seen so far at their flight level of 1,000 feet were 69 mph, which would make 92L a strong tropical storm if it had a surface circulation.
However, the aircraft has not found a surface circulation, and the satellite appearance shows virtually no change in the amount, intensity, or organization of the storm's thunderstorm activity. Wind shear has dropped to the moderate range, 15 - 20 knots this afternoon, but the upper low 92L is moving underneath is dumping cold, dry air into the region. Dry air continues to get ingested into 92L's thunderstorms, creating strong downdrafts that are robbing 92L of heat and moisture. These downdrafts are creating surface arc clouds that spread out from where the downdraft hits the ocean surface. NHC continues to give 92L a high (greater than 50% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Thursday afternoon.

The forecast for 92L
As 92L moves underneath the center of the upper low on Wednesday morning, the upper low is expected to weaken, and wind shear is expected to decline to the low range, 5 - 10 knots. However, the upper-level low will continue to dump dry, cold air into 92L through Thursday afternoon, slowing down development. By Thursday night, when 92L should be several hundred miles off the coast of northern Florida, the upper-level low may be weak enough and far enough away that 92L will find itself in a region with light upper level anticyclonic winds, which would favor more rapid development. However, this favorable environment will not last long, since a strong trough of low pressure will be approaching the U.S. East Coast on Friday. This trough will bring high wind shear of 20 - 30 knots by Friday night. This trough should be strong enough to turn 92L to the north. The models disagree substantially on how close 92L will be to the coast at that time. One camp of models, including the NOGAPS, Canadian, UKMET, and ECMWF models, predict 92L will pass very close to the Outer Banks of North Carolina on Friday night or Saturday morning. The GFS, GFDL, and HWRF models keep 92L several hundred miles out to sea. Both sets of models bring 92L north-northeastwards on Saturday, with a track over Massachusetts or Nova Scotia. The intensity forecast for 92L is problematic, since it's eventual strength depends upon how quickly it manages to become a tropical depression. Given that 92L will find itself in a favorable environment for strengthening for about 36 hours this week, and marginal for the remainder of the week, I give the system these odds:

10% chance of never getting a name.
20% chance of becoming a weak tropical storm (40 - 50 mph winds).
40% chance of becoming a strong tropical storm (55 - 70 mph winds).
30% chance of attaining hurricane strength.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic
The ECMWF and UKMET models predict the development of a tropical wave coming off the coast of Africa late this week. The GFS model no longer shows this.

I'll have an update Wednesday morning.

Jeff Masters

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AL 92 2009082600 BEST 0 233N 667W 40 1010 DB
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Quoting Tazmanian:



am not sure i think pat has the most commets follow by me


I figured it was you or Pat.
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000
WHXX01 KWBC 260040
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0040 UTC WED AUG 26 2009

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL922009) 20090826 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
090826 0000 090826 1200 090827 0000 090827 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 23.3N 66.7W 24.9N 69.5W 26.4N 71.6W 27.6N 73.2W
BAMD 23.3N 66.7W 24.8N 68.7W 26.1N 70.5W 27.1N 72.0W
BAMM 23.3N 66.7W 24.7N 68.9W 26.1N 70.7W 27.3N 72.1W
LBAR 23.3N 66.7W 24.9N 68.9W 26.5N 70.6W 27.9N 72.2W
SHIP 40KTS 49KTS 58KTS 65KTS
DSHP 40KTS 49KTS 58KTS 65KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
090828 0000 090829 0000 090830 0000 090831 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 28.9N 74.2W 31.8N 74.7W 35.8N 69.8W 39.8N 60.1W
BAMD 28.2N 73.2W 32.7N 73.4W 39.0N 67.5W 44.3N 52.6W
BAMM 28.6N 73.1W 32.6N 73.2W 38.1N 67.8W 42.9N 55.3W
LBAR 29.3N 72.9W 33.0N 72.5W 38.0N 68.0W 42.7N 54.3W
SHIP 72KTS 84KTS 90KTS 73KTS
DSHP 72KTS 84KTS 90KTS 73KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 23.3N LONCUR = 66.7W DIRCUR = 300DEG SPDCUR = 16KT
LATM12 = 21.7N LONM12 = 63.3W DIRM12 = 310DEG SPDM12 = 20KT
LATM24 = 18.4N LONM24 = 59.9W
WNDCUR = 40KT RMAXWD = 120NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 120NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



92L winds are up too 40kt or 45mph it all so takes 92L up too 90kt be for land fall on the NC coast all so all the modes on this up date takes it too a hurricane
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114652
Quoting connie1976:
I don't always understand...so I ask... :)


and when we ask, we learn even more so its all good lol
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Gulf of Mexico - SRQ - 91 degrees....soupa'
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I don't always understand...so I ask... :)
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Quoting JupiterFL:


Sorry, let me try again.
Do you have more comments then anyone else on the blog?



am not sure i think pat has the most commets follow by me
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114652
332. flsky
Quoting connie1976:
I haven't heard about 93L...where is that at?


Please check the graphics on the Tropical page B4 posting. You can get a lot information there that has already been discussed.
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Quoting Vortex95:
Orca i'm sure your well aware all that goes into the box does not hit Florida as well as the fact that all doesnt have to enter the box to hit Florida. That considerds both boxes.



I know.. but I thought I would throw it out there.. you know me... S&I :)
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
Quoting Tazmanian:



blogs history??


Sorry, let me try again.
Do you have more comments then anyone else on the blog?
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Quoting stormpetrol:

Got that right, but we do need one or 2 days of all Island rain real bad.
I tell you. The heat is unbelievable. I don't remember it being this hot in a very long time.
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12Z CMC along with the GFS show twin EPAC cylones at 120 hours (the second one being ex-93L), however the GFS doesnt agree with the CMC developing twin Cape Verde storms.
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Quoting JupiterFL:


Taz,
Do you have the most comments in the blogs history?



blogs history??
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114652
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Too close to home.

Got that right, but we do need one or 2 days of all Island rain real bad.
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309. stormpetrol 12:34 AM GMT on August 26, 2009
Said it before , but I'll say it again ex93L split and slowly but surely working its way off Honduras into the NW Caribbean, might yet be the one to watch imo.


i've benn watching that myself...some of the past models had it splitting in 2..alot of wet stuff to play with...and hot sst's...
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Quoting Tazmanian:
i have made 35,000 commets from the time i started uesing this name


i sing up with this name in 2006


Taz,
Do you have the most comments in the blogs history?
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Quoting connie1976:
I haven't heard about 93L...where is that at?
SW Caribbean
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321. JLPR
Quoting Relix:


It all depends when, how strong and how the high reforms.


yep
that pesky high
I hope it is taking a vacation when this possible storm develops lol
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Quoting stormpetrol:
Said it before , but I'll say it again ex93L split and slowly but surely working its way off Honduras into the NW Caribbean, might yet be the one to watch imo.
Too close to home.
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Thanks Orcasystem!! You know more then I do!!
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317. JRRP
hmm
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i have made 35,000 commets from the time i started uesing this name


i sing up with this name in 2006
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114652
315. JLPR
Quoting KerryInNOLA:
CMC has major hit on NE coast in 4 days


I hadnt noticed the CMC also the develops the wave off shore in Africa
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314. Relix
Quoting JLPR:


yep apparently
but the storm hasn't formed yet
so time to watch it and see what it ends up doing
....if it does anything


It all depends when, how strong and how the high reforms.
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I haven't heard about 93L...where is that at?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:


AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
Quoting Orcasystems:


It is further to the west of track then they thought.. and to add to the paranoia... it went thru the box. But I have my doubts


First and foremost... my forecasting ability is ZERO. I can track.. and read weather maps and models.. thats it...

Forecasting is Weather456 and StormW's forte... not mine.. I don't even pretend to know forecasting like some others on here.

When in doubt.. believe the NHC :)

Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
Said it before , but I'll say it again ex93L split and slowly but surely working its way off Honduras into the NW Caribbean, might yet be the one to watch imo.
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Just out of curiousity, are Subtropical storms more or less predictable than purely Tropical storms?
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Quoting mobilegirl81:
Hey stormW! What is the outlook for early to mid September?
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304. JLPR
Quoting Relix:


That should keep it away from the antilles


yep apparently
but the storm hasn't formed yet
so time to watch it and see what it ends up doing
....if it does anything
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Quoting flsky:


I pay $10 for membership. You pay $5?


Grandfathered into the old rate.
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Quoting StormW:


Man...gettin deep here!


Someone has a team??
Baseball??
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
Hey stormW! What is the outlook for early to mid September?
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Quoting StormW:


Man...gettin deep here!


haha yeah, good evening Storm
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298. JLPR
Handle: JLPR
Status: Free Membership
Expiration:
Signed Up: 2007-09-03 20:21:22

the thing is I deleted my account and made it again right after deleting it =\

don't ever play with the delete options =P
I actually joined on 2006 =] not sure about the date thought, I remember we where watching 96L that year when I joined.
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Quoting StormW:


Man...gettin deep here!
I'll bring the shovel if you bring the wheelbarrow.
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Orcasystems -

Thanks!! ...I shouldn't worry because this is not a strong storm, correct?...
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294. Relix
Quoting JLPR:
Ukmet develops the wave that is at the coast of Africa

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 72 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 72 : 11.2N 33.9W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 28.08.2009 11.2N 33.9W
00UTC 29.08.2009 13.4N 36.0W WEAK INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
12UTC 29.08.2009 13.0N 38.8W MODERATE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
00UTC 30.08.2009 14.0N 41.4W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 30.08.2009 15.0N 44.3W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 31.08.2009 15.3N 46.9W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 31.08.2009 16.5N 48.4W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE



That should keep it away from the antilles
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I guess he wanted to do a 2nd update after the hurricane hunters reported back.
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Quoting JLPR:
Ukmet develops the wave that is at the coast of Africa

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 72 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 72 : 11.2N 33.9W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 28.08.2009 11.2N 33.9W
00UTC 29.08.2009 13.4N 36.0W WEAK INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
12UTC 29.08.2009 13.0N 38.8W MODERATE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
00UTC 30.08.2009 14.0N 41.4W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 30.08.2009 15.0N 44.3W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 31.08.2009 15.3N 46.9W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 31.08.2009 16.5N 48.4W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE



Second Major of 2009?
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290. flsky
Quoting JupiterFL:
Handle: JupiterFL
Status: No-Ads Paid Membership
Expiration: 2010-08-26 20:18:40
Signed Up: 2005-08-10 16:20:22

One comment on the $5 membership:
It eliminates the ads and makes everything load on this site much faster. Well worth the money.


I pay $10 for membership. You pay $5?
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Quoting connie1976:
Do you all think that whatever this storm is that it will stay away from south florida?
>>yup, I'm paranoid<<


It is further to the west of track then they thought.. and to add to the paranoia... it went thru the box. But I have my doubts
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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